技术面与基本面形成共振，市场对欧元短期走势偏向乐观。日线图显示，欧元兑美元此前在1.1500关口 形成"双重底"形态，目前已突破5日及10日均线压制，5日均线上穿10日均线形成"金叉"，MACD指标红 色能量柱持续放大，表明买盘力量正在积聚。不过分析师提醒，汇率尚未突破1.1500-1.1600震荡区间， 需警惕1.1580阻力位附近的回调压力。 11月26日亚洲时段，欧元兑美元汇率延续近期反弹态势，日内小幅走高0.10%，核心交投区间落在 1.1578附近，截至上午10时36分，汇率报1.1583，较前一交易日上涨0.1210%，成功终结此前数日的震 荡下行格局。这一走势背后，是欧美央行政策分歧扩大与欧元区经济边际改善共同作用的结果，为汇市 参与者提供了明确的交易信号。 汇率波动已对贸易与投资产生实质影响。对欧元区出口企业而言，汇率反弹可降低美元结算成本，建议 借当前窗口锁定远期汇率；持有欧元负债的跨国公司则可考虑提前购汇以控制财务风险。投资者需重点 关注两大信号：基本面紧盯美国非农数据、欧元区通胀报告及欧美央行表态，技术面则聚焦1.1550支撑 位与1.1580阻力位的突破情况，操作中需严格控制仓位并设置 ...

欧元兑美元技术分析 技术面看，欧元兑美元自1.1918高点回落调整，虽从1.1468低点温和反弹，但上行动能不足，近期围绕 1.1530窄幅整理；支撑位聚焦1.1541及1.1468（11月反弹起点），阻力位集中于1.1700、1.1654-94云区 等，MACD显示下行动能衰减，RSI小幅回暖，但ADX低于16表明趋势疲弱，数据前大概率震荡。后市 走势取决于美国经济数据、欧元区复苏力度及全球风险情绪三大变量，短期汇价或维持1.1468-1.1700区 间，站稳1.1600可看1.1655-1.1700，跌破1.1541则可能下探1.1468，投资者需待数据明确方向再布局。 建议可通过欧元兑美元关键数据监测表，实时跟踪通胀、就业等核心指标动态。 11月20日，欧元兑美元报1.1529，当日微涨0.0004，最高1.1542、最低1.1527，呈窄幅震荡。当前汇价多 空博弈激烈，欧元区通胀降温与美国经济数据分化形成制衡，技术面处于整理阶段，美联储会议纪要与 非农数据将成破局关键。 基本面呈现通胀与政策博弈下的区间制衡格局：欧元区10月调和CPI同比降至2.1%，核心通胀稳定在 2.4%，通胀趋缓使欧洲央行暂停加 ...

