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节前备货情绪难延续,关注出口动态变化
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-28 09:39
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when it is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - The pre - holiday stocking sentiment in the urea market is difficult to sustain, and attention should be paid to the dynamic changes in exports. The domestic spot market of urea sees manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders. Although the transaction volume has improved after prices in Shandong and Henan fell below previous lows, the sustainability is weak. Domestic demand is weak, and the inventory in urea factories continues to accumulate. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply and demand of urea remain relatively loose. The export side still has a significant impact on the sentiment of urea prices. The export window period in September is ongoing, and the export rhythm is accelerating [1][2] Section Summaries Price and Spread - Urea futures prices: The urea main contract closed at 1669 yuan/ton (- 5). Spot prices: The market price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1610 yuan/ton (+ 0), in Shandong was 1600 yuan/ton (- 10), and in Jiangsu was 1600 yuan/ton (- 20). The price of small - sized anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis of urea in Shandong was - 59 yuan/ton (+ 5), in Henan was - 59 yuan/ton (+ 5), and in Jiangsu was - 49 yuan/ton (+ 5). Urea production profit was 70.0 yuan/ton (- 10.0), and export profit was 1069.6 yuan/ton (- 88.4) [1] Upstream Supply - As of September 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 85.58% (unchanged). The urea production is running at a high level [1][2] Downstream Demand - As of September 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 35.27% (- 3.36%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.58% (+ 3.8%), and the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 6.71 days (+ 0.5). The domestic demand for urea is weak. Industrial demand for compound fertilizers shows low enthusiasm for purchasing, with sporadic purchases at low prices, and melamine has rigid - demand purchases [1][2] Urea Inventory - As of September 28, 2025, the in - factory inventory of enterprises was 121.8 million tons (+ 5.3), and the port inventory was 49.6 million tons (- 2.0). The in - factory inventory of urea continues to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia [1][2]
尿素早评:关注逢低做多机会-20250925
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 01:30
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report recommends paying attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract of urea futures. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and the valuation being relatively cheap. There are two potential upward drivers for urea prices in the future: on the supply - side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - aged production facilities (old facilities over 20 years account for about 20% and the current comprehensive operating rate is close to 80% with limited idle capacity); on the demand - side, there is an expectation of improved exports, especially in September - October, given the easing relationship between China and India. Therefore, the space for further decline of urea prices is limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Urea Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On September 24, UR01 closed at 1673 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 0.90% from September 23; UR05 closed at 1724 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.64%; UR09 closed at 1745 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.63% [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: In Shandong, it was 1610 yuan/ton with no change; in Shanxi, 1490 yuan/ton with no change; in Henan, it dropped 10 yuan to 1610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%; in Hebei, 1650 yuan/ton with no change; in Northeast China, 1660 yuan/ton with no change; in Jiangsu, 1620 yuan/ton with no change [1]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 114 yuan/ton on September 24, down 11 yuan from September 23. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 51 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [1]. 3.3 Upstream and Downstream Prices - **Upstream Costs**: The price of anthracite coal in Henan was 1000 yuan/ton with no change, and in Shanxi, it was 880 yuan/ton with no change [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong was 2930 yuan/ton with no change, in Henan, it was 2520 yuan/ton with no change. The price of melamine in Shandong was 5017 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu, it was 5200 yuan/ton with no change [1]. 3.4 Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main contract 2601 of urea futures was 1662 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1681 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1658 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1673 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1672 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 300119 lots [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1].
尿素早评:关注逢低做多机会-20250924
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 01:18
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The report recommends paying attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and the valuation being relatively cheap. There are two possible upward drivers for urea prices in the future: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - fashioned urea plants, and on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports. Therefore, the space for further decline in urea prices is limited [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On September 23, the closing prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 were 1658 yuan/ton, 1713 yuan/ton, and 1734 yuan/ton respectively. The UR01 decreased by 2 yuan/ton (- 0.12%) compared to September 22, while UR05 and UR09 remained unchanged. Among domestic spot prices, prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, and Jiangsu decreased by 0.62%, 0.67%, 0.60%, and 0.61% respectively, while prices in Henan and Northeast remained unchanged [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 103 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 53 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Costs - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan, Shanxi, and Shandong remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton, 880 yuan/ton, and 2930 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan and Shandong remained unchanged at 2520 yuan/ton and 2930 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5017 yuan/ton and 5200 yuan/ton respectively [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1655 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1664 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1652 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1658 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1658 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1]
尿素早评:关注逢低做多机会-20250923
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:26
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The report recommends paying attention to the opportunity of buying low on the 01 contract. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and a relatively cheap valuation. There are two possible upward drivers for urea prices in the future: on the supply side, there is an expectation of old - device renovation, with about 20% of urea devices over 20 years old and a comprehensive operating rate close to 80% with limited idle capacity; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, and urea exports from September to October are optimistic under the background of improved China - India relations. Therefore, the space for further decline of urea is limited [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: 1660.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 1.00 yuan (-0.06%) from September 19 [1]. - UR05: 1713.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 9.00 yuan (-0.52%) from September 19 [1]. - UR09: 1734.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 10.00 yuan (-0.57%) from September 19 [1]. Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - Shandong: 1620.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 20.00 yuan (-1.22%) from September 19 [1]. - Shanxi: 1500.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 10.00 yuan (-0.66%) from September 19 [1]. - Henan: 1620.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 20.00 yuan (-1.22%) from September 19 [1]. - Hebei: 1660.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 20.00 yuan (-1.19%) from September 19 [1]. - Northeast: 1660.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. - Jiangsu: 1630.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 20.00 yuan (-1.21%) from September 19 [1]. Basis and Spreads - Shandong spot - UR: -93.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 11.00 yuan from September 19 [1]. - 01 - 05 spread: -53.00 yuan/ton on September 22, up 8.00 yuan from September 19 [1]. Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices in Henan: 1000.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. - Anthracite prices in Shanxi: 880.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong: 2930.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan: 2520.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. Melamine Prices - Shandong: 5017.00 yuan/ton on September 22, down 66.00 yuan (-1.30%) from September 19 [1]. - Jiangsu: 5200.00 yuan/ton on September 22, unchanged from September 19 [1]. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying low on the 01 contract [1].
