浮法玻璃市场价格 | 市场 | 型号 | 8月21日 | 8 月 22 日 | 涨跌 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 东北 | 5mm 大板 | 1080 | 1080 | 0 | 元/吨 | | 西北 | 5mm 大板 | 1170 | 1170 | 0 | 元/吨 | | 西南 | 5mm 大板 | 1130 | 1140 | 7 10 | 元/吨 | | 华东 | 5mm 大板 | 1190 | 1190 | 0 | 元/吨 | | 非中 | 5mm 大板 | 1090 | 1090 | 0 | 元/吨 | | 华南 | 5mm 大板 | 1230 | 92300 | O | CONG/吨 | | 非北 | 5mm 大板 | 1140 | 1140 | 0 | 元/吨 | 浮法玻璃市场分析 今日国内5mm浮法玻璃市场整体呈现稳中有涨态势。其中，华北市场基本走稳，沙河地区个别小板价格微幅调整，整体交投氛围仍 显清淡；西南市场价格重心继续上移，四川地区部分厂家白玻报价上调1-2元/重量箱，下游采购仍以刚需为主，补库意愿不强；华东 市场运行平稳，成 ...

近期监管趋严，短期波动加大 目录 玻璃基本面 01 1、玻璃行情回顾 本月玻璃走势整体较强。在原料支撑及持续不断地政策刺激下，玻璃本月持续大幅反弹。月末， 由于短期过快上涨，带来交易所监管，引发大跌。 数据来源： 博易大师 正信期货研究院 900 1400 1900 2400 2900 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 2、估值--套利 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 01-05 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 沙河安全 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1月 2月 3月 4月 5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is expected to be weakly operating [2][3] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the glass futures rose significantly, forming a resonance with raw materials such as coal and soda ash. Driven by strong macro - sentiment and policy documents, the market was overbought. The supply decreased slightly with a cold - repair of one production line and a decline in daily melting volume. Both main production and sales areas saw inventory drops. The market demand improved, but the downstream terminal's willingness to stockpile remained low. The soda ash market also had more supply than actual demand, with limited upside potential. As the end - of - month meeting expectations are to be realized, the 08 - contract positions are higher than usual, and spot goods in the hands of spot - futures traders need to be sold. It is expected that the market will correct from its high level, and participation is not recommended without physical goods [2] Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - Main Logic: The glass futures rose last week, with supply decreasing slightly and inventory dropping in major areas. Market demand improved, but downstream terminal stocking willingness was low. Soda ash supply exceeded demand. End - of - month meeting expectations are to be realized, and it's expected that the market will correct from its high [2] - Operating Strategy: Weakly operating [2][3] 02 and 03 Market Review - Spot Price: As of July 25, the 5mm float glass market price was 1,250 yuan/ton in North China (+90), 1,190 yuan/ton in Central China (+90), and 1,280 yuan/ton in East China (+40). The futures price of the glass 09 contract closed at 1,362 yuan/ton last Friday, up 281 yuan from the previous week [9][10] - Soda Ash - Glass Spread: As of July 25, the soda ash futures price was 1,440 yuan/ton, and the glass futures price was 1,362 yuan/ton, with a spread of 78 yuan/ton (-57) [11] - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 09 contract was - 162 yuan/ton (-171), and the 09 - 01 spread was - 64 yuan/ton (+20) [14] 04 Profit - Natural Gas Process: The cost was 1,594 yuan/ton (+22), and the gross profit was - 314 yuan/ton (+18) [15] - Coal - Gas Process: The cost was 1,154 yuan/ton (+30), and the gross profit was 96 yuan/ton (+60) [19] - Petroleum Coke Process: The cost was 1,108 yuan/ton (+2), and the gross profit was 82 yuan/ton (+68) [19] 05 Supply - Last Friday, the glass daily melting volume was 157,755 tons/day (-1,100), with 223 production lines in operation. The first - line of Gansu Kaisheng Daming with a daily melting volume of 600T/D was cold - repaired last week [21] 06 Inventory - As of July 25, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 6,189.6 million weight boxes (-304.3). North China's inventory was 815.3 million weight boxes (-50.4); Central China's was 663 million weight boxes (-75.7); East China's was 1,370.3 million weight boxes (-36.2); South China's was 1,025.6 million weight boxes (-19.4); Southwest's was 1,171.4 million weight boxes (-47.3); and Shahe's factory inventory was 115 million weight boxes (-61) [27][34] 07 Deep - processing - On July 24, the comprehensive sales - to - production ratio of float glass was 126% (+35%). On July 15, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 47.8% (-0.5%). In mid - July, the order days of glass deep - processing were 9.3 days (-0.2) [36] 08 and 09 Demand - Automotive: In June, China's automobile production was 2.794 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 145,000 and a year - on - year increase of 287,000. Sales were 2.904 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 218,000 and a year - on - year increase of 352,000. New energy passenger vehicle retail sales in June were 1.111 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 53.3% [48] - Real Estate: In June, China's real estate completion area was 41.8147 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2%; new construction area was 71.8071 million square meters (-9%); construction area was 83.0189 million square meters (+5%); and commercial housing sales area was 105.354 million square meters (-7%). From July 14 to July 20, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.37 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 6% and a year - on - year decrease of 14%. In June, real estate development investment was 1.042416 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12% [57] 10, 11, 12, 13 Cost - side - Soda Ash - Spot Price: As of last weekend, the mainstream market prices of heavy soda ash were 1,350 yuan/ton in North China (+50), 1,350 yuan/ton in East China (+75), 1,325 yuan/ton in Central China (+75), and 1,500 yuan/ton in South China (+75) [59] - Futures Price: Last Friday, the soda ash 2509 contract closed at 1,440 yuan/ton (+224) [64] - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the soda ash Central China 09 contract was - 115 yuan/ton (-149) [63] - Profit: As of last Friday, the ammonia - alkali method cost of soda ash enterprises was 1,330 yuan/ton (+9), with a gross profit of - 35 yuan/ton (+48); the co - production method cost was 1,702 yuan/ton (+86), with a gross profit of 18 yuan/ton (+81) [65][67] - Inventory: As of July 25, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.8846 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 41,000), including 1.1224 million tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 200) and 742,200 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 40,800). The exchange's soda ash warehouse receipts last weekend were 955 (a month - on - month increase of 665). The apparent demand of light soda ash was 355,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,900. The