1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The coal price may continue to rise slightly. The current production has basically recovered, and coal supply remains at a high level. Miners intend to hold up prices. Although it has entered the traditional off - season, the inventory available days are higher than the safety line, and there is no overall restocking pressure. Some imports have shifted to domestic trade, providing some support for coal prices. The non - power industries such as building materials and chemicals have seen a steady increase in the operating rate, and non - power coal consumption has increased [2][3][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs News and Information - The Emergency Management Department requires maintaining a high degree of sensitivity and a strict atmosphere to effectively prevent and resolve major safety risks, and to implement the central safety production assessment and inspection. [6] - Inner Mongolia plans to better coordinate the high - quality development and high - proportion consumption of new energy in 2026. The annual power generation will reach 910 billion kWh, with new energy power generation exceeding 300 billion kWh; the external power transmission will exceed 360 billion kWh, including 100 billion kWh of green power. It will also promote the construction of the power grid and regulation capacity [6] Market Data Tracking - The report presents multiple figures including the spot price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port, the price difference between futures and spot of thermal coal, the Bohai Rim thermal coal index, international coal prices, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port, and the number of anchored ships at Qinhuangdao Port, with data sources from Wind and Baocheng Futures [8][9][10][11][16] Market Outlook - The capacity utilization rate of 462 mines nationwide is 92.9%, a 1.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous week; the daily average output is 5.606 million tons, a 108,000 - ton increase from the previous week. Coal mines in Shanxi maintain normal production mainly for long - term contract shipments, and the coal supply level is basically stable. Most coal mines in Shaanxi maintain normal production and sales, and the overall supply runs smoothly. Coal production in Inner Mongolia is steadily released, and the capacity utilization rate continues to rise [16] - This week, the price of imported thermal coal fluctuated slightly. The price of port thermal coal showed a strong and volatile trend, and most traders' asking prices were firm under cost support [16] - With the gradual rise in temperature, the residential electricity demand has weakened, and the terminal's overall coal inventory available days remain at a safe level, with basically no restocking pressure. The daily consumption of 493 power plants is 4.014 million tons per day, and the on - site coal inventory is 90.49 million tons, both of which have decreased. Attention should be paid to whether non - power demand remains strong [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On March 18, the market sentiment in the northern ports was positive, with strong price - holding intentions from upstream suppliers and a slight improvement in market transactions due to a small amount of downstream tendering and release of rigid demand. Market participants have different views on the future. Some think that high port inventories and rising freight rates will limit price increases, while others believe that international tensions support high energy prices, leading some terminals to turn to domestic trade, and with rising coal prices in major production areas, the market outlook is positive [2]. - From January to February 2026, the national raw coal output was 76,289,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. The average daily output in January - February was 1,293,000 tons, a decrease of 117,000 tons from the previous month and 4,000 tons from the same period last year [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Coal Prices**: The prices of coal in different regions and types have different changes. For example, in terms of origin prices, the price of Shanxi Datong 5500 coal is 580 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 30 yuan/ton; in terms of port prices, the price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 coal is 723 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 45 yuan/ton. The overseas prices of Indonesian FOB Q3800 coal is 59.8 US dollars/ton, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 8.8 US dollars/ton [1]. - **March Long - term Agreement Prices**: The long - term agreement price of port Q5500 coal is 682 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 4 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of thermal coal (based on the spot price of thermal coal in the northern ports) is 0 [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term market for thermal coal has shown positive support, but considering inventory increases and the traditional off - season, the upside space and time for price increases are expected to be limited [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **产地价格**: The price of Shanxi Datong 5500 is 585 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period, 35 yuan higher than last year), Inner Mongolia Ordos 5500 is 526 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan from the previous period, 58 yuan higher than last year), and Shaanxi Yulin 5800 is 592 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan from the previous period, 71 yuan higher than last year) [1]. - **港口价格**: The price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 is 723 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period, 43 yuan higher than last year), Q5000 is 640 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan from the previous period, 43 yuan higher than last year), and Q4500 is 555 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period, 33 yuan higher than last year) [1]. - **海外价格**: The price of Indonesian FOB Q3800 is 59.8 dollars/ton (unchanged from the previous period, 8.8 dollars higher than last year), and Australian FOB Q5500 is 85.8 dollars/ton (unchanged from the previous period, 13.8 dollars higher than last year) [1]. - **March long - term agreement price**: The price of Shanxi Q5500 is 519 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan from the previous period), Shaanxi Q5500 is 462 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan from the previous period), and Mengxi Q5500 is 433 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan from the previous period) [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On March 17, the demand for low - calorie coal inquiries at northern ports increased, mainly to supplement the reduction in imports with domestic trade. Traders' quotes gradually strengthened, and there was a sentiment of hoarding. The demand for inquiries for medium - and high - calorie coal was less than that for low - calorie coal, and the quotes were generally at or below