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燃料油早报-20250612
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 03:26
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high-sulfur crack spread declined, the 380-month spread decreased, and the basis strengthened. The low-sulfur crack spread weakened in a volatile manner, the near-term month spread slightly weakened, and the basis weakened. This week, inventories in Singapore continued to accumulate, inventories in ARA ports continued to accumulate, and US residual oil inventories decreased slightly. Recently, the low-sulfur valuation has shown that there is room for downward correction in the crack spread and the inter-month spread after the supply recovers. The high-sulfur crack spread has started to loosen, and the game in the overseas market remains strong. This year, affected by the consumption tax deduction and tariff adjustment in China, the feedstock demand of fuel oil refineries has declined significantly. In terms of marine fuel, the global high-sulfur marine fuel from January to March increased by 2% year-on-year, and Singapore remained basically flat. The total marine fuel was weaker year-on-year. Pay attention to the impact of tariffs on global trade activities in the future. Recently, Saudi Arabia's net imports have rebounded, and Egypt's purchases have continued. High-sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak season. Pay attention to the opportunity for the high-sulfur crack spread to decline in the medium term. The domestic production schedule is relatively high, and the idea of shorting LU at high levels both domestically and overseas remains unchanged. [3][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From June 5th to June 11th, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSFO swap M1 increased from 397.00 to 416.62, with a change of 9.39; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1 increased from 450.35 to 469.90, with a change of 11.94; the Rotterdam HSFO-Brent M1 decreased from -2.45 to -3.10, with a change of -0.14; the price of Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased from 599.39 to 628.77, with a change of 12.17; the Rotterdam VLSFO-GO M1 decreased from -149.04 to -158.87, with a change of -0.23; the LGO-Brent M1 remained unchanged at 17.90; the Rotterdam VLSFO-HSFO M1 increased from 53.35 to 53.28, with a change of 2.55 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From June 5th to June 11th, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased from 412.03 to 430.99, with a change of 10.92; the price of Singapore 180cst M1 increased from 418.53 to 431.27, with a change of 4.30; the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 increased from 478.40 to 501.76, with a change of 15.62; the price of Singapore GO M1 increased from 79.75 to 84.48, with a change of 2.50; the Singapore 380cst-Brent M1 decreased from 0.57 to -0.91, with a change of -0.63; the Singapore VLSFO-GO M1 decreased from -111.75 to -123.39, with a change of -2.88 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From June 5th to June 11th, the FOB 380cst decreased from 435.70 to 435.55, with a change of -5.55; the FOB VLSFO increased from 489.42 to 499.42, with a change of 2.64; the 380 basis increased from 10.50 to 12.95, with a change of 0.70; the high-sulfur domestic and overseas price difference decreased from 6.7 to 6.8, with a change of -0.2; the low-sulfur domestic and overseas price difference increased from 18.4 to 17.6, with a change of 1.1 [2] Domestic FU Data - From June 5th to June 11th, the FU 01 remained unchanged at 2780; the FU 05 increased from 2657 to 2727, with a change of 10; the FU 09 decreased from 2853 to 2912, with a change of -12; the FU 01-05 decreased from 55 to 53, with a change of -10; the FU 05-09 increased from -196 to -185, with a change of 22; the FU 09-01 decreased from 141 to 132, with a change of -12 [2] Domestic LU Data - From June 5th to June 11th, the LU 01 decreased from 3356 to 3414, with a change of -17; the LU 05 decreased from 3280 to 3348, with a change of -10; the LU 09 increased from 3450 to 3524, with a change of 6; the LU 01-05 decreased from 76 to 66, with a change of -7; the LU 05-09 decreased from -170 to -176, with a change of -16; the LU 09-01 increased from 94 to 110, with a change of 23 [3]
燃料油早报-20250611
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 02:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread declined, the 380 - month spread declined, and the basis strengthened. The low - sulfur crack spread weakened in a volatile manner, the near - end month spread weakened slightly, and the basis weakened. [6] - Singapore's on - land inventory continued to accumulate, ARA ports continued to accumulate inventory, and US residual oil slightly reduced inventory. Recently, the low - sulfur valuation showed that there is room for downward correction in the crack spread and the inter - month spread after supply recovery. [6][11] - The high - sulfur crack spread has started to loosen, and the overseas market game remains strong. Affected by consumption tax deductions and tariff adjustments in China this year, the refinery feedstock demand for fuel oil has significantly declined. In the bunker fuel sector, global high - sulfur bunker fuel from January to March increased by 2% year - on - year, Singapore remained basically flat, and the total bunker fuel was weaker year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs on global trade activities. [11] - Recently, Saudi Arabia's net imports have rebounded, and Egypt's purchases have continued. High - sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak season. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of the medium - term decline in the high - sulfur crack spread. With high domestic production scheduling, a short - selling approach should be maintained for the domestic - overseas spread of LU. [11] 3. Summary According to Relevant Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From June 4th to June 10th, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF Swap M1 increased by 4.72, Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO Swap M1 increased by 4.97, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.20, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 increased by 7.25, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased by 2.28, LGO - Brent M1 increased by 1.15, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 0.25 [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From June 4th to June 10th, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 7.10, Singapore 180cst M1 increased by 7.00, Singapore VLSFO M1 increased by 5.80, Singapore Gasoil M1 increased by 0.45, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 0.20, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 2.47 [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From June 4th to June 10th, 2025, the FOB price of 380cst increased by 7.51, the FOB price of VLSFO increased by 6.72, the 380 basis increased by 1.60, the high - sulfur domestic - overseas spread increased by 0.5, and the low - sulfur domestic - overseas spread increased by 0.3 [5] Domestic FU Data - From June 4th to June 10th, 2025, the price of FU 01 increased by 43, FU 05 increased by 31, FU 09 increased by 50, FU 01 - 05 increased by 12, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 19, and FU 09 - 01 increased by 7 [5] Domestic LU Data - From June 4th to June 10th, 2025, the price of LU 01 increased by 27, LU 05 increased by 41, LU 09 increased by 40, LU 01 - 05 decreased by 14, LU 05 - 09 increased by 1, and LU 09 - 01 increased by 13 [6]
沥青早报-20250611
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 02:03
s 加蒙期货 沥青早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/11 | | 指标 | 5/12 | 6/3 | 6/6 | 6/9 | 6/10 | 日度变化 | 間度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU主力合约 | 3481 | 3482 | 3200 | 3488 | 3483 | -5 | | | | BU06 | 3481 | 3479 | 3200 | 3516 | 3522 | 6 | 43 | | | BU09 | 3416 | 3456 | 3478 | 3488 | 3483 | -5 | 27 | | | BU12 | 3246 | 3291 | 3312 | 3320 | 3317 | -3 | 26 | | HETET | BU03 | 3226 | 3260 | 3247 | 3267 | 3255 | -12 | -5 | | | 成交量 | 325098 | 406179 | 269123 | 463328 | 365488 | -97840 | -40691 | | | 持仓量 | 38 ...
LPG早报-20250611
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 01:58
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the LPG market remain weak, with chemical demand in Shandong providing some support, but supply pressures are high and demand remains sluggish in other regions [1]. - It is expected that the external supply will continue to increase and the inbound volume will decline. Chemical demand is expected to be supported in the short - term, with the PDH operating rate expected to increase next week [1]. - As temperatures rise, combustion demand is expected to decline, while gasoline demand recovery is expected to drive up the demand for alkylated oil, and the demand for C4 from MTBE plants is also expected to increase [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - On a daily basis, civil gas prices increased in Shandong (+20 to 4620), East China (+40 to 4491), and South China (+20 to 4590); ether - post carbon four increased by 130 to 4810. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4491 [1]. - FEI and CP import costs increased, PP prices rose slightly, and the profits from FEI and CP for PP production increased. The PG futures fluctuated, with the basis of the 07 contract increasing by 37 to 372 and the 07 - 09 spread decreasing by 5 to 203 [1]. Weekly Situation - Last week, civil gas was generally weak, but Shandong rose due to chemical demand support, while ether - post carbon four declined. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4449. The PG futures fluctuated strongly, the basis of the 07 contract weakened to 351, and the spread strengthened significantly [1]. - Externally, FEI and MB were basically flat, CP declined, and the oil - gas ratio increased. The internal - external spread strengthened, especially PG - CP. The US - Asia arbitrage window closed, and freight rates rose slightly [1]. Variety Spreads - The production margin of PDH improved but remained poor; the production profit of FEI was higher than that of PP. The profitability of alkylated oil increased, the profit of gas fractionation and etherification changed little, and the profit of isomerization and etherification increased. FEI - MOPJ decreased, and the naphtha crack spread changed little [1]. Fundamental Situation - Port inventories increased slightly, and terminals actively offered discounts. Factory inventories increased, and Shandong factory inventories decreased due to chemical demand support. Arrivals increased (mainly in South China), and external supply increased significantly [1]. - Chemical demand is expected to be supported in the short - term, with the PDH operating rate basically flat and expected to increase next week. The demand for alkylated oil is expected to increase with the recovery of gasoline demand, and the demand for C4 from MTBE plants is expected to increase next week [1]. - As temperatures rise, combustion demand is expected to decline. In addition, the number of registered warrants is 9304 lots (-565) [1].
