交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-11-26 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：生产利润修复乏力但供给收缩不及预期；地产拖累下游深加工订单偏弱，库存同期历 史高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货980元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1014元/吨，基差为-34元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6330.30万重量箱，较前一周增加0.09%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、沙河地区"煤改气" ，行业冷修，产量损失。 利空： 1、地产终端需求依然疲弱，玻璃深加工企业订单 ...

Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周玻璃观点：短线止跌 中期震荡市 | 供应 | 周内浮法玻璃产线有所变化，东北一条产线放水，无点火产线，周产量环比下降。截至20251120， 国内玻璃生产线在剔除僵尸产线后共计 | | --- | --- | | | 296条(20万吨/日），其中在产221条，冷修停产75条，截至2025年11月20日，全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.81万吨，比13日-0.66%。 | | | 截至20251117，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值9.9天，环比-8.9%，同比-24.2%。进入11月，各大区深加工样本持有订单均值环比月初均有 | | 需求 | 下滑，订单疲软态势也导致部分加工厂出现阶段性放假现象，目前调研的深加工所持订单天数较少在2-5天居多，另有排期集中在7-15天，亦 | | | 有少数工程订单排期较长，临近年末，欠款类订单深加工签单依旧保持谨慎心态。 | | 库存 | 截止到20251120，全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6330.3万重箱，环比+5.6万重箱，环比+0.09%，同 ...

纯碱玻璃周报 研究员：李轩怡 期货从业证号：F03108920 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018403 目录 第一章 核心逻辑分析 2 第二章 周度数据追踪 10 单位：万吨 纯碱产量 纯碱联碱法开工率 单位：% 纯碱氨碱法开工率 单位：% 50.00% 55.00% 60.00% 65.00% 70.00% 75.00% 80.00% 85.00% 90.00% 95.00% 100.00% 2025 2024 2023 2022 50.00% 55.00% 60.00% 65.00% 70.00% 75.00% 80.00% 85.00% 90.00% 95.00% 100.00% 2025 2024 2023 2022 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 第53 周 第50 周 第47 周 第44 周 第41 周 第38 周 第35 周 第32 周 第29 周 第26 周 第23 周 第20 周 第17 周 第14 周 第11 周 第8周 第5周 第2周 2025年度 2024年度 2023年度 2022年度 2021年度 2020年度 GALAXY FUTURES 2 本周纯碱产量73. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to expect a weak and volatile trend [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass futures market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling last week, with the weekly line closing as a doji with an upper shadow. The short - term technical signals were favorable during the week but were suppressed by the fundamental reality. With the implementation of the production line shutdown plan, the futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. In the future, there is no strong positive expectation in the short and medium - term. The replenishment sentiment of the mid - and downstream is low at the end of the year, and the demand may continue to weaken. Considering the relatively high inventory and the delivery pressure in the near - month contracts, it is recommended to hold out - of - the - money call options on the glass 01 contract until expiration or look for short - selling opportunities when the 01 contract briefly rallies, with a reference range of 1140 - 1150 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Investment Strategy - The main logic is that the glass futures price was affected by the production line shutdown and fundamental suppression last week. In the future, due to weak demand and high inventory, the market is expected to be weak and volatile. The recommended operations are to hold out - of - the - money call options on the glass 01 contract until expiration or short - sell on rallies [3]. 3.2 Market Review - Price - **Spot price**: As of November 7, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1300 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1140 yuan/ton (+20) in Central China, and 1240 yuan/ton (-10) in East China. - **Futures price**: Last Friday, the glass 01 contract closed at 1091 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan for the week [11]. 3.3 Market Review - Spread - **Soda - glass spread**: As of November 7, the soda futures price was 1210 yuan, the glass futures price was 1091 yuan, and the spread between them was 119 yuan/ton (-23). - **Basis**: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 01 contract was 49 yuan/ton (+62). - **Contract spread**: Last Friday, the 01 - 05 spread was - 134 yuan/ton (+15) [12][17]. 3.4 Profit - **Natural gas process**: The cost was 1574 yuan/ton (-2), and the gross profit was - 334 yuan/ton (-8). - **Coal - gas process**: The cost was 1211 yuan/ton (+24), and the gross profit was - 81 yuan/ton (-24). - **Petroleum coke process**: The cost was 1092 yuan/ton (+2), and the gross profit was 48 yuan/ton (+18). - **Fuel prices**: On November 7, the industrial natural gas price in Hebei was 3.8 yuan/m³, the CIF price of US 3% sulfur shot coke was 170 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 672 yuan/ton [20]. 