重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点 和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会 因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户:市场 有风险,投资需谨慎。 美国9月19日当周商业原油库存减少60.7万桶,净进口较前期数据大幅回升,原油降库幅度缩 小。美国单周原油产量增加1.9万桶/日至1350.1万桶/日,炼厂开工率由93.3%继续回落至93%,处 同期相对高位。石油产品方面,汽柴油库存均小幅下滑,原油与石油产品总库存压力有所减弱,但 仍处近5年同期最高位。由于全口径库存回落及油品表需走强,单周数据偏向利多。 风险因素:关税政策调整,地缘局势,OPEC+产量政策。 | 单位:万桶 | | 公布值 | 前值 | 单位:万桶/日 | 公布值 | 前值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国商业原油库存变动 | | ▼ -60.7 | ▼ -928.5 | 美国原油产量 | 1350. 1 | 1348.2 | | 美国库欣原油库存变动 | | ▲ 17.7 | ▼ -29.6 | 美国成品油表观需求 | 2079. 3 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: August 11, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the absolute price of crude oil dropped to $65 per barrel for Brent. The monthly spreads of crude oil in the three major markets declined slightly. Geopolitical uncertainties resurfaced over the weekend due to potential misunderstandings about the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire and Iran's plan to block the "US corridor" in the Caucasus. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased this week, with a slight decline in US commercial crude oil inventories, and changes in gasoline and diesel inventories in different regions. After the decline in crude oil prices, global refinery profits rebounded. The near - term crude oil fundamentals are volatile. Supply faces a risk of decline due to sanctions on Iran and Russia, OPEC+ crude oil exports are expected to accelerate, and refinery operations in the third quarter are expected to be stronger than anticipated, which supports the monthly spread. However, the peak of the global supply - demand fundamentals has passed. It is expected that the absolute price of crude oil will maintain a volatile pattern, and it is predicted to fall to $55 - $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy and the non - OPEC production schedule [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - From August 4 - 8, 2025, WTI prices decreased from $66.29 to $63.88, Brent from $68.76 to $66.59, and Dubai from $70.64 to $69.22. SC decreased from 514.30 to 489.80. Other related products also showed various price changes [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Ukraine's armed forces attacked Russia's Saratov refinery. Iran vowed to block the "US corridor" in the Caucasus. There might be a misunderstanding about Russia's cease - fire requirements by Trump's envoy. Canada plans to lower the price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil. OPEC's oil production in July increased by 270,000 barrels per day compared to June. Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs on China for buying Russian oil, and China responded that its energy cooperation with Russia is legitimate. India continues to import Russian oil but the quantity may decline. Russian crude export price discounts have widened [3][4][5]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report for the week of August 1, US crude exports increased by 620,000 barrels per day to 3.318 million barrels per day, domestic production decreased by 30,000 barrels to 13.284 million barrels per day, commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.029 million barrels to 424 million barrels (a 0.71% decline), the four - week average supply of US crude products increased by 1.61% year - on - year, strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 235,000 barrels to 403 million barrels (a 0.06% increase), and commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 174,000 barrels per day to 5.962 million barrels per day. From July 25 - 31, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased slightly, while that of Shandong local refineries remained basically unchanged. Chinese refinery output showed a decline in gasoline and an increase in diesel, with corresponding changes in inventories. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, while that of local refineries declined [6]. 3.4 Weekly View - The absolute price of crude oil dropped this week, and geopolitical uncertainties resurfaced. Global oil inventories increased, and refinery profits rebounded after the price decline. Near - term fundamentals are volatile. Supply may decline due to sanctions, OPEC+ exports are expected to accelerate, and third - quarter refinery operations are expected to be stronger. The peak of supply - demand fundamentals has passed, and the price is expected to be volatile and fall to $55 - $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to US tariff policies and non - OPEC production schedules [6].

Core Insights - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that Texas oil production slightly increased to 5.752 million barrels per day in May, marking the highest level since November 2024 [1] Industry Summary - Texas oil production reached 5.752 million barrels per day in May, indicating a recovery in output levels [1]

Core Insights - North Dakota's oil production reached 1.112790 million barrels per day in May [1] Group 1 - The oil production figure indicates a significant output level for the state, reflecting its importance in the U.S. energy sector [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Russia's oil production has decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, totaling 211 million tons in the first five months of 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Eni, an Italian oil company, stated that the conflict between Israel and Iran has not led to a decrease in oil production, and OPEC still has idle capacity available [1] Group 1 - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, specifically between Israel and Iran, has not impacted oil production levels [1] - OPEC is reported to have spare capacity that can be utilized if needed [1]

Group 1 - OPEC's oil production in May increased by 150,000 barrels per day compared to April, reaching 26.75 million barrels per day [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights that U.S. oil production reached a record high in March, despite a subsequent decline in oil prices [1] Production Data - U.S. liquid fuel production rose to 20.8 million barrels per day in March, marking a 3.1% increase from the previous month [1] - This figure includes both crude oil and liquefied natural gas, but is approximately 180,000 barrels lower than the four-week average for March [1] Future Projections - The Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will reach 20.4 million barrels per day by the end of this year [1] - The record production levels may decline in the coming months due to falling oil prices prompting exploration companies to reduce drilling activity in major shale formations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Kazakhstan's Energy Minister announced that the country aims to produce at least 96 million tons of oil this year [1] Group 1 - The target oil production for Kazakhstan in 2023 is set at a minimum of 96 million tons [1]

Core Insights - Kazakhstan's oil production in April decreased by 3% compared to March, reaching 1.82 million barrels per day, which remains above the OPEC+ quota [1] Group 1 - Kazakhstan's oil production for April was reported at 1.82 million barrels per day [1] - The production level is still higher than the OPEC+ allocation [1] - The decrease in production reflects a 3% decline from March figures [1]