交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2025-06-16 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，五一小长假结束，国内出栏积极性减弱生猪价格节前小幅反弹节后或回归弱势 ，预计节后本周供给或猪、肉双减。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期偏悲观，五一假期结束居民整体 消费意愿热情回落，压制短期鲜猪肉消费，前期中国对美国和加拿大猪肉进口加征关税，提振市场 信心。综合来看，预计本周市场或供需双减、猪价短期回归震荡格局。关注月中集团场出栏节奏变 化、二次育肥市场动态变化情况。中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价13990元/吨，2509合约基差200元/吨，现货升水期货。偏多。 ...

农林牧渔 2025 年 06 月 12 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《生猪降重或进一步抬升 2025H2 猪 价，供给收缩及需求支撑驱动牛价稳 步上移—行业周报》-2025.6.8 ——行业点评报告 | 陈雪丽（分析师） | 王高展（联系人） | 朱本伦（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | chenxueli@kysec.cn | wanggaozhan@kysec.cn | zhubenlun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030001 | 证书编号：S0790123060055 | 证书编号：S0790124060020 | 行业：5 月大猪出栏释放，2025H2 猪价不悲观 情绪催化大猪出栏致 5 月猪价承压，供给压力前置释放叠加缺口传导将至， 2025H2 猪价不悲观。据涌益咨询，2025 年 5 月全国生猪销售均价 14.61 元/公斤， 环比-1.31%，同比-7.49%。涌益监控样本 ...

大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2025-06-10 生猪： CONTENTS 目 录 1. 基本面：供应方面，五一小长假结束，国内出栏积极性减弱生猪价格节前小幅反弹节后或回归弱势 ，预计节后本周供给或猪、肉双减。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期偏悲观，五一假期结束居民整体 消费意愿热情回落，压制短期鲜猪肉消费，前期中国对美国和加拿大猪肉进口加征关税，提振市场 信心。综合来看，预计本周市场或供需双减、猪价短期呈震荡偏弱格局。关注月中集团场出栏节奏 变化、二次育肥市场动态变化情况。中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价13910元/吨，2509合约基差435元/吨，现货升水期货。偏多。 3. 库存：截至3月31日，生猪存栏量41731万头，环比减少0.8%，同比减少2.2% ...

Core Insights - The sales performance of leading pig farming companies in May 2025 showed a general decline in sales volume and revenue amid low pig prices, although some companies experienced growth in sales [1][2][3][4]. Sales Performance Summary - Giant Agricultural's sales volume in May 2025 reached 328,000 pigs, a year-on-year increase of 61.50%, but a slight decline compared to April [2]. - Aonong Biological reported a sales volume of 156,200 pigs in May 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 9.44% and a month-on-month increase of 17.63% [2]. - Muyuan Foods sold 6.406 million pigs in May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.42%, with sales revenue of 12.258 billion yuan, up 26.93% year-on-year, but down from April's sales [2][3]. - Wens Foodstuffs sold 3.1554 million pigs in May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 32.64%, with sales revenue of 5.323 billion yuan, up 14.23% year-on-year, but also down from April [3]. - New Hope reported a sales volume of 1.3339 million pigs in May 2025, a month-on-month decrease of 16.42% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.41% [3]. Price Trends - The average selling price of pigs decreased for major companies in May 2025, with Muyuan Foods reporting an average price of 14.52 yuan/kg, down 6.44% year-on-year [5][6]. - Wens Foods reported an average price of 14.68 yuan/kg, down 7.26% year-on-year [5][6]. - New Hope's average price was 14.59 yuan/kg, down 5.38% year-on-year [6]. Stock Performance - Despite the decline in pig prices, stock prices of leading companies have shown strength, with Muyuan Foods' stock rising 4.11% on June 9, 2025, and a cumulative increase of over 12% since May [6]. - Wens Foods' stock also increased by 4.05% on June 9, 2025, with a cumulative increase of over 9% since May [6]. Market Outlook - The market is currently experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with increased supply due to heavier slaughtering and weak demand as the weather warms [6].

