Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - The soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short - term [1] - The soybean meal may fluctuate in the short - term [1] - The short - term corn futures price will fluctuate within a range, and investors are advised to operate cautiously as the May Day holiday approaches [1] - The copper price has rebounded to a key price range. Tactical defense should focus on the suppression of the 60 - day moving average and the monthly K - line pattern [2] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and short - selling can be considered on rallies [3][4] - After the macro - negative factors are digested, a long - position approach can be considered for the far - month contracts at low levels after May [5] - The coking coal and coke will have a weak rebound at low levels with limited upside space [7] - The iron ore 2505 will oscillate in the short - term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [8] - The WTI crude oil will see its price center shift down in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the pressure at $65 per barrel for the WTI main contract [9] - For Shanghai rubber, attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate, and there is support around 14,000 yuan per ton for the main contract [10] - The PVC futures price may oscillate at a low level due to weak demand [11] - The soda ash futures market will likely have a wide - range oscillation in the short - term [12] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8,260 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - **Market Analysis**: It is in the period of US soybean sowing and South American soybean harvesting and exporting. South American new - crop harvest is likely to be abundant. Mid - term supply and demand of soybean oil may remain neutral, and mid - term inventory may be stable [1] Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, and Rizhao are 3,800 yuan/ton (- 150), 4,050 yuan/ton (- 250), and 3,830 yuan/ton (- 170) respectively [1] - **Market Analysis**: Sino - US trade tariff issues remain unresolved. US soybean sowing progress exceeds expectations, and Brazilian soybean harvesting is nearly finished. Brazilian soybeans are arriving in China, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to become looser. The inventory has reached a low point due to the mismatch between pre - May Day stocking and oil refinery operations [1] Corn - **Spot Information**: The average purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia is 2,128 yuan/ton; in North China and the Huang - Huai region, it is 2,333 yuan/ton. The purchase prices at Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,200 - 2,230 yuan/ton and 2,200 - 2,220 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Market Analysis**: The impact of the US tariff event on the outer market has weakened. The USDA report has lowered US corn production and ending stocks. The US dollar index has declined, supporting the US corn futures. In the domestic market, farmers' grain sales are nearly 90% completed, and the import of corn and substitute grains has decreased significantly. However, the downstream demand is weak due to slow pig production capacity reduction, feed inventory backlog, and the supply pressure of new wheat [1] Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,0360 - 78,230 yuan, up 30 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 42.52, down 7.81 [1] - **Market Analysis**: The global market is still in the stage of "irrational" tariff shock, and the high - volatility window of overseas capital markets has not ended. The Fed's actions are uncertain. Domestically, policies are continuously strengthening market expectations. The raw material shock is intensifying, and the copper price is in a stage of resonance [2] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The market prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) are 69,600 yuan/ton and 68,100 yuan/ton respectively, with a price difference of 1,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [3] - **Market Analysis**: The forward price of spodumene concentrate is continuously decreasing. The weekly operating rate is increasing but at a slower pace, and the salt - lake production has resumed. The demand has improved but is not enough to drive the price up. The inventory has been accumulating [3] Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,160 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [5] - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of the steel industry are gradually improving. The cost of steel is dynamically changing, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [5] Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,205 yuan/ton, the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 246.10 million tons [6] - **Market Analysis**: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak as steel mills may reduce production, the inventory of independent coking enterprises is slightly increasing, and the average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [7] Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts iron ore index is 100.45, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 767 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 768 yuan [8] - **Market Analysis**: The supply is mixed with Australian shipments decreasing and Brazilian shipments increasing. The port inventory has decreased. The domestic demand has increased, but steel mills' procurement is cautious. Overseas demand is differentiated, and the US tariff policy restricts the upward space of iron ore prices [8] Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: The market sentiment has improved, and the US inventory has decreased. OPEC + has announced compensation production cuts. However, the US "reciprocal tariff" still impacts the market. In the medium - to - long - term, the price center of crude oil will shift down [9] Rubber - **Market Analysis**: The US "reciprocal tariff" has affected China's tire and automobile exports. The domestic rubber supply is increasing as the domestic production area starts harvesting, and the global supply and demand are both loose [10] PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,780 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,050 yuan/ton, and the price difference is 270 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [11] - **Market Analysis**: The operating rate of PVC production enterprises has increased. The demand from downstream enterprises has not improved significantly, and the social inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate at a low level [11] Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,418.44 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are 1,450 yuan/ton, 1,500 yuan/ton, and 1,400 yuan/ton respectively, remaining unchanged [12] - **Market Analysis**: The operating rate of soda ash production is relatively stable, the inventory is decreasing, the demand is average, and the market sentiment has improved, but the fundamental drive is weak. The futures price will likely have a wide - range oscillation in the short - term [12]

