分析人士指出，米莱在国会中长期缺乏稳固支持，也没能搭建稳定的政治联盟。今年8月以来，国会已 多次推翻米莱对法案的总统否决，显示国会与总统间的分歧正在持续加深，米莱以减少财政赤字和控制 通胀为核心的经济改革方案或将面临更多掣肘。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 阿根廷国会参议院当地时间18日推翻了总统米莱对国家财政资金分配机制法案的否决，该法案接下来将 交由众议院审议投票。 国家财政资金分配机制占阿根廷联邦税收分配总额的1%，旨在应对各省紧急情况和财政失衡。此前， 这部分资金一直由阿根廷联邦政府管理。7月10日和8月20日，阿根廷参议院和众议院先后通过新的国家 财政资金分配机制法案，以自动分配拨款的方式支持地方财政和公共服务。9月12日，米莱以自动分配 拨款将削弱联邦政府对财政资源的控制，不利于实现财政平衡目标为由否决了该法案。 根据阿根廷法律规定，总统有权否决国会通过的法案，但若国会参众两院均有三分之二议员投票反对总 统的否决，新法案将生效成为法律。 ...

新华社布宜诺斯艾利斯9月17日电（记者张铎 王钟毅）阿根廷国会众议院17日推翻了总统米莱此前 对有关儿科和高校法案的否决。这两部法案接下来将交由参议院审议投票。 根据阿根廷法律，总统可否决国会通过的法案，而国会参众两院如果均有三分之二议员投票反对总 统的否决，法案就能上升为法律。 另据阿根廷《号角报》报道，米莱领导的执政联盟"自由前进党"部分议员和中间派议员在众议院投 票中投出了反对票。分析人士认为，这一定程度暴露出政治联盟欠缺稳定性。 米莱2023年12月就职以来，推出一系列经济改革措施，以减少财政赤字和控制通胀。"自由前进 党"本月7日在布宜诺斯艾利斯省议会选举中失利，显示民众对政府经济改革措施存在质疑。15日，米莱 就2026年财政预算发表电视讲话，强调财政平衡是"不容商榷"的目标。 两部法案分别要求向公立儿科医院提供特殊预算、保障医护人员薪资以及向公立大学提供更多资 源、提高教职工工资等。米莱日前以不利于实现财政平衡目标为由予以否决。 ...

（文章来源：新华社） 人民财讯9月16日电，阿根廷总统米莱15日就2026年财政预算发表电视讲话，重申不会修改经济政策， 仍致力于实现财政平衡。米莱表示，财政平衡是"不容商榷"的目标，如果能实现这一目标，阿根廷经济 将迎来"难以想象"的增长，否则将再次陷入失控的通货膨胀。当天提交给国会的预算草案显示，2026年 阿根廷国内生产总值预计将增长5%，通胀率预计为10.1%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Argentine President Milei emphasized the commitment to fiscal balance in his address regarding the 2026 budget, stating that achieving this goal is crucial for economic growth after decades of stagnation, while failure to do so could lead to uncontrollable inflation [1] Group 1: Economic Policy - President Milei reiterated that fiscal balance is a non-negotiable goal, which he believes will lead to unimaginable growth for the Argentine economy [1] - The 2026 budget allocates 4.8 trillion pesos to public universities, with pension and public healthcare expenditures increasing by 5% and 17% respectively, both exceeding the inflation rate [1] Group 2: Political Context - The ruling coalition "La Libertad Avanza" faced a setback in the Buenos Aires provincial assembly elections, contributing to a decline in Milei's government approval ratings [1] - Allegations of bribery involving key government officials have added to the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming midterm elections in October [1] Group 3: Market Reaction - On the day of Milei's address, Argentina's country risk index surpassed 1200 points, indicating ongoing financial market volatility [1]

新华财经布宜诺斯艾利斯9月15日电（记者张铎、王钟毅）阿根廷总统米莱15日就2026年预算发表电视 讲话，重申不会修改经济政策，并强调实现财政平衡。 米莱表示，财政平衡是不容商榷的目标，如果能实现这一目标，阿根廷经济将在历经数十年停滞后迎来 难以想象的增长，否则将再次陷入失控的通货膨胀。 米莱领导的执政联盟"自由前进党"7日在布宜诺斯艾利斯省议会选举中失利，加之总统府秘书长卡琳娜· 米莱及国家残疾人管理局局长迭戈·斯帕尼奥洛等人涉嫌收受医疗企业贿赂等多重原因影响，导致米莱 政府的民调支持率出现下降，金融市场持续动荡，给将于今年10月举行的阿根廷国会中期选举增添了不 确定性。 米莱发表电视讲话当日，阿根廷国家风险指数突破1200点。 （文章来源：新华财经） 米莱在讲话中说，"最糟糕的时期已经过去"，2026年预算为公立大学拨款4.8万亿比索，养老金支出和 公共医疗支出分别增加5%和17%，增幅均高于通胀率。 米莱再次强调希望增加投资，表示必须创造条件让企业盈利。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks and uncertainties facing the U.S. economy in the second half of 2025, particularly focusing on the impact of tariffs and the "Beautiful America Act" on economic performance and market behavior [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The IMF has revised down the global GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January, with the U.S. forecast lowered from 2.7% to 1.8%, a drop of 0.9 percentage points [1]. - There is a need to guard against the risk of an unexpected economic downturn, especially if the unemployment rate rises to the range of 4.4% to 4.6%, which could trigger a "recession trade" in the market [2][5]. Group 2: Tariffs and Legislative Impact - The two main themes for the second half of 2025 are the verification of tariff data and the potential impact of the "Beautiful America Act" [2]. - The introduction of Tariff 2.0 has increased uncertainty regarding trade, industrial production, and economic growth in the latter half of the year [1]. Group 3: Currency Dynamics - The article suggests that under the influence of a slowing U.S. economy and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the U.S. dollar may further depreciate, leading to a passive appreciation of the Renminbi against the dollar [8]. - If the U.S. moves towards fiscal balance following the implementation of the "Beautiful America Act," it could create additional space for interest rate cuts, potentially continuing the trend of gradual dollar depreciation [8].

