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【特斯拉(TSLA.O)】2026E全面向AI迈进,Robotaxi率先稳步推进——2025年四季报业绩点评(倪昱婧/邢萍)
光大证券研究· 2026-02-02 23:08
Core Viewpoint - Tesla's overall performance in 2025 showed a decline in revenue and net profit, with total revenue decreasing by 2.9% year-on-year to $94.83 billion and Non-GAAP net profit down by 26.4% to $5.86 billion [4] Group 1: Automotive Business Performance - In Q4 2025, Tesla's global delivery volume decreased by 15.6% year-on-year and 15.9% quarter-on-quarter to 418,000 units, with automotive revenue declining by 10.6% year-on-year and 16.6% quarter-on-quarter to $17.69 billion [5] - The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles was approximately $41,000, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.6% [5] - The automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits, improved by 4.3 percentage points year-on-year and 2.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 17.9%, primarily due to optimization in sales region structure [5] Group 2: Energy Business Performance - In Q4 2025, Tesla's energy storage installation volume increased by 29% year-on-year and 14% quarter-on-quarter to 14.2 GWh, with energy business revenue rising by 25.4% year-on-year and 12.4% quarter-on-quarter to $3.84 billion [5] - The gross margin for the energy business was 28.6%, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.4 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.8 percentage points [5] - The outlook for the energy business remains positive, driven by the launch of Megapack 3, Megablock, and the ramp-up of the Shanghai energy storage factory [5] Group 3: AI Transition and Future Outlook - Tesla is expected to focus on AI transformation across its business segments, with the rollout sequence anticipated to be Robo-series, Unsupervised FSD, and robotics [6] - The Robotaxi fleet has rapidly scaled to 500 vehicles as of January 29, 2026, with plans for the Cybercab to enter mass production in Q2 2026 [6] - The management has indicated that by the end of 2026, Robotaxi services will expand to several major cities in the U.S., supported by Tesla's comprehensive charging, service, and channel network [6]
X @Tesla Owners Silicon Valley
CYBERCAB: TESLA’S ROBOTAXI REVOLUTION IS COMING – THE END OF DRIVING AS WE KNOW ITCybercab is not just another EV—it’s the physical blueprint for the future of transportation: a purpose-built, fully autonomous two-seater robotaxi with no steering wheel, no pedals, inductive charging, and a design optimized for maximum safety, efficiency, and low operating cost.Unveiled in October 2024, production is targeted to begin in 2026.This vehicle is the culmination of billions of miles of FSD data, end-to-end neural ...
Model Y 實錘 AP4.5?!HW4.5 算力暴增50%#Tesla #HW45 #FSD #ModelY #ElonMusk @Tesla @elonmusk
大鱼聊电动· 2026-01-26 07:14
剛提車的 Model Y 車腦標籤 赫然寫著 「AP4.5%」! 這不是假新聞 Fremont 工廠 2025 年底到 2026 年初的車 實錘出現 Hardware 4.5% 了! HW4 已經雙 SoC 很猛 但複雜路況 還是會喘 HW4.5% 直接上 三 SoC! 冗餘拉滿 記憶體頻寬爆衝 greentheonly 挖碼證實 系統更穩 算力估計 飆升 50%! 現在還在兼容 HW4 模式跑 等軟體一解鎖 三核全開 FSD 直接起飛! 就像你電腦 突然多插 一張顯卡 畫面從卡頓 瞬間變絲滑 這波升級先從 美國本土 Performance 版開始 上海柏林 還在憋大招 FSD 真的 要無敵了嗎? 你怎麼看?. ...
