1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. The cost support is expected to strengthen in the short - term, and the futures price is predicted to fluctuate within a narrow range. The asphalt 2606 contract is expected to oscillate between 4559 - 4763 [7]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: In March 2026, the total domestic asphalt production plan was 2.187 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%). The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week was 22.7709%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.80 percentage points. The shipment volume of national sample enterprises was 109,890 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.59%. The output of sample enterprises was 380,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.31%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1.163 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.96%. The refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, and supply pressure may further decrease next week. The current demand is lower than the historical average. The daily asphalt processing profit was - 686.52 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 769.12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 48.92%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil strengthened, and it is expected to support the price in the short - term [7]. - **Basis**: On March 23, the spot price in Shandong was 4,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was - 361 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [7]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.195 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.36%. The in - factory inventory was 788,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 600,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.00%. The social and in - factory inventories continued to accumulate, while the port inventory continued to decline [7]. - **Disk**: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 06 contract closed above MA20 [7]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the main contract decreased [7]. - **Expectation**: Considering the refineries' production cuts, the weak demand affected by the off - season, the continuous inventory reduction, and the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support is expected to strengthen in the short - term. The disk is expected to oscillate within a narrow range, and the asphalt 2606 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4559 - 4763 [7]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price**: The prices of most contracts increased, with the 06 contract rising from 4,457 to 4,661, an increase of 4.58% [13]. - **Basis**: The basis of most contracts changed, with the 06 contract's basis changing from - 247 to - 361, a change of 46.15% [13]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased from 93,980 to 88,120, a decrease of 6.24% [13]. - **Some Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of some contracts changed, such as the 3 - 6 spread changing from - 863 to - 920, a change of 6.60% [13]. - **Weekly Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.195 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.36%. The in - factory inventory was 788,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 600,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.00% [15]. - **Weekly Production and Loss**: The sample enterprise output was 380,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.32%. The weekly maintenance volume was 1.163 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.96% [15]. - **Weekly Shipment**: The national shipment volume was 109,890 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.60% [15]. - **Downstream Demand Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of different types of asphalt and related products showed different trends, such as the start - up rate of heavy - traffic asphalt being 21.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 percentage points; the start - up rate of building asphalt being 4.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32 percentage points; the start - up rate of modified asphalt being 1.128%, a month - on - month increase of 0.40 percentage points; the start - up rate of road - modified asphalt being 10%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage point; and the start - up rate of waterproofing membranes being 36%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points [7][15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2026, showing the price differences between the spot and futures [18][20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2023 [23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026 [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2026 [29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt to SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2026 [33]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026 [36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the profit spreads between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [42]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical weekly shipment volumes of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2026 [44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventories from 2021 to 2026 [47]. - **Production**: The report shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [50]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of Marey crude oil prices and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026 [55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the historical production volumes of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [57]. - **Start - up Rate**: The report shows the historical weekly start - up rates of asphalt from 2023 to 2026 [60]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The report shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimations from 2018 to 2026 [63]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [66]. - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026 [70]. - **In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical trends of the in - factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2026 [73]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: The report shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [76]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Price Difference Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the import price differences of Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [79]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report shows the historical production volumes of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2026 [82]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical apparent consumption volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [85]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment**: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 [88]. - **New Local Special - Purpose Bonds**: The report shows the historical trends of new local special - purpose bonds from 2019 to 2026 [89]. - **Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year**: The report shows the historical year - on - year trends of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 [89]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the historical sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2026, as well as the historical trends of excavator monthly working hours from 2020 to 2026 [93][95]. - **Asphalt Start - up Rate**: The report shows the historical start - up rates of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2026, the historical start - up rates of asphalt by use from 2019 to 2026, and the historical start - up rates of downstream industries such as shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2021 to 2026 [97][100][102]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including production, import, export, downstream demand, and inventory [107].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In March 2026, the total domestic asphalt production plan was 2.187 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%). The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 24.5686%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.48 percentage points. The refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 6.6%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 0.7302%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 9%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage point; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 539.7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 32.10%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 308.9886 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 83.40%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - Overall judgment: The fundamentals are slightly positive, the basis is negative, the inventory situation is slightly positive, the disk is slightly positive, and the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2606 will fluctuate in the range of 4324 - 4494 [8][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints - Supply: The total domestic asphalt production plan in March 2026 was 2.187 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate was 24.5686%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.48 percentage points. The refineries reduced production to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - Demand: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane开工率 are all below the historical average, with different changes [8]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 539.7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 32.10%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 308.9886 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 83.40%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil is weakening, and short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - Comprehensive judgment: The fundamentals are slightly positive, the basis is negative, the inventory situation is slightly positive, the disk is slightly positive, and the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2606 will fluctuate in the range of 4324 - 4494 [8][9]. - Factors: Bullish factor is that the crude oil cost is relatively high, providing some support; bearish factors are insufficient demand for high - price goods and overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is high supply pressure and weak demand recovery [12][13][14]. 