Core Viewpoint - New Hope Liuhe Co., Ltd. reported a decline in both pig sales volume and revenue in May, indicating challenges in the pig farming industry due to falling prices and market conditions [1][2]. Company Summary - In May, New Hope sold 1.3339 million pigs, generating revenue of 1.972 billion yuan, both figures showing a year-on-year and month-on-month decline [1]. - For the first five months of the year, the company achieved cumulative pig sales of 7.1193 million heads and sales revenue of 10.182 billion yuan [1]. - The average selling price of pigs in May was 14.59 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.75% decrease month-on-month and a 5.38% decrease year-on-year [1]. - New Hope aims to drive business growth through its feed, pig farming, and slaughtering segments, focusing on "flexible management, continuous cost reduction, and improving labor efficiency" [1]. Industry Summary - The pig market is currently characterized by a "strong supply and weak demand" situation, leading to a downward trend in prices [2]. - Analysts predict that the profitability of pig farming enterprises will show a divergence, with larger companies maintaining profitability due to cost advantages, while smaller enterprises may continue to face pressure [3]. - Despite low prices, the overall expansion in the industry is limited, and New Hope remains cautiously optimistic about the year, having achieved slight profits in the first quarter [3].

Group 1 - The average price of pork in China's wholesale market has decreased by 9.3% from January to May, indicating a downward trend in pork prices this year [1] - The prices of live pigs and pork have dropped from 16.57 yuan/kg and 27.75 yuan/kg in January to 14.93 yuan/kg and 25.68 yuan/kg in May, with cumulative declines of 9.9% and 7.5% respectively [1] - The price of piglets has increased by 19% this year, rising from 32.77 yuan/kg in January to 39.01 yuan/kg in May, although there has been a recent slight decline in the growth rate [1][2] Group 2 - The recovery in consumer demand has supported pork prices despite a significant increase in the supply of commodity pigs [2] - From January to April, the number of pigs slaughtered increased by 10.9% year-on-year, with April showing a 20% increase compared to the same month last year [2] - The decline in frozen product inventory has boosted the demand for fresh pork in the catering sector [2] Group 3 - The pig farming industry remains profitable, with average profits per head dropping below 100 yuan as of April 2025, despite a decline in pork prices [3] - Production costs for pig farming are at their lowest since 2019, aided by lower feed prices and improved breeding efficiency [3] - The number of breeding sows has increased slightly, indicating a potential rise in pig supply in the second half of the year [3] Group 4 - Seasonal price increases for pork are expected in the second half of the year, but the year-on-year growth will be significantly lower than in previous years [4] - Farmers are advised to manage their sales strategies carefully to avoid high costs associated with piglet purchases and secondary fattening [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second and third quarters, the supply of live pigs will remain abundant, and the demand boost will be limited. The market supply - demand pattern will show an oversupply situation, with the overall fundamentals being weak. Pig prices will continue to be under pressure. Although the Dragon Boat Festival stocking, secondary fattening, and frozen product warehousing will provide some support to pig prices, the support may be limited. It is expected that future pig prices will maintain a low - level oscillation [7][127]. - It is expected that the main live pig contract in June may maintain a low - level oscillation. It is advisable to focus on the support around 13,000 yuan/ton. Operationally, it is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach, while aggressive investors can consider trying to go long at low prices when the opportunity arises [7][8][129]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - In May 2025, the price of the main live pig futures contract LH2509 fluctuated between 13,380 - 14,060 yuan/ton, showing a downward - oscillating trend and a slight decline for the month. As of the close on Friday, May 30, 2025, the main live pig contract LH2509 fell by 305 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.19%, closing at 13,605 yuan/ton [5][12]. Spot Price - As of May 22, 2025, the national average live pig price was 14.