Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Aluminum contract showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The main contract reached a high of 21,200, then dropped to 20,980 at the end of the session, a 0.12% decline from the previous day. The 10 - 11 spread turned to flat, and the import window closed. The spot import loss widened to around - 2,400 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly, but be cautious about chasing high prices due to the short - term suppression of downstream consumption by high prices [9] - The supply of northern bauxite is tight with relatively strong prices, while other regions remain stable. The resumption of some mines in Guinea puts pressure on imported bauxite prices. Alumina prices are falling, hovering around 2,850. The fundamentals are significantly oversupplied. Attention should be paid to the possible production cuts and maintenance of high - cost enterprises due to price drops [9] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of Shanghai Aluminum and is expected to oscillate strongly during the traditional peak season. In October, the domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains unchanged at a high level, and the Indonesian aluminum plant has been successfully put into operation, slightly increasing the overall supply. Demand is in the peak season. Although the actual performance of the terminal is poor, with the loose overseas liquidity and the increasing expectation of domestic stimulus policies, the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly [9] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract reached a high of 21,200 and then dropped to 20,980 at the end of the session, a 0.12% decline from the previous day. The 10 - 11 spread turned to flat, and the import window closed. The spot import loss widened to around - 2,400 yuan/ton [9] - **Fundamentals**: Northern bauxite supply is tight, and the resumption of some mines in Guinea affects imported bauxite prices. Alumina prices are falling due to oversupply. Cast aluminum alloy is in the peak season and is expected to oscillate strongly. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and the Indonesian plant's operation increases supply. Demand is in the peak season, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly, but be cautious about chasing high prices [9] Group 5: Industry News - A cooperation agreement on the management, operation, and maintenance of the mining road on the Darbilon Line was signed on October 3, 2025. Six mining companies in the Boké administrative region participated. The agreement allows the sharing of dedicated roads for mineral transportation, reducing production costs and environmental and social risks, and is expected to increase bauxite mining by over 50 million tons [10][11] - Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) is preparing for a potential IPO, with an estimated valuation of $10 - 15 billion. The IPO is expected to be one of the largest in the Middle East. Dubai and Abu Dhabi are competing for the listing location. EGA has overcome challenges such as US tariffs and plans to invest $4 billion in a smelter in Oklahoma [11] - The Japan Aluminum Can Recycling Association reported that the demand for aluminum cans in Japan in 2025 was about 2.091 billion, remaining the same as the previous year and staying at the 2 - billion - can level for 10 consecutive years [11]

Core Insights - Packaging regulation is tightening across Asia Pacific as governments implement measures to reduce waste, enhance recycling, and promote circular systems. The market in the region is projected to exceed USD 535 billion by 2025, with growth expected to outpace the global average [1] Recycled Content Requirements - Mandatory rules on recycled content are emerging, with India enforcing minimum levels of recycled plastic from 2025 and South Korea requiring 10% recycled content in PET bottles from 2026. Japan and China are encouraging voluntary adoption. Companies face challenges in securing stable post-consumer recycled (PCR) supplies and meeting food safety standards, leading many to pursue long-term contracts with recyclers [2] Material Innovation and Substitution - New packaging formats are being developed to comply with restrictions on hard-to-recycle plastics. Innovations such as fibre-based bottles, coated boards, and mono-material plastics are advancing as substitutes for multi-layer films and polystyrene. Compostable biopolymers are also entering the market, particularly in foodservice. Brands must balance compliance with performance and consumer acceptance when deciding on innovations to scale [3] Reusable and Refillable Systems - Several governments in Asia Pacific are promoting refill and reuse models as part of circular economy strategies. Singapore and Hong Kong are trialing refill stations, while India and Indonesia have community-led refill initiatives for household goods. Major brands are piloting refill pouches and returnable containers in urban centers, indicating a gradual shift towards reuse as a regulatory and consumer expectation [4] Deposit Return and Collection Schemes - Deposit return systems are gaining traction, with Singapore set to launch a scheme in 2026, following established models in South Korea, Australia, and Japan. These programs aim to increase recovery rates for PET bottles and aluminum cans, utilizing technology such as reverse vending machines and smart bins to enhance efficiency. Businesses must plan logistics and invest in consumer-facing infrastructure to participate [5] Extended Producer Responsibility - Many countries are embedding extended producer responsibility (EPR) into law, requiring producers to finance waste collection and recycling. South Korea's EPR framework is already established, while India and China are strengthening their own systems [6] Compliance and Industry Collaboration - Packaging executives must prepare for higher compliance costs and increased scrutiny of end-of-life management. There are also opportunities to shape future EPR schemes through industry collaboration [7]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team of Jianxin Futures [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - On the penultimate trading day before the holiday, with a quiet news front and decreased market trading enthusiasm, Shanghai Aluminum showed weak performance. The main 2511 contract closed with a slight 0.22% decline at 20,730. The spread between October and November changed from a discount to a premium of 15, and the far - month contracts maintained a slight contango structure. The import window was closed, and the spot import loss fluctuated around - 1,500 yuan/ton. It's recommended to wait and see before the holiday [7]. - The production of domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed, and the probability of resuming production this year is low. The price of imported ore is under short - term pressure, but with the end of the rainy season, the shipping volume will gradually increase. The alumina price fluctuates around 2,900. The supply surplus is difficult to ease for the time being. After October, some high - cost enterprises are expected to cut production and carry out maintenance as the monthly average price drops [7]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high. The operating rate of processing enterprises rebounded significantly last week but is likely to decline temporarily due to the upcoming long holiday. Shanghai Aluminum has returned to the previous trading range. Pay attention to the support level of 20,500. It's advisable to hold a light position during the holiday to control risks [7]. - The trend of cast aluminum alloy continues to follow Shanghai Aluminum. With the peak season and the tight supply of scrap aluminum raw materials, continue to pay attention to the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [7]. Group 4: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum market was weak on the penultimate trading day before the holiday. The main 2511 contract closed slightly down, the spread structure changed, and the import window was closed [7]. - **Bauxite Situation**: Domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed production, and the probability of resuming this year is low. Imported ore is under short - term pressure, but shipping volume will increase after the rainy season. Pay attention to the changes in mining rights policies before the Guinea election [7]. - **Alumina Situation**: Alumina price fluctuates around 2,900. Supply surplus is difficult to ease. After October, some high - cost enterprises may cut production and carry out maintenance [7]. - **Operational Suggestions**: It's recommended to wait and see before the holiday. Pay attention to the support level of 20,500 for Shanghai Aluminum and hold a light position during the holiday [7]. Group 5: Industry News - UAE's EGA is preparing for a potential IPO, with an estimated valuation of $10 - 15 billion. Dubai and Abu Dhabi are competing for this major listing project. EGA has overcome challenges such as US aluminum tariffs and plans to invest $4 billion in a smelter in Oklahoma [8][10]. - In 2025, the demand for aluminum cans in Japan was about 2.091 billion, remaining the same as the previous year and staying at the 2 - billion - can level for 10 consecutive years [9]. - On September 22, 2025, the standard warehouse receipt generation business of cast aluminum alloy futures was officially launched. The total registered volume of cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts on the first day was 3,878 tons, with different volumes in various regions [9].

