荣昌生物 20250825 摘要 荣昌生物 2025 年上半年营收约 44 亿元，同比增长 38%，但研发费用 同比下降近 20%，净亏损 4.5 亿元，同比降幅 42.4%，亏损额环比收 窄。公司现金储备充足，账面现金及票据约 14.8 亿元，另有 27 亿元银 行授信额度。 泰达斯西普上半年收入约 6.5 亿元，同比增长 59%，已进入超 1,000 家医院，近 600 家正式准入。未来策略包括扩大风湿领域医生覆盖，地 级市医院覆盖率，干燥综合症领域培养标杆医院和医生，肾科领域实施 差异化竞争。 维替西单抗上半年销售额约 44 亿元，同比增长约 38%，已进入约 1,000 家医院，正式准入约 450 家。下半年将在 UC、GC 和 DC 等领域 继续推进教育和推广策略，并针对竞品 ADC 间质性肺炎问题抢占市场。 RC48 尿路上皮癌适应症三期取得阳性结果并已申报上市，胃癌适应症 启动赫赛汀低表达一线胃癌三期临床。阿替司巴单抗治疗尿路上皮癌二 期临床试验正在推进，并已启动 BLA 申报准备工作。 Q&A 2025 年上半年荣昌生物的财务表现如何？ 2025 年上半年，荣昌生物实现营业收入 10.9 亿元 ...

⚫ 考虑到公司短期在手订单充足、产能稳步释放、积极开拓业务，同时加码长期资本 开支，我们上调收入、毛利率和费用率预测，调整公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别 为 1.29、1.78、2.45 元（25-27 年原预测为 1.05、1.41 和 1.91 元），考虑到公司是 全球 ADC CRDMO 龙头，长期发展潜力大，我们采取 DCF 估值法，给予目标价格为 65.82 港元（按照港元兑人民币 1:0.9125 汇率测算），维持"买入"评级。 药明合联 02268.HK 公司研究 | 中报点评 上调全年收入指引，加码长期资本开支 ——药明合联 2025 年中报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 风险提示 海外政策和市场环境、ADC 行业增速不及预期、CXO 行业竞争加剧、汇率和估值等风险 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2124 | 4052 | 5876 | 8062 | 10693 | | 同比增长 (%) | 114.4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 15.76 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 15.88%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.45 billion yuan, up 29.67% year-over-year, slightly exceeding expectations due to a significant increase in licensing income [1][2] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Growth - The company's innovative drug sales and licensing income reached 9.56 billion yuan in H1 2025, accounting for 60.66% of total revenue, with innovative drug sales alone contributing 7.57 billion yuan. The clinical value of innovative drugs such as Rivoraxaban and Darsilene has been recognized by doctors, leading to rapid revenue growth [2] Business Development (BD) Achievements - In H1 2025, the company secured three external licensing agreements, including a 15 million euro upfront payment from Merck for an oral GnRH receptor antagonist, a 200 million USD upfront payment from MSD for an Lp(a) inhibitor, and a 500 million USD upfront payment from GSK for 12 new drugs. The total potential milestone payments and sales royalties from these agreements could reach up to 17.7 billion USD [3] Operational Efficiency - The company's management, sales, and R&D expense ratios were 8.15%, 27.85%, and 20.48% respectively, showing a year-over-year decrease of 0.48pp, 1.11pp, and 1.86pp, indicating effective cost control and improved operational efficiency. The net operating cash flow increased significantly by 41.80% to 4.30 billion yuan, reflecting strong cash generation capabilities [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is recognized as a leading player in China's innovative drug sector, with continuous investment in R&D. The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to 9.05 billion yuan, 9.48 billion yuan, and 10.60 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 48, 45, and 41 [4][5]

投资建议：公司上半年的销售符合预期，我们维持公司的盈利预测，预计 2025-27 年 公 司 营 收 19.41/29.28/47.67 亿 元 ， 归 母 净 利 润 -7.21/-3.02/4.75 亿元。公司的核心产品 sac-TMT 商业化快速放量，合作伙 伴默沙东快速推进全球 3 期临床，维持"优于大市"评级。 风险提示：商业化进度不及预期，创新药研发进度不及预期。 | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,540 | 1,933 | 1,941 | 2,928 | 4,767 | | (+/-%) | 91.6% | 25.5% | 0.4% | 50.9% | 62.8% | | 净利润(百万元) | -574 | -267 | -721 | -302 | 475 | | (+/-%) | -- | -- | -- | -- | -257.2% | | 每股收益（元） | -2.53 | -1.17 | -3.17 | -1.3 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Dongwu Securities has given a "buy" rating for XinNuoWei (300765.SZ) based on its performance and potential in the biopharmaceutical sector [2] - The company experienced a slight revenue growth in H1, but a significant decline in profits [2] - The EGFR ADC data presented at the AACR conference is seen as a potential "blockbuster" drug, indicating strong future prospects [2] - The company is actively increasing its investment in research and development, focusing on ADC, mRNA, and monoclonal antibody drugs [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China Healthcare Industry Overview - The conference focused on the **China Healthcare** sector, particularly the pharmaceutical and biotech industries, highlighting the attractive investment landscape in the Asia Pacific region [2][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Growth Projections**: The global pharmaceutical market is expected to grow at a **CAGR of 5.7%** from 2023 to 2028, while the Chinese pharmaceutical market is projected to grow at a **CAGR of 7.7%** during the same period [9][12]. - **Market Dynamics**: The Chinese pharmaceutical market is characterized by a significant reliance on imported products, particularly in the albumin segment, where **60-70%** of the market is composed of imports [34]. - **Out-licensing Trends**: There has been a notable increase in out-licensing activities, with over **$50 billion** in deals recorded in 2024, driven by narrowing innovation gaps and emerging complex modalities [41][42]. - **Regulatory Environment**: The plasma industry in China faces high entry barriers, with only **<30 plasma fractionators** currently