上海银行股份有限公司 公开发行 A 股可转换公司债券 定期跟踪评级报告 项目负责人： 项目组成员： 评级总监： 联系电话： (021) 63501349 联系地址：上海市黄浦区汉口路 398 号华盛大厦 14 层 上海新世纪资信评估投资服务有限公司 Shanghai Brilliance Credit Rating & Investors Service Co., Ltd. 公司网站：www.shxsj.com 评级声明 除因本次评级事项使本评级机构与评级对象构成委托关系外，本评级机构、评级人员与评级对象不存在 任何影 响评级行为独立、客观、公正的关联关系。 本评级机构与评级人员履行了调查和诚信义务，所出具的评级报告遵循了真实、客观、公正的原则。 本报告的评级结论是本评级机构依据合理的内部信用评级标准和程序做出的独立判断，未因评级对象和 其他任 何组织或个人的不当影响改变评级意见。 本次跟踪评级依据评级对象及其相关方提供或已经正式对外公布的信息，相关信息的真实性、准确性和 完整性 由资料提供方或发布方负责。本评级机构合理采信其他专业机构出具的专业意见，但不对专业机构出具 的专业 意见承担任何责任。 本报告并非 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss government has announced that capital adequacy measures will increase UBS Group's capital requirements by up to $18 billion [1] Group 1 - The capital adequacy measures are aimed at strengthening the financial stability of UBS Group [1] - The increase in capital requirements is significant, potentially impacting UBS's financial strategies and operations [1] - The measures reflect ongoing regulatory efforts to ensure that major financial institutions maintain robust capital buffers [1]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (maintained rating) [7] Core Viewpoints - In Q1 2025, commercial banks' net profit growth year-on-year was -2.32%, a decrease of 4 basis points compared to the end of 2024, although the profitability of state-owned banks and urban/rural commercial banks showed improvement [12][10] - The asset expansion of commercial banks remained stable, with total assets growing by 7.20% year-on-year in Q1 2025, slightly slowing down by 3 basis points compared to the end of last year [2][17] - The net interest margin (NIM) for commercial banks was recorded at 1.43% in Q1 2025, down 9 basis points from the end of 2024, with expectations for stabilization in Q2 2025 due to new monetary policy measures [3][20] - Asset quality remained robust, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.51% in Q1 2025, a slight increase of 1 basis point from the end of 2024, and a provision coverage ratio of 208%, indicating ample buffer above the regulatory requirement [4][23] - The capital adequacy ratios for commercial banks showed a decline, with the overall capital adequacy ratio at 15.28%, down 45 basis points from the previous quarter, indicating increased capital consumption due to credit expansion [5][26] Summary by Sections 1. Profitability - In Q1 2025, commercial banks' net profit totaled 656.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 200 million yuan, with state-owned banks showing a profit increase of 15.8 billion yuan [12][10] 2. Asset Expansion and Credit Performance - Total assets of commercial banks reached approximately 394 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.20% in Q1 2025 [17] - The loan balance increased by 9.11 trillion yuan in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.33% [18] 3. Net Interest Margin - The NIM for state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, urban commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 1.33%, 1.56%, 1.37%, and 1.58% respectively, with expectations for stabilization in Q2 2025 [20][21] 4. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio for state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, urban commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 1.22%, 1.23%, 1.79%, and 2.86% respectively, indicating overall stable asset quality [23] 5. Capital Adequacy - The risk-weighted assets of commercial banks reached 214 trillion yuan, with capital adequacy ratios showing a decline across various types of banks [26][5]

Core Insights - The banking industry in China is showing a trend of "stable growth, structural adjustment, and risk control" as of Q1 2025, with total assets reaching 458.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [1][2] Asset Quality - The total non-performing loan (NPL) balance increased to 3.4 trillion yuan, up by 157.4 billion yuan from the previous quarter, resulting in a non-performing loan ratio of 1.51%, which is a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points [1][7] - Despite the rise in NPLs, the proportion of special mention loans decreased to 2.18%, indicating a reduction in potential risk loans [8] Regulatory Indicators - Key regulatory indicators such as capital adequacy ratio and provision coverage ratio remain strong, with the capital adequacy ratio at 15.28% and the provision coverage ratio at 208.13% [1][8] - The banking sector's risk resilience is further supported by a decrease in the NPL ratio by approximately 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, alongside a 10 percentage point increase in provision coverage ratio [8] Loan Growth and Focus Areas - The banking sector has shown significant growth in loans to small and micro enterprises, with a balance of 35.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.5% [2][3] - Loans in key areas such as technology SMEs and green finance continue to grow at rates higher than the overall loan growth, with growth rates of 12.2% and 9.3% respectively [3] Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin (NIM) for commercial banks has continued to decline, reaching a historical low of 1.43% in Q1 2025, although the year-on-year decline has narrowed compared to previous periods [4][5] - The decline in NIM is attributed to pressures from lower loan pricing and insufficient credit demand, but improvements in liability management have helped mitigate some of these pressures [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating a projected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The banking sector demonstrates strong resilience in fundamentals, with stable profitability and asset quality. In Q1 2025, commercial banks achieved a net profit of 656.8 billion, with a year-on-year profit growth decline of 2.3% [4][5]. - The report highlights that the decline in profit growth is consistent with the previous year, with non-interest income contributing 25% to total revenue, an increase of 2.5 percentage