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集装箱产业风险管理日报-20251015
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 03:44
Report Overview - The report is the Container Industry Risk Management Daily Report dated October 14, 2025, released by Nanhua Research Institute [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Today, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) fluctuated first, and the far - month contracts rose significantly in the afternoon. All EC contracts closed higher. The upward price is due to Maersk's successful price - holding in mid - to - late October and the price increase letters issued by the top three global shipping companies, as well as the escalation of the strike at the Port of Rotterdam. In the short term, the prices are likely to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the cease - fire process in Gaza and Sino - US relations. Strategies can be to stay on the sidelines or attempt a 10 - 12 positive spread arbitrage [3] Summary by Section EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For those with full shipping capacity or poor booking volume and worried about freight rate drops, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1700 - 1750 to lock in profits [2] - For those hoping to book cabins according to orders and worried about rising freight rates, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1450 - 1500 to determine booking costs in advance [2] Core Contradictions - The futures prices of EC rose today. Maersk's successful price - holding in mid - to - late October and price increase letters from major shipping companies, along with the Rotterdam port strike, supported the prices. In the short term, prices may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to geopolitical and trade relations [3] 利多解读 - The strike at the Port of Rotterdam has escalated, paralyzing container handling operations and increasing supply - side pressure. Maersk's successful price - holding in mid - to - late October and CMA CGM's price increase in November are positive factors [4] 利空解读 - On October 10, 2025, Trump proposed to impose a 100% tariff on China and implement new export controls on key software products, which is a negative factor [5] EC Basis Daily Changes - On October 15, 2025, the basis of EC contracts showed different degrees of change. For example, the basis of EC2510 was - 104.40, with a daily decrease of 6.80 and a weekly decrease of 109.89 [7] EC Price and Spreads - On October 15, 2025, the closing prices of EC contracts all increased. For example, EC2512 closed at 1674.1, with a daily increase of 7.14% and a weekly decrease of 4.68% [7] Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On October 30, Maersk's 20GP and 40GP opening quotes from Shanghai to Rotterdam were the same as the previous two periods. CMA CGM's quotes increased in November, while ONE's quotes decreased in mid - to - late October [9] Global Freight Rate Indexes - Different global freight rate indexes showed different trends. For example, the SCFIS European route index decreased by 1.40%, while the SCFI European route index increased by 9.99% [9] Global Major Port Waiting Times - On October 14, 2025, the waiting times at major ports changed compared to the previous day. For example, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.400 days [16] Ship Speeds and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Ports - On October 14, 2025, the speeds of different - sized container ships decreased slightly compared to the previous day, and the number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal ports increased by 4 [24]
集装箱产业风险管理日报-20251013
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 11:39
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, the futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) oscillated at a low level with a slight upward trend. As of the close, the prices of EC contracts showed mixed movements. The main reason for the overall oscillatory trend of today's futures price is that although the US announced a 100% tariff increase on China, subsequent statements on social media by Trump and Vance were more conciliatory, leading to an oscillating macro - sentiment. Additionally, the near - month contracts rebounded due to CMA CGM's announcement of a November freight rate increase. In the short term, the futures price is likely to continue oscillating. It is necessary to closely monitor the cease - fire process in Gaza and Sino - US relations. Strategically, one can generally remain on the sidelines or attempt a 10 - 12 positive spread strategy [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Position Management**: For those who have already acquired positions but have full capacity or poor booking volumes during the peak season and are worried about falling freight rates (long position in spot), to prevent losses, they can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's position to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2512, with a selling recommendation and an entry range of 1700 - 1750 [2]. - **Cost Management**: When shipping companies increase blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, and they hope to book cabins according to order situations (short position in spot), to prevent an increase in transportation costs due to rising freight rates, they can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2512, with a buying recommendation and an entry range of 1450 - 1500 [2]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - As of the close, for the EC2510 contract, long positions decreased by 1414 lots to 9464 lots, short positions decreased by 1129 lots to 10337 lots, and trading volume decreased by 946 lots to 6566 lots (bilateral) [3]. 