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油脂油料早报-20251024
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:03
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The USDA's weekly export sales report was suspended due to the federal government shutdown, but the overseas agricultural service will continue to process export sales information, and the missing data will be补发 after federal funds are restored [1] - The expected net increase in US soybean export sales for the week ending October 16, 2025/26 is 60.0 - 200.0 million tons, with similar ranges for corn, wheat, bean meal, and soybean oil [1] - If Indonesia upgrades from B40 to B50, it will require an additional 3 million tons of palm oil, reducing its export supply significantly as it currently exports 24 - 28 million tons annually [1][2] - Global vegetable oil demand in the coming year will rely on sunflower oil as US and Brazilian exportable soybean oil supply is expected to drop from 2.7 million tons in 2024/25 to 1.6 million tons in 2025/26, a 41% decrease [2] - Argentina's soybean product export tax exemption policy has stimulated forward sales, which may weaken its crushing capacity and limit soybean oil exports [2] - Sunflower oil prices remain strong, leading vegetable oil prices, with a price of $1,360 per ton in the European market in mid - October, indicating tight supply [2] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - The USDA's weekly export sales report was suspended due to the federal government shutdown, and the overseas agricultural service will continue to process export sales information. The missing data will be补发 after federal funds are restored [1] - Surveys show expected net increases in US export sales for the week ending October 16: soybeans 60.0 - 200.0 million tons, corn 80.0 - 200.0 million tons, wheat 35.0 - 65.0 million tons, bean meal 15.0 - 45.0 million tons, and soybean oil 0.5 - 2.5 million tons [1] MPOC Forecast - If Indonesia implements the B50 policy, it will need an additional 3 million tons of palm oil for blending, reducing its export supply to 22 million tons or less from the current 24 - 28 million tons annually [1][2] Global Vegetable Oil Supply and Demand - Global vegetable oil demand in the coming year will rely on sunflower oil as US and Brazilian exportable soybean oil supply is expected to drop by 41% from 2.7 million tons in 2024/25 to 1.6 million tons in 2025/26 [2] - Argentina's soybean product export tax exemption policy has stimulated forward sales, which may limit its soybean oil exports in the coming months [2] - Sunflower oil prices remain strong, leading vegetable oil prices, with a price of $1,360 per ton in the European market in mid - October, indicating tight supply [2] Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products in different regions from October 17 - 23, 2025 are provided, including bean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu [11]
油脂油料早报-20250919
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:08
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Conab anticipates Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to rise by 3.6% to 177.67 million tons, with the planting area expanding by 3.7% to 49.08 million hectares; corn production is expected to be 138.28 million tons, and the planting area is estimated at 22,630 tons [1]. - Conab predicts Brazil's 2025/26 soybean exports to reach a record 112.12 million tons, mainly driven by exports to China; corn exports are expected to be 4.65 million tons [1]. - The USDA reports that for the week ending September 11, US 2025/26 market - year soybean export sales net increased by 92.30 million tons, meeting expectations; exports loaded were 83.71 million tons, up 31% from the previous week and 70% from the four - week average [1]. - China's customs data shows that in August, palm oil imports were 340,000 tons (up 16.5% year - on - year), soybean oil imports were 100,000 tons (up 113.9% year - on - year), and rapeseed and mustard oil imports were 140,000 tons (up 18.7% year - on - year) [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Conab's first forecast for the 2025/2026 crop year shows an increase in Brazil's soybean production and planting area, and a slight decrease in corn production; soybean and corn exports are expected to rise [1]. - The USDA's export sales report indicates the situation of US soybean export sales and shipments for the week ending September 11 [1]. - China's customs data reveals the import volume and year - on - year changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed and mustard oil in August and from January to August [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from September 12 to September 18, 2025, are presented, showing price fluctuations [2]. Protein Meal Basis and Oil Basis - Not provided with specific content Oilseed and Oil Futures Price Spreads - Not provided with specific content
油脂油料早报-20250912