2. Asphalt Market Overview - Futures closing prices: Different contracts have different price changes, such as the 06 contract closing at 4409, a decrease of 55 from the previous value, a decline of 1.23% [16]. - Basis: On March 17th, the Shandong spot price was 4090 yuan/ton, and the 06 contract basis was - 319 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 1.179 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.61%; the in - factory inventory was 786,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.25%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 800,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.88% [8]. - Other data: There are also data on production, shipments,开工率, and profit margins, showing different trends [18]. 3. Asphalt Futures Market - Various Analyses - Basis trend: There are charts showing the historical trends of Shandong and East China basis from 2020 - 2026 [20][22]. - Spread analysis: - Main contract spread: There are charts showing the historical trends of 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 - 2023 [25]. - Asphalt - crude oil price trend: There are charts showing the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 - 2026 [28]. - Crude oil cracking spread: There are charts showing the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 - 2026 [31]. - Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend: There are charts showing the historical price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 - 2026 [35]. 4. Asphalt Spot Market - Regional Market Price Trends - There is a chart showing the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 - 2026 [38]. 5. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: - Asphalt profit: There is a chart showing the historical asphalt profit trends from 2019 - 2026 [41]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread trend: There is a chart showing the historical coking - asphalt profit spread trends from 2020 - 2026 [44]. - Supply side: - Shipment volume: There is a chart showing the weekly shipment volume trends from 2020 - 2026 [48]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: There is a chart showing the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory trends from 2021 - 2026 [51]. - Production: There are charts showing the weekly and monthly production trends from 2019 - 2026 [54]. - Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend: There is a chart showing the Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trends from 2018 - 2026 [58]. - Local refinery asphalt production: There is a chart showing the local refinery asphalt production trends from 2019 - 2026 [61]. -开工率: There is a chart showing the weekly开工率 trends from 2023 - 2026 [64]. - Maintenance loss volume estimate: There is a chart showing the maintenance loss volume estimate trends from 2018 - 2026 [67]. - Inventory: - Exchange warehouse receipts: There are charts showing the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) trends from 2019 - 2026 [70]. - Social inventory and in - factory inventory: There are charts showing the social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) trends from 2022 - 2026 [74]. - In - factory inventory inventory ratio: There is a chart showing the in - factory inventory inventory ratio trends from 2018 - 2026 [78]. - Import and export situation: - Asphalt export and import trends: There are charts showing the asphalt export and import trends from 2019 - 2025 [81]. - South Korean asphalt import price difference trend: There is a chart showing the South Korean asphalt import price difference trends from 2020 - 2026 [86]. - Demand side: - Petroleum coke production: There is a chart showing the petroleum coke production trends from 2019 - 2026 [87]. - Apparent consumption: There is a chart showing the apparent consumption trends from 2019 - 2025 [90]. - Downstream demand: - Highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment: There is a chart showing the highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment trends from 2020 - 2025 [93]. - New local special bonds: There is a chart showing the new local special bonds trends from 2019 - 2026 [95]. - Infrastructure investment completion year - on - year: There is a chart showing the infrastructure investment completion year - on - year trends from 2020 - 2024 [95]. - Downstream machinery demand: There are charts showing the asphalt concrete paver sales, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales trends from 2019 - 2026, as well as the excavator monthly working hours trends from 2020 - 2026 [97][101]. - Asphalt开工率: There are charts showing the heavy - traffic asphalt开工率, asphalt开工率 by use, and downstream开工率 trends from 2019 - 2026 [102][105][107]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: There is a chart showing the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 - 2026, including production, import, export, downstream demand, social inventory, in - factory inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [112].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In March 2026, the total domestic asphalt production schedule was 2.187 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%). This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 24.5686%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.48 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises was 176,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.67%. The output of sample enterprises was 410,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1.108 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.82%. Refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand side: The operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of construction asphalt was 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of modified asphalt was 0.7302%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of road - modified asphalt was 9%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage point, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of waterproofing membranes was 33%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, current demand is lower than the historical average [10]. - Cost side: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 539.7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 32.10%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 308.9886 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 83.40%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term support is expected to strengthen [10]. - Comprehensive judgment: The refineries have recently reduced production to ease supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is difficult to boost, and overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish. Inventory continues to be depleted. Crude oil is strengthening, and cost support has strengthened in the short term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. For asphalt 2606, the market fluctuates greatly, and cautious operation is recommended [10]. - Factors affecting the market: Bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. Bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall declining demand, and the strengthening expectation of the economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that supply pressure remains high, and demand recovery is weak [12][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In March 2026, domestic asphalt production increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. This week, refineries reduced production, and supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand: The operating rates of various types of asphalt and related products are generally lower than the historical average, indicating weak demand [10]. - Cost: The processing profit of asphalt is negative, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. Crude oil strengthening supports the market in the short term [10]. - Market judgment: It is expected that the asphalt 2606 market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and cautious operation is recommended [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures closing prices: The prices of various contracts have different degrees of increase, and the price increase ranges from 2.26% to 9.17% [16]. - Basis: On March 16, the spot price in Shandong was 4,060 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was - 404 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [10]. - Inventory: Social inventory increased by 2.61% month - on - month, factory inventory decreased by 0.25% month - on - month, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 5.88% month - on - month [10][18]. - Other data: The registered warehouse receipts increased by 45.65% month - on - month, and the price of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong increased by 2.27% month - on - month [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical basis trends of Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices [20][21]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main contract spread: The report shows the spread trends of 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2023, which is useful for spread trading analysis [25][26]. - Asphalt - crude oil price trend: It presents the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026, reflecting the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [28][29]. - Crude oil cracking spread: It shows the cracking spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2026, which is helpful for analyzing the profitability of refining [31][32][33]. - Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend: It presents the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2026, which can be used to analyze the relative value of different products [35][36]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the regional price differences and trends of asphalt [38][39]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: - Asphalt profit: It shows the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2026, which helps to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [40][41]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread trend: It presents the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which