Group 1 - The relationship between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has become increasingly tense, reflecting structural conflicts between the executive branch and an independent central bank [1] - Trump's second term economic strategy differs from his first, focusing on aggressive policies such as significant interest rate cuts to showcase economic performance to voters [2][3] - The U.S. manufacturing sector's contribution to the global economy has drastically decreased from 28% to 10%, impacting employment and inflation stability [3] Group 2 - The U.S. federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2024 is projected at $1.83 trillion, marking the third-largest deficit in history, exacerbated by Trump's tax cuts and infrastructure spending [4] - The national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with interest payments reaching $1.1 trillion, the highest in 26 years, leading to increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [4][9] - Inflation rates are showing signs of improvement, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising only 2.4% year-on-year in March, prompting Trump to call for interest rate cuts [5][6] Group 3 - Powell's cautious approach to interest rate adjustments is influenced by the potential long-term inflation risks associated with Trump's tariff policies, which could lead to a "spiral" of rising prices [6][7] - The Federal Reserve's independence is emphasized, as historical precedents protect its decision-making from direct presidential influence, complicating Trump's attempts to exert control [10][11] - The contrasting economic philosophies between Trump, who prioritizes immediate economic growth, and Powell, who focuses on data-driven inflation control, contribute to their ongoing conflict [10][11]

Group 1 - China firmly opposes any trade agreements that sacrifice its interests and will take reciprocal measures if necessary, emphasizing the importance of fair and just international trade rules [1] - The U.S. has announced a 10% baseline tariff on all trade partners, effective April 5, and higher tariffs on countries with significant trade deficits, impacting 185 countries and regions [1] - India is particularly affected, with an estimated 87% of its exports to the U.S. facing tariff increases, potentially leading to a $7.3 billion decline in exports for the fiscal year 2025-2026 [3] Group 2 - The U.S. plans to impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals, which are crucial for India, as 31% of its $27.9 billion pharmaceutical exports go to the U.S., raising concerns about the viability of Indian generic drug companies [3] - India has announced a temporary 12% tariff on certain steel imports to protect domestic manufacturers from increased competition, effective for 200 days [5] - India is actively negotiating with the U.S. for a bilateral trade agreement, with a potential "win-win" deal expected within 90 days, which may include provisions that could harm Chinese interests [7]

不向困境屈服，不为疲惫折腰，带着热爱前行，去邂逅美好。新的一周开始，各位朋友早安~ 美联储降息预期升温，当地时间2025年4月24日，美股三大指数连续第三个交易日集体收涨，纳斯达克指数以2.74%的涨幅领跑，标普500指数上涨 2.03%，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨1.23%。业内人士认为， 华尔街投资者押注美联储可能会比预期更早降息以防止经济衰退，从而推动股市上涨。 针对美联储降息的时间，美联储官员密集发声。 美国银行证券公司高级美国经济学家Aditya Bhave上周五也表示：" 他们（美联储）或许宁可晚一点，也不想犯错。美联储将选择静观事态对其双重使命 的影响，然后再决定如何行动。" 此外，鲍威尔现任期将于2026年5月结束，美国财政部长贝森特已表示将于今秋启动继任者遴选。 其中，沃什被广泛视为特朗普心中"最可能取代现任主席鲍威尔"的人选之一。沃什生于1970年，是美联储主席诸多热门人选中最为年轻的一位。他毕业于 斯坦福大学和哈佛法学院，分别获得学士学位和法学博士学位。沃什之所以被视为下任美联储主席的最大热门人选，是因为其最近和特朗普及其经济团队 的密切联系，以及他曾公开支持特朗普的降息倡议。在去年11月大 ...

