2026年1月6日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) SCFIS持续上行,现货运价维持上涨,盘面偏强震荡,关注二月运价走势。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 1月5日 | 1月2日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1795.83点，较上期上涨3.1% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 1296.7点, 较上期上涨10.40% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1250.12点, 较上期下跌3.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1258.31点, 较上期上涨9.96% | | 12月26日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1743.56点, 较上期上涨38.94% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1656.32点，较上期上涨103.4点 | 12月26日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格1690USD/TEU,较上期上涨10.24% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1124.73点, 较上期上涨0.6% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SC ...

| | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | 2025/12/24 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 数据指标 最新 | 环比 | | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 | 1795.800 -29.8↓ EC次主力收盘价 1165 | | | | -0.80↓ | | 期货盘面 | EC2602-EC2604价差 630.80 -17.80↓ EC2602-EC2606价差 476.80 | | | | +1.90↑ | | EC合约基差 | | | -206.60 +10.80↑ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 34316 -688↓ | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1589.20 78.64↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 962.10 | | | | 37.74↑ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | 1552.92 46.46↑ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） 1,227.97 | | | | 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 | CCFI（综合指数）（周） 1124.73 6.6 ...

美国11月标普全球服务业PM1初值55，预期54.6，前值54.8。 美国11月标普全球综合PMI初值54.8，为连续第二个月上涨，预期54.6，前值54.6, 中美关税问题仍以延期的形式作为短期的解决方案,运价走势的 短期策略: 主力合约回撤反弹,远月合约波动放缓,风险偏好者已 逻辑还是回归传统季节性和红海何时复航的问题上,目前现货价 建议主力合约轻仓试多,建议全部止盈,不建议继续补仓,不建议 格小幅下降。综上述,我们认为,关税问题已经呈现边际化效 扛单,设置好止损。 应,目前核心还是现货运价的走向,主力合约已经出现季节性反 套利策略:国际局势动荡背景下,各合约仍保持季节性逻辑,波动 弹,建议轻仓参与或观望。 较大,建议暂时观望或轻仓尝试。 长期策略:各合约已建议冲高止盈,等待回调企稳后,在判断后续 12月12日主力合约2602收盘1677.8, 涨幅为0.32%, 成交量 同向 2.70万手,持仓量3.17万手,较上日增手41手。 跌涨停板:2508-2606合约调整为18%。 或因马士基报告传递出货量较为乐观，市场多头情绪较强， 载 面 我司保证金:2508-2606合约调整为28%。 偏强震荡,远月合 ...

2025年12月5日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 或对2月运价存在乐观情绪，盘面震荡上行，已建议轻仓试多，关注春节前出货行情，运价并无明显波动。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 11月28日 12月1日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(综合指数) 972.63点, 较上期上涨2.77% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1483.65点, 较上期下跌9.5% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1024.64点, 较上期上涨7.67% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 948.77点, 较上期下跌14.4% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 881.66点, 较上期下跌7.77% 11月28日 11月28日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1403.13点,较上期上涨9.57点 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1121.80点, 较上期下跌0.1% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格1404USD/TEU,较上期上涨2.71% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(欧洲航线) 1449.34点,较上期上涨1.1% 上海出口集装箱运价指数 ...

2025年12月5日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 或对2月运价存在乐观情绪，盘面震荡上行，已建议轻仓试多，关注春节前出货行情，运价并无明显波动。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 11月28日 12月1日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(综合指数) 972.63点, 较上期上涨2.77% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1483.65点, 较上期下跌9.5% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1024.64点, 较上期上涨7.67% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 948.77点, 较上期下跌14.4% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 881.66点, 较上期下跌7.77% 11月28日 11月28日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1403.13点,较上期上涨9.57点 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1121.80点, 较上期下跌0.1% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格1404USD/TEU,较上期上涨2.71% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(欧洲航线) 1449.34点,较上期上涨1.1% 上海出口集装箱运价指数 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Affected by pessimistic sentiment, the market continued to decline significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, and there was no obvious fluctuation in freight rates [1] - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect. Currently, the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] - Pessimistic sentiment persists, spot freight rates are falling, the market has plunged, trading volume has increased, and the long - short game is fierce. The market is oscillating at a low level. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Summary by Related Content Freight Index Changes - On November 24, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 946.44 points, a decrease of 5.33% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 1639.37 points, an increase of 20.7% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 951.65 points, a decrease of 2.83% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1107.85 points, a decrease of 10.5% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 955.93 points, a decrease of 9.17% from the previous period [2] - On November 21, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1393.56 points, a decrease of 57.82 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1122.79 points, an increase of 2.6% from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1367 USD/TEU, a decrease of 3.53% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1432.96 points, an increase of 2.1% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1645 USD/FEU, a decrease of 9.76% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 850.96 points, an increase of 0.6% from the previous period [2] PMI Data - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [3] - The initial value of the eurozone's October manufacturing PMI was 45.9, expected to be 45.1, and the previous value was 45; the initial value of the service PMI was 51.2, expected to be 51.5, and the previous value was 51.4; the initial value of the composite PMI was 49.7, expected to be 49.7, and the previous value was 49.6; the Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2 in the previous period and the predicted value was - 8.5 [2] - The initial value of the US October S&P Global service PMI was 55.2, expected to be 53.5, and the previous value was 54.2; the initial value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2, expected to be 52; the initial value of the composite PMI was 54.8, expected to be 53.1, and the previous value was 53.9 [3] Contract Information - On November 26, the main contract 2602 closed at 1387.4, a decline of 7.62%, with a trading volume of 38,100 lots and an open interest of 44,100 lots, a decrease of 4222 lots from the previous day [3] Strategy Suggestions - Short - term strategy: The main contract has retraced, and the far - month contracts are relatively strong. Risk - preferring investors are recommended to try to go long lightly in the 1550 - 1600 range of the EC2602 contract. After the market plunges, do not recommend additional positions or holding losses. Set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4] Other Information - The Sino - US tariff issue is still resolved in the form of an extension in the short term. The logic of the freight rate trend still returns to the traditional seasonality and the issue of when the Red Sea will resume navigation. Currently, the spot price has decreased slightly [3] - On November 25, the Egyptian Intelligence Bureau chief and the Qatari Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister held talks in Cairo on the Gaza cease - fire issue and agreed to continue to strengthen cooperation and coordination with the US to ensure the maintenance of the Gaza cease - fire and implement the second phase of the cease - fire agreement [5] - The CEO of Maersk said that he was encouraged by the Gaza peace process, which would help establish freedom of navigation in the Mandeb Strait and restore normal trade routes [5]

