海通国际发布研报称，石药集团(01093)的主营业务收入、利润已经触底，2026年有望回到上升周期， 2027年开始受益于肿瘤和代谢创新产品放量，成药收入有望提速。石药集团当前潜在临床里程碑收入达 58亿美元(约人民币406亿元)，有望在未来3-5年陆续增厚公司利润。该行认为首付款和里程碑收入将为 公司带来可持续的经常性收益，并上调了2027年后的授权收入预测。该行使用现金流折现(DCF)模型及 FY27-FY35的现金流进行估值。基于WACC7.9%，永续增长率2.5%(均不变)，对应目标价13.07港元，并 维持"优于大市"评级。 海通国际主要观点如下： 研发能力多次获得认可，该行看好常态化里程碑收入夯实公司基本面 近两年来石药集团实现7笔对外合作交易，涉及首付款总额17.1亿美元，潜在里程碑总额超300亿美元。 公司与全球顶尖药企阿斯利康三度达成合作，彰显石药集团研发平台在全球范围的影响力与价值。该行 认为，加总近60亿美元的潜在研发里程碑将会在未来3-5年陆续增厚石药集团的利润，成为公司常态化 收入的重要组成部分。该行看好石药集团可以持续以销售里程碑和销售净额分成的方式在整个药品生命 周期分享经济效益 ...

智通财经APP获悉，海通国际发布研报称，石药集团(01093)的主营业务收入、利润已经触底，2026年有 望回到上升周期，2027年开始受益于肿瘤和代谢创新产品放量，成药收入有望提速。石药集团当前潜在 临床里程碑收入达58亿美元（约人民币406亿元），有望在未来3-5年陆续增厚公司利润。该行认为首付 款和里程碑收入将为公司带来可持续的经常性收益，并上调了2027年后的授权收入预测。该行使用现金 流折现（DCF）模型及FY27-FY35的现金流进行估值。基于WACC 7.9%，永续增长率2.5%（均不 变），对应目标价13.07港元，并维持"优于大市"评级。 海通国际主要观点如下： 研发能力多次获得认可，该行看好常态化里程碑收入夯实公司基本面 近两年来石药集团实现7笔对外合作交易，涉及首付款总额17.1亿美元，潜在里程碑总额超300亿美元。 公司与全球顶尖药企阿斯利康三度达成合作，彰显石药集团研发平台在全球范围的影响力与价值。该行 认为，加总近60亿美元的潜在研发里程碑将会在未来3-5年陆续增厚石药集团的利润，成为公司常态化 收入的重要组成部分。该行看好石药集团可以持续以销售里程碑和销售净额分成的方式在整个药品 ...

The company’s mRNA flu shot, if approved, could be available for the 2026-27 flu season. https://t.co/xH9YIcja7T ...

WELCOME Welcome back. The Trump administration has revoked a key scientific finding that has laid the foundation for U .S. action to fight climate change, the endangerment finding issued by the Obama administration in 2009 concluded that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases endanger public health and welfare.President Trump, who for years has described climate change as a FORMER PRESIDENT OBAMA CRITICIZED THE REPEAL, WRITING ON SOCIAL MEDIA THAT WITHOUT IT WE WILL BE less safe, less healthy and less ab ...