the index [2]. - From January to February 2026, the national raw coal output was 76,289 million tons, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. The average daily output from January to February was 1.293 million tons, a decrease of 117,000 tons from the previous period and 4,000 tons less than the same period last year [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of thermal coal (based on the spot price of thermal coal at northern ports) is - 1 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The upward support for thermal coal is insufficient, and the short - term price will fluctuate within a narrow range [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **产地价格**：The price of Shanxi Datong 5500 is 603 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous period and 45 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Inner Mongolia Ordos 5500 is 544 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period and up 59 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Shaanxi Yulin 5800 is 602 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous period and 45 yuan/ton from the same period last year [1] - **港口价格**：The price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 is 753 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period and up 67 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Q5000 is 672 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period and up 80 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Q4500 is 584 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period and up 61 yuan/ton from the same period last year [1] - **海外价格**：The price of Indonesian FOB Q3800 is 61 dollars/ton, up 0.7 dollars/ton from the previous period and 10 dollars/ton from the same period last year; the price of Australian FOB Q5500 is 86.1 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period and up 10.1 dollars/ton from the same period last year [1] - **2月长协价格**：The price of port Q5500 is 680 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the previous period and 11 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Shanxi Q5500 is 517 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous period; the price of Shaanxi Q5500 is 461 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous period; the price of Western Inner Mongolia Q5500 is 431 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous period [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of thermal coal (based on the spot price of thermal coal at northern ports) is 0 [2] 3.3 Macro and Industry News - On March 3, the market of northern ports was sluggish, with weak upward momentum in quotes. Some high - sulfur coal varieties had quotes below the index, and overall trading was limited. With the resumption of production in coal mines and the recovery of shipments, port inventories increased. Some early profit - taking traders were more willing to sell to realize profits, while downstream demand was low and sales were difficult. Considering the price inversion of imported coal and the tense international situation, the price is not likely to fall or the decline will be limited. In the imported thermal coal market, the ocean freight for imports soared, increasing costs [2] - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) set the domestic market obligation (DMO) coal supply target for 2026 at 247.9 million tons, slightly lower than the actual supply of 254 million tons in 2025. Bloomberg reported that the preliminary coal production target for Indonesia in 2026 is 733 million tons, but this figure will be adjusted according to production cuts [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View - The price of thermal coal at the origin shows a mixed trend with insufficient upward momentum. It is expected that the price will be mainly in a sideways shock in the short - term, and will maintain a narrow - range shock near the Two Sessions due to the strong wait - and - see atmosphere [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The current prices, month - on - month and year - on - year changes of thermal coal in different production areas (Shanxi Datong, Inner Mongolia Ordos, Shaanxi Yulin), ports (Qinhuangdao Port), overseas (Indonesia, Australia) and February long - term agreement prices are provided [1] - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 2, the market sentiment in the northern ports was average. Upstream supply increased, downstream demand was poor, and the price increase momentum was insufficient. However, the high price of imported coal supported the domestic market, and the price decline was also blocked. The thermal coal market at the origin showed a mixed trend. Some coal mines had good shipments, while some coal mines with high previous price increases faced sales pressure and price corrections [1] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of thermal coal (based on the spot price of thermal coal in northern ports) is 1 [1]

Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core观点 - In February 2026, the domestic thermal coal price increased slightly. As of February 24th, the price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port reported by CCTD was 724 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 33 yuan/ton. The coal market currently has a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Although the medium- to long-term loose supply pattern of thermal coal has not been completely reversed, and the support from thermal coal demand will gradually weaken in March, some downstream enterprises may replenish their stocks in advance due to the spring inspection of the Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway and the disruptions in Indonesian coal supply, which will provide some support to coal prices. It is expected that thermal coal prices will maintain a narrow range in March and may show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend [3][6][64]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review 1.1 Price Review - In February, domestic thermal coal prices rose slightly. As of February 24th, the 5500K thermal coal price at Qinhuangdao Port reported by CCTD was 724 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 33 yuan/ton. In the international market, the prices of major international thermal coal indices were strong in February. As of the week of February 20th, the European ARA port coal price index was reported at $95.88/ton, flat month-on-month and 19.6% lower than the same period last year; the Newcastle NEWC6000 index was quoted at $117.4/ton, a month-on-month increase of $6.14/ton and 5.5% higher than the same period last year; the South African Richards Bay RB index was reported at $85.25/ton, flat month-on-month and 14.9% lower than the same period last year [9][10]. 