金属期权 2025-11-04 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属区间震荡，构建卖方中性波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系维持大幅度波动的 行情走势，适合构建做空波动率组合策略；（3）贵金属高位回落连续大幅下跌，构建现货避险策略。 | 表1：标的期货市场概况 | | --- | | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a high - level volatile upward trend for the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks [3]. - The implied volatility of financial options has decreased but remains at a relatively high level of fluctuation [3]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a bullish buyer strategy and a bull spread strategy for call options; for index options, it is suitable to construct a bullish seller strategy, a bull spread strategy for call options, and an arbitrage strategy between synthetic long futures of options and short futures [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Important Indexes - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,954.79, down 32.11 points or 0.81%, with a trading volume of 103.11 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.9 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,378.21, down 153.91 points or 1.14%, with a trading volume of 128.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.49 billion yuan [4]. - The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 3,011.55, down 35.06 points or 1.15%, with a trading volume of 16.93 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.54 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,640.67, down 69.24 points or 1.47%, with a trading volume of 68.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.92 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 500 Index closed at 7,331.00, down 54.71 points or 0.74%, with a trading volume of 43.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.89 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,506.67, up 21.59 points or 0.29%, with a trading volume of 47.56 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.29 billion yuan [4]. 3.2 Option - related Data 3.2.1 Option - based ETF Market - Information on the closing price, change, trading volume, and trading volume change of various option - based ETFs such as the Shanghai 50 ETF, Shanghai 300 ETF, etc. is provided [5]. 3.2.2 Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR - Data on the trading volume, trading volume change, open interest, open interest change, volume PCR, and position PCR of various option varieties are presented [6]. 3.2.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Points - The pressure points, support points, and their offsets for different option varieties are given, which are determined from the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [8][10]. 3.2.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, annual average, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, HISV20, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of various option varieties are provided [11]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations - The financial options sector is divided into large - cap blue - chip stocks, small and medium - sized boards, and the ChiNext board. Each board selects some varieties for option strategy recommendations [13]. - For each option variety, the strategy report is compiled according to the underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [13]. 3.3.1 Financial Stock Board (Shanghai 50 ETF, Shanghai 50) - The Shanghai 50 ETF shows a bullish upward trend with short - term support below and significant high - level volatility [14]. - The implied volatility of Shanghai 50 ETF options fluctuates around the mean, and the position PCR is around 1.00, indicating a volatile market. The pressure level is 3.20, and the support level is 3.10 [14]. - Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a seller - biased bullish combination strategy to obtain time - value income and dynamically adjust the position delta to maintain a long position [14]. 3.3.2 Large - Cap Blue - Chip Stock Board (Shanghai 300 ETF) - The Shanghai 300 ETF shows a bullish upward trend with short - term support below [14]. - The implied volatility of Shanghai 300 ETF options fluctuates above the mean, and the position PCR is above 1.00, indicating a relatively strong bullish market. The pressure level is 4.80, and the support level is 4.70 [14]. - Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a strategy to sell call and put options to short volatility and obtain option time - value income [14]. 3.3.3 Large - and Medium - Sized Stock Board (Shenzhen 100 ETF) - The Shenzhen 100 ETF shows a bullish high - level volatile market trend [15]. - The implied volatility of Shenzhen 100 ETF options fluctuates at a relatively high level, and the position PCR is above 1.00, indicating a bullish and volatile market. The pressure level is 3.70, and the support level is 3.50 [15]. - Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a strategy to sell call and put options to short volatility and obtain option time - value income [15]. 3.3.4 Small and Medium - Sized Board (Shanghai 500 ETF, CSI 1000) - The Shanghai 500 ETF shows a high - level volatile market trend, and the CSI 1000 shows a high - level volatile trend with pressure above [15][16]. - The implied volatility of Shanghai 500 ETF options fluctuates above the historical mean, and the position PCR is above 1.00, indicating a relatively strong volatile market. The pressure level is 7.50, and the support level is 7.00 [15]. - The implied volatility of CSI 1000 index options has risen to above the mean, and the position PCR is around 1.00, indicating a volatile market. The pressure level is 7500, and the support level is 7000 [16]. - Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a strategy to sell call and put options to short volatility and obtain option time - value income [15][16]. 3.3.5 ChiNext Board (ChiNext ETF) - The ChiNext ETF shows a bullish trend with high - level volatility and then a new high [16]. - The implied volatility of ChiNext ETF options remains at a relatively high level, and the position PCR is above 1.00, indicating a relatively strong volatile market. The pressure level is 3.60, and the support level is 3.00 [16]. - Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a strategy to short volatility and obtain time - value income [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, options strategies and recommendations are provided for selected varieties. Options strategy reports are compiled based on the analysis of the underlying market, option factor research, and option strategy recommendations for each option variety. Strategies mainly involve constructing option combination strategies focused on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy and chemical option underlying futures contracts are presented. