今年以来，动力煤价格先抑后扬，上半年一路走低，下半年强势反弹。以秦皇岛港5500大卡的动力煤为 例，7月1日价格为621元/吨，到11月12日一度涨到834元/吨，四个多月里涨幅达34.3%，让不少煤炭企 业松了口气。 但好景不长，834元/吨的价格高点只撑了大概12天，煤价便掉头下行，12月3日跌破800元/吨，此后继 续走低。 卓创资讯煤炭分析师赵丽告诉《华夏时报》记者，"11月下旬以来，国内动力煤价格持续下行，截至12 月10日，秦皇岛港Q5500大卡动力煤平仓价格为778元/吨，较11月下旬下降52元/吨，降幅达6.27%。" 旺季不旺 "动力煤市场呈现出'旺季不旺'特征。"上海钢联煤焦事业部动力煤分析师韩雅娟对记者表示，自11月下 旬至12月11日，煤价连续下探15天。截至12月10日北方港Q5500报770元/吨，Q5000报679元/吨，Q4500 报590元/吨，累计下调60—68元/吨。 韩雅娟认为，推动此次价格下滑的核心因素主要是产量超预期和日耗偏低。国内煤炭产能在政策调控下 稳步释放，前期因安全检查、环保督查等因素受限的产能逐步恢复生产，加之整体偏暖的气候导致供暖 用电峰值滞后，火电耗煤 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 12 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：12 月初，主产区煤矿维持正常产销，贸易商拉运态度较为谨慎，但北港煤炭库存在近 期依然快速回升，显示终端观望情绪较浓。12 月 4 日国家气候中心发布 12 月气候趋势预测报告， 显示 12 月期间有 4 轮中等及弱冷空气过程，国内南方城市取暖需求或在 12 月底至 1 月期间进入 旺季模式。库存方面，据 iFind 统计，截至 12 月 3 日，环渤海 9 港动力煤总库存 2729.7 万吨， 月环比大幅累库 405. ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 12 月 2 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 动力煤现货 | | | | 震荡 | 下游观望情绪渐浓，港口煤价继 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 续走低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知行合一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 上 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The reference view for thermal coal spot is to oscillate. The coal price of 5500K is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating operation. The supply improvement of thermal coal is limited, while the demand may seasonally strengthen from mid - December. Terminal user procurement demand will continuously support the coal price [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Market Conditions - In mid - November, affected by the cold wave, the domestic temperature dropped sharply, with a cumulative cooling amplitude of up to 20°C in some coastal areas. The daily consumption of thermal coal in December will gradually strengthen. As of November 20, the total inventory of thermal coal at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 25.883 million tons, with a monthly cumulative inventory of 1.775 million tons and 2.916 million tons lower than the same period last year [4] Market Driving Factors - Previously, the replenishment demand of coastal terminals and low port inventory were important drivers for the strengthening of coal prices. As the ports start to accumulate inventory, downstream resistance to high - priced coal sources increases, market games intensify, and port coal prices stabilize [4]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 11 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 核心逻辑：11 月中旬，受寒潮冲击，国内气温骤降，沿海局部地区累计降温幅度达 20℃，旺季到 来 12 月电煤日耗将逐渐走强。库存方面，iFind 数据显示，截至 11 月 20 日，环渤海 9 港动力煤 总库存 2588.3 万吨，月环比累库 177.5 万吨，较去年同期库存偏低 291.6 万吨。此前，沿海终 端补库需求以及港口库存偏低是支撑煤价走强的重要驱动，而随着港口开始累库，下游对高价煤 源的抵触情绪增多，市场博弈加剧，带动港口煤价企稳。整体来看，动力煤供应 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report predicts that the price of 5500K thermal coal will maintain a strong - oscillating trend. Terminal user procurement demand will continue to support coal prices as supply improvement is limited and demand is expected to seasonally strengthen from mid - December, with port inventories being moderately balanced [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price and View Reference - For thermal coal spot, the short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating". The core logic is that terminal procurement supports high - level oscillations in port coal prices [1]. 3.2 Price Driving Logic - In mid - November, affected by the cold wave, domestic temperatures dropped sharply, with a cumulative cooling of up to 20°C in some coastal areas. Coal consumption for power generation is expected to gradually increase in December. As of November 20, the total inventory of thermal coal at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 25.883 million tons, a monthly cumulative increase of 1.775 million tons and 2.916 million tons lower than the same period last year. With port inventories starting to accumulate, downstream resistance to high - priced coal sources has increased, but overall, supply improvement is limited and demand may strengthen seasonally, leading to a strong - oscillating trend in coal prices [4].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The reference view for the day and medium - term of thermal coal spot is "oscillation". The domestic thermal coal price strengthened again after a short - term stabilization. As of November 6, the quotation of 5500K at Qinhuangdao Port was 799 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 31 yuan. Supply contraction expectations and downstream replenishment expectations support the coal price to run strongly. Attention should be paid to the strength of the peak season of thermal coal from this winter to next spring [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - side - In the first week of November, the production of main - producing area coal mines was generally stable, but the supply was still lower