points compared to 2024 [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the stability of asset quality, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.51%, slightly up by 1 basis point from the end of the previous year [23][24]. Summary by Sections Profitability and Revenue - In Q1 2025, the profitability of commercial banks decreased by 2.3%, with state-owned banks showing a profit growth of 0.1%, while joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks experienced declines of 4.5%, 6.7%, and 2% respectively [5][7]. - The report notes that the net interest margin (NIM) narrowed to 1.43%, down 9 basis points year-on-year, with state-owned banks having a NIM of 1.33% [15][18]. Credit and Asset Quality - The report indicates that credit issuance remains strong, with total assets of commercial banks growing at a rate of 7.2% year-on-year. New loans and non-credit assets increased by 9.1 trillion and 4.6 trillion respectively [8][9]. - The NPL ratio remains stable at 1.51%, with a provision coverage ratio above 200%, indicating a robust capacity to absorb potential losses [23][24]. Capital Adequacy - As of Q1 2025, the risk-weighted assets (RWA) of commercial banks grew by 6.4%, leading to a slight decline in capital adequacy ratios across various bank types [29][30]. - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio for commercial banks stands at 10.7%, reflecting a decrease from the previous year [29]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on banks with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields, particularly large state-owned banks, which exhibit solid investment value due to their high dividend rates [31][44]. - It also highlights the potential of mid-sized banks with convertible bonds, which have shown strong performance recently [44][46].

Core Insights - The banking sector in China shows growth in total assets and financial services, with total assets reaching 458.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [1] - The balance of inclusive loans to small and micro enterprises reached 35.3 trillion yuan, growing by 12.5% year-on-year, while inclusive agricultural loans increased to 13.7 trillion yuan, up by 795.5 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [1] - The overall asset quality of commercial banks remains stable, but there is an increase in non-performing loans (NPLs) and NPL ratios, with NPLs rising to 3.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 157.4 billion yuan from the previous quarter, and an NPL ratio of 1.51%, up by 0.01 percentage points [1] Regulatory Indicators - The banking capital adequacy ratio and insurance solvency ratio are stable and improving, with the NPL ratio decreasing by approximately 0.1 percentage points year-on-year and the provision coverage ratio increasing by about 10 percentage points [2] - In the first quarter, commercial banks achieved a net profit of 656.8 billion yuan, with both average capital return on equity and average asset return on equity rising, although the net interest margin has narrowed [2] Profit Growth Strategies - To alleviate profit growth pressure, banks should optimize their business structure, enhance investment banking and wealth management, and improve non-interest income ratios [3] - Banks are advised to implement refined pricing management and strengthen risk control to lower credit costs, with the current provision coverage ratio at 208.13% providing a buffer against margin pressure [3] Capital Adequacy - As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the capital adequacy ratio for commercial banks (excluding foreign bank branches) was 15.28%, with a tier one capital adequacy ratio of 12.18% and a core tier one capital adequacy ratio of 10.70%, all within reasonable ranges but showing a slight decline from the previous quarter [3] - The decline in capital adequacy ratios is attributed to rapid asset expansion, an increase in NPLs, and slowing profit growth, indicating a growing balance pressure between credit expansion and risk resistance [3] Capital Supplementation - Banks are encouraged to actively respond to the pressure of declining capital adequacy ratios by solidifying their capital base, utilizing various channels for capital replenishment, including issuing ordinary shares, preferred shares, and convertible bonds [4] - The Ministry of Finance has announced the issuance of 500 billion yuan in special government bonds to support major banks in replenishing core tier one capital [4] - Banks should enhance internal capital accumulation by improving profitability and optimizing asset structures to focus on high-quality asset investments while reducing high-risk, low-efficiency assets [4][5]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - In the first quarter of 2025, commercial banks achieved a cumulative net profit of 656.8 billion yuan, indicating a positive financial performance in the banking sector [1]. Financial Performance - The average return on equity (ROE) for commercial banks was 8.82%, an increase of 0.72 percentage points from the previous quarter [1]. - The average return on assets (ROA) stood at 0.68%, rising by 0.05 percentage points compared to the last quarter [1]. Loan Loss Provisions - As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the balance of loan loss provisions for commercial banks was 7.2 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 227.3 billion yuan from the previous quarter [1]. - The provision coverage ratio was 208.13%, showing a decrease of 3.06 percentage points from the last quarter [1]. - The loan provision ratio was 3.15%, down by 0.03 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1]. Capital Adequacy - The capital adequacy ratio for commercial banks (excluding foreign bank branches) was 15.28% at the end of the first quarter of 2025 [1]. - The Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 12.18%, while the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 10.70% [1].