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 01:08
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents overnight market information on the trading of US soybeans, soybean meal, and palm oil, as well as the estimated data of US soybean crushing and the production forecast of Brazilian soybeans [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information of US Soybeans and Soybean Meal - From September 1 - 4, US 2025/2026 soybean export sales net increased by 541,100 tons, with a total of 767,000 tons carried over from the 2024/2025 sales. The export shipment as of August 31 was 406,600 tons, and the cumulative export shipment reached 50.1059 million tons, a 13% increase from the previous year. The new sales of US soybeans in the current market year were 1.4957 million tons [1]. - From September 1 - 4, US current - market - year soybean meal export sales net increased by 33,400 tons, a 16% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The next - market - year soybean meal export sales net increased by 324,100 tons. The export shipment of soybean meal was 250,100 tons, a 20% decrease from the previous week and a 12% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The new sales of current - market - year soybean meal were 56,100 tons, and the next - market - year new sales were 325,400 tons [1]. Estimated Data of US Soybean Crushing - Before the release of the NOPA monthly report, analysts estimated that the US soybean crushing volume in August would be 182.857 million bushels, a 6.6% decrease from July but a 15.7% increase from August 2024. The estimated daily crushing volume in August was 5.899 million bushels, the slowest since August last year. The estimated soybean oil inventory held by NOPA members as of August 31 was 1298 million pounds, a 5.8% decrease from the end of July [1]. Production Forecast of Brazilian Soybeans - Conab raised the forecast of Brazil's 2024/2025 soybean production to a record 171.47 million tons, an increase of 1.82 million tons from the August forecast. The export forecast for 2024/2025 was raised by 400,000 tons to 106.65 million tons. Brazilian farmers have started sowing the 2025/2026 soybeans, and the new - year production is expected to exceed 180 million tons [1]. Palm Oil Production in Malaysia - According to SPPOMA, from September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 3.17% month - on - month, with a 2.70% decrease in fresh fruit bunch yield and a 0.09% decrease in oil extraction rate [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from September 5 - 11, 2025, are provided, showing price fluctuations during this period [2].
油脂油料早报-20250911
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 01:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/26 season from September 1 - 4 is expected to be between 40 - 160 million tons, with US soybean meal export sales expected to net increase by 5 - 90 million tons and US soybean oil export sales by 0 - 1.6 million tons [1] - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to decrease by 4.3% to 17.6 million hectares due to farmers choosing to plant other crops [1] - Malaysia's August palm oil inventory reached a two - year high due to strong production, with inventory increasing by 4.18% to 2.2 million tons, production increasing by 2.35% to 1.86 million tons, and exports slightly decreasing by 0.29% to 1.32 million tons [1] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 10 decreased by 1.2% according to ITS and 8.4% according to AmSpec compared to the previous month [1] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - US soybean export sales for the 2025/26 season from September 1 - 4 are expected to net increase by 40 - 160 million tons, soybean meal by 5 - 90 million tons, and soybean oil by 0 - 1.6 million tons [1] - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to decrease by 4.3% to 17.6 million hectares [1] - Malaysia's August palm oil inventory increased by 4.18% to 2.2 million tons, production increased by 2.35% to 1.86 million tons, exports decreased by 0.29% to 1.32 million tons, and domestic consumption increased by over 6% to 490,923 tons [1] - Malaysia's September 1 - 10 palm oil exports decreased by 1.2% according to ITS and 8.4% according to AmSpec [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from September 4 - 10, 2025 are presented in a table [2] Protein Meal Basis - No specific content provided [3] Fatty Oil Basis - No specific content provided [5] Fatty Oil Futures Spread - No specific content provided [7]
油脂油料早报-20250829
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 02:30