证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 | ] 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | | 邮 | 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 对等关税如何影响二季度外贸节奏 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 25 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [➢Tab时点上， 影响 le_Summary] 5 月的中美外贸影响可能更剧烈。当前中美关税博弈"高位僵持" 之下，我们认为 5 月份关税对中美外贸影响可能更剧烈。首先，当前可观 察的高频数据显示 4 月中国 ...

核心观点 以下文章来源于大地期货研究院 ，作者大地期货研究院 大地期货研究院官方订阅号 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 大地期货研究院 . 01 中美贸易冲突继续升级 1. 美国关税政策最新进展 | 国家 | 对等 | 国家 | 对等 | 国家 | 对等 | 国家 | 对等 | 国家 | 对等 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 关税 | | 关税 | | 关税 | | 关税 | | 关税 | | 中国 | 145% | 马来西亚 | 24% | 澳大利亚 | 10% | 多米尼加共 | 10% | 哈萨克斯坦 | 27% | | | | | | | | 和国 | | | | | 欧盟 | 20% | 東埔寨 | 49% | 巴基斯坦 | 29% | 阿联首 | 10% | 塞尔维亚 | 37% | | 成南 | 46% | 東国 | 10% | 王自真 | 10% | 新西兰 | 10% | 埃及 | 10% | | 中国合湾 | 32% | 南非 | 30% | 斯里兰卡 | 44% | 阿根廷 | 10% | ...

Group 1: Market and Regulatory Updates - Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced the Labor Day market closure from May 1 to May 5, 2025, resuming normal operations on May 6 [1] - Seven departments issued a plan for the digital transformation of the pharmaceutical industry, emphasizing the integration of artificial intelligence across the entire industry chain [2] - High-profile logistics platform GaoLu Group, backed by Hillhouse Capital, is seeking $100 million in private credit financing for asset acquisitions [3] Group 2: Company Financial Performance - Shenjian Co. reported a 2024 revenue of 2.418 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.97%, but a net profit increase of 32.29% to 33.65 million yuan, proposing a cash dividend of 0.5 yuan per 10 shares [6] - Jingwei Co. achieved a 2024 revenue of 673 million yuan, up 30.79%, but a net profit decline of 36.76% to 35.54 million yuan, proposing a cash dividend of 1.00 yuan per 10 shares [7] - Minsheng Health reported a 2024 revenue of 641 million yuan, a 10.23% increase, with a net profit of 91.83 million yuan, up 7.24%, proposing a cash dividend of 1.00 yuan per 10 shares [8] - Wangsu Technology's Q1 2025 net profit reached 192 million yuan, a 38.54% increase, with a revenue of 1.235 billion yuan, up 10.26% [9] - Beilu Pharmaceutical reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 283 million yuan, a 36.23% increase, with a net profit of 14.54 million yuan, up 26.13% [10] - Huning Co. reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 64.51 million yuan, a 4.37% increase, but a net profit decline of 45.68% to 3.61 million yuan [11] Group 3: Corporate Governance and Compliance - Pioneer's fund underwent significant management changes following a change in actual control, with the chairman resigning for personal reasons [4] - Hu Haiquan's private equity funds received regulatory warnings for failing to fulfill fiduciary duties and risk assessments during fundraising [5] - RNG's affiliated company was reported to owe 82,000 yuan in taxes [5]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term U.S. tariff policy cannot fundamentally resolve the "twin deficits" issue, which includes both trade and fiscal deficits [1][22]. Trade Deficit - The U.S. trade deficit reached a historical high of $1.3 trillion in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 10.89%, and is projected to be $1.29 trillion in 2024, up 12.57% [3]. - The trade deficit with China remains significant, with a surplus of $319 billion in 2024, only a decrease of $76.7 billion from 2017 [2]. - The U.S. has maintained a trade deficit exceeding $1.1 trillion since 2021, with a deficit of $289.1 billion in the first two months of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 58.3% [3]. Fiscal Deficit - The federal budget deficit is projected to reach $1.781 trillion in 2025, accounting for 23.9% of the total budget and 5.9% of GDP, indicating a worsening trend compared to 2019 [5][7]. - Interest payments on national debt are expected to rise from $363 billion in 2019 to $965 billion in 2025, driven by a historic federal debt exceeding $36 trillion and rising interest rates [6][7]. Tariff Policy and Revenue - The U.S. government anticipates an average annual tariff revenue of $290 billion over the next decade, which is only 15.6% of the projected $1.859 trillion fiscal deficit in 2024 [2][21]. - The proposed tariffs, including a 145% tariff on China, are expected to generate $9.8 trillion in revenue from $27.7 trillion in imports over ten years, but the actual revenue may decline due to increased prices leading to reduced demand [20][21]. Structural Issues - The U.S. trade deficit is primarily a result of structural economic imbalances and the global reserve currency status of the dollar, which encourages high consumption and low savings [16][17]. - The U.S. has a high consumption rate of 67.9% of GDP, significantly above other developed countries, which contributes to the persistent trade deficit [14][16]. Impact on Competitiveness - Tariff barriers may increase global supply chain costs, potentially weakening the competitiveness of U.S. companies [22]. - The monopolistic position of U.S. tech companies allows them to generate substantial profits overseas, which may be threatened by retaliatory tariffs from other countries [11][12]. Conclusion - The "reciprocal tariffs" policy may yield short-term negotiation benefits and localized adjustments to the trade deficit, but it lacks the structural reforms necessary to address income inequality, savings rates, and fiscal sustainability [22].

