Core Viewpoint - European leaders are urging the United States to increase pressure on Russia through sanctions, as the upcoming meeting between President Trump and President Putin could significantly impact Ukraine's fate and Europe's long-term security [1] Group 1: Meeting Context and Objectives - The meeting between Trump and Putin is scheduled to take place in Alaska, with European capitals unifying their stance on the meeting's format and substance [1] - U.S. Vice President JD Vance described the planned meeting as a "major breakthrough" in American diplomacy, aiming for a "stop the killing" territorial resolution [2] Group 2: European Concerns and Proposals - European officials emphasize that any future ceasefire agreement should include strict sanctions for violations, ensuring Russia cannot exploit peace for economic benefits [1] - There is a proposal to use frozen Russian sovereign assets to pressure Russia, with discussions around borrowing from the €190 billion in assets held by Euroclear to fund Ukraine [3] Group 3: Security Guarantees for Ukraine - European leaders insist that any resolution must include strong security guarantees for Ukraine, opposing any limitations on military and financial support from the West [4] - Concerns have been raised regarding Trump's suggestion of "territorial exchange," which is viewed as a potential land concession by Ukraine [4][5] Group 4: Stance on Ukraine's Future - NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte stated that negotiations should recognize Ukraine's right to determine its future, and its military size should not be restricted [5] - European officials express apprehension that Trump may pressure Ukrainian President Zelensky to accept any agreements reached in Alaska, which could undermine Ukraine's security [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in the stock price of Rusal (00486), which rose over 13% and is currently trading at 4.7 HKD with a transaction volume of 17.273 million HKD [1] - U.S. President Trump announced a meeting with Russian President Putin on August 15 in Alaska, which may influence the future of U.S.-Russia trade relations, particularly regarding aluminum imports [1] - In February, President Putin indicated that Russia would be willing to resume aluminum exports to the U.S. if sanctions on Russian metal imports were lifted, with an estimated 2 million tons of aluminum potentially available for export [1] Group 2 - According to research from Open Source Securities, Russia is the third-largest primary aluminum producer globally, with Rusal contributing significantly to this output [1] - Rusal's primary aluminum production is projected to reach 3.847 million tons in 2023, with expectations to increase to 3.9 million tons in 2024 due to the ramp-up of Taishet's production capacity [1] - The global aluminum supply is expected to see Rusal contributing approximately 5% of the total production, while the U.S. remains the second-largest aluminum consumer, indicating potential for stable orders if exports resume [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-08燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：市场观望美是否本周推进对俄制裁，报道称特朗普计划与俄罗斯总统普京会面后，油价回吐 早前涨幅，连续第五日收跌，国际原油整体呈现弱势下行的走势，燃料油价格也震荡下跌；偏空 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油406.63美元/吨，基差为182元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为501.5美元/吨，基差 为163元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油8月6日当周库存为2074.9万桶，增加47万桶；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线偏下；偏空 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓空单，空增，偏空；低硫主力持仓多 ...

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced a significant increase due to market assessments of direct US-Russia contact and potential further sanctions against Russia, followed by a notable decline in prices during the trading session [1] - As of the close, light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $0.81 to $64.35 per barrel, a decrease of 1.24%, while Brent crude for October delivery dropped by $0.75 to $66.89 per barrel, down 1.11% [1] - The US Secretary of State indicated that more information regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and potential sanctions would be released later that day [1] Group 2 - Rystad Energy analysts noted that while oil prices rose due to potential US tariffs on Indian goods, the market is awaiting formal implementation and its impact on market factors [2] - The US Energy Information Administration reported a decrease of 3 million barrels in commercial crude oil inventories, bringing the total to 423.7 million barrels [2] - The average daily crude oil processing volume in US refineries increased by 213,000 barrels to 17.1 million barrels, with an average utilization rate of 96.9% [2] Group 3 - The American Petroleum Institute predicted a decrease of 4.2 million barrels in commercial crude oil inventories, with gasoline inventories expected to drop by 900,000 barrels [3]