1.2 Futures-Spot Price Difference - As of February 24th, the main contract of Zhengzhou coal was $74.4/ton higher than the quoted price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port [18]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Supply Side 2.1.1 Origin Situation - In December 2025, the national raw coal output was 437 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%, but the absolute output was still high. The total national raw coal output in 2025 was 4.832 billion tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.2%. In February, before the Spring Festival holiday, the scope of coal mine shutdowns in the main producing areas continued to expand, and state-owned large mines also maintained cautious production under stricter safety supervision. After the Spring Festival, due to the approaching of the National Two Sessions, some coal mines were cautious in production, and the recovery of coal output was slow [21]. 2.1.2 Import Volume - In December 2025, China imported 58.6 million tons of coal and lignite, setting a new monthly high for the year, a month-on-month increase of 33.0% and a year-on-year increase of 11.9%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import volume was 490.27 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%. In the first 6 weeks of 2026 (as of February 9th), China's total marine coal imports were 38.088 million tons, equivalent to an average daily import volume of 907,000 tons, a 6.05% increase compared to the level of 855,000 tons/day in the same period last year. As of February 11th, the total customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port between China and Mongolia was 42,000 vehicles, a significant increase of 42.5% compared to the same period in 2025 [29]. 2.2 Intermediate Link Transportation 2.2.1 Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway - In January 2026, the Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway completed a cargo transportation volume of 31.28 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with an average daily transportation volume of 1.009 million tons. As of February 24th, the railway had completed a cargo transportation volume of 23.6754 million tons, a 1.7% decrease compared to the same period in January, equivalent to an average daily transportation volume of 986,500 tons [35]. 2.2.2 Bohai Rim Ports - In January 2026, the total railway coal inbound volume of the seven major ports in the Bohai Rim was 43.339 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.65%, equivalent to an average daily inbound volume of 1.398 million tons. As of February 25th, the cumulative inbound volume of the seven ports in the Bohai Rim was 35.968 million tons, equivalent to an average daily inbound volume of 1.4387 million tons. In terms of outbound volume, the total outbound coal volume of the seven major ports in the Bohai Rim in January was 46.303 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.05%, equivalent to an average daily outbound volume of 1.4936 million tons. As of February 25th, the cumulative outbound volume of the seven ports was 36.503 million tons, equivalent to an average daily outbound volume of 1.4601 million tons. As of February 24th, the total coal inventory of the 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 23.8 million tons, a month-on-month inventory reduction of 2.204 million tons, and 1.932 million tons less than the inventory after the Spring Festival last year [38][39]. 2.2.3 Shipping Situation - In February, the domestic and international shipping markets showed different trends. The international dry bulk market fluctuated within a narrow range. As of February 25th, the BDI index closed at 2,121 points, a month-on-month increase of 19.2% and a year-on-year increase of 104.1%. In the domestic shipping market, as of February 25th, the CBCFI index closed at 589.92 points, a month-on-month decrease of 13.1% and a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [44][45]. 2.3 Demand Side 2.3.1 Total Social Electricity Consumption - In December 2025, the total social electricity consumption was 908 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. In 2025, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 1.03682 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. From mid-to-late February, the domestic temperature was relatively warm, and during the Spring Festival, industrial and commercial electricity consumption declined, causing the daily coal consumption of power plants to reach a low point for the year. After the Spring Festival, although industrial electricity consumption gradually recovered, the peak of residential electricity consumption had passed, and the seasonal decline window was approaching, weakening the support for thermal coal demand [49][51]. 2.3.2 Power Generation Structure - In December 2025, the electricity generation of above-scale industrial enterprises was 858.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%; the average daily electricity generation was 27.7 billion kWh. From January to December, the electricity generation of above-scale industrial enterprises was 9.7159 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. In December, the decline in thermal power generation of above-scale industrial enterprises narrowed, while the growth rates of hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power generation slowed down [52]. 2.3.3 Non-Electric Coal Demand - From January to December 2025, the national real estate development investment was 8.2788 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%. In December, the national cement output was 144.164 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%; the crude steel output was 68.1774 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%; the refined methanol output was 9.0736 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%. Affected by the Spring Festival in February, the non-electric coal demand and industrial and commercial electricity consumption of non-electric industries contracted seasonally and will gradually recover after the Spring Festival. However, due to the National Two Sessions, some high-energy-consuming and high-polluting industries will be cautious in resuming production, and the non-electric demand for thermal coal will remain weak in the short term [57][59]. Chapter 3: Conclusion - The current coal market has a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Although the medium- to long-term loose supply pattern of thermal coal has not been completely reversed, and the support from thermal coal demand will gradually weaken in March, some downstream enterprises may replenish their stocks in advance due to the spring inspection of the Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway and the disruptions in Indonesian coal supply, which will provide some support to coal prices. It is expected that thermal coal prices will maintain a narrow range in March and may show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend [66].