LPG早报-20250610
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 02:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall fundamentals of LPG remain weak, with chemical demand in Shandong providing some support, but supply pressure in other regions is high and demand continues to be sluggish. The expected increase in external sales volume and decrease in inbound volume. Chemical demand is expected to be supported in the short - term, and the PDH operating rate is expected to increase next week. Combustion demand is expected to decline as the temperature rises [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data - From 2025/06/03 to 2025/06/09, prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, etc. showed various changes. The daily changes were 20, 2, 10, 1, - 4 respectively. The arbitrage window is closed, the contract basis has weakened, and the monthly spread has strengthened significantly. The FEI and MB in the outer market are basically flat, CP has declined, and the oil - gas ratio has increased. The internal - external price difference has strengthened, especially PG - CP [1] 3.2 Weekly View - Factory inventories have increased, with Shandong factory inventories being depleted due to chemical demand. Arrivals have increased (mainly in South China), and external sales have increased significantly. It is expected that external sales will continue to increase and inbound volume will decline. Chemical demand is expected to be supported in the short - term, the PDH operating rate is basically flat and is expected to increase next week. The subsequent expected recovery in gasoline demand will drive up the demand for alkylated oil. The demand for C4 is expected to increase as several MTBE plants plan to start operations next week. Combustion demand is expected to decline as the temperature rises. The number of registered warehouse receipts is 9304 lots (-565) [1] 3.3 Daily Changes - In terms of civil gas, prices in Shandong, East China, and South China have increased. The price of ether - post - carbon four has increased. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas. FEI and CP import costs have increased, PP prices have increased, and the profits of FEI and CP for PP production have increased. The PG futures price has fluctuated upwards. The basis of the 07 contract has weakened, and the 07 - 09 monthly spread has strengthened. The US to Far East civil gas was generally weak last week. The port inventory has slightly increased, and the terminal has offered discounts [1]
燃料油早报-20250609
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 08:41
| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/09 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/05/30 | 395.10 | 440.25 | -0.25 | 574.08 | -133.83 | 16.18 | 45.15 | | 2025/06/03 | 397.26 | 449.90 | -2.56 | 599.32 | -149.42 | 16.85 | 52.64 | | 2025/06/04 | 391.22 | 442.85 | -2.37 | 589.89 | -147.04 | 16.42 | 51.63 | | ...
广发期货原木期货日报-20250609
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 06:56
2025年6月9日 曹剑兰 | ZOOJaREE | | --- | 原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 持续。当前盘面价格反弹,07合约将进入交割月迎来首次交割,后续交割成本逻辑支 | | --- | | 撑下盘面或有分歧。建议单边观望为主,本月主力将移仓至09合约,可关注月差变 | | 化,反套参与。 | | 数据来源:海关总署、木联数据、Wind、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。 | | 兜贡声明 | | 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料,但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映 | | 研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法,并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下,报告内容仅供参考,报告中的信息或所表 | | 这的意见并不够成所达品种买卖的出价或狗价,投资者据比投资,风险自控。本报告音在发送给广发明朗特定客户及其他专业人士、版权归 | | 广发期货所有,未经广发期货书面授权,任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发明货"。 | | 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | | 关注微 ...
燃料油早报-20250606
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 05:15
| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/06 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/05/29 | 402.08 | 441.90 | -0.11 | 583.08 | -141.18 | 16.29 | 39.82 | | 2025/05/30 | 395.10 | 440.25 | -0.25 | 574.08 | -133.83 | 16.18 | 45.15 | | 2025/06/03 | 397.26 | 449.90 | -2.56 | 599.32 | -149.42 | 16.85 | 52.64 | | ...
沥青早报-20250604
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 07:48
s 加蒙期货 沥青早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/4 | | 指标 | 4/30 | 5/26 | 5/30 | 5/30 | 6/3 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU主力合约 | 3408 | 3526 | 3457 | 3457 | 3482 | ટર | -44 | | | BU06 | 3408 | 3539 | 3452 | 3452 | 3479 | 27 | -60 | | | BU09 | 3351 | 3478 | 3414 | 3414 | 3456 | 42 | -22 | | | BU12 | 3215 | 3297 | 3237 | 3237 | 3291 | 54 | -6 | | HET | BU03 | 3246 | 3258 | 3201 | 3201 | 3260 | ਦੇਰੇ | 2 | | | 成交量 | 280344 | 392268 | 579926 | 579926 | 406179 | -173747 | 13911 | | | 持仓 ...
6月3日股指期货套利监测日报
news flash· 2025-06-03 07:08
6月3日股指期货套利监测日报 金十期货6月3日讯, 2.月差:沪深300IF2506-2507价差为37.2,上证50IH2506-2507价差为30.6,中证500IC2506-2507价差为 70.6,中证1000IM2506-2507价差为88.2。 1.基差:沪深300 IF2506合约贴水27.21,上证50 IH2506合约贴水18.7,中证500 IC2506合约贴水56.44, 中证1000 IM2506合约贴水72.04; ...