Core Viewpoint - The swine breeding industry is experiencing a gradual capacity reduction, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics in the future, despite ongoing short-term oversupply and industry losses [1][5][14]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand situation for swine is expected to improve, with continued oversupply pressure in the first half of 2026, leading to sustained industry losses [1][5][17]. - The average price of live pigs in China for January to November 2025 was 14.64 CNY/kg, with a projected annual average of 14.5 CNY/kg, down from 17 CNY/kg in 2024 [15]. - The number of breeding sows in China decreased to 39.9 million by October 2025, marking a 1.1% month-on-month decline and a 2.2% year-on-year decline, indicating a confirmed trend of capacity reduction [6][18]. Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The capacity reduction is driven by a combination of industry losses and policy regulations, with the Ministry of Agriculture holding multiple meetings to discuss capacity control measures [7][18]. - Key regulatory measures include reducing the number of breeding sows, maintaining a slaughter weight limit of 120 kg, and restricting financial support for new capacity projects [18][20]. Group 3: Industry Structure and Efficiency - The concentration of the swine breeding industry has increased, with the market share of the top ten listed companies rising to 24.98% in the first half of 2025, up 1.27 percentage points from 2024 [20]. - The average pigs per sow (PSY) is expected to improve, with a projected increase to 24.03 heads in 2024, and leading companies like Muyuan Foods achieving a PSY of 29 by September 2025 [20]. Group 4: Cost and Profitability - Cost management is identified as a critical factor for companies to achieve excess returns and long-term growth, especially during down cycles [1][14]. - The industry is expected to see significant differentiation in performance, with companies that have cost advantages likely to maintain moderate expansion, while less efficient producers face further elimination [1][14]. Group 5: Market Outlook and Consumer Demand - The demand for pork is projected to remain stable, with 2024 pork production and sales estimated at 57.06 million tons, and a slight increase in consumption expected in 2026 due to government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [22][23]. - Seasonal fluctuations in demand are anticipated, with a notable increase in piglet numbers in early 2025, but supply pressures are expected to persist into the first half of 2026, particularly around the Lunar New Year [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The current supply - demand pattern of the pig market is still loose, which restricts price movements. When prices fall to a low level, the supply - demand game intensifies, causing price fluctuations. It is expected that prices will adjust weakly at a low level. It is recommended to short on rebounds and conduct rolling operations, and pay attention to setting stop - losses [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Pig prices fluctuated, and the main contract 2601 rose 0.42% weekly [7] - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, large - scale farms are expected to resume slaughter to meet the annual slaughter plan, but price drops may lead to some small - scale farmers' reluctance to sell, slightly reducing the pressure. Second - fattening participants are currently cautious. On the demand side, due to temperature fluctuations, the slaughterhouse's operating rate declined last week, indicating limited improvement in terminal demand. Overall, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and prices are expected to adjust weakly at a low level [7] 3.2. Futures Market Situation - **Price Movement**: Futures prices rose slightly this week, with the main contract 2601 rising 0.42% weekly [7][11] - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 7, the net short position of the top 20 holders in pig futures increased by 1662 lots to 31505 lots, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 90, a decrease of 116 from the previous week [17] - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2601 and lh2603 contracts was 400, and the spread between lh2601 and lh2605 contracts was - 140 [23] 3.3. Spot Market Situation - **Base Difference**: This week, the base difference of the November contract was - 200 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the January contract was 135 yuan/ton [28] - **Spot Price**: The national average pig price was 11.99 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.52 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 23.62 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.48 yuan/kg from last week [37] - **Pork and Sow Prices**: In the week of October 30, the national average pork price was 23.25 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.14 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows last week was 32.47 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week [42] - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of October 29, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 5.54, an increase of 0.29 from the previous week [46] 3.4. Upstream Situation - **Sow Inventory**: In the third quarter of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 tons (0.2%) from the previous quarter and a 0.7% year - on - year decrease. According to Mysteel data, in October, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms increased by 0.12% month - on - month and 0.83% year - on - year, while that in 85 small - scale farms decreased by 0.14% month - on - month and increased by 0.89% year - on - year [51] - **Pig Inventory**: In the third quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million, a 2.9% increase from the previous quarter and a 2.3% year - on - year increase. According to Mysteel data, in October, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 0.10% month - on - month and 5.16% year - on - year, and that in 85 small - scale farms increased by 1.84% month - on - month and 6.45% year - on - year [55] - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In October, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 11.4395 million, a 11.96% increase from the previous month and a 17.56% year - on - year increase. The slaughter volume of 85 small - scale farms was 0.5258 million, a 9.48% increase from the previous month and a 27.06% year - on - year increase. The average slaughter weight of national ternary pigs this week was 123.25 kg, an increase of 0.01 kg from last week [60] 3.5. Industry Situation - **Breeding Profits**: As of November 7, the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 175.54 yuan/head, with the loss narrowing by 4.18 yuan/head; the loss of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 89.21 yuan/head, with the loss decreasing by 0.12 yuan/head. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.47 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/head week - on - week, and the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was - 0.74 yuan/head [63] - **Pork Imports**: In September, China's pork imports were 80,000 tons, a 20% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, pork imports were 790,000 tons, a 1.25% year - on - year decrease [69] - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of November 7, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.8 yuan/kg, the same as last week. As of the week of November 6, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.69 yuan/kg, narrowing by 0.03 yuan/kg from last week [74] - **Feed Situation**: As of November 7, the spot price of soybean meal was 3097.71 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2238.53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.47 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 898.59. The price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.33 yuan/kg, the same as last week. In September 2025, the monthly feed output was 31.287 million tons, an increase of 2.015 million tons from the previous month. The sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.01% month - on - month and increased by 71.08% year - on - year [79][82][88] - **CPI**: As of September 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [92] 3.6. Downstream Situation - **Slaughter and Inventory**: In the 45th week, the slaughterhouse's operating rate was 33.47%, a decrease of 1.84 percentage points from last week and a 5.28 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The frozen - product storage rate was 18.24%, a slight increase of 0.02% from last week [95] - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of September 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 35.84 million, a 6.99% increase from the previous month. In September 2025, the national catering revenue was 450.9 billion yuan, a 0.9% year - on - year increase [100] 3.7. Pig - Related Stocks - The document mentions the stock trends of Muyuan and Wens, but specific data is not provided [101]

Report Title - 202501031 Zhonghui Futures Monthly Report on Live Pigs: Limited Acceleration in Capacity Reduction, Beware of Rebound Risks in Peak Season [1] Core Viewpoints - Short - and medium - term trading follows fundamental logic, with the futures market showing signs of bottoming. There may be a certain warming opportunity in the peak season due to improved demand and structural support from large pigs, but the rebound height in Q4 is expected to be limited. The far - month contracts can be strategically bullish in the long - term, subject to policy influence. It is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts, beware of the rebound risk of the peak - season 01 contract after bottom - probing, and also consider shorting opportunities for the off - season 03 contract. Pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities during the downward repair of the far - month premium [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot Performance - **Live Pig Spot Prices**: This week, the national live pig spot price rebounded to 12.54 yuan/kg, with prices in other provinces also rebounding to varying degrees. For example, the price in Henan rebounded to 12.74 yuan/kg, in Jiangsu to 12.86 yuan/kg, in Hunan to 12.1 yuan/kg, in Chongqing it remained stable at 13.25 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan it rebounded to 12.2 yuan/kg [3][16]. - **Sow Prices**: The average price of culled sows rebounded slightly, up 0.68 yuan to 8.97 yuan/kg. The average price of二元sows decreased by 14.28 yuan/head to 1529.52 yuan/head. Due to weak demand from farmers, the price of二元sows is expected to continue its weak performance [3][18]. - **Piglet Prices**: The national 7kg piglet出栏price increased by 17.62 yuan to 182.86 yuan/head, and the 15kg piglet price increased by 20 yuan to 260.8 yuan/kg. It is speculated that small - scale farmers are entering the market by purchasing piglets [3][20]. 