is useful for analyzing the profit differences between different production processes [43][44][45]. - Supply side: - Shipment volume: It shows the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the supply situation [47][48]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: It presents the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026, which is useful for analyzing the inventory situation [50][51]. - Production: It shows the weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 to 2026, which helps to understand the production capacity and trends [53][54]. - Marrow crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend: It presents the price of Marrow crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2026, which is related to the raw material supply of asphalt [57][59]. - Local refinery asphalt production: It shows the local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2026, which helps to understand the production contribution of local refineries [60][61]. - Operating rate: It shows the weekly operating rate of asphalt from 2023 to 2026, which helps to understand the production activity [63][64]. - Maintenance loss volume estimate: It presents the estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2026, which is useful for analyzing the impact of maintenance on production [66][67]. - Inventory: - Exchange warehouse receipts: It shows the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2026, which helps to understand the inventory situation in the futures market [69][70]. - Social inventory and factory inventory: It presents the social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026, which helps to understand the overall inventory situation [73][74]. - Factory inventory inventory ratio: It shows the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2026, which is useful for analyzing the inventory management of factories [77][78]. - Import and export situation: - Asphalt export and import trends: It presents the export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the international trade situation of asphalt [80][81]. - South Korean asphalt import spread trend: It shows the import spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which is useful for analyzing the cost advantage of imported asphalt [84][85]. - Demand side: - Petroleum coke production: It shows the petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2026, which is related to the demand for asphalt as a by - product [86][87]. - Apparent consumption: It presents the apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the overall demand situation [89][90]. - Downstream demand: - Highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment: It shows the highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025, which is related to the demand for asphalt in road construction [92][93]. - New local special bonds: It presents the new local special bonds from 2019 to 2026, which may affect the investment in infrastructure construction and the demand for asphalt [94]. - Infrastructure investment completion year - on - year: It shows the year - on - year change of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024, which is related to the demand for asphalt [94]. - Downstream machinery demand: It presents the sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2026, which is related to the construction activity and the demand for asphalt [96][98]. - Asphalt operating rate: - Heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate: It shows the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 and the average level in 2026, which helps to understand the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [101][102]. - Asphalt operating rate by use: It presents the operating rates of construction asphalt, modified asphalt, etc. from 2019 to 2025 and the average level in 2026, which helps to understand the production activity of different types of asphalt [104]. - Downstream operating situation: It shows the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2021 to 2026, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in different downstream industries [106][107][108]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: It presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including production, import, export, downstream demand, and inventory, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand situation of asphalt [111][112].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In March 2026, the total domestic asphalt production schedule was 2187,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%). This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 24.5686%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.48 percentage points. The total shipment of sample enterprises was 176,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.67%. The output of sample enterprises was 410,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1,108,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.82%. Refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand side: The开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt was 23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the开工率 of building asphalt was 6.6%, unchanged from the previous month; the开工率 of modified asphalt was 0.7302%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points; the开工率 of road - modified asphalt was 9%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage points; the开工率 of waterproofing membranes was 33%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points. Overall, current demand is below the historical average [9]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 539.7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 32.10%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 308.9886 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 83.40%. Asphalt processing losses increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [9]. - Overall judgment: The fundamentals are bullish; the basis is bearish; inventory is bullish; the market is bullish; the main positions are bullish. Considering that refineries have recently reduced production to ease supply pressure, demand is affected by the off - season and is lower than expected and sluggish, inventory is continuously decreasing, and crude oil prices are strengthening with short - term cost support, it is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2606 will fluctuate in the range of 4019 - 4159 [9]. - Influencing factors: Bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support; bearish factors are insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that supply pressure remains high, and demand recovery is weak [11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In March 2026, domestic asphalt production increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. This week, refineries reduced production, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand: The current demand of various types of asphalt and related products is generally below the historical average [9]. - Cost: Asphalt processing losses increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil strengthening is expected to support the market in the short term [9]. - Comprehensive judgment: The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2606 in the range of 4019 - 4159 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures closing prices: Most contracts showed price increases, with different rates of increase for each contract [15]. - Basis: On March 13, the spot price in Shandong was 3970 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was - 119 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price [9]. - Registered warehouse receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 94,940, a month - on - month increase of 9.86% [15]. - Some inter - month spreads: Different inter - month spreads showed different changes [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices in different regions [20][22]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main contract spreads: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which is useful for spread trading analysis [25]. - Asphalt - crude oil price trends: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026, reflecting the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [28]. - Crude oil cracking spreads: It shows the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 to 2026 [31][32]. - Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price - to - price ratios: It presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC price - to - price ratio and the asphalt - fuel oil price - to - price ratio from 2020 to 2026 [35]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the price changes in different regions [38]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: - Asphalt profit: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026 [40]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread: It presents the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026 [44]. - Supply side: - Shipment volume: It shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2026 [47]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: It presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [50]. - Production: It shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [53]. - Venezuelan crude oil price and production: It presents the historical trends of the price of Venezuelan crude oil and its monthly production from 2018 to 2026 [58]. - Local refinery asphalt production: It shows the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2026 [60]. - Capacity utilization rate: It shows the historical trends of the weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2023 to 2026 [63]. - Maintenance loss estimation: It presents the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss of asphalt from 2018 to 2026 [66]. - Inventory: - Exchange warehouse receipts: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [69]. - Social inventory and factory inventory: It presents the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2026 [73]. - Factory inventory inventory - to - sales ratio: It shows the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2026 [76]. - Import and export: - Export and import trends: It presents the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [79]. - South Korean asphalt import price spread: It shows the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import price spread from 2020 to 2026 [82]. - Demand side: - Petroleum coke production: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2026 [85]. - Apparent consumption: It presents the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [88]. - Downstream demand: - Highway construction and fixed - asset investment: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 [91]. - New local special bonds: It presents the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2026 [92]. - Infrastructure investment completion: It shows the year - on - year change of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 [92]. - Downstream machinery demand: It presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, domestic excavator sales, and roller compactor sales from 2019 to 2026, as well as the historical trends of excavator monthly working hours from 2020 to 2026 [96][98]. - Asphalt开工率: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率, asphalt开工率 by use, and downstream开工率 (including shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt开工率, road - modified asphalt开工率, and waterproofing membrane开工率) from 2019 to 2026 [100][102][105]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including monthly production, import, export, downstream demand, social inventory, factory inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [110].