operating, leading to a market consolidation trend [33][34]. Important Developments - **Upcoming Events**: Key sector events include the **CSCO 2025** and **WCLC 2025** conferences, which are expected to influence stock performance in the pharmaceutical and biotech sectors [6][8]. - **Pipeline Assets**: Several companies, including Hengrui and CSPC, have significant pipeline assets with upcoming drug approvals and trial progress expected in **2H25** [32][27]. Potential Risks and Challenges - **Supply Constraints**: The Chinese plasma market is underdeveloped compared to global standards, with a limited variety of plasma derivatives available [34]. - **Market Competition**: The top five plasma companies dominate approximately **60%** of the market, indicating a highly consolidated competitive landscape [33]. Additional Insights - **Investment Sentiment**: The overall sentiment towards the China healthcare sector remains positive, with analysts highlighting the potential for significant returns driven by innovation and market expansion [2][41]. - **Technological Advancements**: The introduction of recombinant human albumin (rHSA) is expected to disrupt the albumin market, potentially capturing **~10%** of the total market share [35]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the China healthcare sector.

Core Insights - The company announced a rapid growth in orders for TPD, ADC, and peptide-related molecular building blocks, indicating a sustained demand in the new drug market [1] - In the TPD field, the company has built a large linker library with over 1,000 novel CRBN ligand structures, attracting inquiries from clients [1] - Due to space limitations, the current number of personnel in related business areas is limited, but new facilities will be operational by early next year, adding 300-400 fume hoods to enhance ADC and TPD-related operations [1] - The company aims to continuously enhance its influence in PROTAC, ADC, peptides, and non-natural amino acids [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive performance of the Hong Kong Innovation Drug ETF (159570), which has seen significant inflows and a record scale of over 11.9 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest in the innovative drug sector [1][3] - The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) has established a "new drug launch price mechanism" to encourage pharmaceutical innovation, signaling a shift from cost control to promoting high-quality innovation in drug pricing [3][5] - The majority of the index constituents of the Hong Kong Innovation Drug ETF have shown positive price movements, with notable gains from companies such as CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (up over 5%) and CanSino Biologics (up over 3%) [3][4] Group 2 - Institutional analysts express a continued optimistic outlook on the innovative drug industry chain, emphasizing the competitive edge of domestic innovative drugs and the increasing recognition from global multinational corporations [5][6] - Recent significant business development (BD) and merger and acquisition (M&A) activities in the innovative drug sector, including AstraZeneca's potential $15 billion deal and the collaboration between Hengrui Medicine and GSK, further catalyze the market [6][7] - The NHSA's recent announcements regarding the optimization of centralized procurement policies and the steady progress of innovative drug directory applications indicate a supportive regulatory environment for the innovative drug sector [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [7][11]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing rapid commercialization and is continuously enhancing its R&D pipeline, with a projected revenue of 200 million yuan in 2024, representing a growth of 56.28% [3][9]. - The company has successfully established business development (BD) deals that optimize cash flow, with two recent agreements totaling over 4.7 billion yuan, which will significantly support future R&D efforts [4][5]. - The company has a differentiated portfolio of ADC and TCE products, with significant potential in its lead candidate ST2 monoclonal antibody for COPD, which is expected to yield promising clinical data in 2025 [5][6]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 34.90 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 13.9 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a total share capital of 400 million shares, with 204 million shares in circulation [2]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 63.6% and a negative price-to-earnings ratio of -13.37, indicating current financial challenges [2]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 800 million yuan in 2025, 1.55 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.08 billion yuan in 2027, with significant growth rates projected [9][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to improve from -600 million yuan in 2025 to breakeven in 2027 [9][10]. - The EBITDA is expected to turn positive by 2026, indicating a potential turnaround in operational performance [9][10].