尿素早评:关注逢低做多机会-20250922
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 02:45
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report [1] 2. Core View - The report recommends paying attention to the opportunity of buying the 01 contract on dips. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and the valuation being relatively cheap. There are two possible upward drivers for urea prices in the future: on the supply side, there is an expectation of old - device renewal and transformation, as the proportion of urea devices over 20 years old is about 20% and the current comprehensive operating rate is close to 80% with limited idle capacity; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, and considering the easing of Sino - Indian relations, urea exports from September to October are quite promising. Therefore, the space for further decline of urea is relatively limited [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Price (Closing Price) - UR01: On September 19, it was 1661.00 yuan/ton, down 9.00 yuan or 0.54% from September 18 [1] - UR05: On September 19, it was 1722.00 yuan/ton, down 3.00 yuan or 0.17% from September 18 [1] - UR09: On September 19, it was 1744.00 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan or 0.06% from September 18 [1] Domestic Spot Price (Small - Granule) - Shandong: Remained at 1640.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19 [1] - Shanxi: On September 19, it was 1510.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan or 0.66% from September 18 [1] - Henan: On September 19, it was 1640.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan or 0.61% from September 18 [1] - Hebei: Remained at 1680.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19 [1] - Northeast: Remained at 1660.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19 [1] - Jiangsu: Remained at 1650.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19 [1] Basis and Spread - Shandong Spot - UR: On September 19, it was - 82.00 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan from September 18 [1] - 01 - 05 Spread: On September 19, it was - 61.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan from September 18 [1] Upstream Cost - Anthracite Price: In Henan, it remained at 1000.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19; in Shanxi, it remained at 880.00 yuan/ton; in Shandong, it remained at 2930.00 yuan/ton [1] Downstream Price - Compound Fertilizer (45%S) Price in Henan: Remained at 2520.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19 [1] - Melamine Price: In Shandong, it remained at 5083.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19; in Jiangsu, it remained at 5200.00 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1672 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1656 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1661 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1666 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying the 01 contract on dips [1]
尿素早评20250919:做多机会或逐步到来-20250919
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 07:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report recommends paying attention to the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract on dips. The current urea price has dropped to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and the urea valuation being cheap. There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the future: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - fashioned devices; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports. Therefore, the space for further decline in the current urea price is relatively limited [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices (closing prices): UR01 decreased from 1681.00 yuan/ton to 1670.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.65%; UR05 decreased from 1734.00 yuan/ton to 1725.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52%; UR09 decreased from 1755.00 yuan/ton to 1745.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57% [1]. - Domestic spot prices (small - particle): Shandong decreased from 1650.00 yuan/ton to 1640.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61%; Shanxi decreased from 1530.00 yuan/ton to 1520.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.65%; Henan decreased from 1660.00 yuan/ton to 1650.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60%; Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. Basis and Spread - The direct difference between Shandong spot and UR decreased from - 84.00 yuan/ton to - 85.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.00 yuan/ton; the spread between 01 - 05 decreased from - 53.00 yuan/ton to - 55.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.00 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream cost: The anthracite price in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000.00 yuan/ton and 880.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2930.00 yuan/ton and 2520.00 yuan/ton respectively; the price of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5083.00 yuan/ton and 5200.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1681 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1681 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1662 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1670 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1671 yuan/ton. The 2601 position was 286,823 lots [1]. Long - Short Logic and Trading Strategy - Long - short logic: Urea is cost - effective, with low upstream profits. On the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - fashioned devices (20 - year - old devices account for about 20% and the comprehensive operating rate is close to 80%, with little idle capacity); on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, especially in September - October [1]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract on dips [1].