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamental situation of asphalt is bearish, with supply pressure expected to decrease next week due to recent production cuts by refineries. However, demand remains sluggish due to the off - season, and inventory is accumulating. Crude oil prices are weakening, reducing cost support. The asphalt 2604 contract is expected to trade in a narrow range between 3321 - 3394 [8]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support, while bearish factors are the lack of demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward trend in demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan was 1.023 million tons, a 3.30% month - on - month decrease. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 23.3701%, a 2.76 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. The national sample enterprise shipment was 154,200 tons, a 27.12% month - on - month decrease. The sample enterprise production was 390,000 tons, a 10.55% month - on - month decrease, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1.298 million tons, a 26.02% month - on - month increase [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 21.7%, a 0.11 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 was 3.3%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 was 3.7058%, a 0.91 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 2%, a 7 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 5%, a 10 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was 34.57 yuan/ton, a 25.00% month - on - month decrease. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries was 176.2071 yuan/ton, a 15.24% month - on - month increase. The asphalt processing profit decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil prices were weakening, and short - term support was expected to weaken [8]. - **Basis**: On February 26, the Shandong spot price was 3300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 04 contract was - 57 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [8]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 988,000 tons, a 5.33% month - on - month increase; factory inventory was 616,000 tons, a 5.66% month - on - month increase; port diluted asphalt inventory was 980,000 tons, a 2.08% month - on - month increase. All types of inventory were continuously accumulating, which is neutral [8]. - **Market Trend**: The MA20 was upward, and the price of the 04 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and short positions decreased, which is bearish [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report shows the prices, price changes, and basis of various asphalt futures contracts, as well as data on registered warehouse receipts, some inter - month spreads, weekly inventory, weekly开工率, weekly production and loss volume, weekly shipment volume, asphalt coking profit, and downstream demand开工率 [15][17]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [20][22]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the spreads of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [25]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026 [28]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2026 [31][32]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt and SC crude oil and asphalt and fuel oil from 2020 to 2026 [35]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - It shows the historical trends of the market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026 [38]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026 [41]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [45]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2026 [48]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [51]. - **Production**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [54]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026 [59]. - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2026 [61]. - **开工率**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2026 [64]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: It shows the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2026 [67]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [70][71]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 sample enterprises) and factory inventory (54 sample enterprises) from 2022 to 2026 [74]. - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It shows the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2026 [77]. - **Import and Export Situation** - It shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [80][83]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2026 [86]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2026 [88]. - **Downstream Demand** - It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2026 [91][92]. - It shows the historical trends of the sales of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators from 2019 to 2026 [96][98]. - **Asphalt开工率** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率**: It shows the historical trends of the heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2026 [100]. - **Asphalt开工率 by Use**: It shows the historical trends of the construction asphalt开工率 and modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2026 [102]. - **Downstream开工率**: It shows the historical trends of the开工率 of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, shoe - material TPR, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane from 2021 to 2026 [104][105]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including monthly production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, factory inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [108].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan was 1.023 million tons, a 3.30% month - on - month decrease. This week, the utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt sample production capacity was 23.3701%, a 2.76 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month. The sample enterprise output was 390,000 tons, a 10.55% decrease month - on - month, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1.298 million tons, a 26.02% increase month - on - month. Refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, and supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [7]. - Demand side: The heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate was 21.7%, a 0.11 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the building asphalt operating rate was 3.3%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt operating rate was 3.7058%, a 0.91 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt operating rate was 2%, a 7 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane operating rate was 5%, a 10 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Overall, current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was 34.57 yuan/ton, a 25.00% decrease month - on - month. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries was 176.2071 yuan/ton, a 15.24% increase month - on - month. The asphalt processing profit decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil prices are rising, and short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [7]. - Basis: On February 24, the spot price in Shandong was 3,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 04 contract was - 48 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish [7]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 988,000 tons, a 5.33% increase month - on - month; in - factory inventory was 616,000 tons, a 5.66% increase month - on - month; port diluted asphalt inventory was 980,000 tons, a 2.08% increase month - on - month. Social inventory, in - factory inventory, and port inventory all continued to accumulate. It is neutral [7]. - Market: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 04 contract closed above the MA20. It is bullish [7]. - Main positions: The net position of the main players is short, with short positions decreasing. It is bearish [7]. - Forecast: Refineries have recently reduced production schedules, easing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand improvement is limited, and overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains stable. Crude oil prices are rising, and short - term cost support is strengthening. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The asphalt 2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3,312 - 3,384 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Bullish factors: Relatively high crude oil costs provide some support [10]. - Bearish factors: Insufficient demand for high - priced products; overall demand is declining, and the expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [11]. - Main logic: On the supply side, supply pressure remains high; on the demand side, recovery is weak [12]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures closing prices: All contracts showed price increases compared to the previous day, with increases ranging from 0.62% to 3.25%. The registered warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 14,583.33% compared to the previous day, and the number of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong increased by 2.80% compared to the previous day [14]. - Weekly inventory: Social inventory increased by 5.33% to 988,000 tons; in - factory inventory increased by 5.66% to 616,000 tons; port diluted asphalt inventory increased by 2.08% to 980,000 tons [16]. - Weekly operating rate: The operating rate of Shandong refineries decreased by 25.96% to 17.4%; the national heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate decreased by 10.55% to 23.3701% [16]. - Weekly output and loss: The sample enterprise output decreased by 10.55% to 390,000 tons; the weekly maintenance volume increased by 26.02% to 1.298 million tons [16]. - Weekly shipment volume: The national shipment volume decreased by 27.12% to 154,200 tons; the shipment volume in Shandong increased by 27.58% to 42,100 tons; the shipment volume in East China decreased by 66.48% to 24,300 tons [16]. - Asphalt coking profit: The daily asphalt profit decreased by 25.11% to 34.57 yuan/ton; the weekly delayed coking asphalt price difference increased by 115.24% to 176.2071 yuan/ton [16]. - Downstream demand operating rate: The heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate decreased by 11.43% to 21.7%; the building asphalt operating rate remained unchanged at 3.3%; the modified asphalt operating rate decreased by 19.72% to 3.71%; the road - modified asphalt operating rate decreased by 77.78% to 2%; the waterproofing membrane operating rate decreased by 66.67% to 5% [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026, which can help investors understand the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [19][20][21]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main - contract spread: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which can help investors understand the price relationship between different contract months [23][24]. - Asphalt and crude oil price trends: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil prices from 2020 to 2026, which can help investors understand the price relationship between asphalt and crude oil [26][27]. - Crude oil cracking spread: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 to 2026, which can help investors understand the profit situation of asphalt refining [29][30][31]. - Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trends: The report presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2026, which can help investors understand the price relationship between asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [33][34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The report shows the historical trends of the heavy - traffic asphalt prices in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026, which can help investors understand the price trends of asphalt in different regions [36][37]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis - Asphalt profit: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026, which can help investors understand the profit situation of asphalt production [39][40]. - Coking asphalt profit spread trend: The report shows the historical trends of the coking asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026, which can help investors understand the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [42][43][44]. - Supply - side analysis - Shipment volume: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2026, which can help investors understand the supply situation of asphalt [46][47]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: The report shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026, which can help investors understand the inventory situation of diluted asphalt [49][50]. - Output: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly and monthly output of asphalt from 2019 to 2026, which can help investors understand the production situation of asphalt [52][53]. - Marru crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output trend: The report shows the historical trends of the Marru crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2026, which can help investors understand the impact of crude oil supply on asphalt production [56][57][58]. - Refinery asphalt output: The report presents the historical trends of refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2026, which can help investors understand the production situation of refinery asphalt [59][60]. - Operating rate: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly operating rate of asphalt production capacity from 2023 to 2026, which can help investors understand the production enthusiasm of asphalt enterprises [62][63]. - Estimated maintenance loss: The report presents the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss of asphalt production from 2018 to 2026, which can help investors understand the impact of equipment maintenance on asphalt supply [65][66]. - Inventory analysis - Exchange warehouse receipts: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2026, which can help investors understand the inventory situation of asphalt in the futures market [68][69][70]. - Social inventory and in - factory inventory: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026, which can help investors understand the inventory situation of asphalt in the spot market [72][73]. - In - factory inventory inventory ratio: The report shows the historical trends of the in - factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2026, which can help investors understand the inventory management situation of asphalt enterprises [75][76]. - Import and export situation analysis - Asphalt export and import trends: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, which can help investors understand the international trade situation of asphalt [78][79]. - South Korean asphalt import price difference trend: The report shows the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2026, which can help investors understand the price competitiveness of imported asphalt [82][83]. - Demand - side analysis - Petroleum coke output: The report presents the historical trends of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2026, which can help investors understand the relationship between petroleum coke production and asphalt demand [84][85]. - Apparent consumption: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025, which can help investors understand the overall demand situation of asphalt [86][87]. - Downstream demand - Highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment trends: The report presents the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025, which can help investors understand the impact of infrastructure investment on asphalt demand [89][90]. - New local special bond issuance trends: The report shows the historical trends of new local special bond issuance from 2019 to 2025, which can help investors understand the impact of government investment on asphalt demand [91]. - Infrastructure investment completion amount year - on - year growth rate: The report presents the historical trends of the infrastructure investment completion amount year - on - year growth rate from 2020 to 2024, which can help investors understand the growth situation of infrastructure investment and its impact on asphalt demand [91]. - Downstream machinery demand trends: The report shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2026, as well as the monthly operating hours of excavators from 2020 to 2026, which can help investors understand the demand situation of downstream machinery for asphalt [93][94][95]. - Asphalt operating rate - Heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate: The report presents the historical trends of the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2026, which can help investors understand the production enthusiasm of heavy - traffic asphalt [98][99]. - Asphalt operating rate by use: The report shows the historical trends of the building asphalt, modified asphalt, and other operating rates from 2019 to 2026, which can help investors understand the production situation of asphalt for different uses [101]. - Downstream operating situation: The report presents the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, shoe - material TPR, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane from 2021 to 2026, which can help investors understand the operating situation of downstream industries and their demand for asphalt [102][103][104]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: The report shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including asphalt monthly output, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - factory inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory, which can help investors understand the overall supply - demand situation of asphalt [106][107].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The refinery has reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and it is expected to further reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate is 24.