行业 铝日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 13 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 铝观点： 沪铝冲高回落，主力最高攀升至 21200 一线，尾盘跌至 20980，环比上日下 跌 0.12%，日线收长上影，10-11 转为平水，进口窗口关闭，但长假后外强内弱格 局加剧，现货进口亏损扩大至-2400 元/吨左右。基本面上，北方矿供应偏紧矿价 相对偏强，其余区域保持平稳，但几内亚传出部分矿山复产对进口矿价产生压力； 氧化铝价格仍在走跌，日内徘徊在 2850 附近，主因基本面过剩显著，后续关注价 格持续下跌后带动部分高成本企业亏损产生减产检修的情况，若进一步走跌 ...

Packaging regulation is tightening across Asia Pacific as governments step up measures to cut waste, increase recycling and promote circular systems. The market in the region is forecast by Smithers to exceed USD 535bn in 2025, with growth projected to outpace the global average. To adapt, businesses are focusing on six strategies that are reshaping packaging development and compliance. Recycled content requirements Mandatory rules on recycled content are emerging across the region. India will enfor ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team of Jianxin Futures [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - On the penultimate trading day before the holiday, with a quiet news front and decreased market trading enthusiasm, Shanghai Aluminum showed weak performance. The main 2511 contract closed with a slight 0.22% decline at 20,730. The spread between October and November changed from a discount to a premium of 15, and the far - month contracts maintained a slight contango structure. The import window was closed, and the spot import loss fluctuated around - 1,500 yuan/ton. It's recommended to wait and see before the holiday [7]. - The production of domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed, and the probability of resuming production this year is low. The price of imported ore is under short - term pressure, but with the end of the rainy season, the shipping volume will gradually increase. The alumina price fluctuates around 2,900. The supply surplus is difficult to ease for the time being. After October, some high - cost enterprises are expected to cut production and carry out maintenance as the monthly average price drops [7]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high. The operating rate of processing enterprises rebounded significantly last week but is likely to decline temporarily due to the upcoming long holiday. Shanghai Aluminum has returned to the previous trading range. Pay attention to the support level of 20,500. It's advisable to hold a light position during the holiday to control risks [7]. - The trend of cast aluminum alloy continues to follow Shanghai Aluminum. With the peak season and the tight supply of scrap aluminum raw materials, continue to pay attention to the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [7]. Group 4: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum market was weak on the penultimate trading day before the holiday. The main 2511 contract closed slightly down, the spread structure changed, and the import window was closed [7]. - **Bauxite Situation**: Domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed production, and the probability of resuming this year is low. Imported ore is under short - term pressure, but shipping volume will increase after the rainy season. Pay attention to the changes in mining rights policies before the Guinea election [7]. - **Alumina Situation**: Alumina price fluctuates around 2,900. Supply surplus is difficult to ease. After October, some high - cost enterprises may cut production and carry out maintenance [7]. - **Operational Suggestions**: It's recommended to wait and see before the holiday. Pay attention to the support level of 20,500 for Shanghai Aluminum and hold a light position during the holiday [7]. Group 5: Industry News - UAE's EGA is preparing for a potential IPO, with an estimated valuation of $10 - 15 billion. Dubai and Abu Dhabi are competing for this major listing project. EGA has overcome challenges such as US aluminum tariffs and plans to invest $4 billion in a smelter in Oklahoma [8][10]. - In 2025, the demand for aluminum cans in Japan was about 2.091 billion, remaining the same as the previous year and staying at the 2 - billion - can level for 10 consecutive years [9]. - On September 22, 2025, the standard warehouse receipt generation business of cast aluminum alloy futures was officially launched. The total registered volume of cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts on the first day was 3,878 tons, with different volumes in various regions [9].

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum Cans (06898) reported a mid-year performance for 2025, showing a revenue of approximately HKD 118 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.71% [1] - The profit attributable to the parent company was HKD 13.96 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.79% [1] - Basic earnings per share were reported at 1.5 HK cents [1] Summary by Categories Financial Performance - Revenue for the period was approximately HKD 118 million, down 1.71% compared to the previous year [1] - Profit attributable to the parent company decreased to HKD 13.96 million, a decline of 13.79% year-on-year [1] - Basic earnings per share stood at 1.5 HK cents [1] Market Conditions - The decline in net profit was primarily attributed to intensified competition in the domestic market, leading to reduced product sales prices [1] - The company implemented strict cost control measures to reduce general indirect expenses, which also impacted profitability [1]

Group 1 - The company, China Aluminum Cans (06898), announced a mid-term dividend of HKD 0.0015 per share to be distributed on October 28, 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ball Corporation reported better-than-expected Q2 earnings driven by strong demand for aluminum cans in North America and Europe, and raised its annual profit guidance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q2 revenue increased by 7.8% to $3.34 billion, surpassing market expectations of $3.12 billion [1] - Adjusted earnings per share were $0.90, exceeding the anticipated $0.87 [1] - Global shipments of aluminum packaging products grew by 4.1%, up from 2.6% in the previous three months [1] Group 2: Market Demand - Increased demand from packaged food companies is attributed to consumers opting for canned foods and beverages amid high inflation [1] - Beverage packaging sales in North and Central America rose from $1.47 billion to $1.61 billion year-over-year [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company expects comparable earnings to grow by 12% to 15% by 2025, an increase from the previous forecast of 11% to 14% [1] Group 4: Cost Management - Tariffs on steel and aluminum have raised input costs for companies like Ball [2] - The company believes the direct impact of announced tariffs is manageable and is working closely with customers to mitigate the effects of aluminum price fluctuations [2] - The CEO indicated that the company is strictly controlling costs in light of potential geopolitical uncertainties and market volatility in the second half of the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's decision to double tariffs on steel and aluminum products from 25% to 50% is expected to significantly increase manufacturing costs across various industries, ultimately impacting consumers and the overall economy negatively [1][2][3]. Industry Impact - The automotive industry is projected to face the most immediate effects, with estimates suggesting that the increased tariffs could raise the cost of producing each vehicle by approximately $400, given that steel's value in a car is around $800 [1][2]. - Sports equipment prices, including items like baseball bats and tennis rackets, are also expected to rise, potentially leading to decreased consumer spending in sports [2]. - The food and beverage sector will likely see price increases for everyday items such as canned goods and soft drinks, as manufacturers increasingly rely on imported materials [2]. - The housing market may experience a rise in new home costs by about $10,900 due to increased prices for steel and aluminum used in construction [2]. Economic Analysis - Experts argue that the tariff increase is a misguided policy that could harm the U.S. economy in the long run, as it raises costs for various industries while failing to provide substantial benefits to the domestic steel industry [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding the duration of the 50% tariffs is causing concern among business owners, potentially deterring them from making significant investments in capacity expansion [3]. - The move is seen as a step towards increased protectionism, which could undermine international trade relationships and cooperation [3].