周末特朗普关税威胁再起，今日资金面偏松，股债震荡。 早盘债市情绪偏积极，10Y国债利率微幅低开在1.6875%后最低下至1.682%附近。股市震荡，利率亦在 1.685%附近震荡。尾盘路透消息：总理表示还在研究储备新政策工具包括超常规措施，利率小幅回升 至1.69%附近。 为什么历经风雨也不一定做好？因为老手总是回头看过去，总是拿着过去的经验与现在做对比，却忘了 金融市场唯一不变的就是变。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250526— 一年定存 30年降10%（+周末特朗普关税威胁再起+资金面均衡偏松=涨跌互现)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率涨跌不一。 央行公开市场开展3820亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1350亿元逆回购到期，净投放2470亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金价格平稳，DR001在1.51%附近，DR007在1.65%附近。 今天看到一组"反直觉"的数据： 1、定存利率不断下降：以一年期定存利率为例，自1996年以来，从10.98%降至0.95%； | | 年期定存利率回忆录 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 年度 | 利率 | 万元利息 | | 1996 | 10.98% | 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The yield on India's 10-year government bonds has increased by 3 basis points to 6.28%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and potential implications for borrowing costs and economic outlook [1] Group 1: Government Actions - The Reserve Bank of India announced it will pay the government a dividend of 2.69 trillion rupees, which is lower than market expectations, potentially affecting government funding and fiscal policy [1]

日本40年期国债收益率下行7个基点至3.48%；30年期国债收益率下行7个基点至2.995%。 ...

日本40年期国债收益率下跌7个基点至3.48%。 ...

智通财经5月26日电，日本40年期国债收益率下跌7个基点至3.48%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing volatility in the overseas bond market, particularly with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassing 5% and Japan's bond yields rising due to weak auction results [1][2] - The U.S. bond market is facing multiple negative factors, including a downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's, concerns over the fiscal deficit, and weak demand for U.S. Treasuries, which are pushing long-term yields higher [2][3] - Japan's bond yields are also rising sharply due to a significant imbalance in supply and demand, exacerbated by fiscal expansion and a relatively tight monetary policy from the Bank of Japan [2][3] Group 2 - In contrast to the overseas markets, China's bond market remains stable, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating within a narrow range of 1.68% to 1.72% [3][4] - The People's Bank of China has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy to support liquidity, including a recent reserve requirement ratio cut and substantial medium-term lending facility operations [3][4] - Analysts expect the Chinese bond market to continue its narrow fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to remain between 1.65% and 1.70% in the short term [4]

Core Viewpoint - The German bond market experienced a decline in yields across various maturities, influenced by geopolitical tensions and market reactions to U.S. trade policies [1] Group 1: Yield Movements - The yield on the 10-year German government bond fell by 7.6 basis points to 2.567%, with a total decline of 2.3 basis points for the week [1] - The 2-year German bond yield decreased by 6.7 basis points to 1.764%, accumulating a total drop of 9.1 basis points over the week [1] - The 30-year German bond yield dropped by 6.3 basis points to 3.088%, with a total increase of 4.8 basis points for the week [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The significant drop in yields on May 23 was triggered by new tariff threats from U.S. President Trump against the EU, leading to a sharp decline in the 2-year yield to 1.707% [1] - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year German bonds decreased by 0.910 basis points to +80.041 basis points, reflecting a cumulative increase of 6.839 basis points for the week [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, indicated that adjustments to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) are very close, with potential changes expected in the summer [1] - Adjustments to the SLR may impact Treasury yields [1] Group 1 - The potential change in SLR is anticipated to occur during the summer [1] - The adjustment of SLR could have implications for the yield on U.S. government bonds [1]

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) by U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen may lead to a decrease in government bond yields by several basis points [1] Group 1 - The potential impact of SLR adjustments on government bond yields is significant, suggesting a downward trend [1]

Group 1 - Eurozone government bond yields continued to decline following Trump's announcement of tariff measures [1] - The yield on Germany's 10-year government bonds fell by 8.5 basis points to 2.55% [1]