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt start - up rate is 3.3%, remaining unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt start - up rate is 4.6163%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.10 percentage points; the road modified asphalt start - up rate is 9%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane start - up rate is 15%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points [8]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 29.73 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40.00%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 81.8643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.51%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. Crude oil prices remain stable, and it is expected that the cost support will remain stable in the short term [8]. - The basis on February 12 shows that the Shandong spot price is 3,210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 04 contract is - 133 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [8]. - Regarding inventory, the social inventory is 938,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.16%; the in - plant inventory is 583,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.15%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 1.01 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.24%. Social inventory continues to accumulate, in - plant inventory continues to deplete, and port inventory continues to accumulate, which is bullish [8]. - On the trading board, MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 04 contract closes above MA20, which is bullish [8]. - The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [8]. - Overall, the refinery's recent production plan has been reduced, alleviating supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is sluggish and fails to meet expectations. Inventory continues to deplete. Crude oil prices remain stable, and cost support remains stable in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2604 fluctuating in the range of 3,308 - 3,378 [8]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1. Asphalt Market Overview - Futures closing prices: The prices of most contracts decreased. For example, the 04 contract price decreased from 3,373 to 3,343, a decrease of 0.89% [15]. - Basis: The basis of most contracts changed, with the 04 contract basis changing from - 163 to - 133, a change of - 18.40% [15]. - Some inter - month spreads: The 3 - 6 spread decreased from - 12 to - 21, a change of 75.00%; the 3 - 9 spread decreased from 19 to 5, a change of - 73.68% [15]. - Registered warehouse receipts: The Shanghai Futures Exchange's registered warehouse receipts increased from 48,290 to 53,070, an increase of 9.90% [15]. - Weekly inventory: Social inventory increased to 938,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.16%; in - plant inventory decreased to 583,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.16%; port diluted asphalt inventory increased to 1.01 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.24% [17]. - Weekly start - up rate: The Shandong refinery start - up rate decreased to 23.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.49%; the national heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate decreased to 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.39% [17]. - Weekly production and loss: The sample enterprise production decreased to 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.39%; the weekly maintenance volume increased to 1.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.78% [17]. - Weekly shipment volume: The national shipment volume decreased to 211,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.33%; the Shandong shipment volume decreased to 33,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.26%; the East China shipment volume increased to 72,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.03% [17]. - Asphalt coking profit: The daily asphalt profit is - 29.73 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40.55%; the weekly delayed coking asphalt spread is 81.8643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 405.51% [17]. - Downstream demand start - up rate: The heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate decreased to 24.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.92%; the construction asphalt start - up rate remained at 3.3%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt start - up rate decreased to 4.62%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.24%; the road modified asphalt start - up rate decreased to 9.00%, a month - on - month decrease of 35.71%; the waterproofing membrane start - up rate decreased to 15.00%, a month - on - month decrease of 16.67% [17]. 3.2. Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend The report provides the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices [20][22]. 3.3. Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main contract spread: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2026, which is useful for spread trading analysis [24][25]. - Asphalt - crude oil price trend: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026, helping to understand the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [28]. - Crude oil cracking spread: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil cracking spreads from 2020 to 2026, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [30][31][32]. - Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend: It provides the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2026, which can assist in analyzing the relative value of different products [34][35]. 3.4. Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the regional price differences of asphalt [37][38]. 3.5. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: - Asphalt profit: It presents the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026, which is useful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [40][41]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread trend: It shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026, which can help to understand the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [43][44][45]. - Supply side: - Shipment volume: It shows the historical trends of weekly shipment volume from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the supply situation of asphalt [46][47]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: It presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026, which is important for understanding the inventory situation of raw materials [49][50]. - Production: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2026, which helps to analyze the supply capacity of asphalt [52][53]. - Marru oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend: It presents the historical trends of Marru oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026, which is useful for understanding the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [56][58]. - Refinery asphalt production: It shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2026, which helps to analyze the production capacity of refineries [59][60]. - Start - up rate: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt start - up rate from 2023 to 2026, which helps to analyze the production activity of the asphalt industry [62][63]. - Maintenance loss estimate: It presents the historical trends of maintenance loss estimate from 2018 to 2026, which is important for understanding the impact of maintenance on asphalt production [65][66]. - Inventory: - Exchange warehouse receipts: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2026, which helps to understand the inventory situation in the futures market [68][69][70]. - Social inventory and in - plant inventory: It presents the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026, which helps to understand the inventory situation in the spot market [72][73]. - In - plant inventory inventory ratio: It shows the historical trends of in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2026, which is useful for analyzing the inventory management of refineries [75][76]. - Import and export situation: - Asphalt export and import trends: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the international trade situation of asphalt [78][79]. - South Korean asphalt import price difference trend: It presents the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2026, which is important for analyzing the competitiveness of imported asphalt [82][83]. - Demand side: - Petroleum coke production: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the demand for petroleum coke in the asphalt industry [84][85]. - Apparent consumption: It presents the historical trends of apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025, which helps to analyze the overall demand for asphalt [87][88]. - Downstream demand: - Highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment trend: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in highway construction [90][91]. - New local special bond trend: It presents the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the investment in infrastructure construction [92]. - Infrastructure investment completion year - on - year: It shows the historical trends of infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2020 to 2024, which helps to understand the growth rate of infrastructure investment [92]. - Downstream machinery demand trend: It presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in the construction machinery industry [94][95][97]. - Asphalt start - up rate: - Heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate from 2019 to 2025, which helps to analyze the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [99][100]. - Asphalt start - up rate by use: It presents the historical trends of construction asphalt start - up rate and modified asphalt start - up rate from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the production situation of different types of asphalt [102][103]. - Downstream start - up situation: It shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt start - up rate, shoe - material TPR start - up rate, road modified asphalt start - up rate, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt start - up rate from 2021 to 2026, which helps to understand the start - up situation of downstream industries [105][106][107]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including asphalt monthly production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory, which helps to analyze the overall supply - demand situation of asphalt [109][110].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan was 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The sample capacity utilization rate was 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. The refinery reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and the supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [7]. - On the demand side, the overall demand is currently below the historical average. The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit decreased by 1040.00% month - on - month, while the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit increased by 5.51% month - on - month. The difference between asphalt and delayed coking profit increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [8]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. The main risk points are the change in crude oil price trends and the trend of the profit difference between asphalt and coking products [13][14]. - The market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock in the short term, with the asphalt 2604 contract oscillating between 3309 - 3377 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan was 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The sample capacity utilization rate was 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. The refinery reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and the supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [7]. - **Demand**: The overall demand is currently below the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 24.