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The US soybean meal export sales and shipments showed mixed performance in the week ending August 21, 2025, with current - year sales increasing and shipments decreasing [1]. - The estimated soybean crushing volume in the US in July 2025 is expected to reach a record high for the same period, driven by increased demand for vegetable oil from bio - fuel producers and higher profits [1]. - The soybean planting area in Brazil's Paraná state is expected to expand by 1% in the 2025/26 season, and the yield may increase by 4% [1]. - Canada's rapeseed production is expected to increase by 3.6% in 2025 due to a 5.7% increase in yield, offsetting the 2.0% reduction in the harvesting area [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - US soybean meal export sales: In the week ending August 21, 2025, current - year export sales net increased by 4.73 million tons (up 3% from the previous week and down 34% from the four - week average), and next - year sales net increased by 21.48 million tons. Market expectations were 2.5 - 15 million tons for current - year and 10 - 30 million tons for next - year sales. Export shipments were 19.81 million tons, down 25% from the previous week and 35% from the four - week average [1]. - US soybean crushing volume in July 2025: Expected to be 207.2 million bushels (6.218 million short tons), up 5.1% from June and 7.2% from July 2024, a record high for the same period. The estimated range is 204.8 - 212.0 million bushels, with a median of 207.1 million bushels. The increase is due to increased demand from bio - fuel producers and higher profits [1]. - US soybean oil inventory as of July 31, 2025: Expected to be 1.903 billion pounds, up 0.5% from the end of June and down 5.2% from July 2024. The estimated range is 1.875 - 1.960 billion pounds, with a median of 1.9 billion pounds [1]. - Brazil's Paraná state: The 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to be about 5.8 million hectares, up 1% from the previous year, and the yield may reach about 22 million tons, up 4% [1]. - Canada's rapeseed: The 2025 production is expected to increase by 3.6% to 19.9 million tons, with a 5.7% increase in yield to 41.0 bushels per acre, offsetting a 2.0% reduction in the harvesting area to 21.4 million acres [1]. Spot Prices | Date | Soybean Meal (Jiangsu) | Rapeseed Meal (Guangdong) | Soybean Oil (Jiangsu) | Palm Oil (Guangzhou) | Rapeseed Oil (Jiangsu) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/22 | 2980 | 2540 | 8620 | 9530 | 10010 | | 2025/08/25 | 3010 | 2570 | 8700 | 9520 | 10010 | | 2025/08/26 | 2990 | 2560 | 8670 | 9440 | 10030 | | 2025/08/27 | 2970 | 2550 | 8610 | 9440 | 9970 | | 2025/08/28 | 2960 | 2520 | 8580 | 9350 | 9880 | [2]
油脂油料早报-20250815
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 08:58
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest information on the global oilseeds and oils market, including U.S. export sales, Brazilian production forecasts, and Indian import trends. These data provide a basis for market participants to understand the supply - demand dynamics of the industry [1]. 3. Key Points by Category U.S. Export Sales - For the week ending August 7, U.S. current - market - year soybean export sales net decreased by 37.76 tons, a 181% drop from the previous week and a 235% decrease from the four - week average. Next - year soybean export sales net increased by 113.3 tons. Export shipments were 53.31 tons, a 23% decrease from the previous week but a 26% increase from the four - week average [1]. - For the same week, U.S. current - market - year bean meal export sales net increased by 2.63 tons, an 84% decrease from the previous week and an 86% decrease from the four - week average. Next - year bean meal export sales net increased by 24.67 tons. Export shipments were 36 tons, a 14% increase from the previous week and a 15% increase from the four - week average [1]. Brazilian Production Forecasts - Abiove raised Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast to 170.3 million tons from 169.7 million tons. It also increased the soybean crushing volume forecast to 58.1 million tons from 57.8 million tons and the soybean export forecast to 109.5 million tons from 109 million tons [1]. - The 2024/25 bean meal export forecast was maintained at 23.6 million tons, the soybean oil export forecast at 1.35 million tons. The soybean oil production forecast was increased to 11.65 million tons from 11.6 million tons, and the bean meal production forecast to 44.8 million tons from 44.5 million tons [1]. Indian Import Trends - In July, Indian palm oil imports declined by 10.5% to 855,695 tons due to canceled contracts. Meanwhile, soybean oil imports jumped 36.9% to 492,336 tons, reaching a three - year high. Sunflower oil imports decreased by 7.5% to 200,010 tons [1]. - The increase in soybean oil imports drove the total edible oil imports in July to rise 1.1% to 1.55 million tons, the highest since November last year. Indian 2024/25 soybean oil imports are expected to surge 60% year - on - year to a record 5.5 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices for various oilseeds and oils in different regions (Jiangsu and Guangdong) from August 8 to August 14, 2025, are presented, including those for bean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [4].
