【财经要闻概览】中国7月社零同比增速放缓至3.7%，汽车类零售总额同比转降。美国7月零售销售环 比增0.5%，实际零售销售连续十个月增长，但8月密歇根大学消费者信心意外回落，长短期通胀预期攀 升。铜方面，美联储会议纪要凸显官员对通胀担忧，内容偏鹰派，关注周五杰克逊霍尔"全球央行年 会"鲍威尔表态。近期LME铜现货贴水走扩，进口铜增加，下游需求处淡季，铜材开工率下滑。宏观情 绪反复，产业供需双弱，铜价下行空间有限。铝方面，同样受美联储鹰派纪要影响，关注鲍威尔年会表 态。近期铝价高位运行，国内消费复苏乏力，供应充足，电解铝现货有累库预期，铝价或偏弱运行。锌 方面，宏观多空交织，9月美联储降息对有色板块有支撑。7月锌锭产量超60万吨，8月产量持续恢复， 预计环比增1万吨。需求有韧性，周一社库累增施压锌价，但Ime锌库存去化，挤仓隐患仍存，追空需 谨慎。镍方面，国内反内卷消息降温，美联储纪要偏鹰。印尼镍矿升水暂稳，纯镍供应增加，国内库存 累增，镍价随宏观震荡。全球镍库存高位，需求偏弱，一级镍过剩。操作建议短线，关注逢高卖套机 会，控制风险。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The fundamentals of the mining end show an increase in overseas mine supply, and the TC spot index has significantly rebounded due to traders' shipments. On the supply side, due to the increase in copper ore supply and the relatively firm operation of the spot, smelters are more enthusiastic about production, and domestic supply has increased. On the demand side, the impact of the consumption off - season has weakened, and there is a slight improvement in consumption during the transition from the off - season to the peak season. Downstream inquiries have become more active, with some advance stocking demand emerging, and demand expectations are warming. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with inventories remaining at a medium - low level, and industry expectations are improving. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.13, a decrease of 0.1029 compared to the previous period. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,692.50 dollars/ton, a decrease of 28 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 20 yuan/ton, with no change. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 128,034 lots, a decrease of 7,831 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 506 lots, a decrease of 5,699 lots. The LME copper inventory is 156,350 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 10,750 tons, a decrease of 500 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 86,361 tons, an increase of 4,428 tons; the warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 25,157 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 78,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 78,775 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 57 dollars/ton, with no change; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 52.50 dollars/ton, with no change. The basis of the CU main contract is 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 90.75 dollars/ton, an increase of 6.10 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 2.5601 million tons, an increase of 210,500 tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 37.68 dollars/thousand tons, an increase of 0.38 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 69,080 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan is 69,780 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 20 yuan. The processing fee for crude copper in the south is 900 yuan/ton, with no change; the processing fee for crude copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, with no change. The monthly output of refined copper is 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons. The monthly import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly social inventory of copper is 418,200 tons, an increase of 43,000 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products is 2.1694 million tons, a decrease of 45,100 tons. The cumulative value of completed investment in power grid infrastructure construction is 291.066 billion yuan, an increase of 87.08 billion yuan. The cumulative value of completed investment in real estate development is 5,357.977 billion yuan, an increase of 692.221 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,689,220,700 pieces, an increase of 183,435,300 pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 6.89%, a decrease of 0.19%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.52%, with no change. The implied volatility of at - the - money options is 9.2%, an increase of 0.0051. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.13, a decrease of 0.1029 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that many participants believed that the current interest rate was not far from the neutral level, and most officials thought it appropriate to keep the interest rate unchanged. China's new LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months. The Fed's July meeting minutes also showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates in July, and there were differences among officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation. President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of maintaining political stability, social stability, ethnic unity, and religious harmony in Tibet and promoting major projects such as the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project and the Sichuan - Tibet Railway [2].

(本文来自第一财经) "美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos：美联储的会议纪要通常不会透露太多新的内容，但它们强化了已公开的 信息：一是根据鲍威尔的新闻发布会，7月会议上委员会整体情绪偏鹰派（至少与市场先比而言）；二 是数据与预测的依赖性显现，即在8月1日就业报告公布后，更多官员对9月降息表现出开放态度。 来源：第一财经 ...

