2025 年四季度以来，平安银行零售业务的修复趋势如何？ 中国平安 20260110 摘要 平安银行持续调整信贷结构，重心从高收益高风险资产转向中收益资产， 零售端尤为明显，消费贷和信用卡利率下降，按揭贷款利率相对稳定， 整体收益率呈现缓慢下降趋势。 平安银行大力控制存款成本，压降高成本存款，提高活期存款比例，改 善存款结构。预计 2026 年理财需求稳步恢复，对资本市场活动持乐观 态度，全年贷款增速小幅提升，但整体保持稳健。 平安银行预计 2026 年贷款收益仍有下行压力，但通过优化负债端成本 可实现边际企稳，希望 2026 年息差水平相比 2025 年降幅收窄。新发 放贷款利率可能小幅下行。 平安银行按揭贷款 LTAV 保持在较低水平，抵押物充足，资产质量控制 力较强。消费贷和信用卡风险已大力出清，中收益资产投放有助于控制 零售客户风险。 平安银行预计 2026 年信用成本将保持稳定，拨备覆盖率基本稳定，维 持充足的拨贷比，为后续风险处置留有余量，从而进一步稳定经营。 Q&A 平安银行在 2026 年的信贷投放和资产布局有哪些变化和安排？ 2026 年初，平安银行的信贷投放计划尚未有明确的数据目标，但整体 ...

对话 2026 年关键词：金融地产篇 20251224 摘要 非银金融板块，尤其是线上保险和券商，在未来一年内相较于银行更具 增长潜力。线上保险受益于权益仓位占比提升，若股市走牛，投资端收 益将显著增强；居民资产配置调整也利好保险的稳健收益产品。 保险公司 H 股修复明显，A 股滞后，预计 2026 年基本面将进一步改善。 险种结构优化，新险种如商保、医保数据探索和分红型重疾险有望带来 增量，同时报行合一推进提升保单利润率。 券商在跨年行情中表现良好，春季躁动期间胜率高。尽管今年 A 股券商 表现不佳，但业绩持续释放和市场活跃度提升未充分定价，使其具备超 额收益潜力。 2026 年银行业策略关注息差和资产增速。房地产政策影响下，银行量 价将呈现均衡格局，息差成为核心营收增长关键。贷款定价有望触底回 升，存款利率调降推动息差 L 型筑底。 预计 2026 年信贷增量持平或略低于 2025 年，社融增速和信贷增速剪 刀差延续。存款利率下行，信贷扩张放缓，存贷增速维持紧平衡。核心 营收预计小幅增长，非息收入是关键扰动因素。 Q&A 2026 年金融板块的投资机会和风险如何？ 在 2026 年，金融板块可能成为推动指 ...

2026 年银行股投资策略展望 20251208 摘要 预计 2026 年中国宏观经济增速约为 4.8%，货币环境保持适度宽松， 存在降息空间，这将有助于缓解商业银行的息差压力。 预测 2026 年商业银行营收和利润增速将提升至 2.7%-3%左右，主要 受益于息差降幅收窄和利息净收入恢复正增长，但金融市场波动可能带 来一定负面影响。 国有银行和城商行扩表动能依然强劲，总资产增速维持在 10%以上，尤 其是在川渝、山东、上海等经济大省，区域性城商行扩表具备较好支撑。 中小型银行息差韧性优于大型国有行，部分优质城商行如南京银行、成 都银行、重庆银行等，凭借较强的贷款组织能力和资本充足率，业绩增 速有望跑赢整体上市银行。 预计 2026 年非信贷收入将呈现负增长，但手续费收入受益于资本市场 发展和减费影响消退，将保持正增长，整体营收增速预计将从 2025 年 的 1.2%提升至接近 3%。 信用成本率预计明年略微下降，对公业务延续改善趋势，但零售领域仍 面临压力，房地产市场企稳是关键。政府化债和风险化解有助于企业对 公资产质量保持健康。 当前银行股主动筹码处于历史低位，公募持股比例仅占 1.5%，为十年 新低，意 ...

邮储银行 20251128 摘要 邮储银行坚持零售业务根本战略，未来五年将深耕强县富镇市场，强调 业务均衡发展，并着力提升城市业务、网点效能和手机银行服务，同时 推进五大行动和七大改革，以提升服务质效和风险管控能力。 预计 2026 年总资产增速平稳，信贷增量与 2025 年相当，保持稳健态 势，同时注重量价险平衡和资本回报。前三季度对公贷款增量显著高于 零售贷款，未来信贷投放比例和结构将视市场需求恢复情况而定。 邮储银行三季度不良率为 0.94%，处于行业优秀水平。零售领域资产质 量面临压力，但消费类贷款不良率有所改善，经营贷不良生成保持稳定， 未来改善趋势仍需观察，宏观经济复苏是关键。 邮储银行存款和负债成本处于行业低位，前三季度息差为 1.68%，同比 下降 19 个 BP，但降幅趋缓。在政策支持和行业共识下，对未来息差走 势持积极态度，已叫停高息高返车贷等业务。 邮储银行将重点提升对公客户综合服务能力，尤其是在产业园区、城市 更新等新兴领域。通过机构改革，将人员从中后台向一线扩充，提高单 个网点产能，同时维持整体数量稳定。 Q&A 邮储银行在 2026 年的增长规划是什么？在"十五五"开局之年，邮储银 ...

