投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 8 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：本周，国内动力煤价格维持强势运行，截至 8 月 14 日，秦皇岛港 5500K 动力煤报价 692 元/吨，周环比上涨 18 元/吨，接近 700 元关口。本周以来，国内高温天气蔓延，第三产业和 居民用电需求良好，坑口、港口拉运积极性较高，煤价持续走强。供应方面，8 月 15 日统计局公 布 7 月原煤产量为 3.8 亿吨，同比下降 3.8%，日均产量 1229 万吨；1~7 月全国累计原煤产量 27.8 亿吨，同比增长 3.8%。8 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 8 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 观点参考 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：本周，国内动力煤价格维持强势运行，截至 8 月 14 日，秦皇岛港 5500K 动力煤报价 692 元/吨，周环比上涨 18 元/吨，接近 700 元关口。本周以来，国内高温天气蔓延，第三产业和 居民用电需求良好，坑口、港口拉运积极性较高，煤价持续走强。供应方面，8 月 15 日统计局公 布 7 月原煤产量为 3.8 亿吨，同比下降 3.8%，日均产量 122 ...

宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 8 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：本周，国内动力煤价格维持强势运行，截至 8 月 14 日，秦皇岛港 5500K 动力煤报价 692 元/吨，周环比上涨 18 元/吨，接近 700 元关口。本周以来，国内高温天气蔓延，第三产业和 居民用电需求良好，坑口、港口拉运积极性较高，煤价持续走强。供应方面，8 月 15 日统计局公 布 7 月原煤产量为 3.8 亿吨，同比下降 3.8%，日均产量 1229 万吨；1~7 月全国累计原煤产量 27.8 亿吨，同比增长 3.8%。8 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 8 月 8 日） | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：供应端，7 月底部分煤矿在完成生产目标后暂时停产，煤炭产量短期下滑，但进入 8 月 以后预计迅速恢复。另外，此前国家能源局综合司的煤矿超产整治暂未引起产地安监明显收紧， 主产区煤矿旺季肩负保供职责，产量平稳运行。需求端，国家气候中心发布 8 月气候趋势预测， 显示 8 月全国大部地区气温接近常年同期到偏高，今夏第三产业和居民生活用电将有一定支撑。 库存方面，截至 7 月 31 日，环渤海 9 港煤炭总库存 2484.7 万吨，周环比大幅 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The power coal price is expected to maintain a moderately strong and volatile trend in the near future, but the upside space is limited. The domestic demand for thermal coal is strong during the peak summer period, and the inventory in the middle and lower reaches is gradually depleted, driving the coal price to strengthen slightly. However, the relatively high port inventory still suppresses the rebound of the coal price [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Power Coal Spot - **Supply**: After the National Safety Production Month ended, coal mines with production suspension and restrictions in the main producing areas resumed production one after another after the rectification was completed, leading to a slight increase in the supply of power coal [5]. - **Demand**: Since July, the domestic temperature has further risen, especially in some coastal provinces such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang, where the maximum temperature has exceeded 40°C, resulting in good residential cooling demand during the peak summer period. The National Climate Center predicts that in July 2025, the temperature in most parts of China will be higher than the same period of the previous year, and the precipitation in the southern part of the southwestern region is expected to be more than the same period of the previous year. Among them, the precipitation in most parts of Yunnan will be 20% - 50% more, and there is room for seasonal improvement in hydropower [5]. - **Port Inventory**: As of July 3, the total coal inventory of the 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 27.493 million tons, with a weekly de - stocking of 747,000 tons. It is still at a high level in the same period of the past 5 years, and the sufficient coal inventory in the northern ports continues to suppress the coal price [5].

