瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.10」 玉米类市场周报 收割推进现货走弱 期价维持偏弱调整 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 策略建议：中长期维持偏空思路。 3 Ø 玉米： Ø 行情回顾：本周玉米期货偏弱调整。主力2511合约收盘价为2125元/吨，较节前-18元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：美国农业部发布的季度报告显示，截至9月1日，美国玉米库存为15.32亿蒲，高于分析 师平均预期的13.37亿蒲。受美国政府停摆影响，周一美国农业部未发布作物进展报告。不过，分 析师们平均预期，截至上周日，美国玉米收割完成约29%。随着美玉米收割推进，供应压力将逐 步增加，也令美玉米价格继续承压。国内方面，东北产区新玉米收割进度加快，玉米存在丰产预 期及潮粮不耐储存，基层种植户出售积极性高，贸易商多以随采随走为主，市场粮源流通量持续 增大，用粮企业承载有限导 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.26」 新季玉米上市增加 期价维持底部震荡 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 玉米类市场周报 3 Ø 行情回顾：本周玉米期货小幅收涨。主力2511合约收盘价为2178元/吨，较前一周+10元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：USDA报告预计，2025/26年度美国玉米产量将达到168.14亿蒲式耳，创历史新高，期 末库存也将达到七年来最高水平。且随着美玉米收割推进，供应压力将逐步增加。不过，从早期 收割情况来看，产量报告好坏不一，使得美玉米产量或有下调的预期。国内方面，东北产区辽宁 及黑龙江新粮收获范围扩大，种植户售粮积极性较高，新粮陆续上市供应,开秤收购的加工企业增 多,不过随着新玉米上量增多，下游需求相对低迷,深加工企业亏损加剧，收购价格有所下调。盘面 来看，随着新季玉米逐步上市，对盘面仍有所牵制。 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建 ...

玉米系产业日报 2025-09-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 1 | 2165 | | 2474 | 5 | | | 玉米月间价差(1-5):(日,元/吨) 3 玉米淀粉月间价差(11-1):(日,元/吨) | -63 | 吨) | 13 | 6 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) -17708 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | | | | | | 期货市场 | | 729266 | | 172607 | -12616 | | | -14837 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -35819 | | -38499 | -2878 | | | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) -2000 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) | 21814 | 手) | 8250 | 0 | | | 主力合约CS-C价差(日, ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For corn, maintain a bearish outlook. The USDA's supply - demand report shows an increase in the estimated planting and harvest areas of US corn in the 2025/26 season, a decrease in the estimated yield per acre, and an overall increase in production, which is higher than analysts' average expectations. In the domestic market, although low trade - grain inventories support prices, factors such as imported corn auctions, wheat for feed, approaching new - corn harvest seasons in North and Northeast China, and weak downstream demand lead to a decline in purchase prices. However, the slightly higher opening prices of new - season corn in some areas support market sentiment. [8][9][10] - For corn starch, also maintain a bearish outlook. The raw - material corn is in a new - old alternation period. Some enterprises have new maintenance due to insufficient raw - material supply, and the industry's operating rate is low. Although demand has slightly improved and inventory pressure has declined, the overall inventory is still high, and the substitution advantages of cassava starch and wheat starch squeeze the market demand for corn starch. [13][14] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Corn**: The closing price of the main 2511 contract was 2168 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton from the previous week. The USDA's report shows an increase in US corn production. Domestically, new - corn harvest is approaching, and downstream demand is weak, but the slightly higher opening prices of new - season corn support sentiment. [10] - **Corn Starch**: The closing price of the main 2511 contract was 2463 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton from the previous week. The raw - material supply is in an alternation period, the operating rate is low, demand has slightly improved, and inventory has decreased, but it is still high, and substitution products squeeze the market. [14] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Maintain a bearish outlook for both corn and corn starch. [9][13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: The 11 - month contract of corn futures closed lower with a total position of 811,835 lots, a decrease of 39,928 lots from the previous week. The 11 - month contract of corn starch futures also closed lower with a total position of 208,130 lots, a decrease of 9,924 lots from the previous week. [20] - **Top 20 Net Position Changes**: The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 4,758, and the net short position decreased compared to last week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 43,805, and the net short position also decreased. [26] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 30,658, and those of corn starch were 8,330. [32] - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of September 18, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2360.59 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 11 - month contract and the spot average price was + 192 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2800 yuan/ton and in Shandong was 2900 yuan/ton, with a stable - to - weak trend this week. The basis between the 11 - month contract and the Jilin Changchun spot was 337 yuan/ton. [37][42] - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 11 - 1 spread of corn was 10 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 11 - 1 spread of starch was - 15 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period. [48] - **Futures Spread between Starch and Corn**: The spread between the 11 - month contracts of starch and corn was 295 yuan/ton. In the 38th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 456 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous week. [58] - **Substitute Spread**: As of September 18, 2025, the spot price of wheat was 2429.61 yuan/ton, and the spot price of corn was 2360.59 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 69.02 yuan/ton. In the 38th week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 257 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton from the previous week. [63] 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - Corn - **Supply - Side: Port Inventory**: As of September 12, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 