Group 1: Legal Actions Against Tariff Policies - Twelve states in the U.S. have filed a lawsuit against the federal government, claiming that the tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration are illegal and not a legitimate exercise of power [2][4] - The lawsuit argues that the authority to set tariffs is exclusive to Congress, and the President can only invoke emergency powers in the face of "extraordinary and unusual threats" from abroad [2] - New York Attorney General Letitia James stated that the illegal tariff policies could lead to severe inflation, unemployment, and economic losses if not halted [2] Group 2: EU Fines on Tech Giants - The European Commission has imposed fines of €500 million on Apple and €200 million on a metaverse platform company for violations of the Digital Markets Act [5] - Apple was found to restrict app developers from directing users to third-party channels, depriving users of access to alternative services [6] - The metaverse platform's "consent or pay" model, requiring users to either agree to data integration for personalized ads or pay a monthly fee for an ad-free version, was deemed non-compliant with legal requirements [6] Group 3: International Reactions and Implications - The U.S. government has labeled the EU's penalties as "new economic extortion," indicating a potential escalation in tensions between the U.S. and the EU [8] - The EU has warned that if negotiations with the U.S. regarding tariffs do not yield results, it may impose taxes on large American tech companies [8]

继美国加利福尼亚州就关税问题起诉特朗普政府之后，"美国反对美国"的戏码持续上演。当地时间4月23日，美国又有12个州组成联盟共同起诉特朗普政 府，指控其关税政策违法。 0:00 23日，俄勒冈州、亚利桑那州、科罗拉多州、康涅狄格州、特拉华州、伊利诺伊州、缅因州、明尼苏达州、内华达州、新墨西哥州、纽约州和佛蒙特州的总 检察长向位于纽约的美国国际贸易法院提起诉讼，称特朗普政府的关税政策为"一时兴起，而非合法权力的正当行使"，要求法院宣布"对等关税"非法，并阻 止其实施。 俄勒冈州总检察长表示，加征关税是非法的，损害每个勤劳的家庭和企业，它不只是纸面数字，更是实实在在的成本，影响着每个人的钱包、工作，乃至所 有人的未来。 美经济规模第一大州 加州提起"第一诉" 0:00 加利福尼亚州是第一个对特朗普关税"大棒"发起挑战的州政府。 当地时间4月16日，加州州长加文·纽森宣布就关税问题起诉特朗普政府，指责后者滥用关税政策的行为"违法"。 诉讼指出，关税已扰乱供应链，推高加州政府与民众成本，并对全球规模第五的加州经济造成数十亿美元损失。 "加征关税是非法的" 12州联合起诉美政府 高昂的关税令美国小企业主承受巨大压力。一 ...