【编者按】 1月5日，复旦大学国际问题研究院对外发布复旦智库报告《冲击与重构：复旦国际战略报告2025》。复 旦大学国际问题研究院院长、美国研究中心主任吴心伯教授在报告的序言中指出，在特朗普2.0冲击 下，多极化步伐加快，美国和西方在世界舞台上的影响力进一步下降，全球南方加速崛起。变局之下， 世界在为后美国时代做准备。 智通财经（www.thepaper.cn）今起刊出"世局2026"系列，选刊该报告部分文章，展望"旧格局渐行渐 远，新格局轮廓初现"的2026年。 2025年在日本政治进程中占据着重要位置。继2024年10月丢掉众议院的多数议席之后，在2025年7月举 行的参议院选举中，自民党与公明党组成的执政联盟再次丢掉在参议院的多数议席。随后10月份举行的 自民党总裁选举中，高市早苗当选为自民党成立以来的第一位女总裁，尽管公明党随后退出执政联盟， 自民党却仍然得以继续执政，高市顺理成章地成为宪政史上首位女性首相。高市带领的自民党与日本维 新会组成联合政权，日本政治社会右倾化呈现加速态势。在去年11月的国会答辩中，高市早苗关于台湾 问题的错误言论遭到中国方面的强烈反对，导致中日关系陷入新一轮紧张状态。 当地 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's recent policy shifts are seen as a "triple betrayal" of its post-World War II commitments, challenging the legal framework that defines its status as a defeated nation [1][2]. Legal Foundations - The post-war international order for Japan is based on legal documents such as the Cairo Declaration, Potsdam Declaration, and its own "Peace Constitution," which Japan has increasingly deviated from [2][3]. - The "Peace Constitution" prohibits Japan from maintaining military forces or engaging in war, reflecting the international community's intent to limit Japan's military capabilities post-war [2]. Territorial Claims - Japan's actions regarding territorial sovereignty, particularly in the Diaoyu Islands and the Okinotorishima, demonstrate a systematic challenge to the legal constraints established by the Potsdam Declaration [3][4]. - The "gray zone strategy" employed by Japan aims to redefine territorial boundaries and assert claims that contradict international law [3]. Military Policy Changes - Japan's military policy has shifted from a defensive posture to one that includes collective self-defense and offensive capabilities, undermining the principles of its "Peace Constitution" [4][10]. - The 2014 reinterpretation of the constitution to allow collective self-defense and the 2022 National Security Strategy signify a departure from Japan's post-war military restrictions [4][10]. Historical Responsibility - Japan's historical narrative has become increasingly ambiguous, undermining its post-war peace responsibilities, which include acknowledging its wartime actions and fostering regional cooperation [11][12]. - The trend of downplaying historical aggression and revising educational materials reflects a broader shift away from Japan's commitment to peace and reconciliation [13][16]. Regional Cooperation - Japan's reliance on exclusive security frameworks, such as the Quad, raises concerns about regional cooperation and the potential for increased tensions [14][16]. - The shift towards militarization and away from cooperative security mechanisms threatens the stability of the post-war order in East Asia [16]. Arms Export Policy - Japan's historical restrictions on arms exports are being eroded, with recent policy changes indicating a move towards a more aggressive military export stance [15][16]. - The potential for Japan to expand its military capabilities, including nuclear options, poses significant risks to regional security dynamics [10][15].

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Kishi Nobuo's remarks regarding Taiwan have drawn international attention, as they are seen as interference in China's internal affairs and a challenge to the post-war international order [1][2][3] Group 1: Legal Basis of Taiwan's Status - Taiwan is an inseparable part of China's territory, supported by international law, with historical claims dating back to China's discovery and administrative control [2] - The Cairo Declaration of 1943 and the Potsdam Declaration of 1945 reaffirm that Taiwan must be returned to China, establishing a legal framework for Taiwan's status [2] - The UN Resolution 2758 in 1971 recognized the People's Republic of China as the sole legitimate representative of China, further solidifying the international consensus on Taiwan's status [2] Group 2: Violations of International Law - Kishi's comments classify Taiwan as a "foreign country," which violates the UN Charter's principles of non-interference and prohibition of the threat of force [3][4] - The remarks contradict Japan's commitments under the 1972 Sino-Japanese Joint Statement, which acknowledges the PRC as the only legitimate government of China and respects its stance on Taiwan [3] - Kishi's interpretation of Taiwan as a "foreign country" undermines the post-war international order and Japan's obligations under international law [3][4] Group 3: China's Legal Response - China has sufficient legal grounds to defend its sovereignty and can take multiple measures against Japan, including demanding a retraction of Kishi's statements and public apology [4] - If Japan continues military expansion or attempts to intervene in the Taiwan Strait, China may invoke the UN Charter to take necessary actions without prior UN Security Council authorization [4] - China can implement countermeasures against Japanese companies involved in Taiwan-related issues, including export controls and restrictions on military exchanges [4]