美联储会议纪要显示上月官员们普遍支持按兵不动。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Report Summary 1. Overall Market Outlook - The expectation of "anti-involution" is difficult to disprove, and commodities are generally strong [1]. 2. Variety Analysis 2.1 Stock Index Futures - The stock index rose and then fell on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3500 points. The trading volume of the two markets continued to rise to 1.53 trillion yuan. The media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and comprehensive finance sectors led the gains, while non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals led the losses [1]. - As the stock index valuation rises to a high level, market caution has increased. Without new positive news, the market will return to high-level volatility in the short term. Considering the significant impact of the mid-year report performance in July, the IF and IH contracts with clear constituent stock earnings may be more resilient. Overall, although there are still uncertainties in the external environment, the A-share market shows resilience, and the trading volume has increased, with the oscillation center expected to continue to move up [1]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market remained loose, and the bond market remained at a high level. The bond futures rose slightly yesterday and remained within the range. Domestically, the latest inflation data was still weak. Trump announced a second wave of tariff letters involving eight countries. The Fed meeting minutes showed that most officials believed that tariffs might continue to push up inflation [1]. - The central bank continued its net capital withdrawal operation, but the capital market remained loose. The equity market did not continue its strength yesterday, reducing the drag on the bond market. Overall, with high macro uncertainty, the bond market has limited directional drivers. However, with an optimistic capital market outlook, the bond market will remain at a high level. But there are still risks of high valuation pressure and high congestion. Continue to monitor the performance of the equity market, and the stock-bond seesaw may continue [1]. 2.3 Gold and Silver Futures - The US government continued to release new tariff policy information, which had limited impact on the market. The logic of factors such as services and inflation that are favorable to gold prices has not been disproven, and the central bank's continuous gold purchase behavior has not ended. In the short term, gold prices will continue to oscillate at a high level, but the long-term upward trend has not been broken [1][4]. - The gold-silver ratio on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is at the 68.5% quantile in the past three years. The silver price fluctuates with gold, and after the silver price breaks through, the support around 8500 is strong. Strategically, it is recommended to hold the short position of out-of-the-money put options on the August contracts of gold and silver until expiration, or transfer the position to the October contracts [4]. 2.4 Non-Ferrous Metals Futures - **Copper**: The LME copper performed the weakest, and the inventory continued to rise. The Shanghai copper followed the LME copper and fell sharply at the opening yesterday, then oscillated at a low level. The domestic inflation data was still weak, and Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's view on inflation affected the market. The supply at the mine end remained tight, and the demand outlook was still cautious. Affected by Trump's statement of a 50% tariff increase on copper, the COMEX and LME copper prices diverged, with the premium exceeding 25%. However, due to the large inflow of copper in the US, the market's expectation of copper surplus in the US after the tariff implementation increased. The inventory of the three major exchanges has been rising, and the domestic market generally followed the LME, but the decline was slightly smaller. The financial attribute still supports copper prices in the medium to long term, but the tariff policy is uncertain, and the structural mismatch persists, so copper price fluctuations may increase [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina prices continued to be strong, breaking through 3200. The Shanghai aluminum oscillated higher at night. The domestic inflation data was weak, and Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's view on inflation affected the market. The recent strength of alumina prices was mainly due to the "anti-involution" expectation, but the excess capacity situation remained unchanged. The supply of Shanghai aluminum was constrained, and the import profit was inverted. The demand was cautious due to the off-season, and the inventory showed signs of accumulation. Overall, alumina is temporarily strong due to sentiment, but the upside is uncertain. The medium-term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged, but the short-term demand and inventory are dragging, and it will continue to oscillate at a high level [4]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has seasonally recovered, and the port inventory has increased significantly, causing the nickel ore price to decline marginally. In June, the nickel iron production in Indonesia and China decreased by 3.85% month-on-month but increased by 22.21% year-on-year. The supply was relatively abundant, but downstream demand was limited. The price of intermediate products was