60.1 tons, a decrease of 5.50 tons from the previous week, and the foreign trade inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 72.9 tons, a decrease of 21.6 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 32.1 tons, a decrease of 1.60 tons week - on - week. [52] - **Supply - Side: Monthly Import Volume**: In August 2025, China's ordinary corn import volume was 4.00 tons, a decrease of 39.00 tons (90.70%) from the same period last year and a decrease of 2.00 tons from the previous month. [71] - **Supply - Side: Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of September 18, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 26.16 days, a decrease of 0.75 days from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.79%, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.23%. [75] - **Demand - Side: Livestock Inventory**: As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of July, the breeding sow inventory was 40.42 million, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous month, accounting for 103.6% of the normal reserve of 39 million. [79] - **Demand - Side: Processing Profit**: As of September 18, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 162 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 155 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 692 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 284 yuan/ton. [88] 3.4 Industrial Chain Situation - Corn Starch - **Supply - Side: Enterprise Inventory**: As of September 17, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.34 million tons, a decrease of 5.91%. [92] - **Supply - Side: Starch Enterprise Operation and Inventory**: From September 11 - 17, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 517,200 tons, an increase of 6,900 tons from the previous week; the national corn starch output was 249,100 tons, an increase of 5,200 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 48.15%, an increase of 1.01% from the previous week. As of September 17, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.2 million tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons from the previous week, a weekly decrease of 2.12%, a monthly decrease of 8.95%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.46%. [96] 3.5 Option Market Analysis As of September 19, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2511 contract of corn was 10.21%, an increase of 1.13% from 9.08% the previous week. The implied volatility fluctuated and rebounded, at a slightly higher level than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities. [99]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research on corn and corn starch, released on September 15, 2025, by the Commodity Research Institute [2] Group 2: Data Futures Market - For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2156 with a decrease of 11 (-0.51%), C2605 at 2229 (-8, -0.36%), C2509 at 2255 (-1, -0.04%); for corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2473 (-14, -0.57%), CS2605 at 2571 (-10, -0.39%), CS2509 at 2588 (101, 3.90%) [3] - The trading volume and open interest of most contracts showed significant changes, such as C2601's trading volume increasing by 73.58% and open interest by 1.05% [3] Spot Market and Basis - Corn spot prices varied by region, with today's quotes in Qinggang at 2230 (up 10), Jiamuji Biochemical at 2180 (unchanged), etc; starch spot prices also differed, like Longfeng at 2700 (unchanged), Zhongliang at 2750 (unchanged) [3] - The basis of corn and starch also showed different values in different regions and contracts [3] Spread - Corn inter - delivery spreads like C01 - C05 was -73 (-3), starch inter - delivery spreads like CS01 - CS05 was -98 (-4), and cross - variety spreads like CS09 - C09 was 333 (102) [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Corn - The US corn report lowered the yield per unit, and there is still room for the US corn to rebound; China has imposed tariffs on US corn and sorghum, but the import profit of foreign corn is high, with the December Brazilian import price at 2164 yuan [5] - Northern port flat - price is stable, Northeast corn spot is strong, while North China's corn spot is weak due to increased supply, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn has decreased; wheat in North China can still substitute for corn [5][7] - Domestic breeding demand is weak, downstream feed enterprises have high inventory, and corn spot is stable in the short term; with new - season corn about to be listed in large quantities, the corn spot price is expected to fall [7] Starch - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, Shandong corn spot is stable, and starch in Shandong is around 2750 yuan, while Northeast starch spot is weak [8] - This week, corn starch inventory decreased to 122.6 million tons, a decrease of 3.9 million tons from last week (monthly decrease of 6.98%, year - on - year increase of 40.3%); starch price depends on corn price and downstream stocking [8] - In the long - term, due to weak demand, starch enterprises will be in a long - term loss state; 01 starch is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [8] Group 4: Trading Strategies Unilateral - US corn has support at 400 cents per bushel; it is advisable to wait and see for 01 corn [10] Arbitrage - It is recommended to wait and see [11] Group 5: Corn Option Strategies - Enterprises with physical goods can close out short positions of corn call options, or short - term traders can try to sell at high prices and conduct rolling operations [14] Group 6: Related Graphs - The report includes graphs of various data such as corn spot prices in different regions, corn 01 contract basis, corn 1 - 5 spreads, corn starch 1 - 5 spreads, corn starch 01 contract basis, and corn starch 01 contract spreads [16][17][21]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Corn Starch Daily