油脂油料早报-20250704
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 02:40
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US soybean and soybean meal export sales data for the week ending on the 26th showed significant increases in net sales compared to the previous week and the four - week average, while the export shipments decreased to some extent [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil inventory in a certain month is expected to decline for the first time in four months due to unexpectedly reduced production and strong export demand [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - **Soybean Exports**:民间出口商向未知目的地出口销售22.6万吨大豆(2024/2025市场年度付运);26日止当周,美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售净增46.24万吨,较前一周增加15%,较前四周均值增加62%,下一市场年度净增23.90万吨;当周美豆出口装船25.16万吨,较前一周减少5%,较此前四周均值减少27%;当前市场年度新销售53.32万吨,下一市场年度新销售23.91万吨 [1]. - **Soybean Meal Exports**:民间出口商向未知目的地出口销售19.5万吨豆粕(4.5万吨2024/2025市场年度付运,15万吨2025/2026市场年度付运);26日止当周,美国当前市场年度豆粕出口销售净增30.62万吨,较前一周增加226%,较前四周均值增加69%,下一市场年度净增39.74万吨;当周美豆粕出口装船23.83万吨,较前一周减少15%,较此前四周均值减少8%;当前市场年度新销售35.78万吨,下一市场年度新销售39.74万吨 [1]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**:库存料降至199万吨,较5月减少0.24%;毛棕榈油产量预计环比下降4.04%至170万吨;出口预计增加4.16%至145万吨;国内消费量预计为326,677吨 [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from June 27 to July 3, 2025, showed certain fluctuations [5].
油脂油料早报-20250623
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 01:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the latest overnight market information on oilseeds and oils, including export sales, production estimates, and export volume data from major producing countries, as well as spot prices, basis, and price spreads [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Overnight Market Information - **US Soybean Export Sales**: For the week ending June 12, US current market - year soybean export sales net increased by 53.95 million tons, up 779% from the previous week and 204% from the four - week average, exceeding market expectations. Next market - year export sales net increased by 7.52 million tons. Export shipments were 40.61 million tons, down 10% from the previous week but up 33% from the four - week average [1]. - **Argentine Soybean Production**: The 2024/25 soybean planting area is estimated at 17.8 million hectares, up 0.6% from last month's estimate and 7.2% from the previous year. Production is estimated at 49.9 million tons, up 1.8% from last month's estimate and 3.5% from the previous year [1]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports**: SGS data shows that exports from June 1 - 20, 2025 were 759,881 tons, up 16.66% from the same period last month. ITS data shows exports were 847,695 tons, up 14.3% from the same period last month [1]. - **Canadian Rapeseed Exports**: For the week ending June 15, exports decreased 17% to 131,400 tons. From August 1, 2024 to June 15, 2025, exports were 8.8139 billion tons, up 54.2% from the same period last year. As of June 15, commercial inventory was 117,290 tons [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various oilseeds and oils in different regions from June 16 - 20, 2025 are provided, including those of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu [2]. Others - There are also sections on protein meal basis, oil basis, and oilseed price spreads, but no specific content is provided in the given text [3][6][7].
