华创证券发布研报称，中国宏桥(01378)作为全球领先铝全产业链生产商，全产业链配套及规模优势打 造盈利护城河，铝土矿、电力、氧化铝高自给率保障公司吨铝成本优势。该行预计25-27年公司实现归 母净利润248.03亿元、258.1亿元、279.6亿元，分别同比+10.9%、4.1%、8.3%。2026年行业可比公司平 均估值为11倍，考虑公司高股息属性，给予公司2026年12倍市盈率，目标价为34.3港元，维持"推荐"评 级。 综合铝价波动和原料成本变化，该行上调25-27年铝价假设为2.06/2.1/2.13万元/吨，下调25-27年氧化铝 假设为0.32/0.275/0.275万元/吨。 华创证券主要观点如下： 公司完成配售事项，主要满足国内外项目和偿债需要，未来资产结构和质量有望进一步优化 美减产，铝上涨弹性或更强，铝成本下行电解铝利润有望维持高位，看好铝红利+弹性。而中国宏桥电 解铝产能位于全球前列，且高分红+回购持续推进，红利资产属性逐步凸显，有望核心受益。 公司旗下西芒杜铁矿正式投产，未来将增厚公司业绩 2025年11月11日，几内亚西芒杜铁矿项目投产仪式举行，标志着全球大型优质铁矿石项目正式投产 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that severe supply disruptions and global inventory imbalances will drive copper prices to reach $12,500 per ton in the first half of 2026 [1] Group 1: Copper Market - The anticipated rise in copper prices is expected to influence aluminum prices, with projections indicating that aluminum could surpass $3,000 per ton in the first half of 2026 [1]

Group 1 - China Hongqiao announced a placement of 400 million shares at a price of HKD 29.2 per share, representing approximately 4.03% of the enlarged share capital, with expected net fundraising of about HKD 11.49 billion [1] - Morgan Stanley believes that part of the raised funds will be used for share buybacks in the market to enhance shareholder returns and support the stock price [1] - Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about aluminum price prospects due to limited supply growth, both domestically (restricted by government production caps) and internationally (mainly constrained by power supply), alongside resilient demand, particularly from the energy storage sector [1] Group 2 - The robust industrial fundamentals are expected to support further increases in aluminum prices, which will boost Hongqiao's earnings performance in 2026 [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on Hongqiao with a target price of HKD 30.6 [1]

Core Insights - Aluminum prices have risen above $2,900 per metric ton, supported by easing trade tensions [1] - Year-to-date, aluminum prices have increased by over 13%, making it the third-best performing metal on the London Metal Exchange after copper and tin [1] - Analysts from ING indicate that there are few new smelters being announced in Europe or the U.S. due to producers struggling to secure affordable long-term power contracts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous rise in aluminum prices has led to significant gains in the stock prices of major aluminum companies, with many reaching new highs this year [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 12, 2023, 16 out of 32 listed aluminum companies have seen stock price increases exceeding 50% this year, with Hong Chuang Holdings, Zhongfu Industrial, and Yian Technology leading with increases of 156%, 149%, and 127% respectively [1]. - Companies like Tianshan Aluminum and Shenhuo Co. have also reached their highest stock prices since listing [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - Aluminum futures and spot prices have remained strong, with London spot aluminum prices up 13.1% year-to-date, reaching $2,885 per ton, and COMEX aluminum futures up 11.73% at $2,845 per ton [2]. - The main futures contract in Shanghai has also seen a rise of over 10%, reaching 21,880 yuan per ton [2]. Group 3: Company Performance - Nanshan Aluminum reported a revenue of 26.325 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2023, an increase of 8.66% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.772 billion yuan, up 8.09% [2]. - Tianshan Aluminum's revenue for the same period was 22.321 billion yuan, a 7.34% increase, with a net profit of 3.34 billion yuan, up 8.31% [3]. - China Aluminum's profit for the first three quarters of 2023 reached 20.775 billion yuan, an 18.47% increase, with a net profit of 10.872 billion yuan, up 20.65% [3]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is constrained by a production cap of approximately 45 million tons per year, leading to a rigid supply structure [4]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity utilization is high, generally around 97%-98%, with some areas exceeding 100% [6]. - Analysts predict that the demand for aluminum in sectors like power transmission, photovoltaics, and energy storage will continue to grow, supporting future aluminum prices [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the global aluminum market may enter a replenishment cycle due to historically low inventories, with supply constraints likely to support high aluminum prices [6]. - The long-term outlook for aluminum prices remains positive, driven by consumption, although short-term supply disruptions may create volatility [7].

