Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stated that it now seems unlikely that tariffs will lead to a significant economic downturn [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan's assessment indicates that current tariff levels are not expected to cause a major decline in the economy [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the July FOMC meeting, aligning with market expectations[2] - The statement shifted from "solid growth" to "moderated," indicating acknowledgment of economic slowdown[5] - Two officials voted against the decision, suggesting increased internal calls for rate cuts[5] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The expectation for a rate cut has been adjusted to one cut in Q4 2025 due to anticipated tariff increases and moderate inflation recovery[4] - Inflation is projected to rise to around 3.4% in early Q4, which may hinder rate cuts[18] - The labor market is expected to show limited decline, with unemployment rates remaining below 4.4% due to slowed immigration[18] Group 3: Market Reactions - Market perceptions shifted towards a hawkish stance, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping to 41.2%[25] - The US dollar index rose by 1.06% to 99.9684, while 10-year Treasury yields increased by 4.57 basis points to 4.368%[25] - Equity markets experienced a pullback following the FOMC meeting, indicating cautious investor sentiment[25]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stated that the yen's exchange rate has not significantly deviated from the central bank's expectations [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is monitoring the impact of tariffs through more concrete data [1]

Core Insights - The Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that Japan's private consumption is influenced by inflation rather than tariffs [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes that inflation is a significant factor affecting consumer behavior in Japan [1] - The focus on inflation suggests potential implications for monetary policy and economic growth in Japan [1] - The mention of tariffs indicates that they are not a primary concern for the current state of private consumption [1]

日本央行行长植田和男：日本并非处于有利或不利地位，但我们主要从关税带来的更高成本角度看待关 税的影响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, expressed the intention to review whether tariffs are affecting Japanese manufacturers and their wages [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is considering the impact of tariffs on the manufacturing sector [1] - There is a focus on how these tariffs may influence wage levels within Japanese manufacturing companies [1]

Economic Growth and Consumer Spending - The U.S. GDP for Q2 grew at an annualized rate of 3%, reversing the -0.5% contraction in Q1 and exceeding market expectations of 2.6% [2][3] - Key factors for the strong growth included a significant decline in imports and a faster increase in consumer spending, with net exports contributing 5 percentage points to GDP [3] - Consumer spending grew by 1.4%, slightly below the expected 1.5%, marking the slowest growth in two consecutive quarters [3] Inflation and Price Indices - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for Q2 showed an annualized quarter-on-quarter initial value of 2.5%, down from 3.5% but above the expected 2.3%, indicating a rebound in inflation [2][3] - The overall PCE price increased by 2.5% over the past 12 months, with core PCE rising by 2.7%, reflecting changes in price composition [5] Employment Data - The ADP employment report for July indicated an increase of 104,000 jobs, surpassing the expectation of 76,000, although still below last year's average levels [3][5] - The labor market remains cautious due to uncertainties surrounding tariff policies, leading to a generally weak demand for labor [3] Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to pause interest rate cuts during the July meeting, with Chairman Powell indicating that it is too early to predict a rate cut in September [4][5] - Powell noted that the current interest rate level is appropriate given the uncertainties surrounding tariffs and inflation [5] Currency and Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar index surged over 1% on July 31, approaching the 100 mark, while U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board [2][6] - The dollar's decline earlier in the year was attributed to weak economic data and concerns over a potential recession, but recent strong economic indicators have alleviated these fears [6][7] - The resolution of trade tensions and established tariff rates among developed economies have contributed to a more stable outlook for the dollar [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stated that potential inflation has not stagnated due to tariffs [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring inflation trends and their relationship with tariffs [1] - Ueda emphasized that the current economic conditions do not indicate a halt in inflationary pressures [1] - The central bank remains committed to its monetary policy framework despite external economic challenges [1]

#报告 高盛点评美国对巴西加征关税事件None (@None):None ...

金十数据7月31日讯，在距离其设定的周五最后期限仅剩一天之际，特朗普对盟友和对手同时抛出了一 系列关税协议和要求。其宣布对韩国进口商品征收15%的关税，税率与日本持平；同时，对印度进口商 品征收高达25%的惩罚性关税，并批评印度购买俄罗斯能源和武器。野村控股首席经济学家Rob Subbaraman表示，我们收到了大量细节，正应了那句老话：只见树木，不见森林。总体来看，特朗普基 本兑现了他的关税威胁。但目前这一切更像是噪音。法国外贸银行亚太区首席经济学家Alicia表示，这 些在最后关头强行推进的协议绝非好兆头。这种施压方式迫使各国匆忙达成协议以避免更高关税，但最 终可能给其经济带来更大代价。 特朗普关税大限临近，细节繁多但前景依旧不明 ...