Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the complexities of U.S.-China trade relations, particularly focusing on the soybean market, where U.S. farmers face significant challenges due to China's refusal to purchase American soybeans, which has become a focal point in trade negotiations [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market Dynamics - The U.S. agricultural sector, particularly soybean production, has seen a bumper harvest this year, yet China, the largest buyer in previous years, has ceased purchases, causing distress among U.S. farmers and the government [1]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, who is also a soybean farmer, expressed personal financial distress due to China's refusal to buy U.S. soybeans, highlighting the direct impact of trade policies on individual farmers [3]. Group 2: Trade Negotiation Challenges - The ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China have reached a "substantial framework," but significant compromises and further dialogue are necessary to resolve the long-standing trade war [4]. - The U.S. must make concessions on key issues, such as Taiwan and the South China Sea, to alter the current passive stance in negotiations, as continued hardline approaches may lead to further isolation [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Diplomatic Strategies - The article suggests that reasonable dialogue and compromise are essential for resolving conflicts, as the trade war cannot be a long-term solution in an increasingly globalized economy [6][8]. - There is hope for a balanced solution that meets the needs of U.S. soybean farmers while addressing China's concerns, but timely and substantive progress is crucial to avoid further harm [6][8].

Group 1 - The core message of the recent US-China trade talks in Kuala Lumpur is a significant softening of rhetoric from the US, indicated by Treasury Secretary Bessent's statement of "no longer considering" a 100% tariff increase on Chinese goods, which is seen as a key signal for easing trade tensions [1][3] - The shift from "considering" to "no longer considering" tariffs reflects a strategic reassessment by the US regarding the costs of the trade war, particularly in light of ongoing inflation pressures and the upcoming 2024 elections [3][10] - The negotiations covered sensitive topics such as maritime logistics, fentanyl regulation, and agricultural trade, with both sides focusing on pragmatic exchanges rather than resolving fundamental conflicts [5][6] Group 2 - The current suspension period for tariffs is set to expire on November 10, and extending this suspension is a priority, with the US seeking cooperation from China on fentanyl regulation in exchange for tariff pauses [6] - The US's emphasis on rare earths during the talks highlights its concerns over supply chain security, while China's bargaining power in this area has become a crucial leverage point in negotiations [6][8] - The timing of the talks, just before the APEC meeting, suggests both parties aim to create a favorable atmosphere for upcoming leadership discussions, with the US needing to project a tough stance on China while China seeks to stabilize relations to focus on economic development [8][10] Group 3 - The outcome of the talks is being closely monitored by global markets, reflecting the reality that US-China relations significantly impact the world, with Southeast Asian countries concerned about supply chain disruptions and European businesses hoping for stability to avoid choosing sides [8][10] - The expectation of avoiding a "new cold war" is a common hope among the international community, as both sides recognize that mutual harm from continued conflict is becoming a shared understanding [10]

Group 1: Negotiation Overview - The fifth round of US-China trade talks took place in Kuala Lumpur on October 25-26, focusing on tariffs, export controls, rare earths, and digital economy, with preliminary consensus reached[2] - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that the threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese products has diminished, and China is expected to resume soybean purchases and delay rare earth export controls for one year[3] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The negotiations signal a pragmatic approach from both sides, aiming for a balance between core interests and external stability, indicating a potential turning point in US-China trade relations[3] - China’s potential resumption of soybean purchases aligns with seasonal import peaks, with current purchases at only one-third of last year's levels as of September[7] - The US is showing a willingness to ease tensions by delaying extreme measures and extending the tariff suspension period, with a focus on a "fentanyl tariff for soybean purchases" as a negotiation balance point[10] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term improvements, the long-term structural conflicts in US-China relations remain unchanged, with technology continuing to be a core issue[14] - The recent negotiations may boost market risk appetite and support exports, providing a buffer for China's economic transition amid ongoing trade tensions[14]

Group 1 - The easing of China-US trade tensions has led to a surge in market optimism, with global stock markets, oil prices, and copper prices rising in response to the positive developments from trade talks in Kuala Lumpur [1][2] - Asian stock markets experienced significant gains, with the KOSPI index surpassing 4000 points and the Nikkei index reaching a historic high of 50,000 points, reflecting investor confidence in improved trade relations [2] - The progress in China-US trade negotiations has alleviated concerns about economic weakness, contributing to a rise in US stock futures and commodity prices, particularly for agricultural products [3][4] Group 2 - Investors are looking for sustained signals of trade conflict resolution and effective economic stimulus measures from China, which could translate into tangible growth [4][5] - China's industrial profits showed a year-on-year increase of 3.2% for the first nine months of the year, with a notable 21.6% growth in September, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations [4] - The stability and cooperation between China and the US are crucial for global market confidence, as their trade relationship accounts for nearly one-fifth of global trade [5]

五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 【行情资讯】 有色金属日报 2025-10-28 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美国对中国关税威胁"消除"，权益市场走强，铜价延续涨势，昨日伦铜 3M 合约收涨 0.49%至 11000 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 88130 元/吨。LME 铜库存减少 375 至 139575 吨，注销仓单比例下滑， Cash/3M 维持贴水 ...

