瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.11.28」 「 周度要点小结」 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场窄幅波动。截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂至1600-1640元/吨， 均价环比上涨5元/吨。短时工厂将挺价为主，行情暂时僵持观望，不排除成交重心继续小幅上移。 行情展望：部分装置检修使得国内尿素产量小幅下降，下周预计4家企业装置计划停车、4家停车 企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到企业的短时故障，产量预计小幅波动。近日东北储备需求采购较 为集中，但随着前期适当的补充，采购量或有所放缓。复合肥开工环比提升，企业陆续排产冬储 肥，预计短期复合肥产能利用率稳中有升。随着新一批配额的落地，出口需求逐渐增量。近期因 储备需求的继续推进，复合肥等下游终端补仓影响，以东北、华北为主要区域企业出货加快，尿 素企业库存继续下降，考虑到储备需求推进以及部分出口发运预期，短期尿素库存仍有小幅去库 趋势。 策略建议： UR2601合约短线预计在1650-1700区间波动。 「 期货市场情况」 目录 1、 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when it is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - The pre - holiday stocking sentiment in the urea market is difficult to sustain, and attention should be paid to the dynamic changes in exports. The domestic spot market of urea sees manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders. Although the transaction volume has improved after prices in Shandong and Henan fell below previous lows, the sustainability is weak. Domestic demand is weak, and the inventory in urea factories continues to accumulate. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply and demand of urea remain relatively loose. The export side still has a significant impact on the sentiment of urea prices. The export window period in September is ongoing, and the export rhythm is accelerating [1][2] Section Summaries Price and Spread - Urea futures prices: The urea main contract closed at 1669 yuan/ton (- 5). Spot prices: The market price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1610 yuan/ton (+ 0), in Shandong was 1600 yuan/ton (- 10), and in Jiangsu was 1600 yuan/ton (- 20). The price of small - sized anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis of urea in Shandong was - 59 yuan/ton (+ 5), in Henan was - 59 yuan/ton (+ 5), and in Jiangsu was - 49 yuan/ton (+ 5). Urea production profit was 70.0 yuan/ton (- 10.0), and export profit was 1069.6 yuan/ton (- 88.4) [1] Upstream Supply - As of September 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 85.58% (unchanged). The urea production is running at a high level [1][2] Downstream Demand - As of September 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 35.27% (- 3.36%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.58% (+ 3.8%), and the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 6.71 days (+ 0.5). The domestic demand for urea is weak. Industrial demand for compound fertilizers shows low enthusiasm for purchasing, with sporadic purchases at low prices, and melamine has rigid - demand purchases [1][2] Urea Inventory - As of September 28, 2025, the in - factory inventory of enterprises was 121.8 million tons (+ 5.3), and the port inventory was 49.6 million tons (- 2.0). The in - factory inventory of urea continues to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia [1][2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report recommends paying attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract of urea futures. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and the valuation being relatively cheap. There are two potential upward drivers for urea prices in the future: on the supply - side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - aged production facilities (old facilities over 20 years account for about 20% and the current comprehensive operating rate is close to 80% with limited idle capacity); on the demand - side, there is an expectation of improved exports, especially in September - October, given the easing relationship between China and India. Therefore, the space for further decline of urea prices is limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Urea Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On September 24, UR01 closed at 1673 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 0.90% from September 23; UR05 closed at 1724 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.64%; UR09 closed at 1745 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.63% [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: In Shandong, it was 1610 yuan/ton with no change; in Shanxi, 1490 yuan/ton with no change; in Henan, it dropped 10 yuan to 1610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%; in Hebei, 1650 yuan/ton with no change; in Northeast China, 1660 yuan/ton with no change; in Jiangsu, 1620 yuan/ton with no change [1]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 114 yuan/ton on September 24, down 11 yuan from September 23. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 51 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [1]. 3.3 Upstream and Downstream Prices - **Upstream Costs**: The price of anthracite coal in Henan was 1000 yuan/ton with no change, and in Shanxi, it was 880 yuan/ton with no change [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong was 2930 yuan/ton with no change, in Henan, it was 2520 yuan/ton with no change. The price of melamine in Shandong was 5017 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu, it was 5200 yuan/ton with no change [1]. 3.4 Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main contract 2601 of urea futures was 1662 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1681 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1658 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1673 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1672 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 300119 lots [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The report recommends paying attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and the valuation being relatively cheap. There are two possible upward drivers for urea prices in the future: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - fashioned urea plants, and on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports. Therefore, the space for further decline in urea prices is limited [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On September 23, the closing prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 were 1658 yuan/ton, 1713 yuan/ton, and 1734 yuan/ton respectively. The UR01 decreased by 2 yuan/ton (- 0.12%) compared to September 22, while UR05 and UR09 remained unchanged. Among domestic spot prices, prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, and Jiangsu decreased by 0.62%, 0.67%, 0.60%, and 0.61% respectively, while prices in Henan and Northeast remained unchanged [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 103 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 53 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Costs - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan, Shanxi, and Shandong remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton, 880 yuan/ton, and 2930 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan and Shandong remained unchanged at 2520 yuan/ton and 2930 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5017 yuan/ton and 5200 yuan/ton respectively [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1655 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1664 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1652 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1658 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1658 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The report recommends paying attention to the opportunity of buying low on the 01 contract. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and a relatively cheap valuation. There are two possible upward drivers for urea prices in the future: on the supply side, there is an expectation of old - device renovation, with about 20% of urea devices over 20 years old and a comprehensive operating rate close to 80% with limited idle capacity; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, and urea exports from September to October are optimistic under the background of improved China - India relations. Therefore, the space for further decline of urea is limited [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: 1660.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 1.00 yuan (-0.06%) from September 19 [1]. - UR05: 1713.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 9.00 yuan (-0.52%) from September 19 [1]. - UR09: 1734.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 10.00 yuan (-0.57%) from September 19 [1]. Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - Shandong: 1620.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 20.00 yuan (-1.22%) from September 19 [1]. - Shanxi: 1500.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 10.00 yuan (-0.66%) from September 19 [1]. - Henan: 1620.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 20.00 yuan (-1.22%) from September 19 [1]. - Hebei: 1660.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 20.00 yuan (-1.19%) from September 19 [1]. - Northeast: 1660.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. - Jiangsu: 1630.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 20.00 yuan (-1.21%) from September 19 [1]. Basis and Spreads - Shandong spot - UR: -93.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 11.00 yuan from September 19 [1]. - 01 - 05 spread: -53.00 yuan/ton on September 22, up 8.00 yuan from September 19 [1]. Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices in Henan: 1000.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. - Anthracite prices in Shanxi: 880.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong: 2930.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan: 2520.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. Melamine Prices - Shandong: 5017.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 66.00 yuan (-1.30%) from September 19 [1]. - Jiangsu: 5200.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying low on the 01 contract [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report [1] 2. Core View - The report recommends paying attention to the opportunity of buying the 01 contract on dips. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and the valuation being relatively cheap. There are two possible upward drivers for urea prices in the future: on the supply side, there is an expectation of old - device renewal and transformation, as the proportion of urea devices over 20 years old is about 20% and the current comprehensive operating rate is close to 80% with limited idle capacity; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, and considering the easing of Sino - Indian relations, urea exports from September to October are quite promising. Therefore, the space for further decline of urea is relatively limited [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Price (Closing Price) - UR01: On September 19, it was 1661.00 yuan/ton, down 9.00 yuan or 0.54% from September 18 [1] - UR05: On September 19, it was 1722.00 yuan/ton, down 3.00 yuan or 0.17% from September 18 [1] - UR09: On September 19, it was 1744.00 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan or 0.06% from September 18 [1] Domestic Spot Price (Small - Granule) - Shandong: Remained at 1640.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19 [1] - Shanxi: On September 19, it was 1510.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan or 0.66% from September 18 [1] - Henan: On September 19, it was 1640.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan or 0.61% from September 18 [1] - Hebei: Remained at 1680.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19 [1] - Northeast: Remained at 1660.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19 [1] - Jiangsu: Remained at 1650.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19 [1] Basis and Spread - Shandong Spot - UR: On September 19, it was - 82.00 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan from September 18 [1] - 01 - 05 Spread: On September 19, it was - 61.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan from September 18 [1] Upstream Cost - Anthracite Price: In Henan, it remained at 1000.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19; in Shanxi, it remained at 880.00 yuan/ton; in Shandong, it remained at 2930.00 yuan/ton [1] Downstream Price - Compound Fertilizer (45%S) Price in Henan: Remained at 2520.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19 [1] - Melamine Price: In Shandong, it remained at 5083.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19; in Jiangsu, it remained at 5200.00 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1672 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1656 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1661 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1666 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying the 01 contract on dips [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report recommends paying attention to the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract on dips. The current urea price has dropped to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and the urea valuation being cheap. There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the future: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - fashioned devices; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports. Therefore, the space for further decline in the current urea price is relatively limited [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices (closing prices): UR01 decreased from 1681.00 yuan/ton to 1670.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.65%; UR05 decreased from 1734.00 yuan/ton to 1725.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52%; UR09 decreased from 1755.00 yuan/ton to 1745.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57% [1]. - Domestic spot prices (small - particle): Shandong decreased from 1650.00 yuan/ton to 1640.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61%; Shanxi decreased from 1530.00 yuan/ton to 1520.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.65%; Henan decreased from 1660.00 yuan/ton to 1650.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60%; Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. Basis and Spread - The direct difference between Shandong spot and UR decreased from - 84.00 yuan/ton to - 85.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.00 yuan/ton; the spread between 01 - 05 decreased from - 53.00 yuan/ton to - 55.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.00 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream cost: The anthracite price in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000.00 yuan/ton and 880.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2930.00 yuan/ton and 2520.00 yuan/ton respectively; the price of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5083.00 yuan/ton and 5200.