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 每经AI快讯，11月4日，欧元兑美元跌至1.1498美元，为8月1日以来最低。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Europe are suppressing the euro's outlook while increasing demand for traditional safe-haven assets, particularly the US dollar [1] - The Federal Reserve's persistent hawkish stance supports the strength of the dollar, with officials suggesting that interest rates need to remain at current levels longer than previously expected [1] - In contrast, the Eurozone is facing a significant slowdown in business activity, with recent PMI data confirming contractions in both manufacturing and services [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted a cautious tone, indicating substantial downside risks to economic growth, which exacerbates downward pressure on the euro [1] - The widening divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the US is creating fundamental imbalances, further supporting the dollar [1] - Overall fundamentals continue to favor the dollar, suggesting further downside potential for the euro against the dollar [1] Group 3 - Technical analysis shows that the EUR/USD pair is forming a narrow consolidation range around 1.1600 after a significant downward move, indicating the potential for a third wave of downward trend [4] - A decisive break below this consolidation range could signal a resumption of bearish momentum, with an initial target of 1.1488 [4] - The MACD indicator confirms this bearish technical outlook, with its signal line remaining below the zero line and pointing downward, indicating ongoing selling pressure [4] Group 4 - The one-hour chart indicates that a downward move has completed at 1.1576, followed by a pullback to 1.1620, outlining the current consolidation area [6] - A breakout from this range could trigger a short-term pullback to 1.1655 before resuming a broader downward trend, targeting 1.1500 [6] - Conversely, a break below this range would directly trigger bearish fluctuations, with a target of 1.1488, marking the completion of the first phase of the third downward wave [6] Group 5 - The combination of fundamental support for the dollar and the deteriorating outlook for the Eurozone maintains a bearish bias for the EUR/USD pair [7] - The currency pair appears to be pausing within a broader downward trend, with a break below 1.1600 potentially triggering the next leg down, targeting 1.1488 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered Bank's report indicates that the euro may weaken in the coming months if market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) rise [1] Monetary Policy - The ECB has shifted to a dovish stance, with market pricing suggesting the possibility of a rate cut as early as December, particularly as inflation remains below the 2% target [1] - If price pressures continue to remain subdued, additional rate cuts may occur in 2026 [1] Economic Challenges - The euro faces multiple headwinds, including US tariff threats impacting eurozone exports and growth, as well as internal challenges such as political uncertainty in France and delays in German fiscal disbursements due to bureaucratic processes [1] Currency Forecast - Standard Chartered forecasts that by the second quarter of 2026, the EUR/USD exchange rate will decline from the current level of approximately 1.17 to 1.13, driven by ongoing growth concerns and policy divergence [1]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) is down by -0.02%, influenced by positive comments from ECB President Lagarde which strengthened the euro and negatively impacted the dollar [1] - The ongoing US government shutdown is bearish for the dollar, with potential negative implications for the US economy if prolonged [1] - The US September NFIB small business optimism index fell -2.0 to 98.8, below expectations of 100.6, indicating weaker small business sentiment [3] Group 2: US-China Trade Relations - The US-China trade conflict has escalated, with China sanctioning five US units of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean Co., reflecting ongoing tit-for-tat measures [3] - The trade tensions have broader implications for the global economy, as vessels are responsible for over 80% of international trade [3] Group 3: Eurozone Economic Outlook - The euro is up by +0.10% after recovering from early losses, supported by ECB President Lagarde's optimistic remarks about the Eurozone economy [4] - The German October ZEW expectations of economic growth survey rose +2.0 to 39.3, although this was weaker than the expected 41.1 [5] - Political uncertainty in France, with a potential no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Lecornu, is putting pressure on the euro [5]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar continues to strengthen, reaching a two-month high, with significant movements in various currency pairs, indicating a robust dollar performance in the forex market [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Movements - The US dollar index has risen above the 99 mark, marking a two-month high [1]. - The euro is trading around 1.1600 against the dollar, maintaining its lowest level since August 25 [1]. - The USD/JPY pair has reached the 153 mark, showing continued upward momentum [1]. - The AUD/USD has declined, falling below the 0.6600 level [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Insights - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes reveal internal divisions among officials, suggesting a cautious approach to further rate cuts this year [2]. - The Bank of England's financial policy committee warns that a sudden shift in market perception of the Fed's independence could lead to a sharp revaluation of dollar asset prices [2]. - The European Central Bank officials express confidence in current interest rates, indicating no immediate need for further guidance, while acknowledging the potential for one more rate hike [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - A Reuters survey indicates that 17 out of 20 economists expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to lower the cash rate to 2.25% in November [2]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a mid-term global economic growth rate of approximately 3%, lower than the pre-pandemic rate of 3.7% [4].

Group 1 - The euro has depreciated by 0.4% against the US dollar, currently trading at 1.1658 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro has appreciated against the US Dollar, increasing by 0.52% to a current rate of 1.1752 on September 24 [1] Summary by Categories - Currency Movement - The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate has risen by 0.52% [1] - The current exchange rate stands at 1.1752 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is trading lower against the US Dollar, currently around 1.18, as the market digests mixed PMI data and focuses on the future policy direction of the European Central Bank (ECB) [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI rose slightly to 51.2, matching expectations of 51.1, indicating the fastest expansion in the private sector in 16 months [1] - Service sector growth exceeded expectations, while the manufacturing sector returned to contraction, underperforming forecasts [1] - France's data was disappointing, whereas Germany outperformed market expectations [1] Group 2: Central Bank Policy - The ECB has recently indicated that the rate-cutting cycle may be over, highlighting ongoing inflation risks related to tariffs, services, food prices, and fiscal policies [1] - Market attention is shifting towards upcoming speeches from ECB and Federal Reserve officials for further guidance [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Euro to Dollar Bollinger Bands show a middle band at 1.1685, upper band at 1.1780, and lower band at 1.1591, with the current price at 1.1792 slightly above the upper band [2] - A further breakout could target the upper wave high of 1.1829 and the psychological level of 1.1900 [2] - The MACD indicates a positive but not overheated momentum, with DIFF at 0.0030, DEA at 0.0021, and a column at 0.0018, all above the zero axis [2]