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2512) is 464, with a price increase of 4 and a price change percentage of 0.91%, trading volume of 8.02 million lots, volume change of -2.85 million lots, open interest of 2.96 million lots, and open interest change of -0.19 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume and open interest PCR data for various energy and chemical options are provided. Volume PCR is used to describe whether the underlying market has a turning point, and open interest PCR is used to describe the strength of the option underlying market. For example, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.90, with a change of -0.03, and the open interest PCR is 0.66, with a change of -0.03 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels for various energy and chemical option underlying contracts are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil (SC2512) is 500, and the support level is 440 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data for various energy and chemical options are presented, including at-the-money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility changes, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at-the-money implied volatility of crude oil options is 27.935%, the weighted implied volatility is 29.69%, with a change of -0.19% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Energy Options - Crude Oil - Fundamental analysis: US refinery demand has stabilized and rebounded. During the recent oil price decline, shale oil production did not significantly decrease. OPEC exports have increased, but most are absorbed by China, so there is no obvious visible inventory in the market. In Europe, the overall refined oil inventory is in a low - level destocking state, and the crude oil inventory has increased, but refinery demand is about to enter the peak season, and the diesel crack spread remains high [7]. - Market analysis: Since July, crude oil prices have gradually weakened and then consolidated in a range. In August, prices first rose and then fell, showing short - term weak fluctuations. In September, the market continued to be weak and bearish before gradually rebounding. In October, prices fell sharply and then stopped falling and rebounded [7]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of crude oil options has declined to near the average level. The open interest PCR of options is below 0.80, indicating that crude oil has been in a weak market recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of crude oil is 500, and the support level is 450 [7]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value and directional returns, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta neutral. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, holding a spot long position + buying a put option + selling an out - of - the - money call option [7]. 3.5.2 Energy Options - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Fundamental analysis: The cost - end crude oil is under pressure from oversupply on one hand and geopolitical issues on the other. Last week, the crude oil price fluctuated around the $65 mark, and OPEC maintained its production increase. US propane inventories continue to accumulate, and the inventory is at a historical high, waiting for an inventory inflection point [9]. - Market analysis: Since August, LPG prices have accelerated their decline, then rebounded and rose, but the upward movement was blocked and then declined. In September, prices first rose and then fell rapidly. In October, prices were first weak and then strong, gradually rebounding and rising, followed by slight fluctuations, showing an oversold rebound market with resistance above [9]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of LPG options has significantly declined to near the lower - than - average level. The open interest PCR of LPG options is around 0.80, indicating that LPG has been in a weak market recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of LPG is 4500, and the support level is 4000 [9]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value and directional returns, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta neutral. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, holding a spot long position + buying a put option + selling an out - of - the - money call option [9]. 3.5.3 Alcohol Options - Methanol - Fundamental analysis: The port inventory of methanol is 150.65 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.57 million tons, remaining in a high - level shock state and difficult to effectively destock. The enterprise inventory is 37.61 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.57 million tons, and the year - on - year level is low. The enterprise's pending orders are 21.56 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 million tons [9]. - Market analysis: In July, methanol prices rose and then fell, continuously declining and weakening, followed by significant fluctuations. Since August, prices have gradually weakened and trended downward. In September, prices consolidated at a low level and then rebounded. Since October, the market has continued to be weak and bearish, showing a weak market trend with resistance above [9]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuates around the historical average level. The open interest PCR of methanol options is below 0.80, indicating that methanol has been in a weak and fluctuating market recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of methanol is 2300, and the support level is 2200 [9]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bear spread strategy of put options to obtain directional returns. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta bearish. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, holding a spot long position + buying a put option + selling an out - of - the - money call option. When the market rebounds to the high strike price, close the position in combination with spot sales [9]. 