2025年10月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地去库缓慢，关注下方支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆偏强，或带动连粕反弹 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏弱 | 6 | | 白糖：外弱内强 | 7 | | 棉花：新棉成本上移支撑棉花期价 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：维持调整 | 10 | | 生猪：短期现货偏强，再累库格局 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 28 日 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地去库缓慢，关注下方支撑 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,100 | -0.24% | ...

转自：北京日报客户端 中国始终秉持开放、理性、务实的态度，以互利共赢为导向发展对美经贸关系。希望美方着眼长远，与 中方相向而行，共同落实好两国元首历次通话重要共识和今年以来历次经贸磋商成果，让合作成为中美 经贸关系的主旋律。 新一轮中美经贸磋商于10月26日在马来西亚吉隆坡落下帷幕。双方以今年以来两国元首历次通话重要共 识为引领，围绕双方共同关心的重要经贸问题，进行了坦诚、深入、富有建设性的交流磋商，就解决各 自关切的安排达成基本共识。双方同意进一步确定具体细节，并履行各自国内批准程序。 中美经贸磋商成果来之不易。美方应以战略眼光和长远思维看待中美经贸关系，回归理性与务实的轨 道，正确认识中美经贸关系的本质、中美在经贸领域的分歧以及中美经贸关系的国际影响，与中方共同 维护磋商成果。 来源：经济日报 作者: 郭 言 中美经贸关系的本质是合作共赢。中美拥有广泛的共同利益和广阔的合作空间，在经贸领域已形成优势 互补、互利共赢的格局。中美经济深度交织、利益高度融合，彼此难以割裂。中国始终秉持开放、理 性、务实的态度，以互利共赢为导向发展对美经贸关系。美国一些有识之士也多次指出，"脱钩断链"无 助于美国经济，将损害美国 ...

Group 1 - The easing of China-US trade tensions has led to a significant increase in market optimism, resulting in a rebound across global markets, including stock prices, oil, and copper [1][2][3] - Asian stock markets saw substantial gains, with the KOSPI index surpassing 4000 points and the Nikkei index reaching a historical high of 50,000 points, reflecting investor confidence in improved trade relations [2] - The positive sentiment from the China-US trade discussions has also influenced commodity prices, with agricultural products like soybeans and corn expected to benefit from a potential trade agreement [3][4] Group 2 - The progress in China-US trade negotiations has alleviated concerns about economic weakness, leading to a rise in US stock futures and European stock index futures [3][5] - China's industrial profits showed a year-on-year increase of 3.2% for the first nine months of the year, with a notable 21.6% growth in September, exceeding market expectations [4] - The stability and cooperation between China and the US are crucial for global market confidence, as their trade accounts for nearly one-fifth of the global total, highlighting the interconnectedness of supply chains [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that China maintains an open, rational, and pragmatic attitude towards developing economic and trade relations with the U.S., aiming for mutual benefit and win-win outcomes [1][2] - The recent round of U.S.-China economic and trade consultations concluded on October 26 in Kuala Lumpur, where both sides engaged in constructive discussions and reached basic consensus on resolving mutual concerns [1][2] - The essence of U.S.-China economic and trade relations is cooperation and mutual benefit, with both countries having extensive common interests and complementary advantages [2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. and China, as the world's two largest economies, have a vast and intricate economic relationship, making it normal to have differences, but the focus should be on how to view and resolve these differences [2][3] - The international community expects the U.S. and China to manage differences and expand cooperation to inject more stability and predictability into the global economy [3] - Both countries should adhere to mutual respect and trust to ensure the long-term stability of their economic and trade relations, with a call for the U.S. to act with sincerity to consolidate the outcomes of the Kuala Lumpur talks [3]

据央视新闻，10月27日，中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅同美国国务卿鲁比奥通电话。 王毅表示，中美关系牵动世界的走向，一个健康、稳定、可持续的双边关系符合两国长远利益，也是国际社会共同期待。习近平主席和特朗普总统 都是世界级领袖，长期交往、彼此尊重，这已成为中美关系最宝贵的战略资产。前段时间，中美经贸关系再次出现波折。通过吉隆坡经贸会谈，双 方澄清了立场，增进了理解，就对等解决当前紧迫的经贸问题达成框架共识。这再次证明，只要双方不折不扣落实两国元首达成的重要共识，秉承 平等、尊重、互惠精神，坚持通过对话化解矛盾，摒弃动辄施压的做法，就有可能推动两国关系稳下来、向前走。希望双方相向而行，为中美高层 互动做好准备，为两国关系发展创造条件。 鲁比奥表示，美中关系是世界上最重要的双边关系，期待通过高层互动，向世界发出积极信号。 ...