据英国《金融时报》5日报道，如果俄罗斯和乌克兰在8日前未达成停火协议，美国政府将考虑对俄"影 子舰队"实施制裁。 美国总统特朗普7月29日称，他把俄罗斯与乌克兰达成和平协议的最后期限设定为10天，从当天开始计 算。如果俄方没有就此取得进展，将面临美国新的制裁。俄总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫7月30日表示，俄经 济多年来已形成对制裁的"免疫力"。 （文章来源：新华网） 西方国家指责俄罗斯利用油轮等商用船只逃避西方制裁，将这些商用船只称为"影子舰队"。此前，欧盟 已通过第17轮和第18轮对俄制裁方案，其中包括对俄"影子舰队"船只进行制裁，禁止其停靠欧盟港口并 停止相关海事服务。 报道援引知情人士的消息说，特朗普政府正考虑采取一系列措施，包括制裁俄"影子舰队"，此举被视为 对俄施压"简单的第一步"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion between Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal and U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen focused on the initiation of a U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, with plans to hold the first board meeting in September and launch three projects within the next 18 months [1] Group 1: Fund Initiation and Objectives - The U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund aims to expand its functions to include investments in the defense sector [1] - The first board meeting of the fund is scheduled for September, with a target to initiate three projects in the upcoming 18 months [1] Group 2: Defense Cooperation - Prime Minister Shmyhal highlighted potential defense agreements proposed by President Zelensky, including the production and sale of Ukrainian drones and the possible procurement of U.S. weapons [1] Group 3: Sanctions and International Cooperation - The discussion included strengthening sanctions against Russia and enhancing cooperation with international financial organizations [1] - Both parties agreed to maintain dialogue at the working level to further these discussions [1]

Group 1 - The core issue discussed in the conversation between Ukrainian President Zelensky and US President Trump is the urgent need to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] - Ukraine fully supports the US proposal for an "immediate ceasefire" and has attempted various plans and dialogue formats to achieve this [1] - Ukraine proposed an "air silence" initiative, which includes a complete halt to missile and drone attacks and stopping strikes on civilian infrastructure, particularly energy systems, but Russia has repeatedly violated these agreements [1] Group 2 - Zelensky emphasized the importance of exerting international pressure on Russia, particularly from the US, along with the threat of harsher sanctions due to the war [1] - A key measure mentioned is the sanctioning of Russian oil exports as part of the strategy to increase pressure on Russia [1]

Group 1 - The core discussion between Ukraine's President Zelensky and UK Prime Minister Starmer focused on enhancing Ukraine's defense capabilities, expanding sanctions against Russia, and promoting peace negotiations [1] - There is an urgent emphasis on increasing the production of drones, particularly in the area of interception drones, with both leaders expressing the need to find specific solutions for funding requirements [1] - The conversation also included discussions on the sanctions imposed on Russia, indicating a continued commitment to economic pressure on the country [1]

Group 1 - International oil prices weakened due to market concerns over supply and demand outlook, with NYMEX light crude oil futures falling by $0.74 to $69.26 per barrel, a decrease of 1.06%, and Brent crude oil futures down $0.71 to $72.53 per barrel, a drop of 0.97% [1] - The U.S. and Mexico agreed to maintain current tariff rates for the next 90 days and negotiate a new trade agreement, which has put pressure on crude oil futures as it is expected to negatively impact future oil demand [1] - Analysts expect oil demand to weaken, with OPEC likely to increase oil supply after summer, leading to expectations of rising oil inventories [2] Group 2 - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory rose significantly by 7.7 million barrels to 426.7 million barrels, exceeding market expectations, while gasoline inventories decreased by 2.7 million barrels and distillate inventories increased by 3.6 million barrels [2] - The average daily crude oil processing volume in U.S. refineries was 16.9 million barrels, a decrease of 25,000 barrels week-on-week, with an average refinery utilization rate of 95.4% [2] - The U.S. daily crude oil production increased by 41,000 barrels to 13.314 million barrels, while the strategic petroleum reserve rose by 238,000 barrels to 40.27 million barrels [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. and China have agreed to extend the suspension of tariffs for an additional 90 days, pending final approval from President Trump [1][2] - The current suspension period is set to end on August 12, after which the U.S. plans to reintroduce tariffs on China [2] - The discussions included topics such as U.S. sanctions on Russia and China's restrictions on rare earth exports [3] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin described the negotiations as constructive, indicating a positive outlook for future talks [1] - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng emphasized the importance of a stable and sustainable U.S.-China economic relationship for global economic stability [2][3] - The U.S. has expressed concerns over China's reluctance to participate in sanctions against Russia, hinting at potential economic repercussions [3]