Core Viewpoint - The acceleration of inflation in the U.S. is impacting consumer confidence, leading to a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a focus on non-farm employment and inflation data [1] Group 1 - U.S. inflation is rising, which is causing a decline in consumer confidence [1] - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September [1] - The U.S. stock market is entering a performance gap in September, which may increase market volatility [1]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 9670, with a recent increase of 3.62% from an opening price of 9394, reaching a high of 9771 and a low of 9385, indicating a bullish short-term trend [1] - The U.S. personal spending for July recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, while the core PCE price index year-on-year was at 2.9%, also meeting expectations [2] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of softening, with an average monthly job increase of 35,000 over the past three months, significantly lower than the 123,000 in the same period last year [2] Group 2 - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for August recorded a final value of 58.2, below the expected 58.6, reflecting a decline of approximately 6% from July [3] - Concerns over high prices have led to a decrease in durable goods purchasing conditions to the lowest point in a year, with personal financial conditions declining by 7% [3] - The silver market is currently in a strong bullish trend, with key support around 9500; a drop below this level may signal a potential peak [3]

Market Overview - International gold prices saw a significant increase, opening at $3410.91 per ounce and closing at $3445.48 per ounce, with a peak of $3447.63 per ounce on August 29 [1]. Economic Data - In July, U.S. personal spending rose by 0.5%, matching market expectations, while the core PCE price index year-on-year was recorded at 2.9%, also in line with expectations [2]. - The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to rise, with 63% of consumers anticipating an increase in the unemployment rate over the next year, reflecting growing concerns about the economic outlook [4]. Consumer Confidence - The final consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for August dropped to 58.2, down from 61.7 in July, indicating a decline in consumer sentiment [3][4]. - Concerns over high prices have led to a decrease in the conditions for purchasing durable goods, reaching a one-year low [3]. Federal Reserve Insights - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is at 12.6%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is at 87.4% [8]. - Federal Reserve officials are facing a tension between inflation targets and labor market conditions, with discussions around potential policy adjustments [4]. Trade and Tariff Developments - A U.S. appeals court ruled that many of President Trump's global tariff measures are illegal, stating that the president exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act [6]. - The court's decision allows the tariffs to remain in effect until October 14, pending an appeal to the Supreme Court [6]. Geopolitical Context - The European Commission has plans to send troops to Ukraine, with ongoing discussions with the U.S. regarding support for Ukraine's armed forces [7]. - Germany and France are advocating for secondary sanctions aimed at weakening Russia's war funding capabilities [7]. Gold ETF Holdings - The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF, increased its holdings by 9.74 tons, bringing the total to 977.68 tons [7].

Core Viewpoint - The gold futures market saw a significant increase in prices, with December 2025 gold futures rising by $41.8 to close at $3,516.1 per ounce, marking a 1.20% increase. Silver futures also experienced a rise, closing at $40.750 per ounce, up 2.64% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - December gold futures surged due to technical buying and a sell-off in the U.S. stock market, breaking the $3,500 per ounce mark and reaching a three-week high [1]. - The increase in gold prices was supported by economic data released on the same day, indicating a favorable market environment for precious metals [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for August was reported at 58.2, a decline of approximately 6% from July, marking the first decrease in four months [1]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for July remained unchanged year-on-year at 2.6%, still above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%. The core inflation rate rose to 2.9%, the highest level since February [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in gold and silver futures prices on August 29, driven by technical buying and a sell-off in the U.S. stock market [1] - The December 2025 gold futures price rose by $41.8, closing at $3,516.1 per ounce, marking a 1.20% increase [1] - The December silver futures price increased by 104.7 cents, closing at $40.750 per ounce, with a rise of 2.64% [1] Group 2 - Economic data released on the same day indicated a decline in U.S. consumer confidence, with the University of Michigan's index falling to 58.2 in August, a decrease of approximately 6% from July [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index remained unchanged at 2.6% year-on-year for July, still above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2% [1] - The core inflation rate rose to 2.9%, the highest level since February [1]

Core Insights - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. for August is reported at 58.2, marking a decline of approximately 6% from July, and is the first decrease in four months [1] - The current economic conditions index fell from 68.0 in July to 61.7, while the consumer expectations index dropped from 57.7 to 55.9, which is also lower than the 72.1 recorded in August of the previous year [1] - A significant 43% of respondents indicated that high prices are affecting their standard of living, an increase from 39% in July, representing the highest level in nearly five months [1] Economic Environment - The trade environment continues to pose threats to various aspects of the economy, despite consumers no longer fearing catastrophic scenarios following the tariff announcements in April [1] - The percentage of respondents mentioning tariffs or taxes as negative factors for car purchases rose from 57% in July to nearly 62% in August, the highest level since May [1] - Respondents generally expect high price pressures to persist for an extended period [1] Labor Market Expectations - Following a slight improvement in July, expectations for the U.S. labor market worsened in August, with approximately 63% of respondents anticipating an increase in the unemployment rate over the next year, up from 37% in the same period last year [1]

Core Insights - The final consumer confidence index for August in the U.S. is reported at 58.2, marking a decline of approximately 6% from July, and is the first decrease in four months [1] - The current economic conditions index fell from 68.0 in July to 61.7, while the consumer expectations index dropped from 57.7 to 55.9, which is also lower than the 72.1 recorded in August of the previous year [1] - A significant 43% of respondents indicated that high prices are affecting their living standards, an increase from 39% in July, representing the highest level in nearly five months [1] - Approximately 63% of respondents expect the unemployment rate to rise over the next year, up from 37% in the same period last year, indicating a deterioration in labor market expectations [1]

Core Insights - The final consumer confidence index for August from the University of Michigan in the United States is reported at 58.2, which is below the forecast of 58.6 and unchanged from the previous value of 58.6 [1] Summary by Category - **Consumer Confidence Index** - The final value for August is 58.2 - The forecast was 58.6 - The previous value was also 58.6 [1]

Core Insights - The American consumer confidence index decreased from a revised 98.7 in July to 97.4 in August, indicating growing concerns about employment and income overshadowing optimism about the current and future business environment [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence - The assessment index for current business and employment market conditions fell by 1.6 points to 131.2 [1] - The consumer expectations index, reflecting short-term income prospects and business conditions, dropped by 1.2 points to 74.8, significantly below the recession warning threshold of 80 [1] Group 2: Employment and Income Outlook - Consumer evaluations of current employment conditions have declined for the eighth consecutive month, while expectations for current business conditions have improved, somewhat offsetting the decline in the current index [1] - There is a slight increase in consumer pessimism regarding future employment conditions and a decrease in optimism about future income [1] Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Concerns - Consumers are increasingly concerned about tariffs, which are linked to worries about rising prices [1] - The average inflation expectation for the next 12 months rose to 6.2% in August, up from 5.7% in July, but still below the peak of 7.0% in April [1]

Group 1 - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. for August is reported at 97.4, showing a slight decline of 1.3 from July's revised data [1] - The present situation index, which assesses consumers' views on current business and labor market conditions, is at 131.2, down 1.6 from July [1] - The expectations index, reflecting consumers' short-term outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions, stands at 74.8, a decrease of 1.2 from July [1] Group 2 - The consumer confidence index for individuals under 35 has decreased, while those aged 35 to 55 remained stable, and the index for those over 55 has increased [1] - Concerns regarding tariffs have risen among consumers, with worries that tariffs may lead to increased prices and inflation rates [2] - The average inflation expectation for the next 12 months has increased to 6.2% in August, up from 5.7% in July, although it remains below the peak of 7% in April [2]