Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing slight differentiation in performance, with economic data having minimal impact on market movements. The overall environment has not shown a significant turning point, leading to expectations of narrow fluctuations in the bond market in the short term [1][9]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.19% at 121.090, the 10-year main contract up 0.05% at 109.050, and the 5-year main contract up 0.03% at 106.160. The 2-year main contract remained flat at 102.464 [2]. - The yield on major interbank bonds generally rose slightly, with the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 0.25 basis points to 1.8635%, and the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.3 basis points to 1.646% [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.38 basis points to 4.401% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields, except for ultra-long maturities, generally increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 0.9 basis points to 1.498% [4]. Primary Market Activity - Gansu Province's local bond auction results showed bid multiples exceeding 26 times, with the 20-year bond yielding 2.04% and the 10-year bond yielding 1.74% [5]. - Jilin Province's local bond auction also had bid multiples over 26 times, with the 7-year bond yielding 1.65% [5]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 755 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 230 billion yuan for the day [6]. - Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate rising by 0.1 basis points to 1.313% and the 7-day rate increasing by 0.9 basis points to 1.464% [6]. Economic Indicators - June CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from four consecutive months of decline, while PPI fell by 3.6% year-on-year [7][8]. - The increase in CPI was primarily driven by a reduction in the decline of industrial consumer goods prices, which narrowed from a 1.0% drop to 0.5% [8]. Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted a certain degree of preemptive positioning in the bond market, with overall trading density decreasing compared to June. The market lacks short-term catalysts, and the potential for rate declines may be limited [9]. - Huatai Fixed Income suggested a slightly bullish outlook for the bond market, although the space for growth is limited due to low credit spreads [9].

澳新银行：新西兰企业信心增强，但实际经营状况仍疲软 巴克莱：美元计价资产风险溢价上升，美债收益率有望突破5% 【机构分析】 澳洲联邦银行表示，如果美国政府宣布更多贸易协议，澳元／美元将可能扩大前一周的涨势，并向下一 个阻力位0.6700迈进；如果有任何关于美国贸易谈判的负面消息传出，那么澳元／美元可能会经历一次 向下的调整，价格可能会测试支撑位大约在0.6428的位置。澳元的技术图形仍然显示为看涨。这一乐观 看法基于澳大利亚5月份的通胀数据温和，这使得市场预期澳储行在7月利率决议大概率会降息。根据掉 期交易的情况，市场对澳洲联储在下次会议上降息的预期概率为92%。 澳洲联邦银行：贸易协议与降息预期或推动澳元涨势 花旗：欧元区国债收益率息差展现弹性，市场稳定性增强 Pepperstone分析师表示，美元因市场对美联储独立性的担忧以及对美国政府债务水平的关注而面临压 力。特朗普总统的言论加剧了这些担忧，并可能对未来一段时间内美元的表现产生负面影响。 巴克莱季度宏观经济展望报告显示，今年上半年美元计价资产的风险溢价上升，归因于美国政策波动， 但美国国债收益率可能会突破5%，预计美元或利率出现螺旋式下跌的可能性极低。 ...

金十数据6月30日讯，花旗利率策略师在一份报告中表示，在最近的地缘政治紧张局势中，欧元区国债 收益率息差一直保持弹性，预计未来几个月将进一步收窄。他们表示："尽管在即将到来的7月9日关税 截止日期前，风险依然存在，但我们持积极态度，预计多数英国-德国国债的利差在年底前将收紧。"花 旗策略师预计，10年期西班牙-德国公债收益率差将从目前的64个基点收窄至50个基点。他们还预计， 10年期意大利国债与德国国债的收益率差将从89个基点收窄至75个基点。他们表示："这种观点得到了 德国上周宣布的财政刺激计划的支持。" 花旗：欧元区债券收益率差预计将在年底收窄 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is adopting a cautious approach to interest rate cuts due to high uncertainty and inflation risks, indicating potential challenges ahead [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes highlight a consensus on the risks of inflation, suggesting that rate cuts may be difficult [1] - The expectation for rate cuts has been pushed back to September or December due to concerns over consumer inflation driven by tariffs [1] Group 2: Global Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates by 25 basis points in April, with expectations for further cuts later in the year [1] - The Bank of England reduced its key rate to 4.25% in May, with market expectations for only one more cut by the end of the year [1] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise rates around July, following a recent increase to 0.5% [1] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The 5-year U.S. Treasury auction showed strong overseas demand, reaching a historical high [1] - The upcoming maturity of U.S. Treasury bonds, totaling $1.2 trillion and $1.46 trillion in June and July respectively, may lead to liquidity shocks [1] - Japan's 40-year bond auction saw a bidding ratio at its lowest since July 2024, although results were better than the previous week [1] Group 4: Precious Metals Investment Outlook - Due to the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks, precious metal prices may experience fluctuations, with potential for recovery after initial declines [1] - Investors are advised to consider long positions during market pullbacks, paying attention to support and resistance levels for various commodities [1]

欧元区国债收益率在特朗普宣布关税措施后继续下跌，德国10年期国债收益率日内下跌8.5个基点至 2.55%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight recovery on May 8, with government bond futures generally rising and interbank bond yields mostly falling by around 1 basis point, indicating a response to recent monetary policy support measures [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [7]. - The PBOC also lowered the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points, reducing the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [7]. Market Performance - On May 8, government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.26% to 120.430, and the 10-year main contract increasing by 0.17% to 109.060 [2]. - The interbank bond yields saw a general decline, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping by 0.5 basis points to 1.63% [2]. International Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 2.32 basis points to 4.2694% [3]. - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year government bonds also declined, with France's yield down by 6.4 basis points to 3.192% [3]. Institutional Insights - Institutions like CICC and Guosen Securities view the recent rate cuts as beneficial for the bond market, suggesting that short-term interest rates have more room to decline, which will also pull down long-term rates [8]. - The overall sentiment indicates that the recent monetary policy adjustments are seen as the beginning of a broader easing cycle rather than an end, with expectations for further declines in interest rates [8].