3.5.4 Alcohol Options - Ethylene Glycol - Fundamental analysis: The port inventory of ethylene glycol is 52.3 million tons, with a month - on - month destocking of 5.6 million tons; the downstream factory inventory days are 13.4 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 days. In the short term, the arrival volume was high last week, and the departure volume was moderately low. The port inventory is expected to accumulate. The domestic production load is at a high level, and the overseas arrival volume is increasing, so ethylene glycol has entered an inventory accumulation period [10]. - Market analysis: In July, ethylene glycol prices were in a low - level weak consolidation and gradually rose, then fell rapidly. In August, prices continued to show slight weak consolidation. Since September, the market has continued to be weak and bearish, showing a weak market trend with resistance above [10]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuates around the lower - than - average level. The open interest PCR of options is around 0.70, indicating that the bearish force of ethylene glycol has been relatively strong recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of ethylene glycol is 4500, and the support level is 4050 [10]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bear spread strategy of put options to obtain directional returns. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility strategy to obtain time value returns. Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [10]. 3.5.5 Polyolefin Options - Polypropylene - Fundamental analysis: The inventory of PE production enterprises is 51.46 million tons, with a month - on - month destocking of - 2.81%, and a year - on - year inventory increase of 2.02%; the inventory of PE traders is 5.00 million tons, with a month - on - month destocking of - 0.70%. The inventory of PP production enterprises is 63.85 million tons, with a month - on - month destocking of - 5.92%, and a year - on - year inventory increase of 12.69%; the inventory of PP traders is 22.00 million tons, with a month - on - month destocking of - 7.80%; the port inventory of PP is 6.68 million tons, with a month - on - month destocking of - 1.62%. The overall inventory pressure of PP is higher than that of PE [10]. - Market analysis: Since July, the decline of polypropylene prices has narrowed, gradually stabilized, and slightly fluctuated upwards, then fell rapidly. In August, prices maintained slight weak fluctuations. Since September, the market has continued to be weak and bearish. In October, prices fell rapidly and then fluctuated at a low level, showing a weak market trend with bearish pressure above [10]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of polypropylene options has declined to near the average level. The open interest PCR of options is around 0.70, indicating that polypropylene has been weak recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of polypropylene is 7000, and the support level is 6300 [10]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: None. Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [10]. 3.5.6 Rubber Options - Rubber - Fundamental analysis: The social inventory of natural rubber in China is 103.89 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.1 million tons, a decline of 1%. The total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 43.22 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.53 million tons, a decline of 1.2%. The bonded area inventory is 6.87 million tons, a decline of 1.29%; the general trade inventory is 36.35 million tons, a decline of 1.18% [11]. - Market analysis: Since July, rubber prices have continued to rise in the short term and then reached a peak and fell back. In August, prices gradually recovered and rose, then fluctuated in a range. Since September, the market has continued to be weak and bearish. In October, prices continued to be weak and fluctuated at a low level, showing a weak consolidation market trend with support below and resistance above [11]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of rubber options has rapidly increased and then declined to near the lower - than - average level. The open interest PCR of rubber options is below 0.60. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of rubber has significantly moved down to 17000, and the support level is 14000 [11]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value and directional returns, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta bearish. Spot hedging strategy: None [11]. 3.5.7 Polyester Options - PTA - Fundamental analysis: The operating load of PTA is 78%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. In terms of equipment, Yisheng Dalian and Weilian Chemical slightly reduced their loads, Zhongtai is restarting, and the new plant of Shanshan Energy has been put into production. The expected maintenance volume of PTA in November will increase significantly, and the overall load is under great pressure under low processing fees [11]. - Market analysis: In August, PTA prices fell back, then slightly consolidated, and then rebounded rapidly, but the upward movement was blocked and then declined. Since September, the market has continued to be weak and bearish. In October, prices first fell and then rose, followed by slight fluctuations, showing a weak and bearish market trend with resistance above [11]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuates at a relatively high level compared to the average. The open interest PCR of PTA options is around 0.70, indicating that PTA has been in a fluctuating market recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of PTA is 4600, and the support level is 4300 [11]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta bearish. Spot hedging strategy: None [11]. 3.5.8 Energy and Chemical Options - Caustic Soda - Fundamental analysis: The average utilization rate of the production capacity of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above is 84.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. By region, the production loads in the northwest, north, east, northeast, and south have all increased [12]. - Market analysis: In July, caustic soda prices first rose and then fell. In August, prices fell rapidly and then gradually rebounded, showing short - term bullish upward movement and then high - level fluctuations. Since September, prices have continuously closed with negative candles and gradually weakened. In October, prices fell rapidly, showing a weak and bearish market trend with resistance above recently [12]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of caustic soda options fluctuates at a relatively high level. The open interest PCR of caustic soda options is below 0.8, indicating that caustic soda has been in a weak and fluctuating market recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of caustic soda is 2600, and the support level is 2240 [12]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bear spread strategy to obtain directional returns. Volatility strategy: None. Spot collar hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [12]. 