3.3利多解读 - On the evening of October 12, US Eastern Time, the US stock futures market rebounded after Friday's sharp decline. Dow Jones futures rose 0.7%, more than 300 points. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures rose 0.9% and 1% respectively. Earlier in the morning, US President Trump softened his tone, saying that US - China relations "will be fine" and that the US wants to help China rather than harm it [4]. - CMA CGM officially announced a November price increase. Starting from November 1, the quoted price for the Asia - to - Northern Europe route will rise to $1500/TEU and $2600/FEU [4]. 3.4利空解读 - On October 10, 2025, Trump stated that the US would impose a 100% tariff on China and implement new export controls on key software products [5]. 3.5 EC Basis Daily Changes - For EC2510, the basis was - 97.60 points, with a daily change of - 8.30 points and a weekly change of - 79.09 points [6]. - For EC2512, the basis was - 530.70 points, with a daily change of 8.50 points and a weekly change of 125.81 points [6]. - For EC2602, the basis was - 328.10 points, with a daily change of - 21.90 points and a weekly change of 236.41 points [6]. - For EC2604, the basis was - 66.70 points, with a daily change of - 29.50 points and a weekly change of 81.41 points [6]. - For EC2606, the basis was - 236.2 points, with a daily change of - 34.10 points and a weekly change of - 7.62 points [6]. 3.6 EC Price and Spreads - For EC2510, the closing price was 1129.4 points, with a daily increase of 0.74% and a weekly decrease of 0.84% [8]. - For EC2512, the closing price was 1562.5 points, with a daily decrease of 0.54% and a weekly decrease of 12.07% [8]. - For EC2602, the closing price was 1359.9 points, with a daily increase of 1.64% and a weekly decrease of 19.29% [8]. - For EC2604, the closing price was 1098.5 points, with a daily increase of 1.25% and a weekly decrease of 13.41% [8]. - For EC2606, the closing price was 1268.0 points, with a daily increase of 1.55% and a weekly decrease of 14.53% [8]. - For EC2608, the closing price was 1395.8 points, with a daily decrease of 0.66% and a weekly decrease of 13.69% [8]. 3.7集运现舱报价(CY - CY,上海—鹿特丹) - On October 24, for Maersk's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1095, a $10 increase from the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1830, a $20 increase from the previous period [10]. - In late October, for CMA CGM's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1210/1345, a $100 decrease from the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2020/2292, a $200 and $199 decrease from the previous period respectively. For Hapag - Lloyd's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam during the same period, the total quote for 20GP was $1185, a $50 decrease from the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1935, a $100 decrease from the previous period [10]. 3.8 Global Freight Rate Index - SCFIS: European Route was 1031.8 points, down 14.7 points (- 1.40%) from the previous value [11]. - SCFIS: US West Route was 862.48 points, down 14.34 points (- 1.64%) from the previous value [11]. - SCFI: European Route was $1068/TEU, up $97 (9.99%) from the previous value [11]. - SCFI: US West Route was $1468/FEU, up $8 (0.55%) from the previous value [11]. - XSI: European Route was $1603/FEU, unchanged from the previous value [11]. - XSI: US West Route was $1478/FEU, down $5 (- 0.3%) from the previous value [11]. - FBX Comprehensive Freight Rate Index was $1540/FEU, unchanged from the previous value [11]. 3.9 Global Major Port Waiting Times - Hong Kong Port: On October 12, 2025, the waiting time was 0.832 days, a decrease of 0.207 days from the previous day, compared with 0.948 days in the same period last year [18]. - Shanghai Port: On October 12, 2025, the waiting time was 0.763 days, a decrease of 0.517 days from the previous day, compared with 1.246 days in the same period last year [18]. - Yantian Port: On October 12, 2025, the waiting time was 1.925 days, a decrease of 0.278 days from the previous day [18]. - Singapore Port: On October 12, 2025, the waiting time was 1.174 days, a decrease of 0.068 days from the previous day, compared with 0.515 days in the same period last year [18]. - Jakarta Port: On October 12, 2025, the waiting time was 1.414 days, an increase of 0.285 days from the previous day, compared with 1.206 days in the same period last year [18]. - Long Beach Port: On October 12, 2025, the waiting time was 1.892 days, a decrease of 0.007 days from the previous day, compared with 1.798 days in the same period last year [18]. - Savannah Port: On October 12, 2025, the waiting time was 1.355 days, an increase of 0.833 days from the previous day, compared with 1.864 days in the same period last year [18]. 3.10 Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorages - For 8000 + container ships, on October 12, 2025, the speed was about 15.618 knots, a decrease of 0.005 knots from the previous day, compared with 15.845 knots in the same period last year [26]. - For 3000 + container ships, on October 12, 2025, the speed was about 14.882 knots, a decrease of 0.037 knots from the previous day, compared with 15.081 knots in the same period last year [26]. - For 1000 + container ships, on October 12, 2025, the speed was about 13.352 knots, an increase of 0.116 knots from the previous day, compared with 13.538 knots in the same period last year [26]. - The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage on October 12, 2025, was 11, an increase of 1 from the previous day, compared with 6 in the same period last year [26].