Core Insights - 2026 is identified as a pivotal year for transformation and output in the global biopharmaceutical industry, with major companies revealing strategic developments at the JMP conference [1] - The industry is experiencing extreme differentiation, with ADC and GLP-1 seen as key growth engines for the next five years, while mRNA, siRNA, and RLT are transitioning from concepts to clinical norms [1][9] - The BD strategies are becoming more precise, with 2025's small-scale acquisitions starting to yield results, and the logic behind mergers and acquisitions in 2026 expected to diversify [1] Hot Track Dynamics: Dual Drivers of Technology Iteration and Indication Expansion - ADC remains a leading player in the oncology sector, with Merck advancing multiple ADC assets through collaboration with Daiichi Sankyo [12] - BeiGene views ADC as a core technology and is actively promoting drug accessibility globally [12] - Eli Lilly has completed several ADC-related transactions to enhance its capabilities in cancer treatment [12] Weight Management Market Transition - The weight management market is shifting from simple weight loss to comprehensive management of metabolic syndrome, with Eli Lilly focusing on AI-driven drug discovery and direct patient engagement [14] - Roche's acquisition of Carmot Therapeutics enhances its pipeline with new metabolic therapies [14] - Sanofi is expanding the indications for its core asset Dupixent and advancing its autoimmune pipeline [14] Key Corporate Strategic Planning: Core Track Deepening and Platform Layout - Eli Lilly's strategy focuses on obesity and AI-driven drug development, with a projected investment of up to $1 billion in collaboration with NVIDIA [15] - Pfizer aims to maximize core transaction value and apply AI across its business chain, targeting a $150 billion market in obesity by 2030 [15] - Amgen is accelerating the integration of biotechnology and AI, with a focus on rare diseases and partnerships in China [16] BD Trends: Core Logic of Track Reinforcement and Ecological Synergy - The pharmaceutical industry is seeing a concentration of mergers and acquisitions in ADC and bispecific antibodies, with major companies acquiring key assets and technology platforms [17] - Big Pharma is shifting from scale expansion to pipeline restructuring to avoid revenue cliffs due to upcoming patent expirations [18] - The focus is on mid-stage assets with immediate Phase 3 potential, which are expected to have a premium advantage over early-stage assets [18] Industry Outlook - The biopharmaceutical industry is entering an "innovation harvest period" from 2026 to 2030, with GLP-1 drugs evolving into comprehensive metabolic management platforms [19] - The market for GLP-1 receptor agonists in China is projected to reach approximately 38.3 billion yuan by 2030 [19] - The commercialization of cutting-edge therapies is approaching a "singularity," with advancements in cell and gene therapies and RNA therapies expected to overcome production and reimbursement challenges [19][20]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Vertex Pharmaceuticals reported nearly $500 million in revenue from the launch of vanzacaftor/tezacaftor/deutivacaftor in the first nine months, indicating a strong start for the product [20][21] - The company expects revenue for Casgevy to exceed $100 million in 2025, showing a steady ramp in patient initiations and infusions [78] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The launch of the acute pain therapy has resulted in over 300,000 prescriptions written, with a significant increase from 10,000 in Q1 to 190,000 in Q3 [7][6] - The company has achieved formulary placement in several large hospitals, exceeding initial expectations [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Vertex has over 170 million covered lives in the US for its new pain medication, with a goal of reaching approximately 300 million [5] - The company is making progress in discussions with Medicare and Medicaid, although there is still work to be done [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Vertex is focusing on expanding its portfolio in renal medicine, with multiple potential medicines in development for conditions like IgA nephropathy and APOL1-mediated kidney disease [70][69] - The company aims to leverage synergies between its renal products to enhance market presence and access [75] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the momentum in prescription numbers and the overall patient experience with the new pain medication [7] - The company is excited about the potential of POVI and its differentiated profile in treating B-cell mediated diseases, indicating a strong pipeline for future growth [53][52] Other Important Information - Vertex is actively engaged in share buyback programs, having repurchased approximately $2 billion worth of shares this year [87] - The company is open to various types of transactions to enhance its portfolio, maintaining high standards for scientific and medical quality [87] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for the new pain medication? - Management highlighted the significant ramp in prescriptions and positive feedback from physicians and payers, indicating strong market acceptance [6][7] Question: How is the company addressing access and reimbursement for Casgevy? - Management noted that access and reimbursement are strong in key markets, including the US and Europe, and are not limiting factors for Casgevy [84] Question: What are the company's plans for future acquisitions or investments? - Management stated that they are open to adding new verticals or enhancing existing ones, with a focus on maintaining flexibility in capital allocation [87]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 17% organic growth excluding COVID for Q2, indicating a strong recovery [5][6] - For the first half of the year, the company achieved mid-teens top-line growth and a 20% increase in orders, leading to an upward revision of full-year guidance by 50 basis points despite a 100 basis point headwind from a specific gene therapy program [7][10] - EBITDA margin is around 19% this year, with a target of 30% in the coming years, expecting 1-2 points of margin improvement annually [67][68] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The monoclonal antibody business is performing well, contributing to overall growth [7] - New modalities accounted for about 17% of total sales in the first half, with gene therapy making up approximately 50% of that segment [14] - Instrument revenues increased by high teens, with orders up over 20%, indicating a recovery in hardware sales [18][20] - Chromatography sales and orders grew over 30%, attributed to a focus on big pharma and the successful switch to OPUS columns [52][53] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The biopharma segment saw revenue and orders increase over 20%, driven by a successful key account management strategy [26][28] - The company anticipates that the Chinese biopharma market will grow faster than other markets, particularly by 2026, due to increased investment and innovation [34][36] - Local competition in China has intensified, with several established companies in filtration and chromatography [37] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to double its business in the midterm, focusing on organic growth with limited acquisitions [77][78] - A specific strategy for the Chinese market is being developed, emphasizing collaboration with local companies [36][39] - The company is committed to innovation, with several new products and technologies expected to drive growth in the coming years [62][63] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about entering a growth cycle for hardware, driven by limited capacity and increasing demand, particularly in Asia [25][24] - The company is not overly concerned about the impact of tariffs, expecting minimal effects on top-line revenue [65][66] - Management believes that pricing pressures from pharma reforms may create opportunities for the company to gain market share [72][74] Other Important Information - The company has $700 million in cash available for potential acquisitions, with a focus on technologies that complement existing workflows [78] - The company is actively looking for opportunities in the current market conditions, which may present assets at more affordable prices [77] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the growth in the biopharma segment? - The biopharma revenue and orders increased over 20%, supported by a key account management strategy that has led to deeper relationships with major pharma companies [26][28] Question: What is the outlook for the Chinese market? - The Chinese biopharma market is expected to grow rapidly, with a need for a tailored strategy that considers local competition and collaboration [34][36] Question: How is the company addressing potential competition in filtration? - The company maintains a strong position in the ATF market, with most pharma companies now using ATF technology, and is confident in its competitive edge [40][41] Question: What is the impact of tariffs on the business? - The impact of tariffs is minimal, with only a couple of million dollars affecting top-line revenue, and the company has adjusted its pricing strategy accordingly [65][66] Question: What is the company's approach to M&A? - The company is actively looking for acquisition opportunities but emphasizes organic growth as the primary focus, with a significant cash reserve available for strategic purchases [77][78]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in its main business, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, indicating a turning point in its operations [5] - The company is expected to achieve substantial revenue growth in the coming years, driven by its innovative business layout and expansion in various segments [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 677 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.42%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 49 million yuan, up 158.97% [5] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 401 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 16.15%, and a net profit of 28 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 468.03% [5] - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 32.45%, an increase of 2.94 percentage points, while the net margin was 7.84%, up 4.34 percentage points [5] Business Segments - The formulation segment reported revenue of 262 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 111.03%, driven by the successful commercialization of its projects [5] - The active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) business is stabilizing, with new product registrations ongoing, and the company has established solid supply relationships with major pharmaceutical firms [5] - The CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) segment is expanding, with ongoing collaborations with major clients and new project developments [5] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.603 billion, 1.982 billion, and 2.389 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.77%, 23.69%, and 20.49% respectively [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 129 million, 164 million, and 208 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 92.98%, 27.16%, and 27.04% respectively [5] - The company's stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 23, 18, and 14 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation given the expected growth [5]

