AJ Bell投资专家拉斯•莫尔德、丹尼•休森和丹•科茨沃思表示："一些人认为7月份非农的数据和修正意 味着美国经济已开始走软。人们最开始会把八月份数据与7月份初值作比较，但关注焦点将迅速转移到 对6月和7月数据的进一步修正上。考虑到特朗普的关税声明带来的不确定性，以及延长最后期限和谈判 的方式，美国企业在第二季度不愿做出重大的就业或投资决定，这是完全可以理解的。因此，随着贸易 协议的达成、最终关税水平的确定，以及企业对新世界的面貌有了清晰的认识，这些数字可能会在第三 和第四季度迅速回升。" ...

Core Insights - Australia's unemployment rate decreased to 4.2% in July 2025, down from 4.3% in June, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point decline [1] - The number of employed individuals in Australia increased by approximately 0.2% month-on-month and 1.8% year-on-year, reaching 14.6414 million [1] - The number of unemployed individuals decreased by about 1.5% month-on-month but increased by 3.1% year-on-year, totaling 649,000 [1] Employment Data Summary - The monthly hours worked increased by 0.3%, while the underemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 5.9% [1] - Trend data indicates that the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, with a month-on-month employment increase of approximately 0.2% [1] - Year-on-year employment growth was 2%, aligning with the population growth rate [1] Employment Composition - Full-time employment rose by 60,000 in July, contributing positively to overall employment growth [1] - Part-time employment saw a decrease of 36,000, which negatively impacted the total employment figures [1] - The labor statistics supervisor noted that the employment growth rate has been declining in recent months despite being higher than the population growth rate for most of the past year [1]

Core Insights - Australia's unemployment rate decreased to 4.2% in July 2025, down from 4.3% in June, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point drop [1] - The number of employed persons increased by approximately 0.2% month-on-month and 1.8% year-on-year, reaching 14.6414 million [1] - The number of unemployed persons decreased by about 1.5% month-on-month but increased by 3.1% year-on-year, totaling 649,000 [1] Employment Data Summary - The monthly hours worked increased by 0.3%, and the underemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.9% [1] - Trend data shows the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, with a month-on-month employment increase of about 0.2% and a 1% rise in unemployed persons [1] - Monthly hours worked saw a slight increase of approximately 0.1%, with the underemployment rate unchanged at 5.9% [1] Employment Composition - Full-time employment rose by 60,000 in July, while part-time employment fell by 36,000, impacting overall employment growth [1] - Over the past year, the year-on-year growth in employment numbers has consistently outpaced population growth, although recent months have shown a decline in employment growth [1] - The year-on-year employment growth in July was 2%, aligning with the population growth rate [1]

Market Overview - The Japanese stock market opened high on August 13, with the Nikkei 225 index rising over 1% and surpassing the 43,000 points mark [3][4] - The Nikkei 225 index reached a current value of 43,042.48, up by 324.36 points or 0.76% [4] - The Tokyo Stock Exchange index also increased, setting a new historical high [5] Individual Stocks Performance - Notable individual stocks such as Sony, Subaru, and Toyota all saw gains exceeding 2% [7] - Sony: Current price 4,084.0, up 2.30%, market cap 25.12 trillion [7] - Subaru: Current price 3,131.0, up 2.69%, market cap 2.2952 trillion [7] - Toyota: Current price 2,916.5, up 2.15%, market cap 46.07 trillion [7] Economic Indicators - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose by 1.5 basis points to 1.515% [8] - Japan's wholesale price index (CGPI) for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, a slowdown from the previous month's 2.9% [8] - The import price index in yen terms decreased by 10.4% year-on-year in July, compared to a 12.2% decline in June [8] South Korean Market Update - The KOSPI composite index opened with a rise of over 1% but later experienced fluctuations [9] - South Korea's adjusted unemployment rate for July was reported at 2.5%, slightly better than the expected 2.6% [11] - Employment numbers in South Korea increased by 171,000 year-on-year in July, marking the second consecutive month with job growth exceeding 100,000 [11]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: Focus on the economic outlook as Federal Reserve officials, including Waller and Daly, are scheduled to speak on July 11, 2025 [2] - Key Point 2: Key economic data releases from the UK include May GDP, manufacturing output, trade balance, and industrial output, all set to be announced at 14:00 [2] - Key Point 3: France's final CPI for June will be released at 14:45, while Switzerland's consumer confidence index for June will be available at 15:00 [2] Group 2 - Key Point 1: The IEA will publish its monthly oil market report at 16:00, which may provide insights into global oil supply and demand trends [2] - Key Point 2: Canada's employment numbers for June will be released at 20:30, which could impact market sentiment regarding the Canadian economy [2] - Key Point 3: The total number of oil rigs in the US will be reported for the week ending July 11 at 01:00 the following day, indicating activity levels in the oil sector [2]

Key Points - The article highlights important financial data and events to be monitored on July 2, 2025, including U.S. API crude oil inventory and Eurozone unemployment rate [1] - It lists specific times for the release of various economic indicators, such as U.S. Challenger job cuts and ADP employment figures [1] - The article emphasizes the significance of EIA crude oil inventory data, including Cushing and strategic petroleum reserve inventories, which are crucial for understanding market dynamics [1]

Employment Statistics - In March 2025, total employment across all covered industries was 2,714,400, a decrease of 0.5% or 14,500 jobs compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The most significant employment increases were observed in the accommodation services sector (4.0% or 1,500 jobs), human health services (3.9% or 6,000 jobs), and real estate (3.7% or 5,100 jobs) [2] - Conversely, notable employment declines occurred in the retail sector (-4.6% or -11,100 jobs), wholesale trade (-3.4% or -1,700 jobs), information and communications (-3.3% or -3,600 jobs), and food services (-2.8% or -6,300 jobs) [2] Job Vacancy Statistics - As of March 2025, there were 55,170 job vacancies in private institutions, a decrease of 27% or 20,010 vacancies compared to the previous year [1][3] - The education sector accounted for 5,660 vacancies, followed by professional and business services (5,050), accommodation and social work services (4,950), food services (4,860), and financial and insurance services (4,660) [3] - Significant reductions in job vacancies were noted in transportation, warehousing, postal and courier services (-5,080 or -58%), human health services (-2,760 or -43%), and professional and business services (-1,670 or -25%) [3] Seasonally Adjusted Statistics - Seasonally adjusted figures indicated a slight increase of less than 0.05% in total employment and a decrease of 7.3% in total job vacancies when comparing March 2025 to December 2024 [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Canada's employment numbers for May increased by 0.88 thousand, which is better than the expected decrease of 1.25 thousand and an improvement from the previous value of 0.74 thousand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming release of adjusted non-farm payroll data and unemployment rates for May in the United States, along with average hourly earnings on a monthly and yearly basis, is anticipated to provide insights into the labor market dynamics and economic health [1] Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May is expected to be released shortly, which will include adjustments that could impact market perceptions [1] - The unemployment rate for May will also be disclosed, offering a critical indicator of employment trends [1] - Average hourly earnings data, both on a monthly and yearly basis, will be published, which is essential for understanding wage growth and inflationary pressures [1] Group 2 - Canada’s employment figures for May are set to be announced, which will provide additional context for North American labor market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Dallas Federal Reserve President Logan emphasizes the importance of monitoring employment levels that exceed the maximum sustainable capacity, suggesting a need for careful assessment of labor market conditions [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve should focus on achieving inflation targets rather than being overly concerned with past performance that did not meet those targets [1] - The policy framework of the Federal Reserve should operate under a variety of hypothetical scenarios to ensure adaptability and effectiveness [1]