集装箱产业风险管理日报-20251009
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 12:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, the futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) opened lower, declined, and then fluctuated upwards. By the close, all EC contracts' prices had declined to varying degrees, with the 02 and 06 contracts dropping by over 10%. [3] - The initial low - opening and decline of today's futures price were mainly due to the preliminary agreement on the Gaza cease - fire negotiation, which negatively affected market sentiment and caused the futures price, especially that of the far - month contracts, to fall. Additionally, Maersk's announcement of the European Line booking quotes for late October, which were the same as the previous week's, led to a recovery in the futures price. [3] - In the short term, the futures price is likely to continue fluctuating. However, given past precedents, the Gaza cease - fire process may be volatile, so relevant situations need close attention. Strategically, it is advisable to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach or conduct intraday short - term operations. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - **Position Management**: For those who have already obtained positions but have full capacity or poor booking volumes and are worried about falling freight rates (long position), they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2512) to lock in profits at an entry range of 1750 - 1800. [2] - **Cost Management**: When shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or when the peak season is approaching, and they hope to book cabins according to order situations (short position), they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2512) at an entry range of 1550 - 1600 to prevent rising freight rates from increasing transportation costs. [2] Market Data - **EC Contracts' Price and Position Data**: The EC2510 contract's long - position holders reduced their positions by 2031 lots to 12580 lots, and short - position holders reduced by 1651 lots to 13367 lots. The trading volume increased by 3842 lots to 20660 lots (bilateral). [3] - **EC Contracts' Closing Prices and Changes**: On October 9, 2025, EC2510 closed at 1119.9 points, up 0.84% daily and 0.49% weekly; EC2512 closed at 1688.0 points, down 2.53% daily and 0.50% weekly; EC2602 closed at 1406.0 points, down 14.41% daily and 11.47% weekly; EC2604 closed at 1119.9 points, down 9.95% daily and 11.19% weekly; EC2606 closed at 1277.5 points, down 13.05% daily and 11.61% weekly; EC2608 closed at 1438.6 points, down 9.85% daily and 9.73% weekly. [7] - **Global Freight Rate Index**: SCFIS for the European route was 1046.5 points, down 73.99 points or 6.60% from the previous value; for the US - West route, it was 876.82 points, down 44.43 points or 4.82%. SCFI for the European route was $971/TEU, down $81 or 7.70%; for the US - West route, it was $1460/FEU, down $176 or 10.76%. XSI for the European route was $1783/FEU, down $53 or 2.89%; for the US - West route, it was $1768/FEU, down $4 or 0.2%. The FBX comprehensive freight rate index was $1613/FEU, down $25 or 1.53%. [10] - **Container Shipping Quotes**: On October 24, Maersk's total quotes for 20GP and 40GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam were $1080 and $1800 respectively, the same as the previous week's opening quotes. [9] - **Global Major Ports' Waiting Times**: On October 8, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 1.543 days, up 0.097 days from the previous day; Shanghai Port was 0.821 days, down 0.322 days; Yantian Port was 1.516 days, down 0.315 days; Singapore Port was 0.620 days, up 0.109 days; Jakarta Port was 1.112 days, down 0.031 days; Long Beach Port was 2.209 days, up 0.002 days; Savannah Port was 1.583 days, up 0.565 days. [17] - **Container Ship Speeds and Waiting Ships in Suez Canal**: On October 8, 2025, the average speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.55 knots, up 0.067 knots from the previous day; 3000 + container ships was 14.941 knots, up 0.066 knots; 1000 + container ships was 13.276 knots, up 0.064 knots. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorages was 8, down 6 from the previous day. [25]
集装箱产业风险管理日报-20250930
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 10:18