【Tesla每日快訊】 HW4.5 來襲,自动驾驶過渡神器,AI5 前先虐對手?🔥Tesla炸裂一週/波蘭防中國 EV 間諜(2026/1/26-1)
大鱼聊电动· 2026-01-26 06:48
大家好我是大魚 你能想像嗎? 剛出廠的 2026年Model Y Performance 手套箱後的 車腦標籤 赫然寫著「AP4.5%」 這說明Tesla 正悄無聲息地 把Autopilot電腦 從HW4升級 到HW4.5% 三顆SoC加持 計算力直接 暴增約50% 專為FSD更複雜的 場景備足火力 這不是謠言 多位Fremont 新車主實拍確認 而且零件目錄 早有2300美元 的Hardware 4.5% 條目 現在 它正低調的 在美國本土 率先登場 FSD穩定性 和極限表現 將獲得明顯躍升 大家不要錯過 今天的精彩內容 OK let‘s go 第一部分 HW4.5% 來襲 根據多位車主 在 X 平台和 Reddit 的分享 他們提到了 剛交付的Fremont 工廠生產的Model Y 車腦標籤上 清清楚楚寫著 “AP4.5%” 這不是空穴來風 Tesla 的 零件目錄裡早就 出現 CAR COMPUTER - HARDWARE 4.5% 的條目 價格定在 2300 USD 簡單說 這是Tesla 對 Autopilot電腦的 迭代升級 主要針對 FSD的計算需求 為啥說這是升級? HW4是雙 SoC 設計 ...
【Tesla每日快訊】 股東問題直擊痛點!投資者逼問Robotaxi何時賺錢?🔥Cybercab後視鏡清洗器/Optimus玩偶(2026/1/21-2)
大鱼聊电动· 2026-01-21 10:54
大家好我是大魚 Tesla股東 最瘋狂的提問 票數直接炸裂 Robotaxi 到底啥時能 真正無人 上路賺錢? Cybercab和 Optimus的 生產會不會 又卡關? 更狠的問題是 SpaceX IPO 會不會給我們 這些死忠股東 優先分一杯羹? 這些問題 不是閒聊 而是我們對 馬斯克下一個 萬億帝國的 終極檢驗 大家不要錯過 今天的精彩內容 OK let‘s go 第一部分 Tesla股東問題 直擊痛點! 特斯拉2025年 Q4財報問答會 將於1月28日 下午4: 30舉行 現在正在接受 有關Q4財報的 問題提問 X上大家都在聊 票數最高的 幾個問題 簡直戳中了 我們這些 老粉的心啊 Robotaxi 啥時能無人上路? SpaceX IPO 會不會給 我們優先權? Cybercab 和Optimus 的生產到底咋樣? 這些問題 不光是好奇 更是我們對 Tesla未來 賭注的檢視 下面咱們就 一塊兒聊聊 這些事實和預測 先說說大家 最關心的 Robotaxi和FSD吧 這兩個問題 票數最高 一個問部署的瓶頸 一個問啥時能 100%無人駕駛 事實上 Tesla的FSD 已經在Austin 公共道路上 測試無 ...
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) Stock Price Prediction and Forecast 2026-2030 (Jan 8)
247Wallst· 2026-01-08 12:55
Core Viewpoint - Tesla Inc. has experienced a decline in sales for the second consecutive year, with its share price retreating 4.0% in the past week, while being overtaken by BYD as the world's largest seller of fully electric vehicles. Despite this, Tesla's stock remains 46.8% higher than six months ago, outperforming the S&P 500 during that period [1]. Financial Performance - Tesla's stock is only 9.4% higher than a year ago, underperforming the Nasdaq. However, since its IPO on June 29, 2010, the stock has seen a meteoric rise of 27,050% [2]. - Tesla's revenues have shown significant growth over the years, with projected revenues for 2023 at $96.773 billion and a net income of $14.997 billion. The company has seen a steady increase in revenues from $4.046 billion in 2015 to $81.462 billion in 2022 [6]. Key Drivers for Performance - Improved Margins: Tesla has been cutting manufacturing costs and expanding margins, leading to strong revenue and net income gains since 2020. The establishment of gigafactories in Shanghai and Berlin is expected to reduce export-related costs and increase sales [7]. - R&D Advancements: Tesla is leading in the development of Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology and robotaxi initiatives, with plans to deploy 500 robotaxis in Austin and 1,000 in Silicon Valley by year-end [8]. - Diversified Business Segments: Tesla's growth in its Supercharger, energy, and battery businesses distinguishes it from its EV peers, with plans for a new Optimus robot production line in Fremont, California [9]. Stock Forecast - Wall Street's consensus 12-month price target for Tesla is $401.40 per share, with some analysts maintaining Buy-equivalent ratings based on long-term outlooks. The highest price target is set at $600 by Wedbush [10]. - The projected revenue growth for Tesla is expected to climb from $112.09 billion in 2025 to $297.43 billion in 2030, with normalized EPS growth from $1.91 in 2025 to $11.24 in 2030. The year-end 2026 price target is $461.73, suggesting a 7% upside potential in the next 12 months [11].