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of October 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $33,433 billion, an increase of $47 billion from the end of September, representing a growth rate of 0.14% [1] Group 2: Gold Reserves - By the end of October, China's gold reserves reached 7.409 million ounces, with a month-on-month increase of 30,000 ounces, marking the 12th consecutive month of gold accumulation [2] - The steady increase in gold reserves indicates the central bank's strategic positioning of gold as a reserve asset, enhancing long-term support for gold prices [2] Group 3: Banking Sector Adjustments - A bank in Inner Mongolia has announced the cancellation of its five-year fixed deposit product, reflecting a broader industry trend to lower deposit rates and reduce funding costs [3] - The bank continues to offer shorter-term deposit products with rates ranging from 1.10% to 1.85% for three months to three years [3] Group 4: Gold Tax Regulations - Following the implementation of new gold tax regulations, banks have reported stable prices and sufficient supply of investment gold bars, indicating minimal impact from the new rules [4] - The regulations distinguish between investment and non-investment gold, with investment gold bars purchased from banks remaining largely unaffected [4] Group 5: New Bank Establishment - The establishment of Xinjiang Rural Commercial Bank has been approved, marking a significant step in the unified legal person reform of rural financial institutions in Xinjiang [5] - This will be the sixth provincial-level unified legal person rural commercial bank in the country and the first in the northwest region [5]

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Bank's Q3 2025 report shows a slight decline in quarterly revenue, contrasting with overall growth in the first three quarters, highlighting challenges in non-interest income and management adjustments [1][2][6]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Qingdao Bank reported revenue of 3.35 billion yuan, a minor decrease of 0.22% year-on-year, while the first three quarters saw total revenue of 11.01 billion yuan, up 5.03% [4][6]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 927.18 million yuan, an increase of 13.90%, with a year-to-date net profit of 3.99 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.54% rise [4][8]. - The bank's interest income reached 17.22 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 5.89%, while interest expenses decreased by 2.83 billion yuan [8]. Non-Interest Income Challenges - Non-interest income for the first three quarters was 2.87 billion yuan, down 10.72% year-on-year, primarily due to declines in investment income and fees from wealth management [7][8]. - The bank's reliance on non-interest income from bond markets and wealth management exposes it to market fluctuations, indicating a need for diversification in revenue sources [7][8]. Asset Quality and Capital Adequacy - As of September 30, 2025, the non-performing loan ratio was 1.10%, down 0.04 percentage points from the previous year, with a provision coverage ratio of 269.97%, up 28.65 percentage points [9][10]. - The capital adequacy ratio stood at 13.14%, below the industry average of approximately 15.8%, indicating a need for capital strengthening [12][13]. Shareholder and Management Changes - Qingdao Guoxin Group plans to increase its stake in Qingdao Bank to 19.99%, enhancing state-owned capital's influence in governance [13][14]. - Recent management changes include key personnel shifts across the bank's headquarters and branches, aimed at revitalizing operations and addressing challenges in non-interest income [13][14][15]. Wealth Management Performance - Qingyin Wealth Management has faced declining performance, with assets under management dropping from 2,081.22 billion yuan in 2023 to below 2,000 billion yuan in 2024, and a significant decrease in revenue and net profit [16].