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1681 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1681 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1662 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1670 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1671 yuan/ton. The 2601 position was 286,823 lots [1]. Long - Short Logic and Trading Strategy - Long - short logic: Urea is cost - effective, with low upstream profits. On the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - fashioned devices (20 - year - old devices account for about 20% and the comprehensive operating rate is close to 80%, with little idle capacity); on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, especially in September - October [1]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract on dips [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Recommend paying attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain level of cost - effectiveness, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and the valuation being cheap. There are two potential upward drivers for urea prices: expected supply - side renovation of old facilities (about 20% of urea facilities are over 20 years old and the current comprehensive operating rate is close to 80% with limited idle capacity), and expected improvement in demand - side exports (optimistic about urea exports from September to October due to the easing of Sino - Indian relations). Therefore, the space for further decline of urea is limited [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices: UR01 closed at 1670 yuan/ton on September 18, down 11 yuan or 0.65% from September 17; UR05 closed at 1734 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or 0.52%; UR09 closed at 1755 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.57% [1]. - Domestic spot prices (small - particle): Shandong was 1650 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.61%; Shanxi was 1530 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.65%; Henan was 1660 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.60%; Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 84 yuan/ton on September 18, down 1 yuan from September 17. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 53 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream cost: The anthracite price in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2930 yuan/ton and 2520 yuan/ton respectively; the price of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5083 yuan/ton and 5200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1681 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1681 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1662 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1670 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1671 yuan/ton. The 2601 position was 286,823 lots [1]. Trading Strategy - Focus on the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recommend paying attention to the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract on dips. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and a reasonable valuation. There are two potential upward drivers for urea prices: supply - side expectation of old device renovation (old devices over 20 years account for about 20% and the current comprehensive operating rate is close to 80% with limited idle capacity), and demand - side expectation of improved exports (optimistic about urea exports from September to October due to the easing of Sino - Indian relations). Therefore, the space for further decline of urea is limited [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - On September 17, UR01 closed at 1,681 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.30% from September 16; UR05 closed at 1,734 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.17%; UR09 closed at 1,755 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.11% [1]. Spot Prices - Domestic small - particle urea spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on September 17 compared to September 16, while the price in Shanxi dropped 10 yuan/ton or 0.65% to 1,530 yuan/ton [1]. Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 3 yuan/ton to - 84 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 53 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream Costs - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong dropped 20 yuan/ton or 0.68% to 2,930 yuan/ton, while the price in Henan remained unchanged at 2,520 yuan/ton. The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5,083 yuan/ton and 5,200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1,685 yuan/ton, the highest was 1,687 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,676 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,681 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,681 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 281,488 lots [1]. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract on dips [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report's Core View - Although the current urea price is fluctuating lower due to strong supply and weak demand, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying on dips in the future. Considering both valuation and drivers, the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and upstream profits are also relatively low, so the urea valuation is not high. There are two potential upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old facilities, with about 20% of urea facilities over 20 years old and the current comprehensive urea operating rate above 80% with limited idle capacity; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, and urea exports from September to October are quite promising given the easing of China-India relations. Therefore, it is advisable to focus on the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Spread - **Futures Prices**: On September 11, the closing prices of UR01 in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan were 1671 yuan/ton, 1540 yuan/ton, and 1660 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0.12%, -1.28%, and -0.60% compared to September 10. The closing prices of UR05 and UR09 were 1719 yuan/ton and 1595 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0.00% and -1.12% [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Grained)**: On September 11, the spot prices in Hebei, Northeast China, and Jiangsu were 1670 yuan/ton, 1680 yuan/ton, and 1650 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Hebei decreased by 2.34% compared to September 10, while the prices in Northeast China and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between Shandong spot and UR was -59 yuan/ton on September 11, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to September 10. The 01 - 05 spread was -48 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Upstream and Downstream Prices - **Upstream Costs**: On September 11, the anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi were 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Shanxi decreased by 2.22% compared to September 10, while the price in Henan remained unchanged [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu were 5100 yuan/ton and 5300 yuan/ton respectively, with the price in Shandong decreasing by 0.33% compared to September 10 and the price in Jiangsu remaining unchanged [1]. 3. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1669 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1666 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1671 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1672 yuan/ton. The持仓量 of 2601 was 292643 lots [1]. 4. Trading Strategy - Focus on the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1].