3.5 Supply - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 157,505 tons/day (-2650), with 222 production lines in operation. There were multiple production line changes including shutdowns, restarts, new ignitions, and product conversions [22][24]. 3.6 Inventory - As of November 7, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 6313.6 million weight boxes (-265.4). Inventories in different regions showed different trends, with some decreasing and some increasing [27]. 3.7 Deep - processing - On November 6, the comprehensive production - sales rate of float glass was 114% (unchanged). On November 7, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 44.8% (+0.5%). In mid - October, the available order days for glass deep - processing were 10.4 days (-0.1) [28]. 3.8 Demand - Automobile - In September, China's automobile production was 3.276 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 461,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 480,000 vehicles. Sales were 3.226 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 369,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 417,000 vehicles. In September, the retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in China was 1.296 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 57.8% [39]. 3.9 Demand - Real Estate - In September, China's real estate completion area was 34.3534 million m² (unchanged year - on - year), new construction area was 55.9831 million m² (-15% year - on - year), construction area was 54.7081 million m² (-16% year - on - year), and commercial housing sales area was 85.3087 million m² (-12% year - on - year). From October 27 to November 2, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.03 million m², a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year decrease of 38%. In September, the real estate development investment was 739.652 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21% [45]. 3.10 Cost - Soda Ash - Price - As of last weekend, the mainstream market prices of heavy soda ash were: 1325 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1250 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China, 1300 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1450 yuan/ton (unchanged) in South China. Last Friday, the soda ash 2601 contract closed at 1210 yuan/ton (-15), and the basis of the soda ash Central China 01 contract was 90 yuan/ton (+15) [47][52]. 3.11 Cost - Soda Ash - Profit - As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - alkali method for soda ash enterprises was 1359 yuan/ton (+7), and the gross profit was - 44 yuan/ton (-2); the cost of the combined production method was 1791 yuan/ton (-1), and the gross profit was - 174 yuan/ton (-9). Other prices included the Hubei synthetic ammonia market price of 2250 yuan/ton (+65) and the Xuzhou Fengcheng ammonium chloride wet ammonium ex - factory price of 300 yuan/ton (unchanged) [55][56]. 3.12 Cost - Soda Ash - Inventory - Last weekend, the exchange's soda ash warehouse receipts were 8314 pieces (-237). As of September 25, the total national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 171.42 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.22 million tons), including 89.96 million tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 1.32 million tons) and 81.46 million tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 million tons). Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 74.68 million tons (a week - on - week decrease of 1.08 million tons), including 41.48 million tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 million tons) and 33.2 million tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 million tons) [68][69]. 3.13 Cost - Soda Ash - Apparent Demand - Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 40.16 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.63 million tons; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 33.30 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.32 million tons. The production - sales rate of soda ash last week was 98.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.65%. In October, the inventory of sample float glass factories was equivalent to 21.6 days of soda ash consumption [73][76].