油脂油料早报-20250606
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 05:19
Group 1: Overnight Market Information - From May 22 - 29, US soybean export sales net increased by 19.79 million tons, with current - year sales net increasing by 19.43 million tons (33% higher than the previous week and 30% lower than the four - week average), and new sales of 20.81 million tons for the current year and 0.35 million tons for the next year. Exports to China had a net decrease of 0.11 million tons. Export shipments were 30.86 million tons (47% higher than the previous week and 8% higher than the four - week average), with 6.5 million tons shipped to China [1]. - From May 22 - 29, US bean meal export sales net increased by 26.49 million tons, with current - year sales net increasing by 25.47 million tons (40% lower than the previous week and 14% lower than the four - week average). New sales were 28.26 million tons for the current year and 1.02 million tons for the next year. Export shipments were 23.85 million tons (12% lower than the previous week and 6% lower than the four - week average) [1]. - Brazil exported 14,099,744.73 tons of soybeans in May, with a daily average of 671,416.42 tons, a 5% increase from the daily average in May last year [1]. - Rosario Grain Exchange and Buenos Aires Exchange stated that Argentina's soybean yield this year is better than expected, but the harvest is delayed. About 88.7% of the soybeans have been harvested, and the 2024/25 harvest is expected to be about 50 million tons [1]. - MPOA data showed that Malaysia's crude palm oil production in May increased by 3.07% month - on - month, with different increases in different regions [1]. Group 2: Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products (soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu) from May 29 to June 5 showed some fluctuations [2]. Group 3: Others - There are protein meal basis and grease basis, but specific data is not provided [3]. - There is information about grease and oil futures spreads, but specific data is not provided [5].
油脂油料早报-20250523
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 08:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The USDA export sales report shows various data on US soybean and soybean meal export sales and shipments, including changes compared to previous weeks and four - week averages [1]. - The Canadian Agriculture and Agri - Food Department (AAFC) adjusts the 2024/25 annual Canadian rapeseed export volume estimate but keeps the year - end inventory estimate unchanged, and also has related estimates for the 2025/26 annual rapeseed [1]. - There are data on import soybean crushing profit, fat import profit, and spot prices of related products, as well as information on protein meal basis, fat basis, and fat and oil product price spreads [1][2][7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 US Soybean Export Sales - For the week ending on the 15th, the net increase in US current - market - year soybean export sales was 30.79 million tons, up 9% from the previous week and down 10% from the four - week average, with a market forecast of 10 - 30 million tons [1]. - The net increase in next - year's soybean export sales was 1.5 million tons, with a market forecast of 9 - 40 million tons [1]. - US soybean export shipments were 25.08 million tons, a market - year low, down 42% from the previous week and 43% from the four - week average [1]. - The new sales of US current - market - year soybean were 31.41 million tons, and next - market - year soybean were 1.5 million tons [1]. 3.2 US Soybean Meal Export Sales - For the week ending on the 15th, the net increase in US current - market - year soybean meal export sales was 35.96 million tons, up 25% from the previous week and 61% from the four - week average, with a market forecast of 10 - 40 million tons [1]. - The net increase in next - year's soybean meal export sales was 2.31 million tons, with a market forecast of 0 - 5 million tons [1]. - US soybean meal export shipments were 24.87 million tons, down 4% from the previous week and 14% from the four - week average [1]. - The new sales of US current - market - year soybean meal were 38.92 million tons, and next - market - year soybean meal were 2.31 million tons [1]. 3.3 Canadian Rapeseed Estimate - The AAFC increased the 2024/25 annual rapeseed export volume estimate to 8.5 billion tons, at least 100 tons higher than the previous estimate, but kept the year - end inventory estimate at 1.3 billion tons [1]. - The 2025/26 annual rapeseed carry - over inventory estimate remains at 2 billion tons, and the estimated 2025/26 annual rapeseed crushing volume is 11 billion tons, lower than last month's estimate of 12 billion tons [1]. 3.4 Spot Price - The report provides spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from May 16th to May 22nd, 2025 [2].