Report Overview - Report Title: Container Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 30, 2025 - Author: Yu Junchen [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Today, the futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) opened lower, fluctuated upwards, and then significantly declined near the close. As of the close, the prices of EC contracts showed mixed trends. Near the National Day holiday, some investors gradually closed their positions. The futures price is influenced by both long and short factors, and in the short term, it is likely to continue to fluctuate. For the 12 - contract, low - long opportunities can be continuously monitored, and overall, it is advisable to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach or conduct intraday short - term operations [3] Summary by Section EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For position management, if the position has been acquired but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and there are concerns about falling freight rates (long spot exposure), to prevent losses, short the container shipping index futures according to the company's position to lock in profits. Recommend selling the EC2510 contract at an entry range of 1200 - 1300 [2] - For cost management, if the shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or the market peak season is approaching, and one hopes to book cabins according to the order situation (short spot exposure), to prevent the increase in transportation costs due to rising freight rates, buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. Recommend buying the EC2510 contract at an entry range of 950 - 1050 [2] Core Contradictions - The EC2510 contract saw a reduction of 2161 long positions to 14922, a reduction of 2106 short positions to 15712, and a decrease in trading volume of 2414 to 17476 (bilateral) [3] - Bullish factor: MSC announced a price increase notice from the Far East to the Nordic route from October 15th to 31st, which has a certain positive impact on the market [3] - Bearish factors: The actual implementation of price increase notices this year has been infrequent, market expectations are relatively weak, MSC lowered the European Line quotes for mid - to - late October, and the new SCFIS European Line is lower than market expectations, pulling down the futures price valuation [3] Bullish Interpretations - MSC announced a price increase notice for mid - to - late October, with sea freight rates of $1320/TEU and $2200/FEU from the Far East to the Nordic region [4] - The Israeli military continues to attack the Gaza Strip, causing dozens of deaths in one day, and Hamas said it has not received any proposals from Trump or mediators [4] Bearish Interpretations - US President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu are scheduled to meet at the White House on the 29th. Trump said on the 28th that he hopes the two sides can finalize a Gaza peace plan, and Netanyahu said that the US and Israel are jointly formulating a new cease - fire plan, with details still under discussion [5] - MSC's European Line quotes declined in early to mid - October [5] EC Basis Daily Changes - On September 30, 2025, the basis of EC2510 was 9.89 points, with a daily increase of 4.40 points and a weekly decrease of 145.03 points [6] - The basis of EC2512 was - 611.41 points, with a daily increase of 24.40 points and a weekly decrease of 242.93 points [6] - The basis of EC2602 was - 522.31 points, with a daily increase of 24.20 points and a weekly decrease of 241.63 points [6] EC Price and Spread - On September 30, 2025, the closing price of EC2510 was 1110.6 points, with a daily decline of 0.39% and a weekly increase of 0.96% [7] - The closing price of EC2512 was 1731.9 points, with a daily decline of 1.39% and a weekly increase of 6.68% [7] - The closing price of EC2602 was 1642.8 points, with a daily decline of 1.45% and a weekly increase of 6.98% [7] Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - For Maersk's sailings from Shanghai to Rotterdam on October 15th, the total quote for 20GP was $1144, a recovery of $5 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1911, a recovery of $11 [9] - For Maersk's sailings on October 16th, the total quote for 20GP was $1090, a recovery of $5, and the total quote for 40GP was $1820, a recovery of $10 [9] - For MSC's sailings in the past two weeks, the total quote for 20GP was $855, a decrease of $60, and the total quote for 40GP was $1415, a decrease of $100. For mid - to - late October, the total quote for 20GP was $1245, a recovery of $330, and the total quote for 40GP was $2065, a recovery of $550 [9] - For Evergreen's sailings in mid - to - late October, the total quote for 20GP was $1355, a recovery of $300, and the total quote for 40GP was $2060, a recovery of $450 [9] Global Freight Rate Index - The latest value of SCFIS for the European route was 1120.49 points, a decrease of 134.43 points (- 10.71%) from the previous value [10] - The latest value of SCFIS for the US West route was 921.25 points, a decrease of 272.39 points (- 22.82%) from the previous value [10] - The latest value of SCFI for the European route was $971/TEU, a decrease of $81 (- 7.70%) from the previous value [10] Global Major Port Waiting Times - On September 29, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 2.020 days, an increase of 0.450 days from the previous day, and 0.362 days in the same period last year [17] - The waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.135 days, an increase of 0.252 days from the previous day, and 2.284 days in the same period last year [17] - The waiting time at Yantian Port was 3.218 days, an increase of 0.955 days from the previous day, and 0.447 days in the same period last year [17] Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage - On September 29, 2025, the average speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.547 knots, an increase of 0.008 knots from the previous day, and 15.544 knots in the same period last year [25] - The average speed of 3000 + container ships was 14.741 knots, a decrease of 0.088 knots from the previous day, and 14.924 knots in the same period last year [25] - The average speed of 1000 + container ships was 13.291 knots, an increase of 0.068 knots from the previous day, and 13.437 knots in the same period last year [25] - The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage was 20, an increase of 1 from the previous day, and 7 in the same period last year [25]
集装箱产业风险管理日报-20250926
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 11:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) continued its oscillating trend as expected. By the close, the prices of EC contracts showed mixed results. From the changes in the positions of the top 20 institutional investors on the exchange, the long positions of the EC2510 contract decreased by 1,523 lots to 18,659 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,060 lots to 19,737 lots. The trading volume decreased by 16,778 lots to 26,471 lots (bilateral). As previously expected, some investors gradually closed their positions approaching the National Day holiday [3]. - The positive impact from the rebound in spot cabin quotes has weakened, with no significant change in European Line spot cabin quotes today, making the impact neutral. Trump's additional tariffs on certain specific commodities brought a slight negative impact from a macro - sentiment perspective. In the remaining two trading days next week, attention should still be paid to the risks brought by pre - holiday capital fluctuations. The latest SCFI European Line dropped below $1,000/TEU, which may bring certain negative factors to the market. In the short term, the futures price is more likely to continue to oscillate or oscillate downward; the 12 - contract can continue to focus on low - buying opportunities, and overall, it is mainly advisable to wait and see or conduct intraday short - selling [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Advice - For position management, if one has already obtained positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and is worried about the decline in freight rates (long spot exposure), to prevent losses, one can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling direction and a recommended entry range of 1,250 - 1,350 [2]. - For cost management, if shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, and they hope to book cabins according to order situations (short spot exposure), to prevent the increase in transportation costs due to rising freight rates, they can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying direction and a recommended entry range of 1,000 - 1,100 [2]. 利多解读 - Maersk's European Line spot cabin quotes for mid - October stopped falling and rebounded significantly, and in the following two weeks, MSC's European Line spot cabin quotes also followed with a slight rebound [4]. 利空解读 - On September 25, Eastern Time, US President Trump announced on social media that starting from October 1, a batch of imported goods would be subject to additional tariffs, including brand drugs, heavy trucks, kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks and related building materials, and upholstered furniture. Specifically, "any brand or patented drugs" entering the country will be subject to a 100% tariff, but companies building pharmaceutical factories in the US will be exempted. The US will also impose a 25% tariff on all imported heavy trucks, a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks and related building materials, and a 30% tariff on imported upholstered furniture [5]. EC Basis Daily Changes - On September 26, 2025, the basis of EC2510 was 115.92 points, with a daily increase of 34.00 points and a weekly decrease of 88.50 points; the basis of EC2512 was - 522.08 points, with a daily increase of 6.10 points and a weekly decrease of 147.00 points; the basis of EC2602 was - 430.08 points, with a daily increase of 11.20 points and a weekly decrease of 122.50 points; the basis of EC2604 was - 13.68 points, with a daily