Core Viewpoint - The glass futures market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors, with prices oscillating within a narrow range of 1080-1120, while inventory levels have shown a decline over the past two weeks, raising questions about a potential rebound in the glass market [1][3]. Market Review - Since late October, glass futures have mostly traded within the 1080-1120 range, indicating limited upward or downward movement. As of November 7, prices are again in a narrow consolidation phase [1]. - The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises remains high at 63.136 million heavy boxes, despite a week-on-week decrease of 2.654 million heavy boxes, representing a decline of 4.03%. However, this figure is still up 29.05% year-on-year [3][7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The glass market is characterized by a fierce battle between supply and demand. High inventory levels on the supply side and weak demand are suppressing price rebounds, while cost support and production line upgrades provide some bottom support [3]. - From January to September, the area of completed real estate projects in China decreased by 15.3%, and the average order days for deep processing were only 10.8 days, leading some companies to face a "no orders" situation [3]. Cost Support - Despite a decline in spot prices, the profit margins for the float glass industry remain within an acceptable range, with current profit levels at the median for the year. However, if profits continue to decline, cost support may gradually become more significant [4]. - As of November 6, the gross profit for float glass production using coal as fuel is 78.1 yuan/ton, while using petroleum coke and natural gas results in negative margins of -1.77 yuan/ton and -172.7 yuan/ton, respectively [4]. - The recent "coal-to-gas" initiative in the Shihezi area has garnered market attention, potentially leading to short-term supply reductions and increased production costs by 80-100 yuan/ton due to fuel price differences [4]. Inventory Trends - The recent two-week decline in glass enterprise inventories has provided some positive signals, with total inventory dropping to 63.136 million heavy boxes as of November 6. However, this decline may merely reflect a transfer of inventory from enterprises to social stock rather than a genuine improvement in end-user demand [7]. Market Outlook - In the short term, the ongoing struggle between high inventory and cost support is expected to continue, with the 1080-1120 yuan/ton range likely to persist. Traders may consider a high-sell low-buy strategy while monitoring potential breakout points [9]. - Future breakthroughs in glass futures may arise from either a contraction in supply or a substantial improvement in demand, particularly in the real estate sector, which remains in a bottoming cycle [9][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply has bottomed out and is rising, but there are many supply-side disturbances. The downstream deep-processing orders are weak, and the real estate terminal demand is sluggish. The inventory is increasing, and the price is running below the 20-day line. The main position is net short, and the shorts are increasing. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1092 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.44% from the previous value. The spot price of Shahe Safety large boards was 1052 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. The main basis was -40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.57% from the previous value. [7] Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1052 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. [12] Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - No specific content provided Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines nationwide was 226, with an operating rate of 76.35%. The daily melting volume of float glass nationwide was 161,300 tons, and the production capacity was at the lowest level in the same period in history and was stabilizing and rebounding. [23][25] Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons. The real estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep-processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The deep-processing industry's capital collection is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory. [29][5] Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 66.613 million weight boxes, an increase of 3.64% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the five-year average. [44] Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply and demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio. [45] Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti-involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. Some production lines in the Shahe area are undergoing "coal-to-gas" conversion, increasing supply-side disturbances. [4] - **Negative Factors**: The real estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep-processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The deep-processing industry's capital collection is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory. [5] Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period. Recently, there have been more