Group 1 - Multiple aluminum companies experienced significant stock price increases, with China Aluminum's market value surpassing 180 billion yuan after hitting the daily limit [1] - Aluminum futures prices have been on the rise since the second half of the year, with LME aluminum futures increasing by 23.7% from a low of 2,300 USD/ton in April to 2,845.5 USD/ton as of November 5 [1] - The Shanghai aluminum futures have also seen a 5.20% increase over the past three months, reaching 21,630 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - Institutions are optimistic about future aluminum prices, citing stable domestic supply and demand fundamentals, along with production cuts from overseas due to equipment failures [3] - The aluminum water ratio has reached a historical high of 77%, indicating strong consumption growth, with expectations for a real consumption peak in November and December [4] - The stock market has outperformed commodity prices recently, driven by ongoing supply constraints, with a potential for significant price increases if demand assumptions improve [4] Group 3 - Downstream processing enterprises are showing positive trends, with average operating rates increasing for five consecutive weeks, while domestic electrolytic aluminum supply remains tight [4] - The alumina supply is relatively loose, with an annual production capacity of approximately 88.5 million tons, leading to profit transfers towards the electrolytic aluminum sector [4] - Continued favorable policies and sustained demand from sectors like new energy vehicles and electricity are expected to support aluminum prices, with a positive outlook for 2025 [4]