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The core logic is that the supply side of thermal coal is the main focus of future market games. Besides the potential positive risks of the domestic "anti - involution policy", the coal export quota of Indonesia is also an important uncertain factor. Without significant changes in the supply side, the supply - demand pattern of China's thermal coal may remain loose, and coal prices may maintain low - level operation [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time Cycle Explanation - Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month [1] 3.2 Price Fluctuation Calculation and Classification - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, the starting price is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price of the current day to calculate the price change [2] - A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakly oscillating, an increase of 0 - 1% is considered strongly oscillating, and an increase of more than 1% is considered strong. The concepts of strongly/weakly oscillating only apply to intraday views, and there is no distinction for short - term and medium - term views [3][4] 3.3 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - For thermal coal spot, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillation". The core logic is that the supply side of thermal coal is the main focus of future market games. The domestic "anti - involution policy" and Indonesia's coal export quota are important factors. Without significant supply - side changes, the supply - demand pattern of China's thermal coal may remain loose, and coal prices may stay at a low level [1][5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic thermal coal price stabilized and slightly increased this week. As of February 5th, the quotation of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 692 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton. The current situation is in the critical period of peak - winter demand. High daily coal consumption of power plants across the country drives inventory depletion in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain. However, the thermal coal production is running smoothly, and the market still has a bearish long - term outlook, which suppresses coal prices at a low level [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price and Market Situation - The price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 692 yuan/ton as of February 5th, with a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market Driving Factors - Positive factor: High daily coal consumption of power plants across the country during the peak - winter demand period drives inventory depletion in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain [4]. - Negative factor: Stable thermal coal production and the market's bearish long - term outlook on the fundamentals suppress coal prices [4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The short - term and medium - term view of thermal coal is "oscillation" [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For the short - term, medium - term, and intraday of thermal coal spot, the view is "oscillation". The core logic is that during the peak winter period, high daily coal consumption in national power plants drives inventory reduction in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain. However, stable coal production and a bearish long - term market outlook suppress coal prices at a low level. [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The core logic is that the peak demand season supports a slight increase in port coal prices. [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - The reference view of thermal coal spot is "oscillation". As of February 5, 2026, the quotation of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port is 692 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton. High daily coal consumption in power plants drives inventory reduction, but stable production and a bearish long - term outlook keep coal prices low. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - On February 9, the trading in the northern port market was sluggish, with upstream quotes slightly rising. The price center of transaction prices moved up slightly. Some market participants believe that the continuous low port shipping and the weakened price advantage of imported coal may prompt some terminals to turn to domestic coal procurement, supporting the market. It is expected that the port prices will remain stable and slightly strong before the festival [2]. - Due to the expected production cut in Indonesia, the tender price of imported thermal coal has increased [2]. - On February 9, it was reported that some leading mines in Indonesia had their RKAB fully approved, and the approval results of other mines were expected to be announced successively. Affected by market sentiment, the quotes for forward futures contracts from miners have risen significantly. The current market quote for Q3800 large - ships is 54 - 56 US dollars per ton, and the FOB quote of some large mines for Q3800 has reached 60 - 61 US dollars per ton, which is different from the market price. Most traders are on the sidelines. Although the tender price of domestic power plants has also increased, traders' enthusiasm for participation has decreased due to high uncertainties in the future market [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Origin Prices**: The price of Shanxi Datong 5500 is 567 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period and 29 yuan/ton lower than the same period last year; the price of Inner Mongolia Ordos 5500 is 522 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period and 24 yuan/ton lower than the same period last year; the price of Shaanxi Yulin 5800 is 598 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period and 6 yuan/ton higher than the same period last year [1]. - **Port Prices**: The price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 is 697 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous period and 45 yuan/ton lower than the same period last year; the price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5000 is 617 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous period and 35 yuan/ton lower than the same period last year; the price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q4500 is 534 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous period and 44 yuan/ton lower than the same period last year [1]. - **Overseas Prices**: The FOB price of Indonesian Q3800 is 53.5 US dollars/ton, up 1.5 US dollars/ton from the previous period and 3.5 US dollars/ton higher than the same period last year; the FOB price of Australian Q5500 is 80 US dollars/ton, up 4.1 US dollars/ton from the previous period and 1 US dollar/ton higher than the same period last year [1]. - **February Long - term Agreement Prices**: The price of port Q5500 is 680 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the previous period and 11 yuan/ton lower than the same period last year; the price of Shanxi Q5500 is 517 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous period; the price of Shaanxi Q5500 is 461 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous period; the price of Western Inner Mongolia Q5500 is 431 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous period [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of thermal coal (based on the spot price of thermal coal in the northern port) is 1 [2].