Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that China will accelerate its crude oil reserves this year and by 2026, driven by falling prices and concerns over energy security [1] Group 1: Oil Inventory Projections - Goldman Sachs' oil research head Daan Struyven forecasts that China's oil inventory will increase by 500,000 barrels per day over the next five quarters, significantly exceeding recent estimates of China's storage efforts [1] - Frederic Lasserre, head of research at Genscape, estimates that China's inventory has increased by approximately 200,000 barrels per day in recent months [1] Group 2: Market Impact and Price Predictions - Participants at the Asia-Pacific Oil Conference noted that China's buying activity has supported demand and boosted oil prices, although the outlook for oversupply casts a shadow over the global market [1] - Goldman Sachs still expects Brent prices to fall to the mid-range of $50-60 per barrel next year [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for the scale of oversupply expected in 2026 to a record high, as OPEC+ and other oil-producing countries increase production [1]

一则消息搅动国际原油市场。 5月15日，国际油价持续下挫，WTI原油期货、布伦特原油期货价格均一度大跌超4%。有分析称，地缘局势是油价下 行的主要因素。据最新消息，伊朗最高领袖高级顾问Ali Shamkhani表示，伊朗准备在特定条件下与美国签署核协 议，以换取解除经济制裁。 花旗在最新发布的报告中表示，华盛顿和伊朗之间"有较大可能达成协议"，或将使伊朗原油的产量提高到400万桶/日 以上，并释放石油储备。 当地时间5月15日，美国总统特朗普在卡塔尔首都多哈表示，伊朗已经同意了部分条件，他将敦促伊朗在不获得核武 器的情况下达成协议。美国正在与伊朗进行认真的谈判，以实现长期和平。特朗普说："我相信我们已接近达成协 议。" 花旗警告说，如果外交努力失败，伊核问题或将导致紧张局势升级，布伦特原油价格可能升至 70 美元以上。 花旗指出，此前达成关税协议后，风险意愿普遍上升。不过，该行警告说，由于美国财政紧张且美国的硬数据（可 量化经济指标）趋于疲软，市场的安心"可能只是短暂的"。 炼厂是近期支撑油价的另一大因素。花旗表示，"残余燃料油裂解率保持高位，支撑了全球轻度加氢裂解炼油的利润 率。"花旗补充说，利润走高可能刺 ...