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 3.3%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 4.6163%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.10 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 9%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 15%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was 88.21 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1040.00%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit was 81.8643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.51%. The difference between asphalt and delayed coking profit increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock in the short term, with the asphalt 2604 contract oscillating between 3309 - 3377 [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Price and Spread**: The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and basis of various asphalt futures contracts, as well as some inter - month spreads [15]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 938,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.16%; factory inventory was 583,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.15%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 1.01 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.24% [9][17]. - **Production and Sales**: The weekly output of sample enterprises was 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. The weekly shipment volume was 211,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32% [17]. - **Profit**: The daily asphalt processing profit decreased by 1040.00% month - on - month, while the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit increased by 5.51% month - on - month [17]. - **Downstream Demand**: The overall downstream demand is currently below the historical average, with varying degrees of decline in the开工率 of different types of asphalt [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is 1.023 million tons, a 3.30% decrease from the previous month. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 27.325%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points from the previous week. The production of sample enterprises is 456,000 tons, a 4.20% decrease from the previous week, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 1.022 million tons, a 1.79% increase from the previous week. The refinery has reduced production this week, reducing supply pressure, and it is expected to reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - On the demand side, the start - up rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 25.5%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the previous week, lower than the historical average; the start - up rate of building asphalt is 3.3%, a decrease of 0.50 percentage points from the previous week, lower than the historical average; the start - up rate of modified asphalt is 5.7161%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points from the previous week, higher than the historical average; the start - up rate of road - modified asphalt is 14%, unchanged from the previous week, higher than the historical average; the start - up rate of waterproofing membranes is 18%, a decrease of 2.00 percentage points from the previous week, higher than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 128.13 yuan/ton, a 85.30% increase from the previous day. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries is 16.1943 yuan/ton, a 81.75% decrease from the previous week. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. Crude oil is strengthening, and it is expected to provide short - term support [9]. - As of February 5, the spot price in Shandong is 3,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 03 contract is - 89 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Social inventory is 892,000 tons, a 3.48% increase from the previous week; factory inventory is 602,000 tons, a 1.14% decrease from the previous week; port diluted asphalt inventory is 840,000 tons, a 90.91% increase from the previous week. Social inventory continues to accumulate, factory inventory continues to decline, and port inventory continues to accumulate [9]. - On the disk, MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 03 contract closes above MA20 [9]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing [9]. - It is expected that the refinery's recent production plan has been reduced, reducing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is difficult to boost, and overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish; inventory continues to decline; crude oil is strengthening, and cost support is strengthening in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term, and asphalt 2603 will fluctuate in the range of 3,306 - 3,372 [9]. - The bullish factor is that the crude oil cost is relatively high, providing some support [11]. - The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high on the supply side, and the recovery is weak on the demand side [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply - side analysis: In February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is 1.023 million tons, with a 3.30% month - on - month decrease. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 27.325%, a 1.20 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The production of sample enterprises is 456,000 tons, a 4.20% decrease from the previous week, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 1.022 million tons, a 1.79% increase from the previous week. The refinery has reduced production this week, reducing supply pressure, and it is expected to reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - Demand - side analysis: The start - up rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes show different trends, with the overall demand lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost analysis: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 128.13 yuan/ton, a 85.30% increase from the previous day. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries is 16.1943 yuan/ton, a 81.75% decrease from the previous week. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. Crude oil is strengthening, and it is expected to provide short - term support [9]. - Basis analysis: As of February 5, the spot price in Shandong is 3,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 03 contract is - 89 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Inventory analysis: Social inventory is 892,000 tons, a 3.48% increase from the previous week; factory inventory is 602,000 tons, a 1.14% decrease from the previous week; port diluted asphalt inventory is 840,000 tons, a 90.91% increase from the previous week. Social inventory continues to accumulate, factory inventory continues to decline, and port inventory continues to accumulate [9]. - Disk analysis: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 03 contract closes above MA20 [9]. - Main positions analysis: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing [9]. - Expectation: It is expected that the refinery's recent production plan has been reduced, reducing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is difficult to boost, and overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish; inventory continues to decline; crude oil is strengthening, and cost support is strengthening in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term, and asphalt 2603 will fluctuate in the range of 3,306 - 3,372 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the relationship between the spot and futures prices [17][18]. - **Spread analysis** - **Main - contract spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which is useful for spread trading analysis [21][22]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [24][25]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the cracking spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2026, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [27][28][29]. - **Asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratio trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt to SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the relative price relationships among them [31][32]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the situation of the asphalt spot market [34][35]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis** - **Asphalt profit**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026, which helps to understand the profitability of asphalt production [37][38]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which is important for analyzing the production choice of refineries [40][41][42]. - **Supply - side analysis** - **Shipment volume**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the supply situation of asphalt [43][44]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026, which helps to understand the inventory situation of diluted asphalt [46][47]. - **Production volume**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2026, which helps to understand the production situation of asphalt [49][50]. - **Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026, which helps to understand the impact of raw materials on asphalt production [52][54]. - **Refinery asphalt production**: The report shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the production capacity of refineries [55][57]. - **Start - up rate**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly start - up rate of asphalt from 2023 to 2026, which helps to understand the production activity of asphalt [58][59]. - **Estimated maintenance loss volume**: The report shows the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2026, which helps to understand the impact of equipment maintenance on production [61][62]. - **Inventory analysis** - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2026, which helps to understand the inventory situation in the futures market [64][65]. - **Social inventory