Report [2] - Date: September 11, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [6] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03107370 [6] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018389 [6] Group 2: Data Futures Disk - C2601: Closing price 2172, up 2 (0.09%), volume 112,026 (-43.81%), open interest 435,154 (3.08%) [3] - C2605: Closing price 2240, unchanged (0.00%), volume 16,051 (30.54%), open interest 81,333 (1.19%) [3] - C2509: Closing price 2302, up 17 (0.74%), volume 691 (DIV/0!), open interest 11,759 (0.68%) [3] - CS2601: Closing price 2497, down 5 (-0.20%), volume 17,752 (-24.92%), open interest 60,779 (4.53%) [3] - CS2605: Closing price 2584, down 4 (-0.15%), volume 346 (-53.18%), open interest 1,002 (0.40%) [3] - CS2509: Closing price 2502, unchanged (0.00%), volume 0 (DIV/0!), open interest 1,501 (0.00%) [3] Spot and Basis - Corn: Qinggang 2220 (unchanged), Jiajishenghua 2180 (unchanged), Zhucheng Xingmao 2420 (-6), Shouguang 2324 (-30), Jinzhou Port 2310 (unchanged), Nantong Port 2420 (unchanged), Guangdong Port 2450 (unchanged) [3] - Starch: Longfeng 2700 (unchanged), COFCO 2750 (unchanged), Cargill 2800 (unchanged), Yufeng 2990 (unchanged), Jinyumi 2850 (unchanged), Zhucheng Xingmao 2940 (unchanged), Hengren Gongmao 2810 (unchanged) [3] Spreads - Corn Inter - delivery: C01 - C05 -68 (up 2), C05 - C09 -62 (-17), C09 - C01 130 (up 15) [3] - Starch Inter - delivery: CS01 - CS05 -87 (-1), CS05 - CS09 82 (-4), CS09 - CS01 5 (up 5) [3] - Cross - variety: CS09 - C09 200 (-17), CS01 - C01 325 (-7), CS05 - C05 344 (-4) [3] Group 3: Market Judgment Corn - US corn prices have fallen, but there may be a rebound due to potential downward adjustment of US corn yield. China has imposed a 15% tariff on US corn, with a total of 26% tariff within the quota, and a 22% tariff on US sorghum. The import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, with the December Brazilian import price at 2116 yuan. The northern port closing price is stable at around 2310 yuan, and the spot price in the northeast corn - producing area is relatively strong. The supply in North China has increased, leading to a decline in the spot price, and the price difference between northeast and North China corn has narrowed. The wheat price in North China is weak, and the price difference between wheat and corn is small, so wheat continues to be a substitute. The domestic breeding demand is still weak, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is high. The corn spot price is relatively stable in the short term. Due to recent imports and domestic corn auctions, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new - season corn, the corn spot price is expected to decline. It is estimated that by the end of September, the North China corn price may reach 2200 yuan/ton, and the price in Heilongjiang may be below 2100 yuan/ton [5][7] Starch - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the Shandong corn spot price is stable. The starch price in Shandong is around 2750 yuan, and the northeast starch spot price is also weak. This week, the corn starch inventory has decreased to 122.6 million tons, a decrease of 3.9 million tons from last week, a monthly decrease of 6.98% and a year - on - year increase of 40.3%. The current starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. The average income from by - products in the past few years has been over 600 yuan, and today the by - product contribution in Shandong is 630 yuan (670 yuan in Heilongjiang). The by - product price is still strong, much higher than last year, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. The North China corn price is stable in the short term, while the northeast corn price is relatively weak. In the medium and long term, due to weak starch demand, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state. Today, the 01 starch contract has followed the corn price in a weak shock. The North China corn price still has room to fall by early October, and the corn starch spot price will also decline later. The loss of North China deep - processing plants will expand, and it is expected that the 01 starch contract on the short - term disk will continue to be in a weak shock [8] Group 4: Trading Strategies - For the US corn, there is support at 400 cents per bushel. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for the 01 corn contract. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [10][11] Group 5: Corn Option Strategies - Spot - holding enterprises can close out their short positions in corn call options, or they can try to gradually sell at high prices in the short term and conduct rolling operations [14] Group 6: Related Attachments - The report includes six figures, namely the spot price of corn in various regions, the basis of the corn 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of corn, the 1 - 5 spread of corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 01 contract, and the spread of the corn starch 01 contract [16][17][21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn continues to rebound, and there may be a downward adjustment of the US corn yield per unit later, indicating potential for further rebound. China has reinstated a 15% tariff on US corn, with a total of 26% tariff within the quota, and a 22% tariff on US sorghum. The import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, with the import price from Brazil in December at 2,140 yuan. The domestic corn spot market is expected to decline with the upcoming large - scale listing of new - season corn, and the 01 corn futures may also fall. The starch market is mainly influenced by corn prices and downstream inventory. With weak long - term demand, starch enterprises will be in a long - term loss state, and the 01 starch futures are expected to decline in the short term [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: On September 3, 