Macro Strategy - Public fiscal expenditure in June showed a year-on-year growth rate of 0.38%, with a cumulative growth rate of 3.4% for the first half of the year, maintaining around 4% overall. However, the fiscal revenue and expenditure gap for the first half of the year was -25,705 billion, higher than the -20,658 billion in the same period of 2024, indicating no improvement in fiscal conditions [2][3] - The LPR remained unchanged in July, with the one-year LPR at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50%. This stability aligns with market expectations, reflecting the positive effects of the LPR adjustment made in May [2][3] Stock Market Overview - A-share indices showed a fluctuating upward trend from July 21 to July 25, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.67%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.33%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.76%. The STAR Market Index saw the highest weekly fluctuation at 4.36% [3][5] - The market's upward momentum is primarily driven by the commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, boosting infrastructure-related sectors, and the continued strength of the technology sector. The GDP growth for the first half of the year was 5.3% year-on-year, laying a foundation for the market's upward trend [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The A-share market is expected to operate in a "slow bull" manner in 2025, supported by policies aimed at stabilizing the stock market and overlapping trends from the new "National Nine Articles" and similar to the "Four Trillion" investment [7] - Key sectors to focus on in 2025 include technology, green energy, consumption, and infrastructure, as highlighted in the government work report [7] - In the short term, the market may experience downward adjustments in August due to uncertainties surrounding US-China tariff negotiations, despite the overall positive economic performance in the first half of the year [7] North Exchange Overview - As of July 25, 2025, the North Exchange had 268 listed stocks, with an average total market value of 8,520.87 billion, an increase of 2.36% from the previous week [9][10] - The liquidity of the North Exchange improved significantly, with an average trading volume of 1.427 billion shares, up 39.13%, and an average trading value of 31.082 billion, up 42.36% [10] Industry Insights Semiconductor Industry - The company Micron is leveraging an AI+SaaS strategy to enhance its platform and integrated development path, significantly improving its competitive advantage. In 2024, the AI+SaaS business revenue reached 842 million, accounting for 54% of total revenue [32][33] - The marketing SaaS market in China is projected to grow from 35.6 billion in 2024 to 74.5 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 29.3%, indicating substantial growth potential [33] Pharmaceutical Industry - The ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) market is experiencing explosive growth, with the global market size expected to rise from 7.9 billion in 2022 to 14.1 billion in 2024, and projected to exceed 68.5 billion by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 30.1% [26][27] - The CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) sector is becoming increasingly essential due to the high technical barriers of ADC drugs, with the market size expected to grow from 0.1 billion in 2018 to 2.1 billion in 2022, and projected to reach 2.45 billion by 2030 [27][28] Investment Suggestions - The semiconductor sector is expected to benefit from the growth of KA clients and the rapid deployment of AI applications, leading to a high growth period for the company's SaaS business [36] - In the pharmaceutical sector, companies with ADC-related technology reserves, such as WuXi AppTec and Haoyuan Pharmaceutical, are recommended for investment due to their significant growth potential in the CDMO space [30][31]