relatively firm. The nickel fundamentals have not improved, and the off-season demand is not favorable. The supply pressure has increased with the increase in the Philippines' ore supply. Recently, the nickel price has oscillated lower, but the extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has boosted the demand for MHP, and the price of intermediate products has rebounded. As the nickel price dropped to 119,000 yuan, the downward momentum weakened, and it will continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term. The short position of out-of-the-money call options strategy can be continued [4][6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The prices of spodumene and lepidolite have continued to rise, driving up the lithium price due to increased mining costs. However, the improvement in the lithium carbonate fundamentals is limited. The production capacity of salt lakes has continued to increase seasonally, and the weekly production of lithium carbonate has remained at a relatively high level this year. The downstream demand has not increased, and the production schedules of battery cell and cathode enterprises have been mediocre. The traditional off-season will also limit the growth rate of terminal demand. The lithium carbonate inventory is still in the accumulation cycle, and the upside of the price is limited. It is advisable to short at high levels during this stage of the rebound [6]. - **Silicon Energy**: The supply-side reform and industry restructuring expectations of the polysilicon industry have increased significantly due to the policy signal of capacity regulation. The recent strong performance of the polysilicon spot price has further promoted the rise of the polysilicon futures price. In the short term, the sentiment is strong, but the fundamentals have not fully reflected. Overall, the policy support for the price is strong, and it is advisable to hold the short position of put options [6]. 2.5 Steel and Iron Ore Futures - **Rebar**: The spot price of rebar fluctuated slightly yesterday. The trading volume of construction steel decreased to 88,500 tons. The demand in the off-season has no bright spots, and the market drivers are concentrated on steel supply and raw materials. The "anti-involution" expectation is difficult to disprove, and there are rumors of crude steel production restrictions again. The market expectation is optimistic, but the time for the implementation of supply contraction is uncertain. On the one hand, the profit of electric arc furnaces has recovered, and there is a risk of increased production in the off-season. On the other hand, the profit of long-process steel mills is good, and the production cost has stabilized and rebounded. The spot price of coking coal has increased rapidly, and there are also plans to increase the price of coke. It is expected that the rebar futures price will oscillate strongly, with the bottom rising and the upside limited by the electric arc furnace cost. The option-selling strategy is temporarily better than the single-sided futures strategy. It is recommended to continue to hold the short position of out-of-the-money put options (RB2510P2900) [6]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The spot price of hot rolled coil fluctuated yesterday. The demand in the off-season is average, both in reality and expectation. Overseas orders for automobiles and home appliances have weakened, and the domestic "trade-in" policy has limited room. The price difference between domestic and foreign steel has narrowed significantly, and the pressure on direct exports may increase. The market upward drivers are concentrated on steel supply and raw materials. The "anti-involution" expectation is difficult to disprove, and the expectation of crude steel production reduction has increased. The long-process steel mills are actively producing, and the production cost has stabilized and rebounded. The spot price of coking coal has increased rapidly, and there are also plans to increase the price of coke. It is expected that the hot rolled coil futures price will oscillate strongly this week, with the bottom cost rising and the upside limited by the export cost. It is advisable to temporarily wait and see on the single side, and consider continuing to hold the arbitrage strategy of compressing profits on the January contracts [6][8]. - **Iron Ore**: The "anti-involution" expectation is difficult to disprove, and there are rumors of crude steel production restrictions again, but the time for the implementation of steel mill production cuts is uncertain. In the short term, the profit of steel mills still encourages long-process steel mills to maintain an active production rhythm. The daily output of domestic blast furnace hot metal has declined slowly at a high level. Under the background of high hot metal output and low steel mill raw material inventory, the supply-demand contradiction of imported iron ore in July is limited. The iron ore price is running strongly, compressing the profit of steel mills. The upside of the iron ore price in the off-season is mainly limited by the resumption of electric arc furnace production and the narrowing of the steel price difference between domestic and foreign markets, which restricts the upside of steel prices. It is advisable to hold the short position of out-of-the-money put options (I2509-P-700) and continue to hold the iron ore 9-1 positive spread strategy (spread 27.5, +0.5) [8]. 