Core Insights - The Commonwealth Bank of Australia reported an unaudited statutory net profit of AUD 2.6 billion for the third quarter [1] - The unaudited cash net profit for the third quarter was also approximately AUD 2.6 billion [1] - The Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio for the third quarter stood at 11.9% [1]

Group 1: Investor Relations Activities - The investor relations activity was held on May 12, 2025, from 15:00 to 17:00 via an online platform [2] - Participants included the board secretary Ms. Zhang Qiaowen and the general manager of the planning and finance department Mr. Li Zhenguo [2] Group 2: Dividend Policy and Shareholder Returns - The bank has maintained an average cash dividend payout ratio of over 33% over the past five years, exceeding the industry average [2] - The total cash dividend amount has consistently been 931 million CNY over the last four years, marking the highest annual dividend in the bank's history [2] - The company’s articles of association stipulate that at least 20% of the distributable profit should be allocated to common shareholders annually [2] Group 3: Capital Adequacy and Financial Strategy - As of the end of Q1 2025, the bank's core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio stood at 8.96% [3] - The bank has focused on capital-intensive and refined management to improve capital efficiency and achieve better net profit growth [3] - There is still room for improvement in the bank's core Tier 1 capital adequacy level, necessitating continued support for the real economy [3] - The bank aims to establish a stable, timely, and sustainable investment return mechanism while rationally planning the frequency and proportion of cash dividends [3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the banking industry as "Outperforming the Market" [7]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the total operating revenue of 42 listed banks was 1.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.72%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 563.98 billion yuan, down 1.20% year-on-year [2][15]. - Investment income saw rapid growth, accounting for a significant portion of revenue. In Q1 2025, interest income, commission income, and investment income were 1.02 trillion yuan (down 1.65% YoY), 230 billion yuan (down 0.72% YoY), and 170 billion yuan (up 26.10% YoY), respectively [2][15]. - The reduction in provision for asset impairment losses helped to release profits, with total asset impairment losses at 347.13 billion yuan, down 2.37% YoY [2][15]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The operating revenue of listed banks decreased by 1.72% YoY, while net profit fell by 1.20% YoY, indicating a slight decline in overall profitability [2][15]. - Investment income increased significantly, contributing 11.62% to total revenue, up 2.56 percentage points from the previous year [2][15]. Loan and Deposit Growth - As of the end of Q1 2025, the total loan and advance amount reached 174.13 trillion yuan, growing by 7.92% YoY, with a slight deceleration in growth rate [3]. - The deposit scale also showed improvement, with a total of 212.38 trillion yuan, reflecting a 6.21% YoY increase [4]. Interest Margin and Asset Quality - The average net interest margin for listed banks was 1.55%, with a year-on-year decline of 0.09 percentage points, although the rate of decline has narrowed [5]. - The average non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.16%, while the provision coverage ratio decreased by 7.87 percentage points [5]. Capital Adequacy - As of the end of Q1 2025, the average core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 10.35%, showing a slight decline from the previous year [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the core factors supporting the stable performance of the banking sector in 2024 and Q1 2025 include increased investment income and reduced provision for losses, indicating resilience in sector profits. Recommended stocks include Chongqing Bank, Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank, Shanghai Bank, and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank [6].