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum Cans (06898) reported a mid-year performance for 2025, showing a revenue of approximately HKD 118 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.71% [1] - The profit attributable to the parent company was HKD 13.96 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.79% [1] - Basic earnings per share were reported at 1.5 HK cents [1] Summary by Categories Financial Performance - Revenue for the period was approximately HKD 118 million, down 1.71% compared to the previous year [1] - Profit attributable to the parent company decreased to HKD 13.96 million, a decline of 13.79% year-on-year [1] - Basic earnings per share stood at 1.5 HK cents [1] Market Conditions - The decline in net profit was primarily attributed to intensified competition in the domestic market, leading to reduced product sales prices [1] - The company implemented strict cost control measures to reduce general indirect expenses, which also impacted profitability [1]

Group 1 - The company, China Aluminum Cans (06898), announced a mid-term dividend of HKD 0.0015 per share to be distributed on October 28, 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ball Corporation reported better-than-expected Q2 earnings driven by strong demand for aluminum cans in North America and Europe, and raised its annual profit guidance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q2 revenue increased by 7.8% to $3.34 billion, surpassing market expectations of $3.12 billion [1] - Adjusted earnings per share were $0.90, exceeding the anticipated $0.87 [1] - Global shipments of aluminum packaging products grew by 4.1%, up from 2.6% in the previous three months [1] Group 2: Market Demand - Increased demand from packaged food companies is attributed to consumers opting for canned foods and beverages amid high inflation [1] - Beverage packaging sales in North and Central America rose from $1.47 billion to $1.61 billion year-over-year [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company expects comparable earnings to grow by 12% to 15% by 2025, an increase from the previous forecast of 11% to 14% [1] Group 4: Cost Management - Tariffs on steel and aluminum have raised input costs for companies like Ball [2] - The company believes the direct impact of announced tariffs is manageable and is working closely with customers to mitigate the effects of aluminum price fluctuations [2] - The CEO indicated that the company is strictly controlling costs in light of potential geopolitical uncertainties and market volatility in the second half of the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's decision to double tariffs on steel and aluminum products from 25% to 50% is expected to significantly increase manufacturing costs across various industries, ultimately impacting consumers and the overall economy negatively [1][2][3]. Industry Impact - The automotive industry is projected to face the most immediate effects, with estimates suggesting that the increased tariffs could raise the cost of producing each vehicle by approximately $400, given that steel's value in a car is around $800 [1][2]. - Sports equipment prices, including items like baseball bats and tennis rackets, are also expected to rise, potentially leading to decreased consumer spending in sports [2]. - The food and beverage sector will likely see price increases for everyday items such as canned goods and soft drinks, as manufacturers increasingly rely on imported materials [2]. - The housing market may experience a rise in new home costs by about $10,900 due to increased prices for steel and aluminum used in construction [2]. Economic Analysis - Experts argue that the tariff increase is a misguided policy that could harm the U.S. economy in the long run, as it raises costs for various industries while failing to provide substantial benefits to the domestic steel industry [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding the duration of the 50% tariffs is causing concern among business owners, potentially deterring them from making significant investments in capacity expansion [3]. - The move is seen as a step towards increased protectionism, which could undermine international trade relationships and cooperation [3].