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The price of domestic thermal coal continued to rebound this week. The supply of medium and low calorific value coal at ports was tight, and its price trend was stronger. The destocking speed of thermal coal slightly slowed down, and the inventory at northern ports remained at the highest level in the past five years, with a good foundation for peak - summer coal consumption. The seasonal support for thermal coal strengthened, and the port coal prices rose across the board. It is expected that the coal price will maintain a strong trend in the short term [5] Group 3 Main varieties price market driving logic - Commodity futures black sector - **品种**: Thermal coal spot - **Intraday view**: Oscillation - **Core logic**: This week, the price of domestic thermal coal continued to rebound. Due to the inverted shipping profit of medium and low calorific value coal at ports before, the supply at ports was tight, and its price trend was stronger. As of June 26, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 28.24 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 460,000 tons. The destocking speed slightly slowed down, and the inventory at northern ports remained at the highest level in the past five years, with a good foundation for peak - summer coal consumption. Overall, the seasonal support for thermal coal strengthened, and the port coal prices rose across the board, especially the low - calorific value coal. With the subsequent rise in temperature, it is expected that the coal price will maintain a strong trend in the short term [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port is expected to remain stable in the short - term. Although the previous supply - guarantee measures have led to sufficient inventory in the industry chain, suppressing the upward space of coal prices, the marginal tightening of supply and the marginal strengthening of demand make it difficult for coal prices to fall [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply Side - Recent safety production and environmental protection requirements during the national safety production month have had a certain impact on coal mine production. Since the end of May, coal mine accidents in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have increased, leading to tighter safety supervision in the main production areas, but with a limited impact on overall output [4]. - In May 2025, the national import of coal and lignite was 36.0401 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7%. Both coal production and imports have started to tighten marginally [4]. 3.2 Demand Side - As of June 5, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 1.718 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 thousand tons per day; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.136 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 33 thousand tons per day [4]. - The "Climate Trend Forecast from June 23 to July 8" released by the National Climate Center shows that during this period, the temperature in most parts of China will be close to or higher than the same period of the year, indicating good support for the demand of thermal coal during the peak summer season [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port remains stable in the short - term as multiple factors are intertwined. Although the previous supply - guarantee work has led to sufficient inventory in the industry chain, suppressing the upside of coal prices, the marginal tightening of supply and strengthening of demand also create strong resistance to price drops [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory 3.1 Price and Market Conditions - The intraday and medium - term view of thermal coal spot is "sideways" [4]. 3.2 Supply Analysis - Recent national safety production month and environmental protection requirements have had a certain impact on coal mine production. Since the end of May, coal mine accidents in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have increased, and safety supervision in major production areas has tightened marginally, but the impact on overall output is limited [4]. - In May 2025, China imported 36.0401 million tons of coal and lignite, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7%. Both thermal coal production and imports are starting to tighten marginally [4]. 3.3 Demand Analysis - As of June 5, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 1.718 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 thousand tons per day; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.136 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 33 thousand tons per day [4]. - The "Climate Trend Forecast from June 23 to July 8" newly released by the National Climate Center shows that during this period, the temperature in most parts of China will be close to or higher than the same period of the year, indicating good support for the demand of thermal coal for peak - summer power generation [4].

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：国内动力煤价格在经历 5 月下旬的短暂企稳后，再次走弱。5 月份，山西等主产区出 现安全事故，6 月进入国家安全生产月后，产地安监和环保影响有所加大，但当前正值迎峰度夏 关键时期，预计对国内煤炭产量整体影响可控。需求方面，6 月 4 日，国家气候中心发布 2025 年 汛期全国气候趋势滚动预测，显示今夏我国降水呈现"北多南少"的特征，其中四川东北部、云 南西部等地降水较常年同期偏多，且大部地区气温偏高。不过，截至 5 月底，国内电厂煤 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic thermal coal price weakened again after a brief stabilization in late May. Although safety supervision and environmental protection impacts in coal - producing areas have increased in June, the overall impact on domestic coal production is expected to be controllable during the peak - summer period. The demand shows that the coal consumption of domestic power plants is still at a low level as of the end of May, and the precipitation this summer is predicted to be "more in the north and less in the south" with high temperatures in most areas. The inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim decreased significantly week - on - week as of June 5 but was still higher year - on - year. Overall, the thermal coal peak season is approaching, port inventories are gradually decreasing from high levels, but the long - term loose pattern has not been reversed, and the possibility of a weak peak season remains high. The coal price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation in the near future. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price and Market Situation - Domestic thermal coal price weakened again after a brief stabilization in late May [4]. 3.2 Supply Side - In June, which is the national safety production month, safety supervision and environmental protection impacts in coal - producing areas have increased, but the overall impact on domestic coal production is expected to be controllable during the peak - summer period [4]. 3.3 Demand Side - On June 4, the National Climate Center predicted that the precipitation this summer in China would be "more in the north and less in the south", with more precipitation in areas such as northeastern Sichuan and western Yunnan compared to the same period of previous years, and high temperatures in most areas. - As of the end of May, the coal consumption of domestic power plants was still at a low level within the year. The daily coal consumption of 8 coastal provinces' power plants was 171.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16.5 million tons; the daily coal consumption of 17 inland provinces' power plants was 280.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35.7 million tons [4]. 3.4 Inventory Side - As of June 5, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2932.3 million tons, a significant week - on - week decrease of 157.4 million tons and 412.6 million tons higher year - on - year [4]. 3.5 Outlook - The thermal coal peak season is approaching, port inventories are gradually decreasing from high levels, but the long - term loose pattern has not been reversed, and the possibility of a weak peak season remains high. The coal price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation in the near future [4].