increase of 16.50 points and a weekly decrease of 18.60 points; the basis of EC2606 was - 228.58 points, with a daily decrease of 1.20 points and a weekly decrease of 229.72 points; the basis of EC2608 was - 362.28 points, with a daily increase of 10.80 points and a weekly decrease of 207.62 points [6][7]. EC Price and Spread - On September 26, 2025, the closing price of EC2510 was 1,139.0 points, with a daily increase of 5.26% and a weekly increase of 6.07%; the closing price of EC2512 was 1,777.0 points, with a daily increase of 5.10% and a weekly increase of 8.38%; the closing price of EC2602 was 1,685.0 points, with a daily increase of 6.81% and a weekly increase of 8.31%; the closing price of EC2604 was 1,268.6 points, with a daily increase of 2.21% and a weekly increase of 2.38%; the closing price of EC2606 was 1,483.5 points, with a daily increase of 2.56% and a weekly increase of 1.98%; the closing price of EC2608 was 1,617.2 points, with a daily increase of 2.29% and a weekly increase of 1.07% [7]. - Regarding price spreads, EC2510 - 2602 was - 523.2 points, with a daily decrease of 49.5 points and a weekly decrease of 63 points; EC2602 - 2606 was 213.9 points, with a daily increase of 71.1 points and a weekly increase of 101.3 points; EC2606 - 2510 was 309.3 points, with a daily decrease of 21.6 points and a weekly decrease of 38.3 points; EC2510 - 2512 was - 610.1 points, with a daily decrease of 28.0 points and a weekly decrease of 70.7 points; EC2512 - 2602 was 86.9 points, with a daily decrease of 21.5 points and a weekly decrease of 14.8 points; EC2602 - 2604 was 411.1 points, with a daily increase of 84 points and a weekly increase of 100.2 points [7]. Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes (CY - CY, Shanghai - Rotterdam) - On October 15, for Maersk's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1,139, a $5 increase from the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1,900, a $10 increase from the previous period. On October 17, the total quote for 20GP was $1,085, a $5 increase from the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1,810, a $10 increase from the previous period [9]. Global Freight Rate Index - The latest value of SCFIS for the European Line was 1,254.92 points, a decrease of 185.32 points (- 12.87%) from the previous value; the latest value of SCFIS for the US West Line was 1,193.64 points, a decrease of 156.2 points (- 11.57%) from the previous value; the latest value of SCFI for the European Line was $971/TEU, a decrease of $81 (- 7.70%) from the previous value; the latest value of SCFI for the US West Line was $1,460/FEU, a decrease of $176 (- 10.76%) from the previous value; the latest value of XSI for the European Line was $1,874/FEU, a decrease of $42 (- 2.19%) from the previous value; the latest value of XSI for the US West Line was $1,844/FEU, a decrease of $27 (- 1.4%) from the previous value; the latest value of the FBX Composite Freight Rate Index was $1,863/FEU, a decrease of $2 (- 0.11%) from the previous value [10]. Global Major Port Waiting Times - On September 25, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 2.079 days, an increase of 0.306 days from the previous day and 0.757 days from the same period last year; at Shanghai Port, it was 1.358 days, an increase of 0.068 days from the previous day and a decrease of 0.282 days from the same period last year; at Yantian Port, it was 0.638 days, an increase of 0.178 days from the previous day and a decrease of 0.204 days from the same period last year; at Singapore Port, it was 2.013 days, an increase of 0.846 days from the previous day and 1.411 days from the same period last year; at Jakarta Port, it was 0.924 days, a decrease of 0.174 days from the previous day and 0.863 days from the same period last year; at Long Beach Port, it was 1.935 days, a decrease of 0.344 days from the previous day and 0.337 days from the same period last year; at Savannah Port, it was 2.241 days, an increase of 0.763 days from the previous day and 0.892 days from the same period last year [15]. Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage - On September 25, 2025, the speed of container ships with a capacity of over 8,000 was 15.398 knots, a decrease of 0.03 knots from the previous day and 0.365 knots from the same period last year; the speed of container ships with a capacity of over 3,000 was 14.567 knots, an increase of 0.034 knots from the previous day and a decrease of 0.564 knots from the same period last year; the speed of container ships with a capacity of over 1,000 was 13.228 knots, a decrease of 0.074 knots from the previous day and 0.217 knots from the same period last year. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage was 32, an increase of 17 from the previous day and 21 from the same period last year [24].
