Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of Xi Jinping's economic thought in guiding China's economic work in the new era, highlighting the need for resilience and strategic action in the face of challenges and risks [1][5][20]. Group 1: Economic Resilience and Strategy - The Chinese economy has grown stronger through challenges, including poverty alleviation, supply-side structural reforms, and risk prevention [1][4]. - Xi Jinping's economic thought advocates for maintaining strategic determination and patience, avoiding short-termism in long-term goals [5][17]. - The call for open cooperation and win-win outcomes reflects China's role as a leader in promoting trade and investment liberalization [5][16]. Group 2: Innovation and Technology - China has made significant strides in innovation, recently ranking in the top ten of the Global Innovation Index [12][13]. - The development of high-end chips and core technologies is crucial for maintaining competitive advantages in the global market [14][20]. - The emphasis on mastering core technologies underlines the strategic importance of self-reliance in technological advancement [13][14]. Group 3: Risk Management and Economic Stability - The article discusses the importance of proactive risk management, highlighting successful measures taken to mitigate financial risks and stabilize the economy [21][22]. - The need for a comprehensive approach to economic stability is underscored, focusing on enhancing domestic demand and supply chain resilience [22][30]. - The government's efforts to address real estate financing and other systemic risks demonstrate a commitment to maintaining economic health [21][30]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Development - The completion of significant infrastructure projects, such as the world's tallest bridge, illustrates the ongoing commitment to improving connectivity and economic development [23][24]. - The focus on rural revitalization and poverty alleviation reflects a long-term strategy for achieving common prosperity [25][26]. - The construction of a unified national market is seen as a key strategy for enhancing economic resilience and competitiveness [30][31].

Group 1 - China's foreign trade showed resilience in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year increase of 4% in goods trade, and high-tech product exports rising by 11.9% [3][4] - The foundation of the real economy is becoming increasingly solid, with China now being the world's largest manufacturing power, showcasing a diverse range of industrial capabilities [4][5] - The transition to a new development stage marks a significant leap in China's socialist development, emphasizing the importance of recognizing historical development patterns and seizing opportunities [6][7] Group 2 - The new development stage is characterized by high-quality development, with a focus on innovation, green growth, and the integration of domestic and international markets [8][9] - The new development concept introduced by Xi Jinping emphasizes innovation as a core driver of economic growth, alongside green development as a fundamental principle [9][10] - The need for structural reforms is highlighted, particularly in enhancing the quality and efficiency of resource allocation and addressing systemic barriers to factor mobility [14][15] Group 3 - The ongoing reforms aim to optimize the economic structure and promote the transition from old to new growth drivers, with a focus on supply-side structural reforms [18][19] - The relationship between market forces and government intervention is crucial for achieving optimal resource allocation and maximizing efficiency [17][20] - The emphasis on enhancing domestic demand and building a robust internal circulation system is seen as essential for mitigating external shocks and fostering sustainable growth [13][22] Group 4 - Food and energy security are prioritized as fundamental aspects of national stability and development, with significant measures taken to ensure grain production and energy supply [26][27] - The importance of risk management and proactive measures to address potential economic challenges is underscored, with a focus on maintaining economic stability and social order [28][29] - The commitment to high-quality development is reinforced through coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, aimed at stabilizing expectations and boosting confidence in the economy [30][31]

共识，愈加深刻：中国经济之所以能够翻山越岭、克难前进，最根本的原因在于以习近平同志为核 心的党中央领航掌舵，在于习近平经济思想的科学指引。 思想的波涛卷起巨澜，时间在量变的积累中孕育质变。 行进在新时代航程上，以科学理论为炬，以发展实践为帆，中国共产党领导14亿多人民共同执笔的 奋斗史诗，正成章于星海、运笔于山河，铺展开充满信心和希冀的瑰丽画卷。 （一） "十四五"收官在即，在前四年5.5%的平均增速基础上，2025年中国经济总量有望达到140万亿元。 成绩，世界瞩目：在这么大体量的基础上，在各种风险挑战的冲击下，中国经济保持这样的增速， 在经济发展史上前所未有。 新华社北京10月13日电 题：领航定向驾驭发展全局——习近平经济思想引领新时代经济工作述评 之一 新华社记者 金秋的中国大地，硕果盈枝。 巍巍太行山，风光无限好。 2025年7月，习近平总书记来到这里，访企业、听汇报，为山西经济社会发展指明方向： "要扎实推进传统产业转型升级，围绕发展新质生产力因地制宜布局新兴产业和未来产业""要用好 多元发展条件，优化营商环境，激发经营主体活力"。 山西的转型发展，是中国经济砥砺前进的一个缩影。党的十八大以来，习 ...