3.5.9 Energy and Chemical Options - Soda Ash - Fundamental analysis: As of October 31, 2025, the in - plant inventory of soda ash is 170.2 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 million tons; the inventory available days are 14.11 days, remaining unchanged month - on - month. The in - plant inventory of heavy soda ash is 88.64 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.81 yuan/ton; the in - plant inventory of light soda ash is 81.56 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4.80 yuan/ton [12]. - Market analysis: Since August, soda ash prices have continued to show weak consolidation. In September, prices fluctuated slightly at a low level and were weak. In October, the market continued to be weak, recently showing a low - level weak fluctuating market trend with support below [12]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of soda ash options fluctuates at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR of soda ash options is below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of soda ash is 1300, and the support level is 1100 [12]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bear spread strategy to obtain directional returns. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy to obtain volatility returns. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, holding a spot long position + buying a put option + selling an out - of - the - money call option [12]. 3.5.10 Energy and Chemical Options - Urea - Fundamental analysis: The enterprise inventory of urea is 155.43 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 7.59 million tons. Some reserve demands have followed up, and the enterprise inventory has decreased from a high level. The port inventory is 11 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 million tons, and ports in many places have loaded and cleared the inventory [13]. - Market analysis: In July, urea prices fluctuated widely in a large range under the bearish pressure line and then rose rapidly. In August, prices continued to fluctuate widely

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector is mainly divided into beans, oils, agricultural by - products, soft commodities, grains, and others. For each sector, some varieties are selected to provide option strategies and suggestions. Each option variety has an option strategy report written according to the underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [8] - Oilseed and oil - related agricultural products are in a weak and volatile state, oils and agricultural by - products maintain a volatile market, soft commodity sugar has a slight fluctuation, cotton is in a weak consolidation, and grains such as corn and starch are in a weak and narrow - range consolidation. The strategy is to construct an option portfolio strategy mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The document provides the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various agricultural product futures contracts such as soybeans, soybean meal, palm oil, etc. For example, the latest price of the A2601 soybean contract is 4,100, with a price increase of 5 and a price change rate of 0.12% [3] 3.2 Option Factor - Quantity and Position PCR - It shows the trading volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, trading volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of various agricultural product options. For instance, the trading volume PCR of soybean No. 1 option is 0.81, with a change of - 0.01, and the open interest PCR is 1.14, with a change of 0.09 [4] 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, pressure point offsets, support points, support point offsets, maximum call option positions, and maximum put option positions of various agricultural product options are presented. For example, the pressure point of soybean No. 1 option is 4,200, and the support point is 4,050 [5] 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - It includes the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatilities of various agricultural product options. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No. 1 option is 12.235, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.72, with a change of - 0.67 [6] 3.5 Option Strategies for Different Varieties 3.5.1 Oilseed and Oil Options - **Soybean No. 1**: The fundamental price is stable with a slight upward trend. The market has shown a pattern of oversold rebound since October. The implied volatility is below the historical average, the position PCR is below 0.70, the pressure level is 4200, and the support level is 3900. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased short call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [7] - **Soybean Meal**: As of October 31, the weekly soybean crushing volume decreased. The market has shown a weak rebound. The implied volatility is below the historical average, the position PCR is below 0.60, the pressure level is 2950, and the support level is 2800. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased short call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [9] - **Palm Oil**: The production in October may face pressure, and the export growth rate has narrowed. The market is in a high - level volatile state. The implied volatility is below the historical average, the position PCR is above 1.00, the pressure level is 9500, and the support level is 9000. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased short call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [9] - **Peanut**: The price of peanut oil is stable. The market is in a weak consolidation under the bearish pressure line. The implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, the position PCR is below 0.60, the pressure level is 8000, and the support level is 7700. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: None; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a long spot + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [10] 3.5.