不过，凯茜·伍德旗下的Ark Invest仍在持续进行一系列聚焦创新与科技股的重大投资操作。其中值得注 意的买入包括Robinhood (HOOD.US)、奈飞(NFLX.US)以及百度(BIDU.US)等股票。同时，该基金也进 行了部分减持操作，如Shopify(SHOP.US)与AMD(AMD.US)的股票。此外，该基金在10月出售了4,064股 Palantir Technologies(PLTR.US)的股票。 值得注意的是，近段时间以来，随着AI相关公司估值飙升、大规模的AI投资以及AI生态系统的日益闭 环，有关AI泡沫的担忧再度浮现。华尔街对此观点不一。 例如，美国银行在10月进行的一项基金经理调查显示，随着今年以来AI概念股经历了一轮强劲上涨， 认为该板块已陷入泡沫的全球基金经理比例创下历史新高。在这项调查中，约54%的受访者表示科技股 当前估值过高。 （原标题："木头姐"加入AI泡沫争论：泡沫尚不存在 但AI股票估值或迎"现实检验"） 智通财经APP获悉，Ark首席执行官凯茜·伍德周二表示，她并不认为当前的人工智能(AI)市场存在泡 沫，但警告称，AI相关股票的估值可能很快会面临一次"现实检验 ...

然而，实现梦想的代价，已然飙升了百倍不止。对于这一点，山姆·奥特曼及其团队并无意隐瞒。在他们面向公众的融资计划书中，便已直言不讳： "我们渴望在履行使命的同时，增强融资能力。但我们所知的任何现有法律架构，都无法平衡这对矛盾。我们的解决方案，是创造了OpenAI LP，将 其塑造为一个营利与非营利的混合体——我们称之为'利润上限'公司。" 2019年11月，在举世惊呼的"大模型元年"2023年尚未来临的四年前，在OpenAI LP——这家机构用以探索商业可能性的营利性子公司的官网上，静默 地悬挂着一幅画作。它给人的观感是"温暖、宁静、朦胧，却又在底色中涌动着无穷生机"： 这幅在当时未激起太多涟漪的图画，数年之后被回溯者解读为一种深意：它象征着这家当时仍显神秘与边缘的人工智能初创公司，对其终极目标 ——通用人工智能（AGI）——所做出的、"充满柔性却坚定不移"的视觉诠释。 在同一页面之上，比图像更为凝练的，是一段定义其灵魂的文字： "Our mission is to ensure that artificial general intelligence (AGI) benefits all of humanit ...

Core Viewpoint - Seaport Global Securities analyst Jay Goldberg is the only one among 80 analysts covering Nvidia to issue a "sell" rating, setting a target price of $100, expressing skepticism about the AI hype and comparing the current situation to the dot-com bubble [1][2][7] Group 1: Historical Comparison - Goldberg believes Nvidia's growth is heavily reliant on massive capital expenditures from a few tech giants, including Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Oracle, and OpenAI, which have created a market cap of $4.5 trillion for Nvidia [2] - The projected capital expenditures for these companies are expected to approach $400 billion by 2025, with OpenAI committing over $1 trillion [2] - Goldberg warns that the actual returns from these massive investments have been limited, drawing parallels to the telecom infrastructure boom during the dot-com bubble, where companies like Cisco saw stock prices soar based on unrealized internet traffic expectations [2][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Concerns - Goldberg questions the sources of incremental power for new data centers, suggesting that the current market sentiment assumes Nvidia's AI chips are sold out, leaving little room for further price increases [6] - He highlights the accumulating leverage around data center development, indicating that the failure of a seemingly insignificant company could trigger a chain reaction throughout the supply chain [6] - Despite his "sell" rating, Goldberg admires Nvidia and its CEO Jensen Huang, clarifying that his rating reflects an expectation that Nvidia will underperform compared to peers like Broadcom, Qualcomm, and AMD [6] Group 3: Wall Street Sentiment - While Goldberg is the only analyst with a "sell" rating, concerns about an AI bubble are echoed by others on Wall Street, including Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, who has compared the current AI craze to the dot-com bubble [7] - A recent Bank of America survey indicated a record high percentage of respondents believe AI stocks are in a bubble, with even OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman acknowledging the possibility of an AI bubble [7] - Despite these concerns, the majority of analysts remain bullish on Nvidia, with 73 out of 80 analysts rating it as a "buy," and some, like HSBC's Frank Lee, setting target prices as high as $320 based on anticipated demand for AI accelerators [8]

U.S. stocks signaled another rally on Sunday night after the Trump administration negotiated a framework for a trade deal with China that should avoid mutual assured destruction.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered rough outlines of an agreement that include China easing rare earth export restrictions and buying “significant” amounts of U.S. soybeans in exchange for President Donald Trump removing his threat of adding 100% tariffs on China. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet Th ...