Group 1 - Japan's recent diplomatic actions, particularly regarding Taiwan, reveal a pattern of deception and manipulation, as evidenced by the Defense Minister's contradictory statements about radar incidents and the subsequent backlash from China [1][3] - Historical context shows that Japan has a history of using deceitful diplomacy, as highlighted by former U.S. Secretary of State Hull's remarks on Japan's dishonesty leading up to the Pearl Harbor attack [2][3] - The current Japanese government's narrative, which includes promoting the "China threat" theory, is seen as a strategy to escape post-war international constraints and pursue military expansion [3][4] Group 2 - The Japanese right-wing's tendency to fabricate narratives and engage in strategic opportunism poses a significant concern for the international community, especially given Japan's unresolved war crimes and historical denial [4] - Recent actions by Japanese politicians, such as commemorating the Pearl Harbor attack while claiming victimhood, indicate a troubling regression in historical understanding and a willingness to provoke tensions [4] - The international community is urged to remain vigilant against the resurgence of Japanese militarism, which could threaten global order and stability [4]

Group 1 - The Japanese government is advancing military expansion measures, raising concerns among various sectors and citizen groups regarding the contradiction with Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution, which emphasizes peace principles [1] - Legal experts argue that the current security laws, including the "Collective Self-Defense" provisions, violate the constitutional framework and have led to the establishment of the so-called "Security Three Documents" [1] - There is a call to take action to prevent the ongoing trend of military policy advancement in Japan [1] Group 2 - Comments made by Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide in the Diet are viewed as crossing legal boundaries and deviating from Japan's longstanding stance on China, necessitating a retraction [3] - Legal experts assert that Suga's remarks regarding Taiwan are illegal and significantly impact Japan-China relations, urging for an immediate retraction and acknowledgment of the error [5]

Group 1 - Recent remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi have sparked ongoing criticism domestically and internationally, as they contradict existing diplomatic agreements between Japan and China and deviate from Japan's long-standing peace-oriented policy [1] - Political scholars in Japan argue that Takaichi's statements undermine the principle of resolving issues peacefully and violate the agreements outlined in the Japan-China Joint Statement, which recognizes the People's Republic of China as the sole legitimate government of China and respects Taiwan as an inseparable part of its territory [1] - The Japanese government has been increasing its defense budget and pushing for constitutional amendments, which alters the post-war security framework and raises tensions in the region [1] Group 2 - Takaichi's cabinet is interpreted as promoting military expansion and constitutional amendments, including changes to Article 9 of the constitution, with defense-related expenditures rising from 27 trillion yen to 43 trillion yen over five years, aiming to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP, indicating a shift towards a "military power" strategy [3] - The Japanese Ministry of Defense has been intensifying outreach to youth and children, distributing a children's version of the Defense White Paper to elementary schools, which challenges the principle of educational neutrality and may significantly influence the next generation's understanding of history and neighboring countries [4] - Materials distributed by the Ministry of Defense in schools highlight issues such as the shortage of Self-Defense Forces personnel and include language encouraging military enlistment, naming countries like Russia, North Korea, and China as hypothetical adversaries, potentially fostering unnecessary negative sentiments towards China among children [6]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's provocative statement on November 7, suggesting that "Taiwan's situation" could constitute a "survival crisis" for Japan, implies a potential justification for Japan to exercise collective self-defense or intervene in Taiwan affairs, indicating a willingness for military involvement in the Taiwan issue [1] Group 1: Legal and International Relations Implications - Takaichi's attempt to categorize "Taiwan's situation" as a "survival crisis" reflects a disregard for Japan's obligations under international law, challenging the post-World War II international order and undermining fundamental principles of international law [2][5] - The legal basis for Taiwan's status is firmly established in international law, with documents such as the Cairo Declaration and the Potsdam Proclamation affirming Taiwan's return to China, thus making Taiwan's issue a matter of China's internal affairs [3] - Japan's invocation of domestic law to justify interference in a sovereign nation's internal matters is a blatant challenge to the principles of sovereignty and non-interference that are foundational to modern international law [5] Group 2: Collective Self-Defense and Military Actions - Japan's linkage of the "survival crisis" concept to collective self-defense represents a significant legal overreach, as collective self-defense is strictly limited to situations of actual armed attack, as outlined in the UN Charter [6] - The vague definition of "survival crisis" expands the interpretation of self-defense beyond the strict confines of international law, potentially allowing Japan to justify military actions without direct provocation [6] - Recent military deployments, such as missile installations on Yonaguni Island, are seen as provocative actions that threaten China's sovereignty and escalate regional tensions, undermining peace and stability [7] Group 3: Domestic Law vs. International Obligations - The fundamental flaw in Japan's "survival crisis" concept lies in its attempt to prioritize domestic law over international obligations, which is explicitly prohibited by the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties [8] - Japan's domestic legal interpretations cannot serve as a valid excuse for violating established international law principles, including non-interference and the prohibition of the use of force [8] - The attempt to elevate domestic law above international law represents a serious challenge to the international legal system and the spirit of international law [8] Group 4: Historical Context and Commitments - Japan's application of the "survival crisis" concept to the Taiwan issue not only violates specific international law principles but also constitutes a fundamental departure from its post-war obligations as a defeated nation [9] - Japan has previously accepted and fulfilled its obligations under the Potsdam Proclamation and the Japanese surrender document, acknowledging Taiwan's return to China, making Takaichi's claims a distortion of historical documents and international law [9]