Group 1 - Malaysia has implemented significant adjustments to the Sales and Service Tax (SST) starting July 1, imposing a 5% to 10% sales tax on non-essential and luxury goods, while expanding the service tax scope [1][2] - The new tax policy aims to broaden the tax base and increase fiscal revenue while selectively avoiding essential goods to mitigate the burden on the general public [1][4] - Luxury items such as imported salmon, high-end fruits, and truffles are taxed at 5%, while high-value collectibles like antiques and luxury cars are taxed at 10%, reflecting the government's consideration of consumer spending capacity [1][2] Group 2 - The expansion of the service tax includes sectors like leasing, construction, financial services, education, and beauty services, addressing long-standing gaps in the tax base [2][3] - The tax reform is part of the "Prosperous Economy" reform framework, emphasizing sustainable fiscal policies and social inclusivity while avoiding taxes on basic necessities [2][4] - Measures have been introduced to alleviate the impact on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), including exemptions for those with rental income below 500,000 MYR (approximately 117,900 USD) [3][4] Group 3 - The additional tax revenue will be allocated to enhance public services, expand cash assistance, and improve infrastructure and healthcare resources, aiming to reduce the budget deficit from approximately 4.3% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2025 [4] - The tax reform is designed to maintain basic government operations while gradually building a more robust tax system, balancing moderate adjustments with progressive reforms [4] - The government asserts that the tax burden will not increase on essential goods for the general public, but higher-income individuals will contribute more to address future economic pressures [4]

Core Insights - Bank of America Merrill Lynch warns that Trump's "Big Beautiful Plan" will not achieve fiscal balance through growth effects and will provide limited economic growth stimulus [1][2] Group 1: Economic Impact - The plan is estimated to cost $2.3 trillion but will only generate $102.8 billion in revenue feedback, resulting in a self-financing ratio of only 4.5% [2][3] - To achieve self-financing, GDP needs to grow by approximately 9% by the fiscal year 2034, which is deemed nearly impossible [2][3] Group 2: Growth Projections - The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) projects that the plan will only increase GDP by an average of 3 basis points over the next 10 years, with a maximum increase of 0.4% by the fiscal year 2034 [3][4] - Economic effects from 2025 to 2034 are projected as follows: Output increase of 0.4%, Business capital decrease of 0.1%, Labor increase of 0.6%, and Consumption increase of 0.8% [3][4] Group 3: Comparison with Other Estimates - The Tax Foundation estimates that the plan will lead to a long-term GDP growth of 0.8%, covering about one-third of its costs [4] - The Wharton School predicts a GDP growth of 0.4% in the first decade, raising the annual growth rate from 1.8% to 1.85% [4] - The Yale Budget Lab suggests that the plan may raise growth rates from 1.8% to about 2% by 2027, but federal debt will eventually reverse this effect [4]

Group 1: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about the Chinese stock market, with a baseline expectation for the MSCI China Index at 80 and a target for the CSI 300 Index at 4150 points [1] - UBS sees foreign capital inflow as a significant trading logic for the Chinese stock market in the coming quarters, with Hong Kong stocks expected to outperform A-shares [1] - Deutsche Bank analysts express concerns about fiscal balance in countries outside the US, highlighting Japan's low demand for 20-year bonds as a sign of fiscal stress [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Barclays analysts predict a potential further decline in the US dollar, but strong economic data may limit the extent of the drop [2] - ANZ analysts note that the downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's has reignited interest in gold due to concerns over economic slowdown and rising inflation [3] - CBA forecasts gold prices to reach $3750 per ounce in Q4, driven by safe-haven demand and a weakening dollar [4] Group 3: Industry Insights - CICC reports that the domestic nutrition and health food industry has significant long-term growth potential, with a market size exceeding $35 billion [5] - CITIC Securities indicates that the pesticide industry in China is accelerating consolidation, with leading companies enhancing competitiveness through mergers and acquisitions [6] - CITIC Securities also highlights that the domestic wind turbine industry is expected to enter a phase of simultaneous growth in volume and price due to improved supply-demand dynamics [7]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns about fiscal balance are not limited to the United States, with Japan's recent bond auction demand hitting a 10-year low, indicating broader global debt worries [1] Group 1: Debt Levels - The debt-to-GDP ratios for the US and UK stand at 100%, while Japan's is significantly higher at 250% [1] - In 1999, the debt-to-GDP ratios for these countries were much lower, at 41% for the US, 42% for the UK, and 113% for Japan [1] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The current environment presents unprecedented challenges for the long-term bond market, as it has not been experienced in over 30 years amid high global debt levels [1] - An increase in bond supply is anticipated in the coming years, creating a pressing need for inflation control in the long-term market [1]