and factory inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2026, which helps to understand the overall inventory situation of asphalt [68][69]. - **Factory inventory inventory ratio**: The report shows the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2026, which helps to understand the inventory management of refineries [72][73]. - **Import - export situation** - **Export and import trends**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the international trade situation of asphalt [75][76]. - **South Korean asphalt import price difference trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the competitiveness of imported asphalt [78][79][80]. - **Demand - side analysis** - **Petroleum coke production**: The report shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in the petroleum coke production process [81][82]. - **Apparent consumption**: The report shows the historical trends of the apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the overall demand for asphalt [84][85]. - **Downstream demand** - **Highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment**: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in highway construction [87][88]. - **New local special bonds**: The report shows the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the investment in infrastructure construction and the potential demand for asphalt [89]. - **Infrastructure investment completion year - on - year**: The report shows the historical trends of the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024, which helps to understand the development trend of infrastructure construction and the demand for asphalt [89]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: The report shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in the construction machinery field [91][92][94]. - **Asphalt start - up rate** - **Heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate**: The report shows the historical trends of the heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate from 2019 to 2025 and the average level in 2026, which helps to understand the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [96][97]. - **Asphalt start - up rate by use**: The report shows the historical trends of the start - up rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 and the average level in 2026, which helps to understand the production situation of different types of asphalt [99][100]. - **Downstream start - up situation**: The report shows the historical trends of the start - up rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, shoe - material TPR, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2021 to 2026, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in the downstream industries [102][103][104]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: The report shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including monthly production, import, export, downstream demand, social inventory, factory inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory, which helps to understand the overall supply - demand situation of asphalt [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The capacity utilization rate of the domestic petroleum asphalt sample this week is 27.325%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The sample enterprises' output is 456,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.20%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 1.022 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%. Refineries have reduced production this week, reducing supply pressure, and supply pressure may further decrease next week [8]. - The demand side shows that the operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 25.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of building asphalt is 3.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of modified asphalt is 5.7161%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the operating rate of road - modified asphalt is 14%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average; the operating rate of waterproofing membranes is 18%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 128.13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 85.30%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 16.1943 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 81.75%. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. Crude oil is weakening, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [9]. - The basis on February 3, 2026, shows that the spot price in Shandong is 3,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 03 contract is - 59 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [9]. - In terms of inventory, the social inventory is 892,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%; the refinery inventory is 602,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 840,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 90.91%. Social inventory is continuously accumulating, refinery inventory is continuously decreasing, and port inventory is continuously accumulating, which is bullish [9]. - The disk shows that MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 03 contract is above MA20, which is bullish [9]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [9]. - It is expected that refineries will reduce production in the near future, reducing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is difficult to boost, and overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish; inventory is continuously decreasing; crude oil is weakening, and cost support will weaken in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2603 will fluctuate in the range of 3,276 - 3,342 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side situation**: In February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic petroleum asphalt sample is 27.325%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The sample enterprises' output is 456,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.20%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 1.022 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%. Refineries have reduced production this week, reducing supply pressure, and supply pressure may further decrease next week [8]. - **Demand - side situation**: The operating rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes show different trends, but overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost - side situation**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 128.13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 85.30%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 16.1943 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 81.75%. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. Crude oil is weakening, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [9]. - **Basis situation**: On February 3, 2026, the spot price in Shandong is 3,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 03 contract is - 59 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [9]. - **Inventory situation**: The social inventory is 892,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%; the refinery inventory is 602,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 840,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 90.91%. Social inventory is continuously accumulating, refinery inventory is continuously decreasing, and port inventory is continuously accumulating, which is bullish [9]. - **Disk situation**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 03 contract is above MA20, which is bullish [9]. - **Main positions situation**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [9]. - **Market expectation**: It is expected that refineries will reduce production in the near future, reducing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is difficult to boost, and overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish; inventory is continuously decreasing; crude oil is weakening, and cost support will weaken in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2603 will fluctuate in the range of 3,276 - 3,342 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price and price difference trends**: The report provides price and price difference data of multiple asphalt futures contracts, including 01 - 12 contracts, as well as price and price difference trends of asphalt and crude oil, such as the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil, the spread trends of 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts, the cracking spread trends of asphalt and different types of crude oil, and the price - to - price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [16][23][26][29][33]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Price trends in different regions**: The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong, reflecting the price changes of asphalt in different regions [36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: It includes the profit trends of asphalt and the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt, which help to understand the profitability of asphalt production [39][42]. - **Supply - side analysis**: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, production volume of local refinery asphalt, operating rate, estimated maintenance loss volume, etc., which comprehensively reflect the supply - side situation of asphalt [45][48][51][57][60][63]. - **Inventory analysis**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, refinery inventory, and refinery inventory inventory - to - sales ratio, which help to understand the inventory status of asphalt [66][70][74]. - **Import and export analysis**: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price difference trends of South Korean asphalt, which help to understand the international trade situation of asphalt [77][80]. - **Demand - side analysis**: It includes aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, downstream machinery demand, asphalt operating rate, and downstream operating conditions), which comprehensively reflect the demand - side situation of asphalt [83][86][89][93][98][101][104]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: It presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt, including monthly production, import, export, downstream demand, social inventory, refinery inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [108].