Core Insights - The Drewry Asia Container Freight Index (IACI) increased by 24% in the first half of November, reaching $630 per FEU [1] - Seasonal demand has declined post the November holiday, prompting shipping companies to implement measures such as sailing suspensions to boost freight rates [1] - Freight rate performance is varied, with rates from Shanghai to Jakarta and Linchaban reaching their highest levels since July, while rates from Shanghai to Manila have fallen to historical lows [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - SCFIS has risen significantly, but some long - position holders have taken profits and left the market, leading to a weak and volatile market, which is in line with the daily report's rebound expectation. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Indexes - **SCFIS**: On October 27, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1312.71 points, up 15.1% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1107.32 points, up 28.2% from the previous period [3]. - **SCFI**: On October 24, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1403.46 points, up 93.14 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European line was 1246 USD/TEU, up 8.8% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 2153 USD/FEU, up 11.2% from the previous period [4]. - **NCFI**: On October 24, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 977.21 points, up 2.17% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 822.3 points, up 2.38% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1293.75 points, up 3.13% from the previous period [5]. - **CCFI**: On October 24, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 992.74 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1293.12 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 736.23 points, up 1.5% from the previous period [5]. 3.2 Economic Data - **Eurozone**: In September, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary services PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The preliminary composite PMI was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [6]. - **China**: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing prosperity. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, showing that the overall expansion of enterprise production and operation activities has accelerated [6]. - **US**: In September, the preliminary S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary services PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [6]. 3.3 Market Strategy - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contracts are strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors have been advised to try to build positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - loss [7]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [7]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It has been recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [7]. 3.4 Market Conditions - On October 27, the main contract 2512 closed at 1775.0, with a decline of 2.79%, a trading volume of 27,700 lots, and an open interest of 28,000 lots, a decrease of 2254 lots from the previous day [7]. - Sino - US trade shows signs of easing, but the overall long - position sentiment has subsided. Coupled with some long - position holders taking profits and leaving the market, the market is weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [7]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bulk market is generally warm, but liner companies have slightly lowered freight rates. The market has fluctuated significantly recently, and it is not recommended to increase positions. Stop - loss should be set [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Market Indexes and Economic Data - On August 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1130.12 points, down 12.0%. On August 1, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 1087.66 points, down 2.06%; NCFI (European route) was 1372.67 points, down 3.53%; NCFI (US West route) was 1114.45 points, down 0.54% [3]. - On August 1, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI published price was 1550.74 points, down 41.85 points from the previous period; SCFI European route price was 2051 USD/TEU, down 1.86%; SCFI US West route was 2021 USD/FEU, down 2.23%. The China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1232.29 points, down 2.3%; CCFI (European route) was 1789.50 points, up 0.1%; CCFI (US West route) was 876.57 points, down 0.5% [3]. - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the services PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7; the composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The July SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [3]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [4]. Policy and Market Situation - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range is set, with a 25% small price increase to test the market, and the market rebounded slightly [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may mainly rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take light positions below 1300 in the 2510 contract (already with a profit margin of over 300 points) and take partial profits. For the EC2512 contract, light - position short - selling has been recommended, and profit - taking is advised. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international situation turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: For each contract, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent trend [5]. Contract Information - On August 6, the main contract 2510 closed at 1420.1, up 0.64%, with a trading volume of 48,600 lots and an open interest of 54,400 lots, an increase of 2253 lots from the previous day [5]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Core Insights - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index for European routes is reported at 2297.86 points as of August 4, 2025, reflecting a decrease of 0.8% compared to the previous period [1] Industry Summary - The index indicates a slight decline in shipping rates for exports from Shanghai to Europe, which may suggest a softening demand or increased capacity in the shipping industry [1]