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.28 yuan/kg from the previous month. From a seasonal perspective, the current national average live pig price is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [18]. - As of May 30, 2025, the average price of二元sows was 32.53 yuan/kg, a slight increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous month. As of May 22, 2025, the average price of piglets was 39.01 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.51 yuan/kg from the previous month [22]. - As of May 30, 2025, the prices of 20 - kg外三元piglets in Baoding, Hebei; Linyi, Shandong; and Kaifeng, Henan were 36 yuan/kg, 35.78 yuan/kg, and 35.63 yuan/kg respectively, all showing a slight decline from the previous week [26]. Supply - Demand Balance Situation Global Live Pig Supply - Demand Balance Situation - According to the USDA report, it is estimated that in 2024, the global live pig supply - demand gap was 16,369 thousand heads, a year - on - year decrease of 6,467 thousand heads. The global pork supply - demand gap was 1,434 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 594 thousand tons [33]. China's Live Pig Supply - Demand Balance Situation - According to the USDA report, it is estimated that in 2024, China's live pig supply - demand gap was - 20,000 thousand heads, a year - on - year decrease of 10,629 thousand heads. China's pork supply - demand gap was - 1,202 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 599 thousand tons [39]. Supply - Side Situation - As of March 2025, the national live pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. From a seasonal perspective, the live pig inventory was at a relatively low level in history [45]. - As of April 2025, the national能繁sow inventory was 40.38 million heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads from the previous month, basically the same as the previous month; a year - on - year increase of 520,000 heads, an increase of 1.3%. From a seasonal perspective, the能繁sow inventory was at a relatively low level in history [50]. - As of March 2025, the national pork production was 16.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons, a decrease of 1.2%. From a seasonal perspective, the pork production was at the historical average level [55]. - In April 2025, China's monthly pork imports were 80,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.1%. From a seasonal perspective, the monthly import volume was at a relatively low level in the past five years [58]. Demand - Side Situation - In April 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises in China was 30.77 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 140,000 heads, an increase of 0.46%. From a seasonal perspective, the monthly slaughter volume was at a relatively high level in the past five years [66]. - As of March 31, 2025, the cumulative output of major meats nationwide was 25.4 million tons, of which the cumulative pork output was 16.02 million tons, accounting for 63.07% [70]. Spread Analysis - As of May 29, 2025, the spread between the pork wholesale price and the white - striped chicken wholesale price was 3.48 yuan/kg, and the spread between the pork wholesale price and the mutton wholesale price was - 39.06 yuan/kg. From a seasonal perspective, the spread between the pork wholesale price and the white - striped chicken wholesale price was at a relatively low level in the past five years [78]. - As of May 29, 2025, the spread between the pork wholesale price and the beef wholesale price was - 42.96 yuan/kg, and the spread between the pork wholesale price and the egg wholesale price was 13.09 yuan/kg. From a seasonal perspective, the spread between the pork wholesale price and the beef wholesale price was at a relatively high level in the past five years [85]. Feed Supply - Demand Analysis - As of May 22, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2.45 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.54%. As of May 22, 2025, the average spot price of soybean meal was 3.51 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 2.77 and a year - on - year decrease of 6.4% [89]. - As of April 2025, the feed output was 26.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From a seasonal perspective, the feed output was at a relatively high level in history [95]. Breeding Benefit Analysis - As of May 30, 2025, the breeding profit of purchasing piglets was - 84.37 yuan/head. From a seasonal perspective, the breeding profit of purchasing piglets was at the historical average level [102]. - As of May 30, 2025, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was 35.65 yuan/head. From a seasonal perspective, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was at the historical average level [107]. - As of May 30, 2025, the breeding profit of broilers was - 0.38 yuan/bird. From a seasonal perspective, the breeding profit of broilers was at the historical average level [115]. Pig - Grain Ratio - As of May 30, 2025, the pig - grain ratio in China was 6.16, currently in the normal range [120]. Impact of Recent Tariff Policies on Pig Prices Recent Tariff Policies - Since March 10, 2025, China has imposed an additional 10% tariff on pork, beef, aquatic products, etc. originating from the United States as a counter - measure [121]. - Since March 20, 2025, China has imposed an additional 25% tariff on Canadian pork as a counter - measure [121]. - Since April 10, 2025, China has imposed an additional 34% tariff on all imported goods originating from the United States [121]. - Since April 10, 2025, China has adjusted the additional tariff rate on all imported goods originating from the United States from 34% to 84% [122]. - Since April 12, 2025, China has adjusted the additional tariff rate on all imported goods originating from the United States from 84% to 125% [122]. - Since May 14, 2025, China