2025, most corn and corn starch futures contracts showed price declines. For example, C2601 closed at 2,182, down 1 (-0.05%); CS2601 closed at 2,520, down 15 (-0.60%). The trading volume of most contracts decreased, while the open interest of some contracts increased. For instance, the trading volume of C2601 decreased by 39.78%, and the open interest of CS2601 increased by 13.13% [3]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in Qinggang increased by 10 yuan to 2,145 yuan, while prices in other regions remained stable. Starch spot prices in all listed regions remained unchanged. The basis of corn and starch in different regions varied, with corn basis ranging from - 114 to 203 yuan and starch basis from 203 to 393 yuan [3]. - **Spreads**: In the corn market, C01 - C05 spread was - 63, up 3; in the starch market, CS01 - CS05 spread was - 77, down 3. The cross - variety spreads such as CS09 - C09 was 215, up 3 [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Corn**: The US corn market has upward potential. In the domestic market, the northern port flat - hatch prices are stable, while the northeast corn spot is weak. The supply in North China has increased, and the corn price is stable. The wheat price in North China is weak, and wheat continues to substitute for corn. The domestic breeding demand is weak, and the downstream feed enterprises have high inventory. With the upcoming large - scale listing of new - season corn, the corn spot price is expected to decline. It is predicted that by the end of September, the corn price in North China may reach 2,200 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang, it may be around 2,100 yuan/ton [5][7]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants is stable, and the corn price in Shandong is stable. The starch price in Shandong is around 2,800 yuan, and the northeast starch spot is weak. This week, the corn starch inventory decreased to 126.5 million tons, a decrease of 5.3 million tons from last week, with a monthly decline of 4.2% and a year - on - year increase of 37.2%. The starch price is mainly affected by corn prices and downstream inventory. In the long - term, due to weak demand, enterprises will be in a loss state. The 01 starch futures are expected to decline in the short term [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The US corn has support at 400 cents per bushel. It is recommended to mainly observe the 01 corn [10]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to observe [11]. 3.4 Corn Options - For enterprises with spot, it is recommended to close out short positions of corn call options. Short - term traders can try to sell on rallies and conduct rolling operations [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The US corn continues to rebound, and there may be a downward adjustment to the US corn yield per unit later, indicating potential for further rebound. The import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, and the import price from Brazil in December is 2131 yuan. The domestic corn spot is expected to decline with the approaching large - scale listing of new - season corn [5][7]. - The starch price is mainly influenced by corn price and downstream stocking. With weak starch demand in the medium - to - long - term, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state, and the short - term spot price of corn starch is also expected to fall [8]. - For trading strategies, the 01 corn contract is recommended to close long positions and wait and see, and the option strategy for enterprises with spot is to close short positions on corn call options or try short - term high - selling and rolling operations [10][14]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Data - **Futures Disk**: For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2183 with a 0.05% increase, C2605 at 2249 with a 0.09% decrease, and C2509 at 2265 with a 0.44% increase. For corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2535 with no change, CS2605 at 2609 with a 0.04% decrease, and CS2509 at 2477 with a 0.16% decrease. Trading volumes and open interest of each contract showed different degrees of change [3]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in different regions were stable today, with basis values ranging from - 130 to 197. Starch spot prices were also stable, and basis values ranged from 191 to 381 [3]. - **Spreads**: Corn and starch inter - delivery spreads and cross - variety spreads showed different changes, such as the C01 - C05 spread being - 66 with a 3 - point increase, and the CS09 - C09 spread being 212 with a 14 - point decrease [3]. Part 2: Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn has a rebound space. China's tariffs on US corn and sorghum are adjusted. The import profit of foreign corn is high. The northern port's flat - hatch price is stable, the northeast corn spot is weak, the north China corn is stable, and the wheat - corn substitution continues. With the approaching large - scale listing of new - season corn, the corn spot price is expected to fall [5][7]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants is stable, and the starch spot price is stable. The corn starch inventory decreased this week. The starch price is mainly affected by corn price and downstream stocking. In the medium - to - long - term, the demand is weak, and the short - term spot price is expected to decline [8]. Part 3: Corn Options - Option Strategy: Enterprises with spot are recommended to close short positions on corn call options, or try short - term high - selling and rolling operations [14]. Part 4: Related Attachments - The attachments include various charts such as those showing corn spot prices in different regions, corn and corn starch basis and spreads, providing historical data and trends for reference [16][18][22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: In the domestic market, the