Government & Policy - Concerns raised over the HHS Secretary's stance against mRNA technology, crucial for vaccines and cancer treatments, advocating for adherence to basic science [3][4] - The administration is accused of interfering with the Federal Reserve, mirroring Nixon's tactics, with blanket tariffs exacerbating inflationary pressures [6][7] - Discussion of a bipartisan bill for the release of Jeffrey Epstein files, emphasizing the need for transparency and closure for victims [11][12][13] - The administration's plan to purchase a 10% stake in Intel, sparking debate on taxpayer benefits and the need for broader investment and chip demand [14][16][17] Economic Performance & Direction - Consumer confidence has declined for seven consecutive months, farm closures have doubled, and manufacturing has decreased since President Trump took office [9] - High unemployment rate of almost 11% for recent college graduates, indicating a record of economic failure attributed to blanket tariffs and mass deportation [9][10] - Tariffs are identified as a key factor putting inflationary pressure on the economy, hindering the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates [7] Political Landscape - Concerns expressed about potential threats to democracy, including redistricting strategies and the targeting of seats protected by the Voting Rights Act [23][24][25] - California Governor Gavin Newsome warns that President Trump might not leave office when his term is up in 2028 [19]

Donald Trump was one of mRNA’s many supporters during the covid-19 pandemic. But now in his second term, disinformation and funding cuts to research will make the world a more dangerous place https://t.co/OBeX9m96cp ...