AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 匈牙利和土耳其央行沦为政治工具的警示 帕特森摆出匈牙利和土耳其两个例子。这两国领导人在面对预算赤字、通胀压力和刺激增长的诉求时， 都打破了制度规范并修改法律，以确保央行服务于政府的政治目标，结果通常是人为压低利率，意图加 速经济增长。 首先是匈牙利。该国央行自1991年起独立运作，但过去约15年来，政府多次试图影响货币政策决策，通 过增加货币政策委员会成员数量"改造"决策结构。2011年通过修改法律削弱央行独立性后，三大评级机 构将匈牙利主权信用评级下调至垃圾级，导致借款成本攀升，该国货币福林贬值。 尽管如此，政府对央行的掌控并未停止，今年，维克多·欧尔班（Viktor Orban）领导的青民盟 （Fidesz）又提出立法，拟将货币政策委员会成员从9人扩充至11人，并新增由欧尔班直接任命的副行 长。 音频由扣子空间生成 美国总统特朗普及其政府试图通过施压美联储主席鲍威尔来达成降息目的。美国外交关系委员会的经济 学家和高级研究员丽贝卡·帕特森（Rebecca Patterson）发文警告称，特朗普政府对美联储的施压行为存 在高风险且可能适得其反。 几个月来，特朗普一直呼吁美 ...

Summary of the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Federal Reserve** (the central bank of the United States) and its role in the global economy. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Importance of the Federal Reserve**: The Federal Reserve is crucial as it influences the global economy due to the dominance of the U.S. economy and the dollar as the world's primary currency [1] 2. **Historical Context of Central Banks**: The concept of a central bank is relatively modern; historically, there were no central banks, and currency issuance was often decentralized [2][3] 3. **Functions of Central Banks**: Central banks regulate the money supply through various mechanisms, including adjusting reserve requirements and buying/selling government securities [3][4] 4. **Independence of Central Banks**: The independence of central banks, particularly in developed countries, is emphasized as a means to prevent short-term political influences on monetary policy [5][6] 5. **Structure of the Federal Reserve**: The Federal Reserve was established in 1913 and operates as a unique entity with both public and private characteristics, functioning as a bank for banks [11][12] 6. **Profit Distribution**: The profits generated by the Federal Reserve are transferred to the U.S. Treasury, and shareholders do not receive profit distributions [14] 7. **Chairperson Selection**: The selection of the Federal Reserve Chairperson is influenced by presidential preferences, with candidates often coming from successful financial or academic backgrounds [16] 8. **Global Monetary System**: Post-World War II, the dollar became the foundation of the global financial system, leading to the establishment of the Bretton Woods system, which eventually transitioned to a floating exchange rate system [17][18] 9. **Federal Reserve's Goals**: The primary objectives of the Federal Reserve include maintaining price stability and monitoring employment levels, without any explicit goals to target other countries [18] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Historical Myths**: The narrative dispels myths about capital controlling the U.S. government, emphasizing that the establishment of the Federal Reserve was a response to financial crises rather than a result of private interests [9][10] 2. **Externalities of Central Banking**: The discussion touches on the concept of externalities, where the actions of the Federal Reserve can significantly impact the broader economy and society [13] 3. **Crisis Management**: The Federal Reserve plays a critical role in managing financial crises by providing liquidity to commercial banks during times of distress [4][5]

25亿美元的翻修风波，正在改写现代央行制度的命运。在美国马里兰州安德鲁斯联合基地的停机坪上，特朗普面对镜头，再次 向全球财经界投下一枚重磅炸弹："鲍威尔应该辞职，他对国家非常不利！" 这番言论宛如一颗深水炸弹，瞬间引爆了全球金融 市场的神经，也标志着一场围绕美联储主席命运的政治风暴正式拉开帷幕。 引爆这场风暴的导火索，并非此前市场普遍关注的降息分歧，而是白宫团队将矛头对准了美联储总部翻修预算。白宫预算主管 拉塞尔·沃特将该项目比作"当代凡尔赛宫"，指控鲍威尔涉嫌向国会虚假陈述或违反建筑许可。这项翻修工程的预算，从最初的 19亿美元飙升至25亿美元，这7亿美元的超支，成为了白宫眼中"渎职"的铁证。 然而，美联储的回应同样强硬。 鲍威尔在6月国会听证会上直言大楼"不安全且不防水"，超支是由于清理铅污染和石棉等意外问 题，而非奢华设计。美联储官网随后罕见发布长篇辩护，强调这是1930年代建筑的首次全面改造，所有流程均合规。 尽管如此，白宫并未就此罢休。 一方面，白宫已向国家首都规划委员会安插三名亲信，试图从程序漏洞寻求突破。但另一方 面，特朗普的逼宫也面临着一道高墙：最高法院此前裁定，总统无权因政策分歧解雇美联储官 ...

