Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a slight increase during Asian trading hours, potentially indicating a technical rebound after a significant drop earlier [1] Group 1: Price Movement - Spot gold rose by 0.2% to $3,347.81 per ounce [1] - The price decline on Monday marked the largest drop in three months [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - President Trump clarified on social media that gold would not be subject to tariffs, which contributed to the price movement [1] - Reports of potential tariffs on gold bars last Friday led to a surge in gold prices, reaching historical highs [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming release of the U.S. July CPI data for insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the recent weak U.S. non-farm payroll data has led to a significant market shift, resulting in a strong rebound in gold prices, which closed above $3360, indicating a potential short-term trend reversal [1] - The U.S. government has experienced key vacancies in two major economic departments: the Federal Reserve and the Department of Labor, with the resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adrianne Kugler and the dismissal of the Labor Statistics Bureau Director [2][5] - President Trump announced plans to nominate new leaders for both the Federal Reserve and the Labor Statistics Bureau within a few days, indicating a potential shift in economic policy direction [4][5] Group 2 - Technical analysis of gold shows a significant rebound signal after a prolonged period of consolidation, with prices recovering from a low of below $3270 and currently stabilizing above the middle Bollinger band at $3340.11, which boosts bullish sentiment [6] - The MACD indicator suggests a potential end to the bearish divergence, with decreasing green column momentum, indicating that a technical rebound may have continuation potential [6] - The RSI indicator has risen from the oversold region to 52.24, breaking the previous weak trend, and if momentum continues, gold prices may test resistance at $3407, with a breakthrough opening up further upside potential [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East has boosted global market risk appetite, leading to a technical rebound in major stock indices. However, domestic funds remain cautious, and the trading volume in the two markets is stable. It is expected that the large-cap stock index will continue to fluctuate and repair with low volume in the short term, and the structural opportunities may be concentrated in the main lines of policy-driven and valuation recovery [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Domestic Economy**: In May, the added value of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 5.8% year-on-year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4%. From January to May, the national fixed-asset investment increased by 3.7% year-on-year. The added value of high-tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing increased by 8.6% and 9.1% respectively in May. The sales area and sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% respectively from January to May, the decline in new construction continued to narrow at a low level, the decline in investment slightly expanded, and the inventory of commercial housing has decreased for three consecutive months [1]. - **Overseas Situation**: Iran has expressed its willingness to restart negotiations on the premise that the United States does not participate in the Israeli attack, and hopes to limit the attacks to a limited scope [1]. - **Stock Market Performance**: A-share three major indices fluctuated upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.35% to close at 3388.73 points and the ChiNext Index rising 0.26%. The sector indices rose more and fell less, with the media, communication, computer, and real estate industries leading the gains, and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, beauty care, and non-ferrous metal industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the two markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 1.2 trillion yuan. The three major US stock indices closed up across the board, with the Nasdaq rising 1.52% to 19701.21 points [1]. Futures Market - **Basis**: This Friday, the current-month contracts were delivered, and the basis of IF, IH, and IC rebounded. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of IF increased, and the open interest of all stock index futures decreased [2]. Strategy - Driven by the positive signal of the easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the risk appetite of the global market has been repaired, and the main stock indices have shown a technical rebound. The domestic capital market remains cautious, and the trading volume in the two markets is stable. It is expected that the large-cap stock index will continue to fluctuate and repair with low volume in the short term, and the structural opportunities may be concentrated in the main lines of policy-driven and valuation recovery [3]. Chart Summary - **Macroeconomic Charts**: Include the relationship between the US dollar index and A-share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A-share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, and the relationship between US Treasury yields and A-share style trends [5][6]. - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: Show the daily performance of major domestic stock indices, the trading volume of the two markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen, and the margin trading balance [12]. - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: Present the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, the basis of stock index futures, and the inter - period spreads of stock index futures [15][35][40].

Core Viewpoint - Traders are taking profits, leading to a pullback in oil prices despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with prices still supported by risk premiums related to Iran and weakened expectations for a nuclear deal with the U.S. [1] Group 1 - Oil futures have retraced some of the gains from the previous day due to profit-taking by traders [1] - The market remains influenced by geopolitical concerns, particularly those centered around Iran, which have contributed to a recent technical rebound in oil prices [1] - Expectations regarding the U.S. nuclear deal have diminished, adding to the complexity of the oil market dynamics [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting a significant drop followed by a period of volatility [1] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the current market movement represents a technical rebound or the beginning of a new downward trend [1] - Richard is providing live analysis to interpret these market changes and their implications for investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced a technical rebound after a significant drop, with Brent and WTI crude both rising over 2% following concerns about oversupply due to OPEC+'s decision to accelerate production for the second consecutive month [1] Group 1 - Oil prices fell to a four-year low due to concerns over oversupply and unclear demand outlook amid global trade tensions [1] - DNB Markets analysts noted that technical indicators suggest the market is in an oversold condition [1]

Group 1 - The recent slight rebound in oil prices appears to be more technical rather than driven by fundamentals [1] - Ongoing negative factors include significant shifts in OPEC+ production strategy, demand uncertainty under U.S. tariff risks, and downward revisions in price forecasts, all of which continue to weigh on overall oil price trends [1]

Group 1 - Brent crude futures experienced a technical rebound, rising by $1 to $61.23 per barrel [1] - The price had previously touched a four-year low [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in the U.S. stock market may be temporary and could be attributed to short sellers covering their positions after a significant three-day decline [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The U.S. stock market experienced a substantial rebound after the most severe three-day drop in five years, with the S&P 500 index rising by 3.7% [1] - The S&P 500 index had previously lost over $5 trillion in market value over the last three trading days, marking a significant decline [1] - The index found support around the 5000-point level, indicating a potential stabilization point for investors [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investor optimism was fueled by rumors that the Trump administration might relax stringent tariff policies, contributing to the market's recovery [1] - Kevin Gordon, a senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab, described the rebound as a typical technical recovery following a rapid descent into oversold territory [1] - Jim Roppel, founder of Roppel Capital Management, noted that the rebound forced large speculators to cover short positions, leading to a rush among investors to close out their positions [1] Group 3: Bond Market Reaction - The bond market also saw a reversal, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rising back above 4% [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent volatility in gold prices, highlighting a significant drop followed by a period of consolidation [1] - It raises the question of whether the current market behavior represents a technical rebound or a reversal of the prevailing trend [1] - The piece emphasizes the importance for retail investors to adapt to the changing market dynamics [1]