A股五张图:26年这么猛吗?
Xuan Gu Bao· 2026-01-06 10:33
Market Overview - On the second trading day of the new year, the market showed strong performance with significant volume increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising by 1.5%, 1.4%, and 0.75% respectively, and over 4,100 stocks gaining while more than 1,200 stocks declined [4] - The total trading volume exceeded 2.8 trillion yuan, indicating heightened market activity [4] Autonomous Driving Sector - The autonomous driving sector experienced a strong rally, with stocks like Suoling Co., Zhejiang Shibao, and others hitting the daily limit, leading to an overall increase of 2.38% in the sector [7] - The surge was catalyzed by NVIDIA's announcement at CES regarding the release of the open-source AI model and tools, which are aimed at accelerating the development of next-generation safe autonomous driving technologies [7][8] - The new model, Alpamayo-R1, is noted for its high interpretability, addressing the "black box" issue of traditional algorithms, which is crucial for the implementation of Level 4 autonomous driving [8] Financial Sector - The financial sector showed robust performance with significant gains across various stocks, including Huayin Securities and Huasheng Securities, which hit the daily limit [11] - The sector saw increases of 3.73% for brokerage firms, 3.82% for insurance, and 2.02% for financial technology companies, driven by a notable increase in trading volume and a bullish market sentiment [11] - The Shanghai Composite Index managed to stay above the 4,000-point mark, marking a significant milestone with a record 13 consecutive days of gains [11] HeSai Technology - HeSai Technology was selected by NVIDIA as a laser radar partner for the "NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Hyperion 10 platform," leading to a stock price increase of 5.9% [12] - The stock's performance was somewhat muted due to its exclusion from the Hong Kong Stock Connect, limiting A-share investor participation [12] KeLan Software - KeLan Software opened 4% higher but experienced a decline before a significant rally in the afternoon, closing up 5.38% [14] - The stock's initial rise was attributed to its association with commercial aerospace, while the afternoon surge was linked to its connection with brain-computer interface concepts, highlighting its position in the financial technology sector [14]
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) Stock Price Prediction and Forecast 2026-2030 (Jan 1)
247Wallst· 2026-01-01 13:20
Core Insights - Tesla Inc.'s share price has decreased by 6.4% in the past week due to warnings of a significant drop in fourth-quarter deliveries and a supplier contract restatement indicating declining demand for the Cybertruck, although the stock remains 43.1% higher than six months ago [1] - The stock is only 8.9% higher than a year ago, underperforming the Nasdaq, but has seen a remarkable increase of 28,500% since its IPO in June 2010 [2] - Investors