apparent demand of heavy soda ash last week was 409,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,900. The sales - to - production ratio of soda ash last week was 105.66%, a week - on - week increase of 11.42%. In May, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 25.8 days [77][88][94]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The fundamentals of glass remain weak, and it is expected to mainly trade in a low - level range in the short term [2][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The "anti - involution" policy boosts market sentiment. Glass production profit has recovered, the cold - repair speed of the industry has slowed down, and the start - up rate and output have dropped to historical lows in the same period. Deep - processing orders are lower than in previous years, and terminal demand is weak, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of float glass in Hebei Shahe is 1092 yuan/ton, the closing price of FG2509 is 1102 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 10 yuan. The futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 67.102 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.87% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average, which is bearish [2][42]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The glass fundamentals are still weak, and it is expected to mainly trade in a low - level range in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - **Bullish Factors**: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and glass production has continuously declined to a historical low. The photovoltaic glass industry is expected to implement a production - cut plan, which boosts the disk sentiment [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: The terminal demand in the real estate sector remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [4]. 3. Main Logic - The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level in the same period. It is the seasonal off - season for demand, and downstream enterprises purchase on demand. The inventory of glass factories has continued to accumulate. It is expected that glass will mainly trade in a low - level range [5]. 4. Glass Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Shahe Safety Large - Plate Spot Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1086 | 1092 | 6 | | Current Value | 1102 | 1092 | - 10 | | Change Rate | 1.47% | 0.00% | - 266.67% | [6] 5. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large plates in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1092 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. 6. Fundamentals - Cost Side - No specific content provided other than the topic of glass production profit. 7. Fundamentals - Production - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 224, with a start - up rate of 75.68%. The number of operating glass production lines is at a historical low in the same period [21]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 158,400 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history and has stabilized and rebounded [23]. 8. Fundamentals - Demand - In April 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6808 million tons [27]. - Other aspects such as housing sales, new construction, construction, and completion areas, and downstream factory start - up and order situations are mentioned but no detailed data is provided other than the data source. 9. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 67.102 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.87% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [2][42]. 10. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Consumption (10,000 tons) | Difference (10,000 tons) | Production Growth Rate | Consumption Growth Rate | Net Import Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 5354 | 5263 | 5229 | 34 | | | - 1.734 | | 2018 | 5162 | 5088 | 5091 | 7 | - 3.50% | - 2.64% | - 1.26% | | 2019 | 5052 | 5027 | 5061 | - 34 | - 2.13% | - 0.59% | - 0.50% | | 2020 | 5000 | 5014 | 5064 | - 50 | - 1.03% | 0.06% | 0.284 | | 2021 | 5494 | 5507 | 5412 | 95 | 9.88% | 6.87% | 0.24 | | 2022 | 5463 | 5418 | 5327 | 91 | - 0.56% | - 1.54% | - 0.834 | | 2023 | 5301 | 5252 | 5372 | - 120 | - 2.97% | 0.84% | - 0.934 | | 2024E | 5510 | 5461 | 5310 | 151 | 3.94% | - 1.15% | - 0.90% | [43]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. With supply declining to a relatively low level and demand in a seasonal off - peak period, downstream purchases on an as - needed basis, leading to continuous accumulation of glass factory inventories. It is expected that the glass price will mainly fluctuate at a low level in the short term [2][5]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract is 980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.58% from the previous value; the spot price of Shahe safety large - board glass is 1052 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous value; the main basis is 72 yuan/ton, an increase of 44.00% from the previous value [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1052 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side No specific data or analysis content provided other than the mention of glass production profit. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines in the country is 222, with an operating rate of 75.15%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting capacity of float glass is 156,800 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history [21][23]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In April 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6808 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting raw glass inventories [27][4]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 69.216 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.96% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [42]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, exports, imports, apparent supply, consumption, differences, production growth rates, consumption growth rates, and net import ratios [43]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive factors**: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and glass production has continuously declined to a historical low [4]. - **Negative factors**: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting raw glass inventories [4].