new corn season is approaching in the Northeast production area. Reserve rotation corn is continuously released to supplement market supply. Traders' confidence in price support has weakened, accelerating the sale of remaining grains. Feed - using enterprises have relatively sufficient inventories and low procurement enthusiasm, preferring to wait for new grains. Some price - setting enterprises have continuously lowered their quotes. Recently, due to short - covering by bears, the corn futures price has rebounded slightly from the low level [2]. - **Corn Starch**: With the resumption of work of previously overhauled enterprises, the operating rate of the corn starch industry has rebounded recently, increasing supply - side pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand is still in the off - season, with poor order signing and shipment. The supply of corn starch far exceeds demand, and inventory pressure remains high. Affected by the corn rebound, the starch price has oscillated higher [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: The closing price of the active corn starch futures contract is 2193 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan), and that of the active corn futures contract is 2500 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan). The 1 - 5 corn monthly spread is - 69 yuan/ton, and the 11 - 1 corn starch monthly spread is - 35 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan). The active - contract positions of yellow corn and corn starch are 974389 hands and 205537 hands respectively, with the latter down 3350 hands. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn starch and corn are - 83289 hands and - 35460 hands respectively, with the latter down 427 hands. The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn and corn starch are 67737 hands and 7450 hands respectively, with the former down 1689 hands. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 226 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) [2]. - **CBOT Futures**: The closing price of the active CBOT corn futures contract is 9.25 cents/bushel. The total CBOT corn positions are 1456701 contracts (down 109666 contracts), and the non - commercial net long positions are - 70940 contracts (up 34270 contracts) [2]. Spot Market - **Corn Spot**: The average spot price of corn is 2364.12 yuan/ton (down 0.59 yuan), the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2280 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), and the CIF price of imported corn is 1926.14 yuan/ton (down 15.15 yuan). The international freight of imported corn is 0 dollars/ton. The basis of the corn main contract is - 2.59 yuan [2]. - **Corn Starch Spot**: The ex - factory quotes of corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2660 yuan/ton, 2900 yuan/ton, and 2830 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 160 yuan (up 1 yuan), and the weekly spread between Shandong starch and corn is 370 yuan/ton (up 34 yuan) [2]. - **Substitute Spot**: The average spot price of wheat is 2428.06 yuan/ton (down 0.83 yuan), the weekly spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 184 yuan/ton (up 27 yuan), and the daily spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 67 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 398.93 million hectares, etc. The predicted corn yields in these countries are 35.12 million tons, 22.6 million tons, 7.5 million tons, 44.3 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively (only the US yield is down 0.25 million tons) [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The corn inventories at southern ports, northern ports, and deep - processing enterprises are 9.9 million tons, 175 million tons, and 294.2 million tons respectively, with the latter down 20.5 million tons. The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 131.8 million tons (down 2.1 million tons, a 1.57% weekly decrease, 0.53% monthly increase, and 31.41% year - on - year increase) [2][3]. - **Trade Volume**: The monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons (down 10 million tons), and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 15940 tons (up 1440 tons) [2]. - **Output**: The monthly output of feed is 2827.3 million tons (down 110.4 million tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - The average inventory days of sample feed corn is 28.13 days (down 0.72 days). The deep - processing corn consumption is 114.02 million tons (up 0.4 million tons). The operating rates of alcohol and starch enterprises are 42.87% and 51.01% respectively, with the latter down 1.29% [2]. - The processing profits of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are - 117 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan), - 51 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan), and - 79 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan) respectively [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities of corn are 7.91% (up 0.02%) and 6.37% (down 0.17%) respectively. The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options on corn are 10.01% (up 0.18%) and 10.02% (up 0.19%) respectively [2]. Industry News - Brazilian ethanol producer Inpasa and grain processing and export giant Amaggi will establish a joint venture to build at least three new corn ethanol plants in Mato Grosso [2]. - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) reported that the corn harvest in Argentina is nearing completion. As of August 27, the harvest progress of the 2024/25 Argentine corn crop was 97.2%, 1.3% higher than a week ago [2]. - Pro Farmer's final yield forecast report shows that the total US corn production in 2025 is expected to reach 1.6204 billion bushels, with an average yield of 182.7 bushels per acre, which is a record high but lower than the USDA's August forecast of 1.6742 billion bushels and 188.8 bushels per acre [2]. Key