Core Viewpoint - 中信银行在2025年第三季度的营收同比下降3.5%，但归母净利润同比增长3.0，显示出在收入压力下的利润韧性 [1] Revenue Summary - 营收增速略有下行，手续费收入增速回升至5.7%，其他非息收入增速下降至-17.0% [1][2] - 前三季度净利息收入同比下降2.1%，主要受规模因素影响 [1] Profit Summary - 前三季度净利润同比增长3.0%，息差、手续费和税收的贡献边际提升 [1] - 单季净利息收入环比增长2.75%，单季年化净息差环比回升5个基点至1.63% [1] Asset and Liability Summary - 2025年第三季度信贷单季减少194.19亿，同比少增575.57亿 [1] - 存款在第三季度单季减少395.78亿，同比少增1340.19亿，存款占比计息负债比重下降至68.7% [1] Non-Interest Income Summary - 净非利息收入同比下降6.4%，其中手续费收入增速修复至5.7% [2] - 其他非息收入增速为-17.0% [2] Asset Quality Summary - 不良率保持稳健，前三季度累计不良生成1.15%，不良率为1.16% [2] - 拨备覆盖率为204.16%，环比下降3.37个百分点 [2] Investment Recommendation - 公司2025E、2026E、2027E PB分别为0.59X、0.55X、0.52X，建议持续关注其在财富管理、综合融资等领域的实施情况 [2]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [3] Core Views - The performance of listed banks in Q1-Q3 2025 shows resilience, with state-owned banks achieving positive results across the board, and the improvement in net interest margins for joint-stock and city commercial banks exceeding expectations [4] - The revenue growth rate for listed banks is stable at 0.9% year-on-year, while profit growth has increased to 1.6% [4] - The non-interest income growth rate for listed banks has narrowed, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [4] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - Listed banks' revenue growth is stable at 0.9%, and net profit growth has improved to 1.6% in Q1-Q3 2025, slightly slowing from H1 [4] - The net interest margin for listed banks has shown marginal improvement, with a quarterly increase of 0.3 basis points to 1.37% [4] Revenue and Profit Drivers - The asset scale growth for listed banks is 9.3% year-on-year, with a decrease in loan growth to 7.7% and an increase in financial investment growth to 15.8% [4][11] - The non-interest income growth rate has decreased by 2.0 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [4] Risk and Asset Quality - The average non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for 42 sample banks remains stable at 1.23%, while the average attention rate has increased by 2 basis points to 1.69% [5] - Retail loan risks continue to rise, with notable increases in NPL ratios for retail loans at certain banks [5] Dividend Trends - More banks have disclosed mid-term dividend plans for 2025, with some banks increasing their mid-term dividend rates compared to 2024 [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that bank stocks may rebound in Q4, with a focus on small and medium-sized banks in economically developed regions and stable high-dividend large banks [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company continues to show a positive operational trend with a narrowing revenue decline and stable profit growth, supported by a recovery in interest margins and improved generation [1][2] - The company reported a year-on-year revenue decline of 1.8% and a slight increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.1% for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating performance in line with expectations [1][5] - The company has announced its first interim dividend of 30.02%, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio, reflecting its value characteristics [3] Revenue and Profit Overview - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders showed a year-on-year decline of 1.8% and an increase of 0.1%, respectively, with the revenue decline narrowing compared to the first half of 2025 [1][12] - The interest margin for Q3 2025 increased by 4 basis points to 1.55%, primarily due to a significant improvement in funding costs [2] - Non-interest income grew by 3.8% year-on-year, benefiting from a recovery in capital markets and a solid customer base [1] Asset Quality and Risk Indicators - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.08% as of the end of Q3 2025, with a slight increase in the attention loan ratio to 1.67% [4] - The provision coverage ratio decreased by 1 percentage point to 228%, indicating a stable asset quality [4] - The company reported a significant improvement in the generation of non-performing loans, with a year-on-year decline in new non-performing loans in corporate real estate and credit cards [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit growth rates for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 0.22%, 5.05%, and 5.39%, respectively, with corresponding book values per share of 38.92, 41.49, and 44.21 yuan [5][12] - The target price is set at 25.82 yuan per share, implying a potential upside of 28% based on the current price [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue and a positive turnaround in net profit for Q3 2025, indicating stable growth in lending and a supportive liability structure for interest margins [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue increased by 0.7% year-on-year, compared to a 0.8% increase in H1 2025 [1] - Q3 2025 net profit rose by 1.1% year-on-year, contrasting with a 0.9% decline in H1 2025 [1] - The annualized net interest margin for Q3 2025 increased by 2 basis points to 1.24% [1] - Annualized asset yield decreased by 9 basis points to 2.76%, while the cost of interest-bearing liabilities fell by 11 basis points to 1.67% [1] Loan and Deposit Growth - Interest-earning assets grew by 10.3% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with loans increasing by 8.9% [1] - Corporate loans (including bills) rose by 12.6%, while retail loans grew by 1.2% [1] - Interest-bearing liabilities increased by 10.1% year-on-year, with deposits up by 8.3% [1] Credit Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.24% in Q3 2025 [2] - The NPL generation rate increased by 7 basis points year-on-year to 0.54% [2] - The provision coverage ratio decreased by 79 basis points to 196.6%, with the loan-to-provision ratio at 2.43% [2] Sector Performance - In H1 2025, corporate credit showed good growth in public finance and manufacturing, while retail maintained positive growth [1] - The NPL ratio for corporate loans decreased by 6 basis points to 1.18%, while the retail NPL ratio increased by 16 basis points to 1.02% [2][3] Capital Adequacy - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio increased by 1 basis point to 12.58% [3] Investment Recommendation - The company is recommended for stable growth, with projected price-to-book ratios of 0.71X, 0.62X, and 0.58X for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, and price-to-earnings ratios of 7.45X, 6.66X, and 6.57X [3] - The company is characterized as a state-owned bank with stable operations and asset quality, presenting a high margin of safety in valuation and high dividend yield [3]