has adjusted the additional tariff measures on imported goods originating from the United States: the additional tariff rate has been adjusted from 34% to 10%, and the 24% additional tariff rate on the United States will be suspended for 90 days [123]. Impact on Pig Prices - In 2024, China's total imported pork was 1.07 million tons, accounting for only 2.29% of domestic pork production and 1.85% of domestic total demand, having a very limited impact on domestic supply and demand. In 2024, pork imported from the United States accounted for about 6.8% of the total imports, and pork imported from Canada accounted for about 10% of the total imports. Overall, the tariff policies have a small impact on China's live pig market and mainly boost market sentiment [124]. Fundamental Analysis - In May 2025, the national average live pig price decreased slightly from the previous month;二元sows increased slightly; and piglet prices decreased slightly from the previous month [125]. - Supply - side: At the end of April, the national能繁sow inventory was 40.38 million heads, basically the same as the previous month; a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. Calculated from the能繁sow inventory, the supply will continue to increase in the second and third quarters. In April 2025, the pork import volume decreased by 7.1% year - on - year and 11.1% month - on - month, reaching a historical low. In late May 2025, large - scale pig enterprises accelerated the slaughter rhythm, and the market volume of live pigs increased month - on - month. With the gradual increase in temperature, the enthusiasm of individual farmers to slaughter large pigs has increased, intensifying the phased supply pressure [125]. - Demand - side: At the end of April, the slaughter volume increased slightly month - on - month, reaching a historical high. The Dragon Boat Festival stocking showed some improvement, but the demand declined seasonally after the festival. With the gradual increase in temperature, the terminal demand was weak, and the procurement volume of households and the catering industry decreased month - on - month. At the same time, as pig prices fell, secondary fattening in the north also increased. White - striped meat dealers were waiting and seeing about future prices and mainly purchased based on rigid demand. The pork price lacked the driving force for an increase. Frozen products continued to be warehoused, but mainly passively, with less active warehousing [125][126]. - In terms of live pig breeding profit, in May 2025, the overall breeding profit showed a downward - oscillating trend. The breeding profit of purchasing piglets declined significantly from the previous month, turning from profit to loss; the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs decreased significantly from the previous month but remained in a profitable state [126].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply and demand of the pig market are in a stalemate, and the pig price is in a narrow - range shock. The futures market trend depends highly on market sentiment. The supply and demand of the main 09 contract are expected to weaken, and it is recommended to take a short - term bearish view, with the pressure level referring to 13,800 [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Viewpoints and Strategies - **Fundamental Views**: The spot price of live pigs fluctuated narrowly this week, with the national average live pig slaughter price at 14.46 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 1.70% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.42%. In the short term, the pig price is in a stalemate. The number of fertile sows decreased slightly in Q1 2025, but the production capacity is still sufficient. If pork consumption does not increase significantly, the upward space of the pig price before September 2025 may be limited. The supply of pork this year is relatively abundant, and the support from the supply and demand sides to the market is still relatively limited [7]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The supply and demand expectations of the main 09 contract are weakening. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish view, with the pressure level referring to 13,800 [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Live Pig Futures and Spot Prices**: The spot price of live pigs fluctuated narrowly this week. The national average live pig slaughter price was 14.46 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.25 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 1.70%, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.42%. The terminal consumption is weakening, but the second - fattening may enter the market to support, and the slaughter enterprises adopt a strategy of reducing volume to support prices [15]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: Not provided in the content. - **Standard - Fat and Gross - White Price Spreads**: The regional standard - fat price spreads rose and fell this week, with differences between the north and the south. The price of fat pigs in the north was inverted, and the price of standard pigs in the south drove up the price of fat pigs. However, as the weather gets hotter, the standard - fat price spread will continue to narrow [25]. - **Prices of Piglets and Binary Sows**: The national average price of 7 - kg weaned piglets this week was 510.48 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.38%. The piglet market was stable on the surface but declined secretly, and the trading activity was low [29]. - **Price of Culled Sows**: The average price of culled sows this week was 10.97 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.47% and a year - on - year increase of 2.24%. It is expected that the price of culled sows may be weakly stable next week [32]. 