Core Viewpoint - A unique "sell" rating for Nvidia (NVDA.US) has been issued by analyst Jay Goldberg from Seaport Global Securities, contrasting with the general bullish sentiment on Wall Street [2][4]. Group 1: Analyst's Perspective - Goldberg expresses skepticism about the AI hype, comparing the current situation to the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s, warning that a slowdown in capital expenditures could lead to a rapid market reversal [3][5]. - He highlights that Nvidia's impressive growth is largely driven by substantial capital spending from a few tech giants, including Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Oracle, and OpenAI, which collectively contribute to Nvidia's market valuation of $4.5 trillion [5][6]. - Goldberg's target price for Nvidia is set at $100, significantly lower than the average target price of $220 from other analysts, indicating a potential downside of 55% [2][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The expected capital expenditures from the five listed companies are projected to approach $400 billion by 2025, with OpenAI committing over $1 trillion [6]. - Goldberg warns that the actual returns from these massive investments have been limited, drawing parallels to the telecom infrastructure boom during the dot-com era, where companies like Cisco saw their stock prices soar based on anticipated internet traffic, only to suffer significant declines when expectations were not met [7][10]. - He questions the sustainability of Nvidia's stock price, suggesting that the market's belief in the AI chip's scarcity may limit further price increases, as there are few upward drivers left [11]. Group 3: Broader Market Sentiment - Despite Goldberg's bearish outlook, the majority of Wall Street analysts remain optimistic, with 73 out of 80 analysts rating Nvidia as a "buy" and only 6 holding a "hold" view [17]. - Some analysts, like Jim Awad from Clearstead Advisors, argue that the AI sector is still in its early stages and Nvidia plays a crucial role in driving economic and market momentum [18]. - The most optimistic analyst, Frank Lee from HSBC, recently raised Nvidia's rating to "buy" with a target price of $320, citing strong demand for AI accelerators [19].

在华尔街对英伟达的狂热追捧中，一位分析师正在逆流而行。 在覆盖英伟达的80名分析师中，Seaport Global Securities分析师Jay Goldberg给出了唯一的"卖出"评级，并将目标价定在100美元。 "围绕AI的所有炒作，我都持怀疑态度，" Goldberg在接受彭博采访时表示，"这不是我第一次看到泡沫。" 历史重演？剑指科网泡沫 在Goldberg看来，当前英伟达的惊人增长，主要依赖于少数几家科技巨头的巨额资本支出。微软、Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta、甲骨文以及OpenAI这六家公司 正在争相建设AI基础设施，它们的采购需求造就了英伟达高达4.5万亿美元的市值。 2025年，这五家上市公司预计资本开支将接近4000亿美元，OpenAI也承诺投入逾1万亿美元。 然而，Goldberg提醒投资者关注这些巨额投入迄今为止所产生的实际回报有多么有限。 他认为， 这种模式与科网泡沫时期的电信基础设施建设非常相似，当时思科等公司的股价因预期中的互联网流量而飙升，但当预期未能立即兑现时，股价便遭 受重创。二十多年后，思科的股价仍未回到2000年的高点。 他将当前的局面类比为2000年前后的科网泡 ...