Core Insights - Countries with greater independence for their central banks tend to perform better in terms of inflation and employment [1] Group 1 - Central bank independence is linked to improved economic outcomes [1] - Enhanced central bank autonomy contributes positively to inflation control [1] - Employment rates are also positively affected by central bank independence [1]

围绕下一届美联储主席人选的博弈正在加剧，鲍威尔对未来去向的沉默，贝森特兼任可能性的浮现，都 为美国货币政策的独立性前景注入了新的变数。 鲍威尔周二在与全球央行行长们的小组讨论中被问及任期问题时，他仅简短回应："关于此事，我无可 奉告。" 据媒体援引知情人士透露，鲍威尔的谨慎态度令特朗普的一些顾问感到沮丧，他们认为这是鲍威尔试图 抵制总统干预货币政策的一种方式。 文艺复兴宏观研究公司的经济研究主管Neil Dutta表示，鲍威尔不明确表态，恰恰是他此刻拥有的"筹 码"。Dutta认为："如果特朗普选择一个对总统要求唯唯诺诺的候选人，这正是鲍威尔可能留在理事会 的动机。" 如果鲍威尔选择留任理事，特朗普在任期内仅有一次预定的理事会席位任命机会，这将严重限制其重塑 美联储的能力。 特朗普周二表示已有"两到三个顶级候选人"接替鲍威尔，但拒绝透露具体人选。据彭博援引知情人士透 露，近几周来特朗普的顾问甚至与他讨论了让财政部长贝森特同时担任美联储主席的可能性。这将是自 1935年两职分离以来的史无前例之举。 鲍威尔将可以继续在由19人组成的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）中对利率决策施加影响，并可能团结 那些与他共事多年的 ...

在美国前总统特朗普以前所未有的方式加码施压之际，美联储主席鲍威尔正准备在欧洲一个重要的央行论坛上发表讲话，这令市场高度关注他将 如何平衡货币政策的稳定信号与捍卫央行独立性的微妙立场。 周一，特朗普通过一封手写信函和社交媒体帖子，将他对美联储的批评推向新高潮。特朗普在手写信函中，附上了一张全球利率排名表，指责鲍 威尔让国家"损失了一大笔钱"，并要求其"大幅"降息。信中提到，如果美联储降息，将能节省"数千亿美元"的利息成本。 与此同时，特朗普在社交媒体上将矛头指向了整个美联储理事会，称鲍威尔及其同事"应该为让这种事发生在美国身上而感到羞耻"。这延续了他 数月以来对鲍威尔的攻击，此前他曾直接侮辱鲍威尔，甚至威胁要将其解雇，并在上周五公开喊话让鲍威尔辞职。 国际舞台上的支持与对比 今晚，这些压力都将聚焦于鲍威尔在欧洲央行的年度论坛上的讲话，该论坛常被称为欧洲版的"杰克逊霍尔"全球央行年会。 美国、欧元区、英国、日本和韩国的央行首脑们将就全球贸易紧张局势与中东冲突如何影响通胀与增长前景交换意见。但在多数国家通胀似乎受 控的背景下，更深刻的问题或将主导讨论：特朗普的保护主义与不可预测的经济政策，会终结这个统治全球金融80 ...

Core Viewpoint - The consensus emphasizes the critical importance of central bank independence in maintaining economic stability and effective monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee highlights that a broad agreement exists on the necessity of central bank independence [1] - The independence of central banks is viewed as essential for ensuring that monetary policy is not influenced by political pressures [1] - Maintaining this independence is crucial for fostering trust in the financial system and promoting long-term economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions of China in reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, which has reached a 12-year low, and the implications of this move on U.S. monetary policy and the broader global financial landscape [1][6][20]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bonds and Monetary Policy - China sold $8.2 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, bringing its total holdings down to $757 billion, the lowest level in 12 years [6][20]. - The Federal Reserve, led by Jerome Powell, maintained interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, despite pressure from President Trump, who expressed frustration over the decision [6][10]. - The market reacted negatively to China's bond sell-off, causing U.S. Treasury yields to rise and increasing volatility in the dollar index [6][20]. Group 2: Political Dynamics and Central Bank Independence - Trump's aggressive stance towards Powell included public threats and insults, highlighting the tension between political pressures and central bank independence [3][10]. - Powell emphasized that monetary policy would not be influenced by short-term political considerations, reinforcing the independence of the Federal Reserve [10][14]. - The Federal Reserve Act protects the chairman from being dismissed due to policy disagreements, underscoring the importance of maintaining a professional approach to monetary policy [12][14]. Group 3: Global Financial Trends - A significant portion of global central banks, 43%, plan to continue purchasing gold, indicating a loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar [16]. - Other countries, such as Japan and the UK, have adjusted their U.S. Treasury holdings, with Japan buying $3.7 billion and the UK purchasing $28.4 billion in April [18][20]. - The trend of reducing U.S. Treasury holdings reflects a broader shift in the global financial landscape, with countries diversifying their reserves to mitigate risks associated with U.S. debt [24][26]. Group 4: Strategic Shifts by China - China has reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings from $1.65 trillion in 2013 to $757 billion, indicating a strategic shift towards diversifying its investments [24][26]. - The country has simultaneously increased its gold reserves to 73.45 million ounces and is promoting the internationalization of the yuan, which is seen as a forward-looking strategy [24][26]. - The decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves from 73% to 58% reflects a significant and irreversible trend towards "de-dollarization" [26].

市场分析：美联储利率决议可能被"联储影子主席"抢风头 金十数据6月16日讯，Ethenea的分析师卢卡·佩萨里尼在一份报告中说，美联储本周的会议不会因为利率 路径而被人们记住，更多的是对央行独立性的考验。佩萨里尼说："真正的挑战不在于相互矛盾的经济 数据，而在于政治对货币政策沟通的干预。"特朗普此前宣布，他将很快任命美联储主席鲍威尔的继任 者，这距离鲍威尔任期届满还有近一年的时间。这让"影子主席"的概念成为焦点。佩萨里尼说，如果这 一消息公布，美联储官方和指定继任者之间就有可能发出相互矛盾的货币政策信号，尤其是如果后者公 开推动降息的话。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Central Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, reaffirmed the independence of the Russian central bank [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes the central bank's autonomy in its operations and decision-making processes [1]