3.3. Production Capacity - **Inventory of Fertile Sows**: In late March 2025, the inventory of fertile sows was 40.39 million, a quarterly decrease of 0.96% compared with late December 2024. According to the statistics of 208 sample enterprises, in April, the inventory of fertile sows in 123 large - scale farms increased by 0.36% month - on - month and 4.31% year - on - year; the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 1.61% month - on - month and 10.15% year - on - year. It is expected that the inventory of fertile sows in May will be generally stable with minor adjustments [36][40]. - **Elimination Volume of Fertile Sows**: According to the statistics of 208 sample enterprises, in April, the elimination volume of fertile sows in 123 large - scale farms decreased by 0.11% month - on - month and 3.08% year - on - year; the elimination volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased by 2.94% month - on - month and increased by 9.61% year - on - year. It is expected that the elimination volume in May will be difficult to increase [43]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Inventory of Commercial Pigs**: In April, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 35.4824 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year increase of 6.28%; the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 1.4321 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.91% and a year - on - year increase of 10.98%. It is expected that the inventory in May will continue to increase month - on - month [50]. - **Slaughter Volume of Commercial Pigs**: In April, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 10.8565 million, a month - on - month increase of 4.46% and a year - on - year increase of 26.58%; the slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 0.497 million, a month - on - month increase of 4.09% and a year - on - year increase of 74.89%. It is expected that the slaughter volume in May will increase month - on - month [53]. - **Average Slaughter Weight of Commercial Pigs**: The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary live pigs this week was 124.13 kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. It is expected that the average slaughter weight next week will be generally stable with a slight decrease [58]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Slaughter Volume of Live Pigs**: The terminal consumption is weak, the fresh - sales rate of slaughter enterprises is at a high level, and the frozen - product storage rate is at a low level. The frozen products are in the de - stocking stage, and the impact on the pig price is limited [67]. - **Slaughter Rate and Fresh - Sales Rate of Slaughter Enterprises**: The slaughter rate of slaughter enterprises this week was 28.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.44 percentage points. It is expected to continue to rise slightly next week [69]. 3.6. Cost and Profit - **Profit of Pig Breeding and Slaughter**: This week, the average weekly profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 104.44 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 17.79 yuan/head; the average weekly profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 46.41 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 10.28 yuan/head. The cost improvement could not effectively offset the decline in pig prices [82]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: This week, the pig - grain ratio was 6.10, a week - on - week decrease of 2.13%. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly and stably next week [89].

今年，养殖端产能释放。从3月直到5月中旬，猪价基本处于持续横盘状态，难涨难跌。 猪价年内低点 是否已过？机构分析，5—10月猪价或震荡下滑，年内低点或出现在四季度。 据农业农村部监测，5月16日，全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.94元/公斤，与上周五（5月9 日）的20.62元/公斤相比，上涨1.6%。本周的平均价格为20.88元/公斤，与上周均价持平。 本周国内生 猪价格以下跌为主，周均价环比下滑。 另据中国养猪网的数据，5月16日，生猪（外三元）价格为14.74元/公斤，与上周五（5月9日）的14.86 元/公斤相比，下降0.8%。从一周均价来看，本周生猪均价为14.81元/公斤，与上周14.87元/公斤相比， 下降0.4%。 在供应方面，自2024年5月起，国内能繁母猪存栏量开始增加，到2025年3月，适重生猪供应能力有所回 升。2025年4月至9月，生猪出栏水平预计会显著提升。因此，2025年5月国内适重猪源供应将增加，标 猪出栏计划也会增多。春节后养殖端控重挺价，中小标猪出栏意愿不高，导致当前生猪出栏均重达到 124.12公斤。随着南北地区气温的上升，标肥价差倒挂明显， 市场对中大猪的需求不足 ...

智通财经5月17日电，据农业农村部监测，5月16日，全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.94元/公 斤，与上周五（5月9日）的20.62元/公斤相比，上涨1.6%。本周的平均价格为20.88元/公斤，与上周均 价持平。本周国内生猪价格下跌为主，周均价环比下滑。据中国养猪网的数据，5月16日，生猪（外三 元）价格为14.74元/公斤，与上周五（5月9日）的14.86元/公斤相比，下降0.8%。从一周均价来看，本 周生猪均价为14.81元/公斤，与上周14.87元/公斤相比，下降0.4%。开源证券认为，4月猪价淡季不淡， 5月供给缺口传导将至叠加需求边际向好，猪价中枢或进一步抬升。展望后市，供给端前期能繁淘汰缺 口及冬春季腹泻病毒变异流行仔猪损失缺口传导将至，5月生猪出栏增量有限，需求端猪肉消费边际向 好。内外因素共同驱动下，5月猪价中枢或延续抬升态势，2025年猪价中枢有支撑。 (澎湃) 本周猪价继续下探 机构预计今年猪价中枢有支撑 ...