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Pig**: The average price in some regions has increased slightly. The market is in a weak downward trend. The implied volatility is above the historical average, the position PCR is below 0.50, the pressure level is 14000, and the support level is 11000. Directional strategy: Construct a bearish put option spread strategy; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased short call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - covered strategy: Hold a long spot + sell an out - of - the - money call option [10] - **Egg**: The inventory of laying hens at the end of October decreased. The market is in a weak bearish trend. The implied volatility is at a relatively high level, the position PCR is below 0.60, the pressure level is 4000, and the support level is 2800. Directional strategy: Construct a bearish put option spread strategy; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased short call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [11] - **Apple**: The futures price has a higher center of gravity in October. The market is in a continuous upward trend with pressure. The implied volatility is above the historical average, the position PCR is above 0.90, the pressure level is 9300, and the support level is 8000. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a long - biased short call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [11] - **Jujube**: The physical inventory has increased. The market is in a weak bearish trend. The implied volatility has rapidly risen above the historical average, the position PCR is below 0.50, the pressure level is 12600, and the support level is 10000. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased short strangle option combination strategy; Spot covered hedging strategy: Hold a long spot + sell an out - of - the - money call option [12] 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: The spot price in Guangxi has decreased, and the basis has weakened. The market is in a weak bearish state. The implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level, the position PCR is around 0.60, the pressure level is 5700, and the support level is 5400. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased short call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [12] - **Cotton**: The China Cotton Price Index has increased. The market is in a short - term weak state. The implied volatility is at a low level, the position PCR is below 1.00, the pressure level is 13600, and the support level is 13000. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased short call + put option combination strategy; Spot covered strategy: Hold a long spot + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [13] 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn**: The supply in the origin has increased, and the trading enthusiasm of traders has decreased. The market is in a weak bearish rebound and then a downward weak consolidation. The implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level, the position PCR is below 0.60, the pressure level is 2200, and the support level is 2000. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased short call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: None [13]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a metal options strategy morning report dated November 3, 2025 [1] - It covers various metal options including non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and black metals [8] - Different strategies are proposed for each metal based on market conditions, option factors, etc. [7][9][10] Group 2: Market Conditions of Underlying Futures - Copper (CU2512) is priced at 87,130, down 80 (-0.09%), with a trading volume of 24.44 million lots and an open interest of 25.83 million lots [3] - Aluminum (AL2512) is at 21,415, up 130 (0.61%), with a trading volume of 20.09 million lots and an open interest of 26.69 million lots [3] - Other metals such as zinc, lead, nickel, etc., also have their respective price, trading volume, and open - interest data [3] Group 3: Option Factors Volume and Open Interest PCR - For copper, the volume PCR is 0.55 with a change of 0.14, and the open - interest PCR is 0.75 with no change [4] - Aluminum has a volume PCR of 0.40 with no change and an open - interest PCR of 0.70 with a - 0.07 change [4] Pressure and Support Levels - Copper's pressure point is 90,000 and support point is 82,000 [5] - Aluminum's pressure point is 21,800 and support point is 19,900 [5] Implied Volatility - Copper's average implied volatility of at - the - money options is 21.02%, and the weighted implied volatility is 22.69% with a - 1.95 change [6] - Aluminum's average implied volatility of at - the - money options is 12.77%, and the weighted implied volatility is 13.86% with a - 0.26 change [6] Group 4: Strategies and Recommendations Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Build a bull spread strategy for call options and a short - volatility seller option combination strategy, and also a spot long - hedging strategy [7] - **Aluminum**: Construct a bull spread strategy for call options, a short call + put option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Build a neutral short - volatility option seller combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy [12] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Construct a short call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - covered call strategy [14] - **Iron Ore**: Build a short call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy [14]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Options Strategy Morning Report [2] - Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Covered Option Types: Energy (crude oil, LPG), polyolefins (PP, PVC, L, EB), polyester (PX, PTA, PF, PR), alkali chemicals (SH, SA, UR), and others (rubber) [3] - General Strategy: Construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, and enhance returns through spot hedging or covered strategies [3] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - Multiple underlying futures are presented, including crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc., with details on the latest price, change, change rate, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change [4] Group 3: Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - PCR indicators (volume PCR and open interest PCR) are provided for various options, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [5] Group 4: Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels for each option are determined based on the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [6] Group 5: Option Factor - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, are presented for different options [7] Group 6: Strategy and Recommendations for Each Option Type Crude Oil Options - Fundamental Analysis: US refinery demand