集装箱产业风险管理日报-20250925
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 10:44
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Today, the futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) opened higher and fluctuated. As of the close, the prices of all EC contracts rebounded to varying degrees. Some investors gradually closed their positions as the National Day holiday approached. The futures price is likely to continue its oscillating trend in the short term. For the 12 - contract, investors can continue to look for low - buying opportunities and mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach or intraday short - term operations [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy - For those with full shipping capacity or poor booking volume and worried about falling freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1250 - 1350 to lock in profits [2]. - For those who want to book cabins according to orders and prevent rising freight rates from increasing transportation costs, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1000 - 1100 to determine booking costs in advance [2]. Core Contradiction - As of the close, EC contract prices rebounded. The long positions of the EC2510 contract decreased by 2590 lots to 20182 lots, the short positions decreased by 1924 lots to 21185 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 8470 lots to 44801 lots (bilateral). The rise in the spot cabin quotation and the closing of positions by some short - position investors led to the rebound in the futures price valuation. Attention should be paid to the risk of capital fluctuations before the holiday this week [3]. 利多解读 - Maersk's spot cabin quotation for the European Line in mid - October stopped falling and rebounded significantly, and MSC's quotation for the European Line also rebounded slightly in the following two weeks [4]. 利空解读 - On September 24, local time, the Trump administration of the United States announced the implementation of a trade agreement with the EU, imposing a 15% tariff on EU - imported automobiles and auto products starting from August 1. There are also tariff exemptions for certain drug compounds, aircraft parts, and other imported goods. The daily change in the EC basis shows a decline in most contracts [5]. EC Price and Spread - On September 25, 2025, the closing prices of EC contracts showed different degrees of increase, with EC2510 up 5.26% daily and 6.07% weekly, EC2512 up 5.10% daily and 8.38% weekly, etc. The price spreads between different contracts also changed [6]. Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotation - On October 17, Maersk's 20GP and 40GP opening quotations from Shanghai to Rotterdam rebounded compared with the previous week. In the following two weeks, MSC's 20GP and 40GP total quotations also rebounded slightly. However, CMA CGM's 20GP and 40GP total quotations from Shanghai to Rotterdam decreased compared with the same period [8]. Global Freight Rate Index - Various global freight rate indexes showed a downward trend, such as the SCFIS European Line down 12.87% to 1254.92 points, the SCFIS US West Line down 11.57% to 1193.64 points, etc. [9]. Global Major Port Waiting Time - The waiting times of major ports changed on September 24 compared with September 23. For example, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.706 days to 1.773 days, while the waiting time at Singapore Port increased by 0.633 days to 1.167 days [14]. Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Ports - The speeds of different types of container ships changed on September 24 compared with September 23. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor decreased by 1 to 15 [23].
集装箱产业风险管理日报-20250924
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 02:45
集装箱产业风险管理日报 2025/09/23 俞俊臣(投资咨询证号:Z0021065) 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 EC风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位,但运力偏饱满,或订舱货量不佳,旺季不 | 旺,担心运价下跌 | 多 | 为防止损失,可根据企业舱位,做空集运指数期货来 锁定利润 | EC2510 | 卖出 | 1100~1200 | | 成本管理 船司空班力度加大,或即将进入市场旺季,希望根据订单 | | 空 | 为防止运价上涨而增加运输成本,可以在当前买入集 | EC2510 | 买入 | 900~1000 | | 情况进行订舱 | | | 运指数期货,以提前确定订舱成本 | | | | | source: 南华期货 | | | | | | | 【核心矛盾】 今日集运指数(欧线)期货(EC)价格先回落,后震荡略有上行。 截至收盘,EC各合约价格都有不同 程度回落。从交易所 ...
集装箱产业风险管理日报-20250922
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 10:57
集装箱产业风险管理日报 2025/09/22 俞俊臣(投资咨询证号:Z0021065) 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 EC风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位,但运力偏饱满,或订舱货量不佳,旺季不 | 旺,担心运价下跌 | 多 | 为防止损失,可根据企业舱位,做空集运指数期货来 锁定利润 | EC2510 | 卖出 | 1100~1200 | | 成本管理 船司空班力度加大,或即将进入市场旺季,希望根据订单 | 情况进行订舱 | 空 | 为防止运价上涨而增加运输成本,可以在当前买入集 运指数期货,以提前确定订舱成本 | EC2510 | 买入 | 900~1000 | | source: 南华期货 | | | | | | | 【核心矛盾】 今日集运指数(欧线)期货(EC)价格高开震荡。 截至收盘,EC各合约价格都有不同程度回升。从交 易所排名前20大机构持仓增减去看,EC2510合约 ...
