| | | | | 尿素早评20250827:关注逢低做多机会 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | 单位 8月26日 8月25日 | | | | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | 民素期货价格 | (收盘价) | UR01 山东 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1737.00 1700.00 | 1745.00 1700.00 | -8.00 0.00 | -0.46% 0.00% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1777.00 | 1789.00 | -12.00 | -0.67% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1703.00 | 1714.00 | -11.00 | -0.64% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1610.00 | 1610.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1710.00 | 1710.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 ...

尿素产业日报 2025-06-23 。UR2509合约短线建议在1700-1770区间交易。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1711 | -19 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 25 | -16 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 233160 | 7750 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -4628 | -7246 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 0 | -3581 | | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report believes that the decline space of urea is limited, and it recommends going long on urea on dips. The main reasons are that urea exports may gradually be liberalized, and the export profit is considerable due to the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets. Additionally, domestic agricultural demand provides support as the peak season for top - dressing of crops like corn is coming, and inventory pressure has significantly reduced, making a sharp decline in urea prices unlikely [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: On May 19, compared with May 16, UR01 decreased by 17 yuan/ton, UR05 in Shandong decreased by 19 yuan/ton (-0.95%), UR05 in Shanxi decreased by 30 yuan/ton (-1.03%), UR09 decreased by 30 yuan/ton (-1.60%), and another price decreased by 50 yuan/ton (-2.75%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: In Henan, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.52%); in Hebei, it decreased by 30 yuan/ton (-1.55%); in Northeast China, there was no change; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.52%) [1]. - **Spread and Price Difference**: The spread between Shandong spot and UR decreased by 11 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Important Information On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1858 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1864 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1835 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1847 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1847 yuan/ton, and the position was 221735 lots [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy The strategy is to go long on dips. However, it should be noted that if the price rises too fast in the short term, policies may change again [1].