is stabilizing and rising, shale oil production cut is small, OPEC exports are increasing but mostly absorbed by China, and European refined product inventory is decreasing while crude oil inventory is rising [8] - Market Analysis: The crude oil market has shown a pattern of weakening, consolidation, and then a rebound since July [8] - Option Factor Analysis: Implied volatility has declined to near the average, open interest PCR indicates a weak market, and the pressure and support levels are 500 and 450 respectively [8] - Strategy Recommendations: For volatility, construct a neutral short call + put option combination; for spot hedging, use a long collar strategy [8] LPG Options - Fundamental Analysis: High production and inventory in the US, potential extreme weather in winter and Sino - US trade trends may affect prices, and OPEC + policies will impact future exports [10] - Market Analysis: The LPG market has experienced a decline, followed by a rebound and then a resistance to further increase [10] - Option Factor Analysis: Implied volatility has significantly declined to below the average, open interest PCR indicates a weak market, and the pressure and support levels are 4500 and 4000 respectively [10] - Strategy Recommendations: Similar to crude oil, construct a neutral short call + put option combination for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] Methanol Options - Fundamental Analysis: Port inventory is increasing at a slower rate, and enterprise inventory is at a relatively low level year - on - year [10] - Market Analysis: The methanol market has shown a weak trend with some rebounds [10] - Option Factor Analysis: Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, open interest PCR indicates a weak and volatile market, and the pressure and support levels are 2300 and 2200 respectively [10] - Strategy Recommendations: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] Ethylene Glycol Options - Fundamental Analysis: EG load has decreased, port inventory is increasing, and it has entered a inventory accumulation cycle [11] - Market Analysis: The ethylene glycol market has been in a weak trend [11] - Option Factor Analysis: Implied volatility fluctuates below the average, open interest PCR indicates strong short - side power, and the pressure and support levels are 4500 and 4050 respectively [11] - Strategy Recommendations: Construct a bear spread strategy for direction, a short - volatility strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Polypropylene Options - Fundamental Analysis: PP inventory pressure is higher than PE [11] - Market Analysis: The polypropylene market has shown a weak trend [11] - Option Factor Analysis: Implied volatility has declined to near the average, open interest PCR indicates a weak market, and the pressure and support levels are 7000 and 6300 respectively [11] - Strategy Recommendations: Use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Rubber Options - Fundamental Analysis: Imported rubber prices are rising, but downstream procurement is weak [12] - Market Analysis: The rubber market has been in a weak consolidation pattern [12] - Option Factor Analysis: Implied volatility has decreased to below the average, open interest PCR is below 0.6, and the pressure and support levels are 17000 and 14000 respectively [12] - Strategy Recommendations: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility [12] PTA Options - Fundamental Analysis: PTA load is increasing slightly, and maintenance volume in October has decreased [12] - Market Analysis: The PTA market has shown a weak trend [12] - Option Factor Analysis: Implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high level, open interest PCR indicates a volatile market, and the pressure and support levels are 4600 and 4300 respectively [12] - Strategy Recommendations: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility [12] Caustic Soda Options - Fundamental Analysis: Non - aluminum demand for caustic soda has not shown significant restocking, and cost support has weakened [13] - Market Analysis: The caustic soda market has been in a weak downward trend [13] - Option Factor Analysis: Implied volatility is at a high level, open interest PCR indicates a weak and volatile market, and the pressure and support levels are 2600 and 2240 respectively [13] - Strategy Recommendations: Construct a bear spread strategy for direction and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] Soda Ash Options - Fundamental Analysis: Soda ash inventory has increased slightly [13] - Market Analysis: The soda ash market has been in a weak consolidation pattern [13] - Option Factor Analysis: Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, open interest PCR indicates strong short - side pressure, and the pressure and support levels are 1300 and 1100 respectively [13] - Strategy Recommendations: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] Urea Options - Fundamental Analysis: Enterprise inventory is at a high level year - on - year, and port inventory is decreasing [14] - Market Analysis: The urea market has been in a weak and volatile pattern [14] - Option Factor Analysis: Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, open interest PCR indicates strong short - side pressure, and the pressure and support levels are 1800 and 1600 respectively [14] - Strategy Recommendations: Construct a neutral short call + put option combination for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] Group 7: Charts - Charts for each option type are provided, including price trends, volume and open interest, PCR indicators, implied volatility, historical volatility cones, and pressure and support levels [15][36][54]