2.6 Coal and Coke Futures - **Coking Coal**: The auction price at the mine mouth has continued to rise, and the replenishment enthusiasm of steel and coke enterprises and the willingness of the trading sector to enter the market have continued to increase. It is expected that the raw coal inventory of coal mines will further decrease, and the temporary supply-demand mismatch is still favorable for coal prices. The long position strategy can be continued. Recently, attention should be paid to the production increase progress of mines after the safety production month [8]. - **Coke**: The production enthusiasm of steel mills is good, and the daily output of hot metal has remained at a relatively high level in the off-season. The demand for coke in the furnace is supported, and steel mills are still purchasing raw materials. The port trading activity has also increased, and the spot price has increased. The futures price has also shown a strong trend [8]. 2.7 Soda Ash and Glass Futures - **Soda Ash**: The fundamental negative factors are clear, that is, supply exceeds demand. Yesterday, the daily production of soda ash increased to 102,900 tons (+500 tons). Kunshan produced products last night, and Lianyungang Alkali Industry plans to increase production on the 11th. The demand lacks bright spots, and the daily consumption of rigid demand is about 98,000 tons (including exports). Alkali plants may continue to accumulate inventory passively. However, at the micro level, after the single-sided position of the September contracts of soda ash reached a record high, it has rebounded after three consecutive days of position reduction. The single-sided position is still as high as more than 1.59 million lots (equivalent to 31.8 million tons), and the virtual position ratio is too high. Be vigilant against the risk of short squeeze in the market due to the "anti-involution" expectation or sentiment. It is advisable to hold the short position of the September contracts of soda ash with a stop-profit line. From the perspective of the production capacity cycle, glass is stronger than soda ash, and the strategy of going long on the January contracts of glass and shorting the January contracts of soda ash can be patiently held (spread -112, -13) [8]. - **Float Glass**: The fundamentals have not changed much. The operating production capacity of float glass has remained stable. Yesterday, the average sales rate of glass in the four major production areas decreased to 97% (-5%). The futures price is at a premium to the Hubei spot price. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of spot purchases based on futures. It is expected that the glass factory will reduce inventory by 1.7 million heavy boxes this week. The main driver of the off-season market comes from the supply side. The "anti-involution" expectation is difficult to disprove, and the production capacity of glass factories using petroleum coke and natural gas processes has been in a loss state, and the probability of cold repair is increasing. It is believed that the probability of the realization of the supply contraction expectation in the far-month contracts may gradually increase. Strategically, it is recommended to go long on the January contracts at low prices on the single side and continue to hold the arbitrage strategy of going long on the January contracts of glass and shorting the January contracts of soda ash (spread -112, -13) [8]. 2.8 Energy Futures - **Crude Oil**: The market is currently in a stage where OPEC+ is accelerating production increases and the US is in a peak demand season. The market assesses that the excess pressure is relatively limited, but the US API inventory shows a significant accumulation of 7.128 million barrels of crude oil, far exceeding expectations, and the monthly spread has started to cool recently. The expectation of tight supply in the US market will be alleviated. It is expected that the short-term rebound space of oil prices is limited, and attention should be paid to shorting opportunities on rebounds [10]. - **Methanol**: This week, the arrival volume was 310,300 (+55,700) tons, with an increase of 126,200 tons in Jiangsu and a decrease of 15,000 tons each in Guangdong and Fujian. Affected by the increase in the arrival volume, the inventory in East China ports increased by 61,000 tons, and that in South China decreased by 15,800 tons. Currently, the port inventory has reached the highest level since April but is still at a historical low for the same period. The factory inventory only increased by 4,600 tons. Although the spot trading volume has declined, the production enterprise's operating rate has also decreased. The "anti-involution" has no direct impact on the methanol industry chain for the time being, but the rebound in coal prices and the disappearance of pessimistic sentiment can provide some support for methanol futures [10]. 2.9 Chemical Futures - **Polyolefins**: Although OPEC+ has increased production, tariffs and geopolitical factors have supported the rebound of crude oil prices. This week, the spot trading has been sluggish, and the production enterprise's inventory has increased, with PE increasing by 12.5% and PP increasing by 2%. The social inventory has also increased, with PE increasing by 2.1% and PP increasing by 3.2%. In previous years, the inventory decreased during the same period, but this year it has continued to increase since June, indicating an oversupply situation. Recently, there have been concentrated production cuts in coal mines and new energy metals, triggering expectations of a new round of supply-side reforms, but it is difficult to have a substantial positive impact on polyolefins in the short term, and the price will continue to decline from July to August [10]. 