supply-side disturbances, but the terminal demand recovery is weak. It is expected that the glass will mainly fluctuate. [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints - In the glass market, spot prices in various regions showed different trends, with some increasing and some remaining stable, and the production - sales situation also varied by region. In the soda ash market, factory inventory decreased significantly while delivery warehouses had a small increase, and downstream demand was driven by pre - holiday restocking [2]. Summary by Related Content Glass - **Spot Price Changes**: From September 19th to September 26th, the price of 5mm large - plate glass in Shahe Security increased from 1155.0 to 1224.0, a weekly increase of 69.0 and a daily increase of 17.0; Wuhan Changli's 5mm large - plate glass price rose from 1100.0 to 1180.0, a weekly increase of 80.0 and a daily increase of 40.0. However, the prices of Shandong and South China's 5mm large - plate glass remained unchanged [2]. - **Futures Contract Price Changes**: The FG05 contract price decreased from 1383.0 on September 25th to 1372.0 on September 26th, a daily decrease of 11.0; the FG01 contract price dropped from 1270.0 to 1252.0, a daily decrease of 18.0 [2]. - **Price Difference Changes**: The FG 1 - 5 spread was - 120.0 on September 26th, with a weekly increase of 7.0 and a daily decrease of 7.0; the 01 Hebei basis was - 49.0 on September 26th, with a weekly increase of 24.0 and a daily increase of 23.0 [2]. - **Profit Changes**: North China's coal - fired profit increased from 291.6 on September 25th to 302.2 on September 26th, a daily increase of 10.6; North China's natural gas profit increased from - 159.3 to - 150.1, a daily increase of 9.2 [2]. - **Production - Sales Situation**: The production - sales rates in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 104, 108, 116, and 157 respectively [2]. Soda Ash - **Spot Price Changes**: From September 19th to September 26th, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased from 1230.0 to 1200.0, a weekly decrease of 30.0 and a daily decrease of 20.0; North China's light soda price dropped from 1170.0 to 1120.0, a weekly decrease of 50.0 and a daily decrease of 10.0 [2]. - **Futures Contract Price Changes**: The SA05 contract price decreased from 1404.0 on September 25th to 1384.0 on September 26th, a daily decrease of 20.0; the SA01 contract price dropped from 1315.0 to 1293.0, a daily decrease of 22.0 [2]. - **Price Difference Changes**: The SA01 - SA05 spread was - 91.0 on September 26th, a weekly decrease of 2.0 and a daily decrease of 2.0; the SA01 Shahe basis was - 93.0 on September 26th, a weekly decrease of 5.0 and a daily increase of 2.0 [2]. - **Profit Changes**: North China's ammonia - soda process profit decreased from - 152.0 on September 25th to - 168.8 on September 26th, a daily decrease of 16.8; North China's combined - soda process profit dropped from - 175.0 to - 192.4, a daily decrease of 17.4 [2]. - **Inventory Situation**: Factory inventory decreased significantly, while delivery warehouses had a small increase, and overall inventory decreased [2].

Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The glass market has a neutral fundamental situation. During the peak season, demand provides weak support at the lower end, while there are positive factors such as macro - news and environmental policies at the upper end. Technically, the bulls are continuous and stable, and the bears are discontinuous, so the glass futures price often has a lower shadow line. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy for the 01 contract, paying attention to the support level of 1150 - 1160 [3][4]. - The callback - buying strategy is recommended for glass investment. The main logic is that the glass fundamentals have no obvious changes, the price is affected by coal environmental protection news, the inventory is generally decreasing, the cost of coal - gas production has increased, and the demand from the middle and lower reaches has a short - term replenishment [3]. Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - Strategy: Callback buying [3][5]. - Main Logic: Last week, glass futures first rose and then fell. The fundamentals remained unchanged, and the price followed the coking coal futures due to coal environmental protection news. There were no changes in production lines, and the daily melting volume remained the same. The national factory inventory continued to decline, but the inventory in North China increased slightly due to rumors of production suspension in Shahe. The inventory in Hubei continued to decline, and the orders of processing plants in East and South China were good. The cost of coal - gas production increased, and the profit decreased, while the profit of petroleum - coke production increased. The middle and lower reaches had short - term replenishment, and the market sentiment improved. The supply and inventory of soda ash decreased slightly, and it was expected to fluctuate recently considering future capacity expansion [3]. - Outlook: The glass fundamentals are neither good nor bad. In the peak season, demand provides weak support, and there are positive factors such as macro - news and environmental policies. Technically, the bulls are strong, so a long - position strategy for the 01 contract is maintained, with attention to the 1150 - 1160 support level [4]. 