共识，愈加深刻：中国经济之所以能够翻山越岭、克难前进，最根本的原因在于以习近平同志为 核心的党中央领航掌舵，在于习近平经济思想的科学指引。 思想的波涛卷起巨澜，时间在量变的积累中孕育质变。 行进在新时代航程上，以科学理论为炬，以发展实践为帆，中国共产党领导14亿多人民共同执笔 的奋斗史诗，正成章于星海、运笔于山河，铺展开充满信心和希冀的瑰丽画卷。 （一） 巍巍太行山，风光无限好。 领航定向驾驭发展全局——习近平经济思想引领新时代经济工作述评之一 新华社记者 金秋的中国大地，硕果盈枝。 "十四五"收官在即，在前四年5.5%的平均增速基础上，2025年中国经济总量有望达到140万亿元。 成绩，世界瞩目：在这么大体量的基础上，在各种风险挑战的冲击下，中国经济保持这样的增 速，在经济发展史上前所未有。 2025年7月，习近平总书记来到这里，访企业、听汇报，为山西经济社会发展指明方向： 山西的转型发展，是中国经济砥砺前进的一个缩影。党的十八大以来，习近平总书记多次考察三 晋大地，对一省的发展把脉，映射出对全局的深刻把握—— 2017年，强调"贯彻新发展理念""以深化供给侧结构性改革推动经济转型发展"； 2020年，要求 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.10」 硅锰市场周报 产业定价板块偏弱，开工回落库存回升 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结2」 行情回顾及展望 来源：文华财经 瑞达期货研究院 图2、硅锰跨期价差走势图 来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面，二十届四中全会将于10月20日至23日在北京召开；国家发展改革委、市场监管总局发布《关于治理价格无序竞争维 护良好市场价格秩序的公告》。《公告》指出，对价格无序竞争问题突出的重点行业，指导行业协会等有关机构调研评估行业 平均成本，为经营者合理定价提供参考；9月30日起，《人民日报》连续推出8篇"习近平经济思想指引下的中国经济专论"系列 "钟才文"文章，围绕"经济形势怎么看、经济工作怎么干"，传递出稳预期、强信心、促发展的强烈信号。 2. 海外方面，以色列政府10日凌晨批准加沙停火协议。 3. 供需方面，节前库存回升较快，产量高位延续小幅回落，库存连续三周回升，成本 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - The macro - situation includes the upcoming 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee from October 20 - 23, providing short - term emotional support; overseas, Israel approved a Gaza cease - fire agreement. The supply of coke during the holiday was normal with no obvious inventory accumulation in most coking plants. The current iron - water output is 241.81 tons, a decrease of 0.55 tons, with high - level fluctuations. The total coke inventory is higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 9 yuan/ton. Technically, the weekly K of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish weekly trend. It is expected that the profit of coke has limited room for significant improvement, and the price of coking coal futures main contract will fluctuate between 1060 - 1220, while the coke futures main contract will fluctuate between 1590 - 1730 [7]. Group 2: According to the Table of Contents 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro**: The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will be held from October 20 - 23; relevant departments issued a price - governance announcement, and "Zhong Cai Wen" articles in People's Daily sent positive signals [7]. - **Overseas**: Israel approved a Gaza cease - fire agreement [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Coke production was normal during the holiday, with no obvious inventory accumulation in most coking plants. The current iron - water output is 241.81 tons, a decrease of 0.55 tons, with high - level fluctuations. The total coke inventory is higher than the same period [7]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 9 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical**: The weekly K of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish weekly trend [7]. - **Strategy**: The upcoming plenary session may support short - term sentiment. The demand for finished products in "Golden September" was average, and it is expected that "Silver October" will be no better than September, with a continuous decline in crude steel output. The coal inventory is expected to increase seasonally. The profit of coke has limited room for significant improvement. The price of coking coal futures main contract is expected to fluctuate between 1060 - 1220, and the coke futures main contract between 1590 - 1730 [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of October 10, the position of coke futures contracts is 49,300 hands, a net increase of 781 hands; the 5 - 1 contract spread is 152.5, a net increase of 9 points; the warehouse receipt volume increased by 10 hands, and the screw - coke ratio decreased by 0.03 points [11][14]. - **Spot Market**: As of October 9, the flat - price of coke at Rizhao Port is 1430 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the ex - factory price of coking coal at Ganqimao Port is 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. As of October 10, the coke basis is - 224 yuan, a net increase of 76 points [24]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Coking Plant**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 74.95%, a decrease of 0.05%; the daily coke output is 52.86, a decrease of 0.03; the coke inventory is 42.54, an increase of 3.53; the total coking coal inventory is 819.32, a decrease of 69.15; the available days of coking coal are 11.7 days, a decrease of 0.98 days. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 9 yuan/ton, with different profits in different regions [32]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills is 241.54 tons, a decrease of 0.27 tons from last week and an increase of 8.46 tons from last year. As of October 3, the total coke inventory is 891.07 tons, an increase of 0.15 tons from the previous period and an increase of 13.88% from the same period last year [36]. - **Inventory Structure**: The inventory of 18 ports is 252.59, a decrease of 4.00; the inventory of 247 steel mills: the daily coke output is 46.38, a decrease of 0.16; the capacity utilization rate is 85.53%, a decrease of 0.29%; the coke inventory is 650.82, a decrease of 12.58; the available days of coke are 11.42 days, a decrease of 0.18 days [40]. - **Fundamental Data**: From January to August, the cumulative coke export decreased by 20.0% year - on - year; the growth rate of steel export from January to August increased by 10.0% year - on - year. In August, the second - hand housing price index of 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.60% month - on - month; as of the week of October 5, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 40.80% month - on - month and increased by 26.68% year - on - year. The commercial housing transaction area of first - tier cities decreased by 33.72% month - on - month and increased by 56.20% year - on - year; that of second - tier cities decreased by 47.92% month - on - month and increased by 20.92% year - on - year [42][48][54].