Points of Concern - Monitor the weekly corn consumption and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday as reported by Mysteel [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a bearish trading strategy for both corn and corn starch. Corn futures are in a weak trend due to increased US production and inventory, upcoming new - grain harvest in China, and sufficient supply. Corn starch futures also show a weak trend as the industry's operating rate rises while demand is in the off - season, resulting in a supply - demand imbalance [7][8][11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Corn**: The main 2511 contract of corn futures closed at 2175 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous week. The USDA raised the production and ending stocks of US corn in the 2025/26 season. The new grain in Northeast China will be on the market in September, and the supply is relatively loose. The spot market price is under pressure, and the overall trend of corn is weak [8] - **Corn Starch**: The main 2511 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2498 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton from the previous week. The operating rate of the corn starch industry has rebounded, but the downstream demand is in the off - season. As of August 20, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises was 133.9 million tons, showing an increase in inventory. The overall trend of starch is weak [12] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: The November contract of corn futures closed down with a total position of 955,265 lots, an increase of 126,808 lots from the previous week. The November contract of corn starch futures closed down narrowly with a total position of 202,789 lots, an increase of 64,168 lots from the previous week [16] - **Top 20 Net Position Changes**: The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 97,205, an increase in net short positions compared to the previous week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 20,670, also an increase in net short positions compared to the previous week [22] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 103,290, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 7,450 [28] - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of August 22, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,373.53 yuan/ton, and the basis between the November active contract of corn and the average spot price was + 198 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,850 yuan/ton and 2,950 yuan/ton in Shandong, remaining stable this week. The basis between the November contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 352 yuan/ton [33][38] - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 11 - 1 spread of corn was 3 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 11 - 1 spread of starch was - 29 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [44] - **Futures Spread**: The spread between the November contracts of starch and corn was 323 yuan/ton. In the 34th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 336 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [54] - **Substitute Spread**: As of August 20, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,436.5 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,384.71 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 51.79 yuan/ton. In the 34th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 157 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [58] 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Corn Supply**: As of August 15, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 66.9 million tons, a decrease of 7.9 million tons from the previous week, and the foreign trade inventory was 0.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 151.1 million tons, a decrease of 26.3 million tons week - on - week. The shipping volume of the four northern ports was 32.9 million tons, an increase of 8.2 million tons week - on - week. In July 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 6 million tons, a decrease of 103 million tons compared to the same period last year and a decrease of 10 million tons compared to the previous month. As of August 21, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 28.85 days, a decrease of 0.76 days from the previous week [48][67][71] - **Corn Demand**: As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.43 million, an increase of 10,000 compared to the previous month. As of August 15, 2025, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 28.85 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 157.05 yuan/head. As of August 21, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 46 yuan/ton, and the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 685 yuan/ton, - 551 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 168 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [75][79][84] - **Corn Starch Supply**: As of August 20, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 314.7 million tons, a decrease of 7.5%. From August 14 to August 20, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 54.9 million tons, a decrease of 2.7 million tons from the previous week. The national corn starch output was 27.06 million tons, a decrease of 1.86 million tons from the previous week. The weekly operating rate was 52.3%, a decrease of 3.6% from the previous week. As of August 20, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises was 133.9 million tons, an increase of 0.7 million tons from the previous week [88][92] 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of August 22, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2511 contract of corn was 9.73%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous week. The implied volatility fluctuated and declined this week, being at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [95]