2.10 Agricultural Futures - **Cotton**: In terms of supply, multiple regiments in Xinjiang have been affected by hail, and the damage to cotton fields varies. The weather theme has boosted the cotton price to run strongly. In terms of demand, terminal orders are mainly small and scattered, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. Some enterprises have started to take high-temperature holidays or reduce production capacity due to sales pressure and high temperatures. In terms of inventory, the decline rate of the national commercial cotton inventory at the end of June has slowed down compared with last month, but the year-on-year decline in Xinjiang's cotton inventory has increased. Overall, the expectation of tight supply at the end of this year still strongly supports the futures price. It is recommended to continue to hold the previous long positions [10]. - **Rubber**: The market sentiment is optimistic, and the rubber price has oscillated and rebounded. However, the automobile market has entered the traditional off-season, and tire enterprises still face inventory reduction pressure, so the demand expectation is not positive. The production in domestic and Southeast Asian rubber-producing countries has increased smoothly during the peak season, the weather conditions in the producing areas are normal, and the negative impact of climate change on rubber tapping operations has gradually weakened. The price of raw materials in the Hat Yai market has continued to decline. The rubber fundamentals continue to show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, which may limit the upside of the rubber price [10].

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index remained stable, increasing by 0.4% following the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes were released, impacting market sentiment positively [1] - The S&P 500 index showed resilience in response to the news, indicating investor confidence [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold has once again fallen below the $3,300 threshold, with market attention shifting towards the details of trade policies and the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes [1] Group 1 - The current price of gold is under pressure, indicating potential volatility in the market [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming trade policy details, which could impact gold prices [1] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes are anticipated to provide insights that may influence investor sentiment towards gold [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced a rebound last week, indicating potential for further upward movement despite some volatility [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold opened the week at $3272.74 per ounce, reached a low of $3247.77, and then rebounded to a high of $3365.51 before closing at $3334.83, resulting in a weekly increase of $62.09 or 1.9% [1][3]. Economic Influences - The decline in the US dollar index and signs of economic contraction in the US have provided support for gold prices, with expectations of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year [3][5]. - Market reactions to employment data and the potential for further economic stimulus have also contributed to the bullish sentiment for gold [3][5]. Upcoming Events - The focus for the upcoming week includes the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and the July 9 deadline for tariff exemptions, which could influence market sentiment and gold prices [5][9]. - A dovish tone from the Fed could lead to a weaker dollar and support for gold, while a focus on maintaining high interest rates could have the opposite effect [5][9]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates a potential topping pattern for gold prices, with risks of a decline to $3000 or $2600 if key support levels are breached [7][9]. - Current support levels to watch include the 60-day moving average and the 20-week moving average, with potential upward movement if prices stabilize above these levels [9]. Price Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3323 or $3304, while resistance levels are at $3340 or $3350 [9]. - For silver, support is noted at $36.85 or $36.70, with resistance at $37.20 or $37.60 [9].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes are anticipated, with expectations of maintaining the current interest rates [1] - There is a suggestion that gold prices may decline in response to the expected decision from the Federal Reserve [1]

Core Viewpoint - The strengthening of the Canadian dollar is logical following the U.S. federal court's blocking of the Trump administration's comprehensive tariff policy, but further appreciation may be limited [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - The close trade relationship between Canada and the U.S. supports the Canadian dollar due to reduced prospects for cross-border trade disruptions and improved growth expectations in the U.S. [1] - The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes may lead to a further reduction in market expectations for interest rate cuts, which could suppress the appreciation of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar [1]