Seaport Global分析师Jay Goldberg认为，当前英伟达的惊人增长，主要依赖于少数几家科技巨头的巨额资本支出。但巨额投入迄今 为止所产生的实际回报非常有限。这种模式与科网泡沫时期的电信基础设施建设非常相似，"出于很大程度上的心理原因，我们将建起 所有这些AI设施。在某个时候，支出将会停止，然后整个体系都会崩溃，我们将迎来一次重置。" 在华尔街对英伟达的狂热追捧中，一位分析师正在逆流而行。 在覆盖英伟达的80名分析师中，Seaport Global Securities分析师Jay Goldberg给出了唯一的"卖出"评级，并将目标价定在100美元。 "围绕AI的所有炒作，我都持怀疑态度，" Goldberg在接受彭博采访时表示，"这不是我第一次看到泡沫。" 他将当前的局面类比为2000年前后的科网泡沫，并警告称，一旦支撑高估值的巨额支出放缓，市场格局可能会迅速逆转。 这一立场与市场的普遍乐观情绪形成鲜明对比，目前华尔街分析师的平均目标价约为220美元，预示着还有18%的上涨空间。 历史重演？剑指科网泡沫 在Goldberg看来，当前英伟达的惊人增长，主要依赖于少数几家科技巨头的巨额资本支出。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Seaport Global Securities analyst Jay Goldberg is the only one among 80 analysts covering Nvidia to issue a "sell" rating, setting a target price of $100, expressing skepticism about the current AI hype and drawing parallels to the dot-com bubble [1][2]. Group 1: Analyst's Perspective - Goldberg compares the current situation to the telecom infrastructure boom during the dot-com bubble, warning that once the massive spending that supports high valuations slows down, the market landscape could quickly reverse [2][3]. - He highlights that Nvidia's remarkable growth is primarily driven by substantial capital expenditures from a few tech giants, including Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Oracle, and OpenAI, which collectively are expected to spend nearly $400 billion by 2025 [3]. - Goldberg emphasizes that the actual returns from these massive investments have been limited so far, similar to the expectations that led to Cisco's stock price surge during the dot-com era [3][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Goldberg questions the sources of incremental power needed for new data centers, suggesting that the accumulation of leverage around data center development could lead to a chain reaction if a seemingly insignificant company fails [7]. - Despite his "sell" rating, Goldberg admires Nvidia and its CEO Jensen Huang, clarifying that his rating indicates he expects Nvidia's performance to lag behind peers like Broadcom, Qualcomm, and AMD [7]. Group 3: Broader Market Sentiment - Concerns about an AI bubble are not isolated to Goldberg; other market voices, including Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, have drawn comparisons to the dot-com bubble, and a recent Bank of America survey indicated a record high of respondents believing AI stocks are in a bubble [8]. - Despite Goldberg's warnings, the prevailing sentiment on Wall Street remains bullish, with 73 out of 80 analysts giving Nvidia a "buy" rating, and some analysts projecting significant future demand for AI accelerators [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices has attracted significant market attention, but a sharp decline of over 6% in a single day raises concerns about future price movements [1][2]. Short-term Analysis - Short-term pressure on gold prices is evident due to technical overbought conditions and changes in the macro environment [1]. - Trading congestion indicates that both short-term and long-term gold positions are at 100% historical percentiles, historically leading to price corrections [1]. - Gold prices have increased by 30% in less than two months, reaching the upper limit of short-term gains over the past five years, with historical data suggesting an average pullback of 4% following such rapid increases [1]. - The World Gold Council's GRAM model indicates that over 50% of the gold price increase from August to September 2025 is attributed to unexplained residual factors, which historically correlate with reduced price increases in the following month [1]. Recent Market Dynamics - The recent sharp decline in gold prices is primarily driven by technical corrections and changes in macroeconomic narratives [2]. - Factors such as easing expectations around US-China trade tensions, potential ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine, and alleviation of the US government shutdown crisis have diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2]. Medium to Long-term Outlook - The long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, geopolitical risks weakening the dollar, and persistent government deficits [4]. - The over-reliance on deficit monetization since the 2008 financial crisis has led to a continuous depreciation of the dollar against physical assets, increasing long-term demand for gold as an alternative asset [4]. - Central bank gold purchases have accelerated post-Ukraine war, contributing to the decoupling of gold from the dollar and US Treasury yields [4]. - In a low-growth global environment, gold is positioned as a key asset to combat stagflation, with the potential for a prolonged bull market if technological advancements fail to address distribution issues [4]. - The historical trend of declining gold's market share relative to dollar-denominated assets since the 1980s continues to underpin the medium-term perspective on gold [4].

Market Movements - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.16%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.33%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.50% [1] - European indices show a decline, with Germany's DAX down by 0.11%, UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.06%, France's CAC 40 down by 0.57%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down by 0.20% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 0.60% to $62.16 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 0.55% to $66.35 per barrel [3] Economic Data and Predictions - The upcoming US CPI report is highly anticipated, with economists predicting a month-over-month increase of 0.4% and a year-over-year increase of 3.1% [4] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and remain at 3.1% year-over-year [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates, with a 98.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the October meeting [5] Company News - Goldman Sachs expresses skepticism about an AI bubble, stating that while some warning signs exist, the US tech sector is not currently in a bubble [6] - Intel reports Q3 revenue of $13.7 billion, a 3% year-over-year increase, and a significant turnaround with an adjusted EPS of $0.23, exceeding market expectations [10] - Ford faces a potential $2 billion profit impact due to a fire at a core supplier for its F-150 model, but the company still reported strong Q3 earnings [11] - Procter & Gamble's Q1 net sales reached $22.39 billion, surpassing expectations, driven by strong demand for its products despite price increases [12] - Sanofi's Q3 revenue was €12.43 billion, a 2.3% year-over-year increase, with strong demand for its Dupixent drug [12] - Eni's Q3 revenue was €20.5 billion, with a net profit of €865 million, leading to a 20% increase in its stock buyback plan [13]