Overall Summary - The report is a metal option strategy morning report dated October 31, 2025, covering有色金属, precious metals, and black metals [1][2] - For different metal options, it provides market analysis, option factor research, and strategy recommendations based on their fundamentals and market trends [7][8][9] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals with range - bound oscillations, construct seller neutral volatility strategies; for black metals with large - amplitude fluctuations, build short - volatility portfolio strategies; for precious metals with significant declines from high levels, construct spot hedging strategies [2] Summary by Category 1. Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various metal futures contracts, such as copper (CU2512), aluminum (AL2512), etc [3] 2. Option Factors - Quantity and Position PCR - PCR indicators, including volume PCR and open interest PCR, are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning points of the underlying market [4] 3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of option underlying assets are determined by the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [5] 4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - It shows the implied volatility data of various metal options, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatilities [6] 5. Strategy and Recommendations Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Based on its fundamentals and market trends, construct bull spread strategies for directional trading, short - volatility seller option combinations for volatility trading, and spot hedging strategies [7] - **Aluminum**: Build bull spread strategies, short call and put option combinations, and spot collar strategies [9] - **Zinc**: Construct short call and put option combinations and spot collar strategies [9] - **Nickel**: Build short call and put option combinations with a bearish bias and spot covered call strategies [10] - **Tin**: Implement short - volatility strategies and spot collar strategies [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Build short call and put option combinations with a bearish bias and spot hedging strategies [11] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Construct short - volatility option seller combinations and spot hedging strategies [12] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Build short call and put option combinations with a bearish bias and spot covered call strategies [13] - **Iron Ore**: Build short call and put option combinations with a bearish bias and spot collar strategies [13] - **Ferroalloy**: Implement short - volatility strategies [14] - **Industrial Silicon**: Build short call and put option combinations and spot hedging strategies [14] - **Glass**: Build short - volatility strategies and spot collar strategies [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector includes energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. Each option variety's strategy report includes target market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [9]. - The overall strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Target Futures Market Overview - The document provides the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical futures contracts, such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2512) is 465, with a price increase of 6 and a price change percentage of 1.28% [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various energy - chemical options are presented. These indicators are used to describe the strength of the option target market and the turning point of the target market. For example, the open interest PCR of crude oil options is 0.77, with a change of - 0.04 [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various energy - chemical options are given, which are determined by the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil options is 500 and the support level is 450 [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of various energy - chemical options is provided, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, changes in weighted implied volatility, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil options is 28.075, and the weighted implied volatility is 29.38 with a change of - 0.93 [7]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy Options - **Crude Oil**: The fundamental situation shows that US refinery demand is picking up, shale oil production reduction is small, OPEC exports are increasing but mostly absorbed by China, and European refined product inventories are in a low - level destocking state. The market has shown a trend of decline, followed by consolidation, and then a rebound. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **LPG**: The US market has high - production and high - inventory pressure, and extreme winter weather and Sino - US trade trends may affect prices. The market has experienced a decline, followed by a rebound and then a fall. Option strategies are similar to those of crude oil, including constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.2 Alcohol Options - **Methanol**: Port and enterprise inventories are at certain levels, and the market shows a weak upward - pressured trend. Option strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The load and inventory situation is complex, and the market is in a weak trend. Option strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy for direction and a short - volatility strategy for volatility, along with a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.3 Polyolefin Options - **Polypropylene**: The inventory pressure of PP is higher than that of PE, and the market is in a weak trend. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.4 Rubber Options - **Rubber**: The import market price is rising, but downstream demand is weak. The market is in a weak consolidation state. Option strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility [12]. 3.5.5 Polyester Options - **PTA**: The load is at a certain level, and the market is in a weak bearish trend. Option strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility [12]. 3.5.6 Alkali Options - **Caustic Soda**: The spot market has issues such as lack of restocking and weakening cost support, and the market is in a weak bearish trend. Option strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy for direction and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The inventory situation is given, and the market is in a low - level weak consolidation state. Option strategies include constructing a short - volatility combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.5.7 Other Options - **Urea**: The enterprise inventory is at a high level, and the market is in a low - level weak consolidation state. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14].