02 Market Review: Spot Price Increase - Spot Price: As of September 19, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,150 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,140 yuan/ton (+30) in Central China, and 1,230 yuan/ton (+10) in East China. - Futures Price: Last Friday, the glass 01 contract closed at 1,216 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan for the week [12]. 03 Market Review: Widening of Monthly Spreads - Soda Ash - Glass Spread: As of September 19, the soda ash futures price was 1,318 yuan/ton, and the glass futures price was 1,216 yuan/ton, with a spread of 102 yuan/ton (-8). - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 01 contract was - 106 yuan/ton (+4). - Contract Spread: Last Friday, the 01 - 05 spread was - 127 yuan/ton (-23) [13][17]. 04 Profit: Increase in Gas Cost - Natural Gas Process: The cost was 1,579 yuan/ton (+1), and the gross profit was - 349 yuan/ton (+9). - Coal - Gas Process: The cost was 1,181 yuan/ton (+22), and the gross profit was - 31 yuan/ton (-22). - Petroleum - Coke Process: The cost was 1,093 yuan/ton (+1), and the gross profit was 47 yuan/ton (+29). - Fuel Prices: On September 19, the industrial natural gas price in Hebei was 3.8 yuan/m³, the CIF price of US 3% sulfur shot coke was 165 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 598 yuan/ton [20]. 05 Supply: Unchanged - Daily Melting Volume: Last Friday, the glass daily melting volume was 159,455 tons/day (unchanged), with 225 production lines in operation [22]. - Production Line Changes: There were cold - repairs, restarts, new ignitions, and product conversions in some production lines [23][24]. 06 Inventory: Continued Inventory Reduction - National Inventory: As of September 19, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers was 6,090.8 million weight boxes (-67.5). - Regional Inventory: The inventory in North China was 955.5 million weight boxes (+30.9), in Central China was 589 million weight boxes (-33.7), in East China was 1,320.7 million weight boxes (-18.1), in South China was 941.7 million weight boxes (-13.8), in Southwest China was 1,248 million weight boxes (+5.6), the Shahe factory inventory was 278 million weight boxes (+31), and the Hubei factory inventory was 417 million weight boxes (-32) [26]. - Production and Sales Rate: On September 18, the comprehensive production and sales rate of float glass was 100% (+4). - LOW - E Glass: On September 19, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 48.1% (+1). - Order Days: In mid - September, the order days of glass deep - processing were 10.5 days (+0.1) [32]. 07 Deep - Processing: Recovery and Maintenance of Production and Sales Rate - The production and sales rate of glass deep - processing recovered and was maintained. The order days and the operating rate of LOW - E glass showed certain trends [32][34]. 08 Demand: Intense Competition in Automobile Prices, Year - on - Year Growth in Production and Sales - Automobile: In August, China's automobile production was 2.815 million units, a month - on - month increase of 224,000 units and a year - on - year increase of 323,000 units. The sales volume was 2.857 million units, a month - on - month increase of 264,000 units and a year - on - year increase of 404,000 units. - New - Energy Automobile: In August, the retail volume of new - energy passenger cars in China was 1.101 million units, with a penetration rate of 55.2% [42]. 09 Demand: Decline in Real Estate Development Investment - Real Estate: In August, China's real estate completion area was 26.5913 million m², a year - on - year decrease of 21%; the new construction area was 45.9487 million m² (-20%); the construction area was 43.7767 million m² (-29%); and the commercial housing sales area was 57.4415 million m² (-11%). - Transaction Area: From September 13 to September 19, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.54 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 2%. - Development Investment: In August, the real estate development investment was 672.942 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 20% [48]. 10 Cost - Side: Soda Ash - Market Price Increase - Spot Price: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,325 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,250 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China, 1,300 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1,450 yuan/ton (unchanged) in South China. - Factory Price: The ex - factory prices of some heavy soda ash enterprises had certain changes. - Futures Price: Last Friday, the soda ash 2601 contract closed at 1,318 yuan/ton (+28). - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of soda ash in Central China for the 09 contract was - 18 yuan/ton (-28) [51][55][56]. 11 Cost - Side: Soda Ash - Cost Increase - Profit: As of last Friday, the profit of soda ash was - 71 yuan/ton (-16). - Other Prices: Last Friday, the market price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei was 2,100 yuan/ton (+111), and the ex - factory price of wet ammonium chloride in Xuzhou Fengcheng was 310 yuan/ton (unchanged). - Production Cost: The cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash enterprises was 1,320 yuan/ton (+44), with a gross profit of - 37 yuan/ton (unchanged); the cost of the co - production process was 1,739 yuan/ton (+57), with a gross profit of - 71 yuan/ton (-16) [57][58][59]. 