Core Viewpoint - The statements made by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida regarding Taiwan and the so-called "existential crisis" are seen as a dangerous attempt to revive militarism and historical revisionism, which could threaten both Japan's stability and regional peace [1][4]. Group 1: Japan's Military Intentions - Kishida's remarks linking Taiwan issues to Japan's survival indicate a desire for military intervention, undermining regional stability [1][2]. - The rhetoric suggests Japan is seeking to break free from its "peace constitution" constraints and justify collective self-defense, which could escalate tensions in the region [2][3]. Group 2: Historical Context and Legal Obligations - Japan's post-war commitments, including the renunciation of war and military threats, are being challenged by Kishida's government, which risks violating international agreements that restrict Japan's military actions [2][3]. - The historical context of Japan's militarism, including past invasions under the guise of "self-defense," raises concerns about a potential repeat of such actions [4]. Group 3: Regional Security Implications - Japan's actions could disrupt the established post-war international order and exacerbate security dilemmas in East Asia, leading to increased regional conflict [3][4]. - The potential for Japan to reinterpret its self-defense policies poses a significant risk to regional peace and stability, as it may provoke neighboring countries [3][4].

Group 1 - Recent remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding Taiwan have damaged the political foundation of Japan-China relations, severely worsening the atmosphere for personnel exchanges between the two countries [1][3] - Japan's economy is facing a crisis across various industries due to the potential fallout from Takaichi's statements, as highlighted by Japanese economist Hidetoshi Tashiro [1][3] - The tourism sector in Japan, heavily reliant on Chinese visitors, is at risk of significant contraction if the number of Chinese tourists declines sharply, which could lead to a broader economic impact on related industries such as dining, retail, and education [3][5] Group 2 - In 2024, the total trade volume between Japan and China is projected to reach $308.3 billion, with Japan exporting $152.01 billion and importing $156.25 billion from China, underscoring the importance of stable relations for economic health [3] - Tashiro warns that a deterioration in Japan-China relations could lead to a drastic reduction in Chinese tourists, which would pose an existential threat to Japan's tourism, dining, retail, and educational sectors, particularly universities [5]

Group 1 - Recent remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding Taiwan have damaged the political foundation of Japan-China relations, severely worsening the atmosphere for personnel exchanges between the two countries [1] - Japanese economist Hidetoshi Tashiro indicated that Takaichi's comments could lead to a crisis across various sectors in Japan [1][3] - China is Japan's largest trading partner, with a projected total trade volume of $308.3 billion in 2024, including exports from China worth $152.01 billion and imports to China worth $156.25 billion [3] Group 2 - The tourism industry in Japan heavily relies on Chinese tourists, and a significant decline in their numbers could lead to a contraction in related sectors [4] - Hidetoshi Tashiro warned that if Japan-China relations deteriorate, a reduction or complete halt of Chinese tourists could place Japan's tourism, dining, retail, and even education sectors, particularly universities, in a "survival crisis" [6] - The potential consequences of such a situation, triggered by the Prime Minister's remarks, would represent a significant tragedy for Japan [6]