Group 1: Report Summary - Report date: October 30, 2025 [1] - Report type: Metal options strategy morning report - Core view: For non - ferrous metals with range - bound oscillations, construct a neutral volatility strategy for sellers; for the black series with large - amplitude fluctuations, build a short - volatility combination strategy; for precious metals with significant declines after reaching high levels, construct a spot hedging strategy [2] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - Copper (CU2512): Latest price 89,130, up 1,080 (1.23%), volume 19.77 million lots (down 3.75 million lots), open interest 29.02 million lots (up 0.89 million lots) [3] - Aluminum (AL2512): Latest price 21,315, up 60 (0.28%), volume 15.18 million lots (down 3.57 million lots), open interest 28.33 million lots (down 0.25 million lots) [3] - Other metals follow a similar pattern of presenting price, volume, and open - interest changes [3] Group 3: Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Copper: Volume PCR 0.38 (down 0.10), open - interest PCR 0.75 (down 0.01) [4] - Aluminum: Volume PCR 0.37 (up 0.02), open - interest PCR 0.72 (down 0.03) [4] - Other metals also have corresponding PCR values and their changes presented [4] Group 4: Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Copper: Pressure point 90,000, support point 82,000 [5] - Aluminum: Pressure point 21,800, support point 19,900 [5] - Other metals have their respective pressure and support levels indicated [5] Group 5: Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Copper: At - the - money implied volatility 23.24%, weighted implied volatility 25.06% (up 2.16%) [6] - Aluminum: At - the - money implied volatility 12.08%, weighted implied volatility 14.11% (up 1.07%) [6] - Other metals show different implied - volatility data [6] Group 6: Strategy and Recommendations for Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Fundamental analysis: Total inventory of three major exchanges decreased by 0.4 million tons [7] - Market analysis: Bullish high - level consolidation and oscillation [7] - Option factor research: Implied volatility above historical average, open - interest PCR around 0.80, pressure point 90,000, support point 82,000 [7] - Strategy suggestions: Construct a bull - spread combination strategy for call options and a short - volatility option combination strategy for sellers, and a spot long - hedging strategy [7] Aluminum - Fundamental analysis: Inventory decreased last week [9] - Market analysis: Bullish high - level oscillation [9] - Option factor research: Implied volatility at historical average, open - interest PCR below 0.90, pressure point 21,800, support point 19,900 [9] - Strategy suggestions: Construct a bull - spread combination strategy for call options, a short - volatility option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9] Other non - ferrous metals (zinc, nickel, tin, etc.) follow a similar structure of analysis and strategy recommendations [9][10] Group 7: Strategy and Recommendations for Precious Metals Gold - Fundamental analysis: US CPI data lower than expected [12] - Market analysis: Bullish trend with a sharp decline recently [12] - Option factor research: Implied volatility at a high historical level, open - interest PCR at 1.00, pressure point 1000, support point 856 [12] - Strategy suggestions: Construct a neutral short - volatility option seller combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy [12] Group 8: Strategy and Recommendations for the Black Series Rebar - Fundamental analysis: Inventory decreased last week [13] - Market analysis: Bearish trend with pressure from above [13] - Option factor research: Implied volatility below historical average, open - interest PCR below 0.60, pressure point 3700, support point 3000 [13] - Strategy suggestions: Construct a short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - covered call strategy [13] Other black - series metals (iron ore, ferroalloys, etc.) have their own analysis and strategy suggestions [13][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a high - level volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks all performing in this way [2]. - The implied volatility of financial options has decreased but remains at a relatively high level of fluctuation [2]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a bullish buyer strategy and a bull spread strategy for call options; for index options, it is suitable to construct a bullish seller strategy, a bull spread strategy for call options, and an arbitrage strategy between synthetic long futures of options and short futures [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Important Indexes - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,988.22, down 0.22% with a trading volume of 940.8 billion yuan and a volume change of - 102.6 billion yuan [3]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,430.10, down 0.44% with a trading volume of 1207.1 billion yuan and a volume change of - 896 billion yuan [3]. - Other important indexes such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 also showed different degrees of decline [3]. 3.2 Option - based ETF Market - The SSE 50 ETF closed at 3.196, down 0.62% with a trading volume of 784.30 million shares and a trading volume change of - 5.29 billion yuan [4]. - Other ETFs like the SSE 300 ETF, SSE 500 ETF, etc., also had corresponding price and volume changes [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Volume and Position PCR - For the SSE 50 ETF option, the trading volume PCR was 0.93 with a change of 0.30, and the position PCR was 0.99 with a change of - 0.01 [5]. - Different option varieties had different volume and position PCR values and changes, which can be used to judge the market turning point and the strength of the underlying asset [5][6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Points - The pressure point of the SSE 50 ETF was 3.20 and the support point was 3.10 [7]. - Other option varieties also had corresponding pressure and support points, which can be seen from the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options [7][8]. 3.5 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility of the SSE 50 ETF option was 15.32%, and the weighted implied volatility was 15.47% with a change of - 0.42% [9]. - Different option varieties had different implied volatility levels and changes, which can reflect the market's expectation of future price fluctuations [9][10]. 3.6 Strategy and Suggestions - The financial option sector is divided into large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - sized boards, and the ChiNext board. Each board has corresponding option varieties [11]. - For the financial stock board (SSE 50 ETF, SSE 50), it is recommended to construct a short - volatility seller - biased long - position combination strategy and a spot long - position covered call strategy [12]. - For other boards such as the large - cap blue - chip board, small - and medium - sized board, and ChiNext board, corresponding option strategies are also provided according to the underlying asset market analysis, option factor research [12][13][14].