12 Cost - Side: Soda Ash - Inventory Reduction - Production: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 74.57 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1.54 million tons), including 41.77 million tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 million tons) and 32.8 million tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 million tons). The loss was 12.62 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.53 million tons). - Warehouse Receipts: At the end of last week, the number of soda ash warehouse receipts in the exchange was 0 (a month - on - month decrease of 6916). - Inventory: As of September 19, the national factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7556 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 41,900 tons), including 1.0061 million tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 28,400 tons) and 749,500 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 13,500 tons) [72]. 13 Cost - Side: Soda Ash - Improvement in Apparent Demand - Apparent Consumption: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 446,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 tons; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 341,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14,900 tons. - Production and Sales Rate: Last week, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 105.62%, a week - on - week increase of 2.39%. - Glass Factory Inventory: In August, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 23.6 days [75][80].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic 5mm float glass market is showing a stable yet slightly rising trend, primarily supported by rigid demand, with no significant improvement in market conditions observed [2][8]. Price Analysis - As of August 22, 2023, the float glass price index is at 1126.85, reflecting a slight increase of 0.26 or 0.02% from the previous working day [3]. - Prices for 5mm float glass in various regions are as follows: - Northeast: 1080 CNY/ton - Northwest: 1170 CNY/ton - Southwest: 1140 CNY/ton (up 10 CNY) - East China: 1190 CNY/ton - Non-central: 1090 CNY/ton - South China: 1230 CNY/ton - Non-north: 1140 CNY/ton [1]. Market Dynamics - The market in North China remains stable, with minor price adjustments in the Shahe area, while the overall trading atmosphere is still subdued [2]. - In the Southwest market, prices are rising, with some manufacturers in Sichuan increasing white glass quotes by 1-2 CNY per weight box, although downstream purchasing remains primarily based on essential needs [2]. - The East China market is stable with average transaction performance, and some companies are considering price increases [2]. Futures Market - On August 22, 2023, the main futures contract FG2601 opened at 1156 CNY/ton and closed at 1173 CNY/ton, marking a daily increase of 0.77% [6]. - The highest price during the day was 1175 CNY/ton, while the lowest was 1152 CNY/ton, with a total open interest of 1,148,710 contracts, reflecting a decrease of 60,014 contracts [6]. Future Outlook - The float glass market is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term, with production companies adopting promotional strategies to alleviate inventory pressure [8]. - The industry fundamentals have not shown significant improvement, lacking new driving factors, and the market will need to monitor demand recovery and cost changes [8].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic glass futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract down 1.95% to 1057.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] Supply - Daily melting capacity for glass is reported at 159,600 tons, remaining stable compared to the previous week [1] - Weekly profits for glass production vary: natural gas-based glass shows a loss of 150.36 yuan/ton, while coal-based and petroleum coke-based glass show profits of 111.05 yuan/ton and 130.57 yuan/ton, respectively [1] Demand - Demand is weakening as manufacturers across various regions are experiencing slower sales, leading to a cautious market sentiment [1] - Midstream traders are primarily focused on selling, with speculative demand diminishing [1] - The decline in production and sales has resulted in an increase in corporate inventory, reducing support for the glass market [1] Inventory - As of August 7, total inventory for float glass among sample enterprises reached 61.847 million heavy boxes, an increase of 2.348 million heavy boxes or 3.95% from the previous week, but down 8.18% year-on-year [1] Market Outlook - Recent recovery in glass production profits and slight supply increase are noted, but terminal demand shows no significant improvement [1] - Market sentiment is expected to stabilize, with mid and downstream inventory replenishment slowing down [1] - The market is anticipated to continue low-level fluctuations, with the September contract approaching delivery [1] - It is suggested that market participants adopt a wait-and-see approach for the time being [1]