尿素早评:做多机会或逐步到来-20250919
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:11
| | | | | 尿素早评20250919: 做多机会或逐步到来 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 9月17日 单位 9月18日 | | | | | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | UR01 | 元/吨 | 1670.00 | 1681.00 | -11.00 | -0.65% | | 尿素期货价格 | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1725.00 | 1734.00 | -9.00 | -0.52% | | | (收盘价) | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1745.00 | 1755.00 | -10.00 | -0.57% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1640.00 | 1650.00 | -10.00 | -0.61% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1520.00 | 1530.00 | -10.00 | -0.65% | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1650.00 | 1660.00 | -10. ...
尿素早评20250918:做多机会或逐步到来-20250918
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 06:08
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recommend paying attention to the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract on dips. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and a reasonable valuation. There are two potential upward drivers for urea prices: supply - side expectation of old device renovation (old devices over 20 years account for about 20% and the current comprehensive operating rate is close to 80% with limited idle capacity), and demand - side expectation of improved exports (optimistic about urea exports from September to October due to the easing of Sino - Indian relations). Therefore, the space for further decline of urea is limited [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - On September 17, UR01 closed at 1,681 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.30% from September 16; UR05 closed at 1,734 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.17%; UR09 closed at 1,755 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.11% [1]. Spot Prices - Domestic small - particle urea spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on September 17 compared to September 16, while the price in Shanxi dropped 10 yuan/ton or 0.65% to 1,530 yuan/ton [1]. Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 3 yuan/ton to - 84 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 53 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream Costs - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong dropped 20 yuan/ton or 0.68% to 2,930 yuan/ton, while the price in Henan remained unchanged at 2,520 yuan/ton. The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5,083 yuan/ton and 5,200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1,685 yuan/ton, the highest was 1,687 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,676 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,681 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,681 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 281,488 lots [1]. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract on dips [1].
尿素早评:现货走低关注后市逢低做多机会-20250912
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 05:37
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report's Core View - Although the current urea price is fluctuating lower due to strong supply and weak demand, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying on dips in the future. Considering both valuation and drivers, the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and upstream profits are also relatively low, so the urea valuation is not high. There are two potential upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old facilities, with about 20% of urea facilities over 20 years old and the current comprehensive urea operating rate above 80% with limited idle capacity; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, and urea exports from September to October are quite promising given the easing of China-India relations. Therefore, it is advisable to focus on the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Spread - **Futures Prices**: On September 11, the closing prices of UR01 in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan were 1671 yuan/ton, 1540 yuan/ton, and 1660 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0.12%, -1.28%, and -0.60% compared to September 10. The closing prices of UR05 and UR09 were 1719 yuan/ton and 1595 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0.00% and -1.12% [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Grained)**: On September 11, the spot prices in Hebei, Northeast China, and Jiangsu were 1670 yuan/ton, 1680 yuan/ton, and 1650 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Hebei decreased by 2.34% compared to September 10, while the prices in Northeast China and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between Shandong spot and UR was -59 yuan/ton on September 11, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to September 10. The 01 - 05 spread was -48 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Upstream and Downstream Prices - **Upstream Costs**: On September 11, the anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi were 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Shanxi decreased by 2.22% compared to September 10, while the price in Henan remained unchanged [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu were 5100 yuan/ton and 5300 yuan/ton respectively, with the price in Shandong decreasing by 0.33% compared to September 10 and the price in Jiangsu remaining unchanged [1]. 3. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1669 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1666 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1671 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1672 yuan/ton. The持仓量 of 2601 was 292643 lots [1]. 4. Trading Strategy - Focus on the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1].
尿素早评:现货走低,关注后市逢低做多机会-20250912
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 02:38
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - Although the current urea price is fluctuating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and driving factors, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying low in the future market. Considering both valuation and driving factors, it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of buying low for the 01 contract [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 in Shandong increased by 2 yuan/ton (0.12%), UR01 in Shanxi decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.28%), UR05 remained unchanged, UR09 decreased by 18 yuan/ton (-1.12%), and UR01 in Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.60%) [1] - Domestic spot prices (small granules): In Hebei, it decreased by 40 yuan/ton (-2.34%), and remained unchanged in the Northeast and Jiangsu [1] - Spreads: The spread between Shandong spot and UR decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton [1] - Upstream costs: The anthracite price in Henan remained unchanged, while in Shanxi, it decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-2.22%) [1] - Downstream prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged, the melamine price in Shandong decreased by 17 yuan/ton (-0.33%), and in Jiangsu, it remained unchanged [1] 2. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1669 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1666 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1671 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1672 yuan/ton. The position volume of 2601 was 292,643 lots [1] 3. Long - Short Logic - Valuation: The current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not high [1] - Driving factors: In the second half of the year, there are two possible upward driving factors for the urea price. First, there is an expectation of renovation of old production facilities on the supply side, with about 20% of urea production facilities over 20 years old, and the current comprehensive operating rate of urea is over 80% with limited idle capacity. Second, there is an expectation of improved exports on the demand side, and urea exports from September to October are quite promising under the background of improved China - India relations [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying low for the 01 contract [1]