Macro and Strategy Research - The manufacturing sector shows further improvement with a notable recovery in small enterprises, as indicated by the September PMI data, which reported a manufacturing PMI of 49.8%, a non-manufacturing business activity index of 50.0%, and a composite PMI output index of 50.6% [2][3] - The production index increased by 1.1 percentage points to 51.9%, while the new orders index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, still below the critical point [3] - New export orders reached a high of 47.8%, marking a 0.6 percentage point increase, suggesting a reduction in the impact of tariff policies [3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell by 0.3 percentage points to 50.0%, with the construction sector slightly improving to 49.3% and the service sector declining to 50.1% [4] - The composite PMI output index increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.6%, driven by the recovery in manufacturing, which offset the short-term decline in non-manufacturing [4] A-Share Market Investment Strategy - Major indices in the A-share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 2.09% and the ChiNext Index by 0.81% over the recent trading period [6][7] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to clarify economic strategies, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and supporting innovation as key components [7] - The market is anticipated to maintain a strong structural characteristic, with potential investment opportunities in sectors such as TMT, electric power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and consumer services [8] Industry Research - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles reached CNY 9,400.40 billion from January to August, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.90% [14] - The light industry sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.54% against the index's increase of 3.20% [15] - The packaging paper industry is expected to see improved performance due to price increases being passed down to downstream sectors, with significant profit growth anticipated in Q3 [15][16] - The consumer market showed stable growth during the recent holiday period, with government subsidies expected to further stimulate sales in related sectors [15][16]

Group 1 - The net financing amount of urban investment bonds has been negative for seven consecutive months, with a financing gap of 32.64 billion yuan in September [1] - In September, the issuance of urban investment bonds was 482.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.76% month-on-month, with a total issuance of 4,091.83 billion yuan and total repayment of 4,277.05 billion yuan for the year [1] - The overall financing pace in the urban investment bond market remains tight, with an increase in registrations, a slowdown in approvals, and a rise in terminations [1] Group 2 - After the National Day holiday, both the stock and bond markets experienced a positive start, with government bond futures rising and major interest rates on bonds declining [2] - The investment environment in the bond market has become more challenging compared to last year, influenced by various factors including the resumption of VAT on bond investments and new regulations on public funds [2] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 612 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 145.13 billion yuan on October 9 [6] - A one-stop account opening platform for foreign institutions in the interbank bond market has been launched, aimed at facilitating foreign investment [6] Group 4 - In the first nine months of the year, Inner Mongolia's technology innovation bonds reached a cumulative issuance of 11.5 billion yuan, supporting technology enterprises with core technologies [9] - Yunnan province has issued guidelines to encourage state-owned enterprises to acquire and revitalize historical risk real estate projects, while ensuring no new hidden government debt [9] Group 5 - The issuance of company bonds by Zhengzhou Road and Bridge Group is set at 500 million yuan, with a credit rating of AA [11] - The first expansion of a holding-type real estate ABS has been completed, raising an additional 453 million yuan, bringing the total scale to 1.623 billion yuan [13] Group 6 - The market sentiment regarding the bond market is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of a potential rebound in October, although institutions advise against chasing prices [20][21] - The bond market environment is improving, with better asset pricing and a focus on defensive strategies, particularly in the short to medium-term credit space [20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the long-term stability and resilience of China's economy under the guidance of Xi Jinping's economic thought, highlighting the significant achievements and transformations since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China [3][4][8] - China's GDP is projected to grow from 54 trillion yuan in 2012 to nearly 135 trillion yuan by 