机构观点 机构评级方面，2026年2月覆盖道富银行的19家机构中，买入或增持观点占比58%，目标价均价为 145.80美元(当前股价132.89美元)。盈利预测显示，2026年第一季度每股收益预计同比增长25.14%，反 映市场对业务韧性的乐观预期。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 经济观察网2026年2月10日，道富银行策略师Lee Ferridge在迈阿密TradeTech FX会议间隙表示，美联储 下任主席可能面临特朗普政府的降息压力，导致2026年降息幅度超出市场预期(预计至少两次降息，可 能进行第三次)，美元可能全年下跌10%。这一观点影响全球货币政策预期，可能通过利率环境变化间 接影响资产管理行业。 股票近期走势 近7天(2026年2月5日至11日)，道富银行股价区间涨跌幅为0.65%，振幅达5.79%。2月10日受市场情绪影 响股价下跌1.53%，但2月11日反弹0.50%至132.89美元，成交额约320万美元。年初至今累计涨幅 3.68%，跑赢部分大盘指数。 ...

State Street：如果美联储降息三次（比市场预期多出一次），美元可能会在2026年下跌10%。 ...

来源：滚动播报 荷兰国际集团(ING)分析师在一份报告中称，美元料将温和走软，因美联储(Federal Reserve)可能进一步 降息。这些分析师表示，美国经济增长依然相当强劲，但不断走软的劳动力市场应会促使美联储再降息 两次。这些分析师表示，这应与美元下跌而非崩盘的走势相符。"除非美国债券和股票市场的回报前景 大幅恶化（这不是我们的基本情境），否则我们继续倾向于认为欧元将有序升至1.22美元区域。"欧元 下跌0.2%，至1.1895美元。 ...

美元下跌，此前美国总统特朗普加大了对伊朗的施压力度，同时投资者也在权衡周三的美联储政策决 议。特朗普警告伊朗，就其核计划谈判达成协议的时间已所剩无几。在谈到美联储维持利率不变之际美 元近期的疲软表现时，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)表示，汇率问题"完全在美国财政部的 管辖范围之内"。分析师表示，对美联储独立性以及特朗普执政下政策不可预测性的担忧依然存在。 DXY美元指数下跌0.4%，至96.191。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential for a dollar sell-off may intensify, particularly if the dollar index breaks below last year's low of around 96.2, which could lead to an additional 3% decline in the dollar [1] Group 1: Dollar Performance - The performance of the dollar before the Federal Reserve meeting is crucial, as a pause in interest rate cuts could provide some support for the dollar [1] - A weak rebound in the dollar, with a daily close lower, would signal a strong bearish outlook [1] Group 2: Earnings Impact - Earnings reports from companies like Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla are under scrutiny, as any results that fall short of expectations could negatively impact the dollar [1] - The U.S. consumer market is significantly influenced by stock market performance, linking corporate earnings to broader economic indicators [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in the price of casting aluminum alloys, with the main contract closing at 23,785 yuan, up 770 yuan or 3.35% [1] - The trading volume for the main casting aluminum contract reached 23,390 lots, an increase of 13,048 lots, while the open interest decreased by 644 lots to 8,815 lots [1] - The spot prices for various aluminum alloy ingots showed notable increases, with A356.2 averaging 26,300 yuan per ton (up 300 yuan), A380 at 25,400 yuan per ton (up 200 yuan), and ADC12 at 23,900 yuan per ton (up 200 yuan) [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is influenced by U.S. President Trump's comments on the dollar's decline, which he views as normal, leading to a drop in the dollar to a four-year low of 95.566, positively impacting the non-ferrous metals sector [1] - The aluminum alloy market is experiencing a rebound in trading activity, with high prices leading to reluctance among suppliers to sell, while downstream buyers are hesitant to purchase at elevated prices, resulting in a market characterized by limited transactions despite high prices [2] - Supply-side constraints are noted due to regional tax policy adjustments, weather, and environmental factors affecting production, contributing to a continued state of market stagnation and high volatility in casting aluminum prices [2]

马来亚 银行分析师称，受美元下跌推动以及地缘政治担忧的支撑，金价飙升突破了每盎司5,000美元的 心理大关。他们写道："三角旗形突破后的看涨走势似乎已基本完成。"这是一种技术分析形态，通常出 现在市场急剧波动之后，预示着该趋势将持续。他们称，除非地缘政治冲突出现新篇章，否则在这轮三 角旗形看涨突破行情结束后，金价可能会有所盘整，因为 黄金往往会在关键价位附近表现出粘性。上 一次出现这种情况是在每盎司2,000美元的区域附近，黄金在2020年至2023年的大部分时间里都在该区 域盘整。马来亚银行继续关注委内瑞拉、伊朗和格陵兰岛等地缘政治热点地区。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses three key factors contributing to the decline of the US dollar, as articulated by Peter Brown, the manager of Baggot Investment in Ireland [1]. Group 1: Factors Leading to Dollar Decline - The first factor is the uncertainty stemming from President Donald Trump's interventions in the Federal Reserve [1]. - The second factor involves the US facing substantial debt repayment, necessitating the Federal Reserve to purchase its own debt, which negatively impacts the dollar. Additionally, the confiscation of Russian-held US bonds has raised concerns about the safe-haven status of US Treasuries [1]. - The third factor is the risk of over-concentration of investments in the US, with US stocks comprising 75% of the MSCI World Index and the US accounting for 26% of global growth. The overvaluation of tech stocks has led to a withdrawal of investments from the market, contributing to the dollar's decline [1].

Group 1 - The US dollar is facing its largest annual decline in eight years, with a year-to-date drop of approximately 8% in the spot dollar index, primarily due to expectations of significant interest rate cuts by the next Federal Reserve chairman [1][3] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve will likely implement at least two rate cuts next year, contrasting with the policy paths of other developed economies, which diminishes the dollar's attractiveness [3] - The upcoming appointment of the new Federal Reserve chairman, following Powell's term ending in May, is a focal point for market sentiment, with potential candidates including Kevin Hassett and Kevin Walsh, among others [6] Group 2 - The recent announcement of tariff policies by Trump has contributed to a bearish sentiment towards the US economy, which has dominated market views since April [3] - The potential appointment of Hassett is already reflected in stock prices, while Walsh or Waller may not support rapid rate cuts, which could be beneficial for the dollar [6]

Core Viewpoint - The dollar has declined as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes [1] Group 1 - Analyst Joseph Dahrieh from Tickmill Group indicates that the decline in the dollar is linked to investor behavior [1]