集装箱产业风险管理日报-20250919
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 02:57
EC风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位,但运力偏饱满,或订舱货量不佳,旺季不 | 旺,担心运价下跌 | 多 | 为防止损失,可根据企业舱位,做空集运指数期货来 锁定利润 | EC2510 | 卖出 | 1250~1350 | | 成本管理 船司空班力度加大,或即将进入市场旺季,希望根据订单 | 情况进行订舱 | 空 | 为防止运价上涨而增加运输成本,可以在当前买入集 运指数期货,以提前确定订舱成本 | EC2510 | 买入 | 1000~1100 | | source: 南华期货 | | | | | | | 【核心矛盾】 今日集运指数(欧线)期货(EC)价格震荡略偏弱。 截至收盘,EC各合约价格都有不同程度回落。从 交易所排名前20大机构持仓增减去看,EC2510合约多头减仓1351手至26470手,空头减仓1337手至27460 手,交易量减少23795手至23360手(双边)。 如此前预期,近月合约较前期 ...
集装箱产业风险管理日报-20250917
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 10:27
Report Information - Report Title: Container Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 16, 2025 - Analyst: Yu Junchen [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The container shipping index (European line) futures opened higher and fluctuated, with a decline near the close. Except for EC2510, all other contract prices rose to varying degrees. In the short term, the near - month contract futures prices are likely to fluctuate and decline, and high - short opportunities should be monitored [3]. EC Risk Management Strategy Position Management - For those with existing positions but full capacity or poor booking volume, worried about falling freight rates (long spot exposure), it is recommended to short container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits at an entry range of 1250 - 1350 [2]. Cost Management - For those facing increased blank sailings by shipping companies or approaching the peak season, and wanting to book cabins based on orders (short spot exposure), it is recommended to buy container shipping index futures (EC2510) at an entry range of 1000 - 1100 to lock in booking costs in advance [2]. Market Analysis Core Contradiction - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) were affected by factors such as reaching short - term lows, sentiment, and the commodity market. The spot cabin quotes (except Maersk) were basically stable, but Maersk's European line spot cabin quotes continued to decline, and the cargo volume in the container shipping market was still relatively insufficient [3]. Long - Bias Interpretation - On September 14, Hamas suspended negotiations on a cease - fire and the exchange of detainees in the Gaza Strip with Israel [4]. Short - Bias Interpretation - Maersk's new weekly European line spot cabin quotes continued to decline, with the 20 - foot container price falling below $900. The basis of EC contracts showed different degrees of decline [5]. Price and Spread Data EC Contracts - On September 16, 2025, EC2510 closed at 1169.7, up 0.57% daily and down 7.80% weekly; EC2512 closed at 1673.8, up 1.06% daily and down 0.54% weekly; EC2602 closed at 1572.1, up 3.64% daily and 2.93% weekly; EC2604 closed at 1283.7, up 2.69% daily and 2.15% weekly; EC2606 closed at 1471.6, up 2.77% daily and 2.59% weekly; EC2608 closed at 1625.9, up 1.84% daily and 1.11% weekly [5][6]. Price Spreads - The price spreads between different EC contracts also showed corresponding changes, such as EC2510 - 2602 being - 402.4, down 48.6 daily and 143.7 weekly [5]. Shipping Quotes Maersk Quotes - For Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam routes, the 20GP and 40GP quotes showed different trends. For example, on October 1, the 20GP opening quote was $882, down $99 from the previous week, and the 40GP opening quote was $1470, down $157 from the previous week [8]. Global Freight Index - SCFIS: European line decreased by 8.06% to 1440.24 points; SCFIS: US - West line increased by 37.67% to 1349.84 points; SCFI: European line decreased by 12.24% to $1154/TEU; SCFI: US - West line increased by 8.27% to $2370/FEU; XSI: European line decreased by 5.75% to $2083/FEU; XSI: US - West line increased by 10.0% to $2487/FEU; FBX composite freight index decreased by 2.82% to $1967/FEU [9]. Port Data Global Port Waiting Time - The waiting times at ports such as Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Yantian showed different changes on September 15 compared to September 14. For example, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.251 days to 1.401 days [14]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ships - The speeds of 8000 +, 3000 +, and 1000 + container ships decreased slightly on September 15 compared to September 14, and the number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor remained at 10 [22].