are focused on Tesla's future performance over the next one, five, and ten years, with a consensus that long-term projections are more relevant than short-term forecasts [3] Tesla's Recent Success - Tesla has achieved revenue and earnings growth even in high-interest-rate environments, with its Model S and Model 3 being top-selling electric vehicles in their respective years [4] - The company has seen revenue growth from its energy storage business and charging station network [5] Financial Performance - Tesla's revenue and net income have shown significant growth over the years, with revenues increasing from $4.046 billion in 2015 to $96.773 billion in 2023, and net income rising from $888.7 million in 2015 to $14.997 billion in 2023 [6] Key Drivers for Performance - Improved margins due to cost-cutting measures and the establishment of gigafactories in Shanghai and Berlin are expected to enhance sales and reduce export-related costs [7] - Research and development in Full Self-Driving (FSD) and robotaxi technologies position Tesla ahead of competitors, with plans for 500 robotaxis in Austin and 1,000 in Silicon Valley by year-end [8] - Tesla's diversified business segments, including Supercharger, energy, and battery businesses, contribute to its competitive edge [9] - Plans for a large Optimus robot production line in Fremont, California, indicate further expansion [10] Stock Forecast - Wall Street's consensus 12-month price target for Tesla is $399.15 per share, which is 12.2% lower than the recent closing price, with several firms maintaining Buy-equivalent ratings [11] - A forecast through 2030 suggests revenue growth from $112.09 billion in 2025 to $297.43 billion in 2030, with normalized EPS growth projected from $1.91 in 2025 to $11.24 in 2030 [12]
【Tesla每日快訊】 德拉瓦法院認錯?馬斯克薪酬翻盤!特斯拉大勝,股東血汗錢終於保住?🔥華爾街終於醒了!(2025/12/20)
大鱼聊电动· 2025-12-20 06:44
大家好我是大鱼 想像一下 一个CEO 六年来不拿 一分钱薪水 却带领公司 市值从500亿 暴冲到万亿级 让股东财富 翻倍成长 如今德拉瓦 最高法院一致裁定 取消他的奖励 太不公平 这1400亿美元 的薪酬计划 终于全面复活! 这到底是对 马斯克价值的肯定 还是公司治理 的转折点? 大家不要错过 今天的精彩内容 OK let's go 特斯拉的股票 周五收盘是481.2% 全天下跌了 2.17%美元 跌幅是0.45% 成交量是 8598万股 最近华尔街 这些分析师 终于坐不住了 一个接一个 调高Tesla的 目标价 就这几天 Mizuho直接 把目标价从 475拉到530 Deutsche Bank 从470调到500 还维持买入评级 Truist也从406 上修到444 虽然还是Hold 但也算给面子了 说真的 看到这些数字 我第一反应是 越来越多人 能看懂Tesla了 他们都把焦点 放在FSD的进步上 尤其是Robotaxi 这块大饼 Mizuho的 分析师直说 FSD如果继续改善 就能加速在 Austin和San Francisco 扩大无人车队 甚至有可能 提前把那个 安全陪驾员给踢掉 他们还拿 Way ...
【Tesla每日快訊】 英國狂賣4萬輛Tesla,FSD歐洲卻還在等?!🔥固態電池大翻車/中國EV價格戰要涼?(2025/12/19-2)
大鱼聊电动· 2025-12-19 09:45
大家好我是大鱼 2025年至今 Tesla在英国 狂卖超4万辆 市占近10% 力压 Volkswagen! Model Y与3 横扫EV冠亚军 纯靠产品实力 不需补贴 或者价格战 但欧洲大陆 却是另一番景象 FSD Supervised 2026年2月荷兰首试 成败将决定 Tesla能否 席卷全欧洲 否则将继续 被监管卡住 Tesla欧洲命运 即将揭晓 大家不要错过 今天的精彩内容 OK let's go 第一部分: Tesla英国 狂卖4万辆 英国人现在买电动车 好像眼睛 只盯着Tesla! 看看这数据 2025年到现在 Tesla在英国 卖了42270辆 市占率直接 冲到9.6% 稳稳压过 Volkswagen的8% 最猛的是Model Y 卖了18890辆 Model 3紧跟在后 16361辆 直接包办 EV销售冠亚军 第三名的 Audi Q4 e-tron 才1万多辆 差远了 这什么概念? 英国人买电动车 两台里面 就有一台可能 是Tesla的车型 说真的 看到英国 这销售数字 我第一反应 就是很爽 Tesla在 英国不靠补贴 不搞价格战 纯粹靠产品力 就把对手甩开 Model Y和3 这对兄弟档 一 ...