格隆汇12月19日｜凯投宏观在一份报告中表示，日本央行加息的决定并不令人意外，尽管其强硬的信息 表明，未来还会进一步收紧政策。日本央行表示，对日本经济抵御关税不确定性的能力有了更大的信 心，对企业利润预计将保持在高位有了更大的信心。预计，与日本央行的预测相比，即将公布的经济活 动和通胀数据更有可能超出预期。凯投宏观表示，其信心正在增强，预计2027年的最终利率将达到 1.75%，高于市场普遍预期。 ...

荷兰国际集团的Chris Turner在一份报告中称，市场普遍预计瑞典央行将在格林威治时间0830公布的决 议中维持利率在1.75%不变，不过如果该央行上调其利率预测，瑞典克朗可能会获得短暂提振。瑞典央 行9月份的预测显示，政策利率将保持不变，并在2027年和2026年各加息一次。与此同时，丹麦 银行的 分析师预计，如果完整的利率路径与9月份的预测一致，瑞典克朗可能下跌。在该决议公布前，瑞典克 朗走高，欧元兑瑞典克朗最新下跌0.2%，报10.8972瑞典克朗。（智通财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's median forecast indicates that interest rates will reach 3.4% by 2026 and 3.1% by 2027 [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate projections suggest a gradual decline in rates over the next few years [1] - The forecasted rate of 3.4% in 2026 reflects a potential easing of monetary policy [1] - The anticipated 3.1% rate in 2027 indicates a continued trend towards lower interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, Neel Kashkari, suggests that there may be two interest rate cuts this year, with the first potentially occurring in September, while cautioning about the lagging effects of tariffs on inflation [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Interest Rate Predictions - Kashkari has not adjusted his interest rate forecast for 2025 since December of last year [1] - He believes there is a possibility of two rate cuts this year, with the first likely in September [1] - Tariff Impact on Inflation - There is currently insufficient evidence to show that tariffs have impacted prices [1] - Kashkari expresses concern that there may still be a potential impact on inflation later this year due to tariffs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Norwegian central bank predicts that interest rates will fall below 4% by the end of 2025 and approach 3% by the end of 2028, with inflation expected to decline and near 2% by 2028 [1] Interest Rate Forecast - Interest rates are expected to decrease to below 4% by the end of 2025 [1] - By the end of 2028, interest rates are projected to be close to 3% [1] Inflation Expectations - The inflation rate is anticipated to decline and approach 2% by 2028 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that as more data becomes available, the discrepancies in interest rate forecasts will narrow [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring economic data to adjust its interest rate predictions [1] - Powell emphasized the importance of data in shaping future monetary policy decisions [1] - The statement suggests potential shifts in interest rate strategies based on upcoming economic indicators [1]

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on whether the median rate forecast from the Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates one or two rate cuts in 2025, especially as the upcoming meeting is expected to maintain current interest rates [1][2] - The dot plot's predictions are based on economic forecasts that are highly uncertain, and small changes in these predictions can significantly reshape the Federal Reserve's policy narrative [2][3] - The Federal Reserve officials recognize the limitations of the dot plot and may consider reforms to their communication tools, potentially moving away from median predictions to provide a full range of forecasts [1][4] Group 2 - The dot plot's overemphasis reflects the lack of suspense in the current meeting, but this obsession has reached an absurd level given the inherent uncertainty in the economic forecasts [2][3] - A small number of officials adjusting their predictions can lead to significant shifts in the median forecast, which can create confusion when unexpected economic results occur [3][4] - The debate over the dot plot's effectiveness centers on whether it provides transparency or leads to confusion, with some suggesting a compromise of discontinuing the dot plot while still sharing a range of predictions [5][6] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, particularly those from the Trump administration, complicates the Federal Reserve's ability to make accurate predictions, as higher tariffs introduce new inflation risks [6] - The labor market appears slightly weaker than a few months ago, contributing to the challenges in maintaining confidence in rate cut predictions [6]

Core Insights - The focus on the Federal Reserve's "dot plot" reflects uncertainty regarding interest rate predictions for 2025, with market expectations leaning towards no change in rates during the upcoming meeting [1][2] - The dot plot, which represents individual policymakers' predictions for year-end rates, may not accurately reflect economic conditions or the Fed's response to data [1][3] Group 1: Dot Plot Significance - The dot plot's median prediction for rate cuts could significantly influence market narratives, with a potential shift from two cuts to one if just two officials adjust their forecasts [2] - The dot plot has been criticized for creating confusion during unexpected economic conditions, as it cannot fully convey the inherent uncertainties faced by policymakers [3] Group 2: Potential Reforms - There is a growing sentiment among officials to reassess the dot plot's effectiveness as a communication tool, with suggestions to stop publishing it in favor of a broader range of predictions [3][4] - A compromise could involve discontinuing the dot plot while still providing a range of rate predictions and a "central tendency" value, which could mitigate overemphasis on median predictions [4] Group 3: Economic Considerations - Recent tariff policies have introduced variability into the Fed's predictions, with rising import tariffs posing new inflation risks and affecting confidence in rate cut timelines [5] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff levels and labor market conditions has led to a cautious approach in maintaining rate predictions, as any adjustments could misrepresent the rapidly changing economic landscape [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Governor, Hawkesby, indicated that while committee members are satisfied with the interest rate forecasts, there are differences in the timing of these predictions [1] Group 1 - The committee members express satisfaction with the overall interest rate predictions [1] - There is a noted divergence among members regarding the timing of the interest rate changes [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate forecast range is broad enough to avoid bias in the next meeting's actions [1]