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the glass industry, analyzing its fundamentals, market conditions, and providing a short - term outlook [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. With supply at a relatively low level and in the seasonal demand off - season, downstream buyers purchase as needed. Glass factory inventories continue to accumulate. It is expected that the glass will mainly fluctuate at a low level in the short term [2][5] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Glass production profit is at a low level, industry cold repairs increase,开工率 and production decline to historical lows; deep - processing orders are weaker than in previous years, terminal demand is weak, and factory inventories continue to accumulate (bearish) [2] - Basis: The spot price of float glass in Hebei Shahe is 1056 yuan/ton, the FG2509 closing price is 1019 yuan/ton, with a basis of 37 yuan, and the futures are at a discount to the spot (bullish) [2] - Inventory: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 69.216 million weight - boxes, a 0.96% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average (bearish) [2] - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward (bullish) [2] - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions increase (bearish) [2] - Expectation: The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate at a low level in the short term [2] 2. Influence Factor Summary - Bullish factors: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and glass production has continuously declined to a historical low [4] - Bearish factors: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low; the capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting raw - glass inventories [4] 3. Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level compared to the same period. It is the seasonal demand off - season, downstream buyers purchase as needed, and glass factory inventories continue to accumulate. It is expected that the glass will mainly fluctuate at a low level [5] 4. Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract increased by 0.30% to 1019 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shahe Safety large - board remained unchanged at 1056 yuan/ton, and the main basis decreased by 7.50% to 37 yuan/ton [6] 5. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 1056 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11] 6. Fundamentals - Cost Side - Not elaborated in detail in the report 7. Fundamentals - Production - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 222, with an operating rate of 75.15%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume is 156,800 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history [21][23] 8. Fundamentals - Demand - In April 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6808 million tons [27] 9. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 69.216 million weight - boxes, a 0.96% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [42] 10. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the glass industry has seen fluctuations in production, consumption, and supply - demand differences. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, and the difference is 1.51 million tons [43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. With production profit at a low level, industry cold repairs increasing,开工率 and output dropping to historical lows, while terminal demand remains weak and factory inventories continue to accumulate. The short - term expectation is for the glass price to mainly fluctuate at a low level [2][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract is 980 yuan/ton, showing a 0.62% increase from the previous value. The spot price of the safety large board in Shahe remains unchanged at 1044 yuan/ton, and the main basis is 64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.57% from the previous value [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 1044 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [13]. Cost - side of Fundamentals - The profit of coal production lines for glass production has rebounded, the loss of natural gas production lines has narrowed, and the profit of petroleum coke production lines has turned negative [19]. Production - side of Fundamentals - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 224, with an operating rate of 75.57%. The number of operating production lines and the daily melting volume are at historical lows for the same period [23][25]. Demand - side of Fundamentals - In April 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 468.08 tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [29][4]. Inventory - side of Fundamentals - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 69.685 million weight boxes, a 0.10% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [44]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in production, consumption, and other indicators. For example, in 2024E, the production is 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, and the surplus is 1.51 million tons, with a production growth rate of 3.94% and a consumption growth rate of - 1.15% [45].

每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-6-18 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润低位，行业冷修增加，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；深加工订单 不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱，厂库持续累积；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1044元/吨，FG2509收盘价为974元/吨，基差为70元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6968.50万重量箱，较前一周减少0.10%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计低位震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、生产利润负反馈明显，玻璃产量持续下降至历史低位。 利空： 1、 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-6-16 每日观点 玻璃： 影响因素总结 利多： 1、生产利润负反馈明显，玻璃产量持续下降至历史低位。 利空： 1、地产终端需求依然疲弱，玻璃深加工企业订单数量历史同期低位。 2、深加工行业资金回款不乐观，贸易商、加工厂心态谨慎，消化原片库存为主。 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主要逻辑：玻璃供给下滑至同期较低水平，季节性淡季来临，下游按需采购，玻璃厂库持续累积，预期 玻璃低位震荡运行为主。 2、风险点：行业复产加速，宏观及房地产政策不及预期 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润低位，行业冷修增加，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；深加工订单 不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱，厂库持续累积；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1044元/吨，FG25 ...

| 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/6/13 | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/6/12 周度变化 日度变化 | 2025/6/5 | 2025/6/11 | | | | | 2025/6/5 | 2025/6/11 | | 2025/6/12 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1121.0 | 1113.0 | 1113.0 | -8.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 963.0 | 998.0 | 981.0 | 18.0 | -17.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1096.0 | 1100.0 | 1096.0 | 0.0 | -4.0 | FG01合约 | 1018.0 | 1056.0 | 1040.0 | 22.0 | -16.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | 1 ...