than the same period last year. After the safety production inspection team entered in November, there was still some pressure on the recovery of thermal coal supply. In terms of imports, in October, China imported 4173.7 million tons of coal and lignite, a decrease of 426.6 million tons from the previous month [4] Demand - side - As of the period of October 30, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 1.806 million tons, basically flat week - on - week; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.335 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 192,000 tons/day. The peak season of thermal coal demand has not started [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The reference view for power coal is to oscillate. The supply contraction expectation and downstream replenishment expectation support the coal price to run strongly. Attention should be paid to the strength of the peak season for thermal coal from this winter to next spring [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price and Market Conditions - As of November 6, the quotation of 5500K at Qinhuangdao Port was 799 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 31 yuan [5] Supply Side - In the first week of November, the production of main - producing area coal mines was generally stable, and the supply was still lower than the same period last year. After the safety production inspection team entered in November, there was still some pressure on the recovery of power coal supply. In October, China imported 4173.7 million tons of coal and lignite, a decrease of 426.6 million tons from the previous month [5] Demand Side - As of the period of October 30, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 1.806 million tons, basically flat week - on - week; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.335 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 192,000 tons/day. The peak season for thermal coal demand has not started [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The domestic thermal coal price has strengthened again after a brief stabilization. Supply contraction expectations and downstream restocking expectations support the coal price to run strongly. The subsequent focus is on the strength of the peak season for thermal coal from this winter to next spring [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Price Information**: As of November 6, the quotation of 5500K at Qinhuangdao Port was 799 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 31 yuan [4]. - **Supply Side**: In the first week of November, the production of main - producing area coal mines was generally stable, and the supply was still lower than the same period last year. After the safety production inspection team entered in November, there was still some pressure on the recovery of thermal coal supply. In October, China imported 4173.7 million tons of coal and lignite, a decrease of 426.6 million tons from the previous month [4]. - **Demand Side**: As of the period ending October 30, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 1.806 million tons, basically flat week - on - week; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.335 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 192,000 tons per day. The peak season for thermal coal demand has not started [4]. - **Overall Situation**: The supply contraction expectation and downstream restocking expectation support the coal price to run strongly [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The optimistic sentiment continues, and port coal prices are operating strongly. The supply contraction expectation and downstream replenishment expectation support the coal price to run strongly. Attention should be paid to the strength of the peak season of thermal coal from this winter to next spring [1][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs - **Price and Market Conditions**: As of November 6, the quotation of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 799 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 31 yuan. The domestic thermal coal price strengthened again after a brief stabilization [4]. - **Supply Side**: In the first week of November, the production of main - producing area coal mines was generally stable, and the supply was still lower than the same period last year. After the safety production inspection team entered in November, there was still some pressure on the recovery of thermal coal supply. In October, China imported 4173.7 million tons of coal and lignite, a decrease of 426.6 million tons from the previous month [4]. - **Demand Side**: As of the period of October 30, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 1.806 million tons, basically flat week - on - week; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.335 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 192000 tons per day. The peak season of thermal coal demand has not started [4].