Group 1 - China Hongqiao's stock price increased by over 10%, reaching a new high of 32.64 HKD, with a trading volume of 1.166 billion HKD [1] - The rise in aluminum prices is driven by ongoing supply disruptions overseas, including a production cut at Century Aluminum's Grundartangi smelter affecting 200,000 tons of capacity [1] - South32's Mozal aluminum plant may suspend operations after March 2026 if new power contracts are not secured, and Rio Tinto is considering stopping operations at its Tomago smelter after 2028 [1] Group 2 - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao and raises the target price from 25.2 HKD to 36 HKD, considering it a preferred stock [2] - Despite strong stock performance year-to-date, the forecasted dividend yield for 2026 remains attractive at 6.7% [2] - Earnings forecasts for China Hongqiao for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been increased by 2%, 5%, and 7% respectively, reflecting higher aluminum and alumina sales and prices [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] Report Core View - In the long - term, with supply constraints, the high industry profit is not a factor limiting the rise of aluminum prices. Short - term price increases require resonance of positive macro and strong micro - consumption. In the current off - season, there is a small increase in social inventory, and long - term long opportunities can be considered after short - term pullbacks. For alumina, the current price is undervalued, but the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the replenishment behavior of electrolytic aluminum plants is hard to sustain. [6][7][8] Summary According to Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On October 30, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,200 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 10 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of Central China A00 aluminum was 21,060 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 150 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 21,070 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 135 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. [1] Aluminum Futures - On October 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,290 yuan/ton, closed at 21,245 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a high of 21,360 yuan/ton and a low of 21,210 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 168,592 lots, and the open interest was 275,967 lots. [2] Aluminum Inventory - As of October 30, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 619,000 tons, down 7,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 66,418 tons, up 374 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 459,525 tons, down 3,225 tons from the previous trading day. [2] Alumina Spot Price - On October 30, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,845 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,015 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,025 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 319 US dollars/ton. [2] Alumina Futures - On October 30, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,875 yuan/ton, closed at 2,816 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 0.98%, with a high of 2,879 yuan/ton and a low of 2,803 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 436,078 lots, and the open interest was 392,755 lots. [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On October 30, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,800 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 73,500 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 58,700 tons. [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,905 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 5 yuan/ton. [5] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The smelting profit has expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton in the off - season. In the long - term, with supply constraints, high profit is not a limiting factor for price increase. In the short - term, price increase needs positive macro and strong consumption. In the current off - season, social inventory has a small increase, and it is expected to accumulate slightly in July. Even after accumulation, the inventory is still at a historical low level, and delivery risks should be long - term vigilant. [6] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina is low, and electrolytic aluminum plants are actively purchasing forward alumina due to rich profits and winter storage demand. The market activity has increased, but the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. The cost of the northern ore supply is still tight, and the import ore is slightly declining. The reduction of ore price does not improve the alumina smelting loss, and the ex - factory price is under greater pressure. [7][8] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Bullish on aluminum with caution, neutral on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution. [9] - **Arbitrage**: Long the near - term and short the far - term in Shanghai aluminum. [9]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao's subsidiary Shandong Hongqiao, raising the target price from HKD 26.00 to HKD 35.00 based on strong revenue and profit growth [1] Group 1: Company Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Shandong Hongqiao reported total revenue of CNY 116.93 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.23%, and a net profit of CNY 19.37 billion, up 23.13% year-on-year [1] - In Q3, net profit reached CNY 6.9 billion, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase and a 14% quarter-on-quarter increase, aligning with expectations; the gross margin expanded by 3 percentage points to 26% [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The aluminum industry in China is expected to remain resilient in Q4 due to low inventory, stable upstream supply, and seasonal demand from the power grid, with aluminum prices slightly strengthening [2] - Current spot aluminum prices have risen above CNY 21,000 per ton, while alumina prices remain in the range of CNY 2,800–2,900 per ton, with aluminum profit margins expanding to over CNY 5,000 per ton [2] Group 3: Future Projections - Bank of America has adjusted its aluminum price forecasts, raising the 2025 expectation to CNY 20,600 per ton (+CNY 100 per ton) and the 2026 long-term forecast to CNY 21,000 per ton [2] - The bank has increased its profit forecasts for China Hongqiao for 2025-2027 by 5%-23%, projecting a net profit of CNY 26 billion for 2025 (up 17% year-on-year) and CNY 30 billion for 2026 (up 15% year-on-year) [2] Group 4: Investment Rationale - Reasons for maintaining the "Buy" rating include a constructive outlook on aluminum prices, attractive dividend yield (6%-7% under a 63% payout ratio), and the expected contribution from the Ximangdu project, which is anticipated to start production by the end of 2025 [3] - The ongoing share buyback program is expected to support the stock price, with the current target price corresponding to a 10x P/E ratio for 2026, which remains attractive compared to Chinese copper companies (12-16x) and gold companies (16-17x) [3]

Core Insights - Aluminum is gaining market attention, with prices nearing $2,900 per ton, marking a three-year high and within the top 5% of the price range from 1990 to 2025, indicating a potential structural shortage in the coming years [1][3] - The global aluminum supply surplus is expected to narrow by 2026, leading to a projected supply deficit of approximately 1.4 million tons by 2027, driven by increasing demand from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [3][6] - China, as the largest producer and consumer of aluminum, is approaching its production capacity limit of 45 million tons, which could impact global supply dynamics [3][5] Industry Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for aluminum is significantly driven by electric vehicles, which use about 150 pounds more aluminum than internal combustion engine vehicles, and by the solar power sector, where aluminum is the second-largest metal input after steel [4] - Global aluminum production is facing challenges, particularly in Europe, where smelters are closing due to the expiration of long-term cheap electricity contracts, contributing to a tightening supply situation [6] - Indonesia is emerging as a key player in the aluminum market, with potential plans for new smelting facilities that could increase its production fivefold by 2030, positioning it as the fourth-largest producer globally [7][8] Market Outlook - Analysts suggest a dual outcome for the aluminum market: either prices will rise significantly, impacting the global economy, or the supply chain will become increasingly reliant on Chinese companies operating overseas [3][9] - The most likely scenario is a moderate price increase alongside a gradual rise in overseas production from countries like Indonesia, leading to a market adjustment to higher prices and deeper reliance on Chinese supply chains [9]