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 6%, nearly double the global average of 3.1% [3][4] - The shift from traditional factor-driven growth to innovation-driven growth is evident, with the contribution of consumption to economic growth expected to reach around 63% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4][5] Group 2 - The article discusses the deep transformation of development dynamics, with innovation becoming the primary driving force, as evidenced by China's rise in the global innovation index from 34th in 2012 to 10th by 2025 [4][5] - The rural income growth rate has consistently outpaced urban income growth, with nearly 100 million rural poor lifted out of poverty, marking a significant achievement in poverty alleviation [5][6] - China's commitment to green transformation is highlighted, with a focus on ecological protection and sustainable development, as reflected in the significant improvements in environmental quality [6][31] Group 3 - The article outlines the importance of coordinated regional development strategies, such as the integration of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the Yangtze River Delta, which have led to notable economic improvements [5][6] - China's foreign trade has remained robust, with the total volume of goods trade consistently ranking first globally, and the country has become a major trading partner for over 150 countries [6][32] - The article emphasizes the enhancement of people's well-being, with improvements in public services and social security systems contributing to increased life satisfaction and security among citizens [7][30] Group 4 - The article highlights the significant investment opportunities arising from China's economic transformation, particularly in traditional industries transitioning to high-end, intelligent, and green production [19][20] - The rapid growth of the consumer market is noted, with expectations for retail sales to exceed 50 trillion yuan by 2025, solidifying China's position as the world's second-largest consumer market [21][22] - The ongoing urbanization and infrastructure development present substantial investment opportunities, especially in less developed regions [22][23] Group 5 - The article discusses the certainty of China's development strategy, which ensures a stable direction for economic growth, contrasting with the policy fluctuations seen in some Western countries [23][24] - China's macroeconomic policies are characterized by stability and adaptability, allowing for effective responses to both domestic and international challenges [24][25] - The article emphasizes the resilience of China's economy, which has demonstrated the ability to withstand external pressures and maintain growth despite global uncertainties [25][26] Group 6 - The article underscores China's commitment to high-level openness and its role as a contributor to global economic stability, with a focus on multilateralism and cooperation [32][33] - The Belt and Road Initiative is highlighted as a significant platform for international cooperation, enhancing connectivity and economic collaboration with numerous countries [35][36] - China's market offers vast opportunities for foreign investment, with a focus on creating a favorable business environment and expanding market access [36][40]

Core Ideas - The article emphasizes the need to construct a 21st-century political economy that reflects China's unique experiences and offers solutions to global challenges, guided by Xi Jinping's economic thought [1][3][5] Group 1: Theoretical Framework - Xi Jinping's economic thought serves as a comprehensive theoretical summary for China's economic development, providing a foundation for the construction of a 21st-century political economy [3][4] - The historical context of political economy shows that significant theoretical advancements arise from profound reflections on transformative practices, indicating that China's reform and modernization can inspire new theories [4][5] Group 2: Global Context and Challenges - The world is undergoing unprecedented changes, with issues such as economic imbalance, widening wealth gaps, and ecological crises becoming increasingly complex, necessitating a return to classical political economy concerns [1][2] - The dominance of Western economic paradigms has limited China's academic discourse and global understanding, highlighting the importance of developing a political economy that reflects Chinese practices and engages in international dialogue [5][6] Group 3: Key Issues in Political Economy - The fundamental purpose of development should focus on ethical values and social equity, moving beyond the Western economic model that often leads to wealth polarization [6][7] - The dynamics of development must consider new drivers such as technological innovation and data factors, emphasizing the role of new productive forces in shaping economic growth [6][8] - The relationship between economy and politics is crucial, with a need to clarify the roles of political parties, government, and markets in economic governance [7][8] Group 4: Environmental and Global Governance - Addressing the relationship between development and the environment is essential, advocating for a green development model that harmonizes economic growth with ecological sustainability [11][12] - The article discusses the challenges of economic globalization and the need for a fairer global governance system, proposing that China's initiatives can contribute to a more inclusive global economic order [12][13]