2. Logic and Outlook - **Price Movement Logic**: Before mid - October, due to the loose supply - demand pattern, both the futures and spot prices of live pigs declined. After the price reached a new low in the 10 - yuan range, farmers' willingness to hold prices increased. The widening of the standard - fat price difference in North and Northeast China led to more farmers delaying sales and second - fattening, supporting a staged price rebound. However, the short - selling pressure on the futures market remains significant [4]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals** - **Supply**: In the short term, the supply pressure remains high. The planned出栏of large - scale farms has increased, the出栏weight is relatively high, and the inventory structure supports high supply pressure in Q4. Although the inventory of large pigs supports the peak season to some extent, the subsequent pressure from second - fattening is obvious. The reduction of the breeding sow inventory is not significantly accelerating, and the improvement in production efficiency offsets some of the reduction pressure [4]. - **Demand**: Recently, demand has shown a stable trend, with the slaughter rate remaining stable and the decline in the fresh - meat sales rate slowing down. It is expected that demand will improve with the cooling weather, resulting in a pattern of both supply and demand increasing [4]. - **Cost - Profit**: The short - term divergence between feed and live pig prices has reduced farmers' losses, which is not conducive to accelerating capacity reduction. Further losses are needed to drive the reduction of breeding sow inventory [4]. 3. Key Data - **Spot Prices**: The national average price of三元live pigs was 12.52 yuan/kg, the average price of二元sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, the average price of culled sows was 8.97 yuan/kg, the 7kg piglet出栏price was 182.86 yuan/head, and the 15kg piglet price was 260.8 yuan/kg [7]. - **Supply Data** - **Short - term Supply**: In September, the national live pig inventory increased to 436.8 million heads. The 10 - month enterprise planned出栏was 13.3933 million heads, a 5.48% increase from the previous month. The standard - fat price difference was - 0.75 yuan/kg [7][22][26]. - **Medium - term Supply**: In September, the national piglet birth number was 5.676 million, and the survival rate was 92.56% [7][32]. - **Long - term Supply**: In September, the national breeding sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month [7][34]. - **Demand Data**: This week, the national slaughter enterprise's operating rate rebounded to 34.94%, the slaughter volume increased to 147,506 heads, and the fresh - meat sales rate was 86.04%. The pork wholesale volume in Beijing Xinfadi and the pig trading volume in Foshan Zhongnan Agricultural Products Wholesale Market are in seasonal growth. The frozen - product storage rate increased to 18.22% [7][36][38]. - **Cost and Profit Data**: The cost of purchasing piglets and self - breeding has decreased. Currently, the profit of purchasing piglets is about - 80 yuan/head, and the self - breeding profit is about 10 yuan/head [7][45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term supply - demand pattern of live pigs remains relatively loose and is difficult to reverse. It is expected that live pig prices will continue to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage operations on live pig futures [3] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 11,125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan; the main contract position is 57,257 lots, a decrease of 3,135 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 0; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 33,606 lots, a decrease of 517 lots [3] Spot Price - The live pig price in Zhumadian, Henan is 11,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; in Siping, Jilin it is 10,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Yunfu, Guangdong it is 11,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan; the main live pig basis is - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 295 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, an increase of 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0380,000 heads, a decrease of 40,000 heads [3] Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI is - 0.4%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the corn spot price is 2,294.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.81 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 868.6, a decrease of 8.83; the monthly output of feed is 29,272,000 tons, an increase of 999,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,530 yuan/head, a decrease of 3 yuan; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 301.04 yuan/head, a decrease of 64.47 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is - 152.15 yuan/head, a decrease of 78.04 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork is 80,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas is 14.37 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan [3] Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 3,3500,000 heads, an increase of 1840,000 heads; the monthly value of catering revenue in total retail sales of social consumer goods is 449.57 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.4 billion yuan [3] Industry News - In September 2025, the number of newborn piglets in the sample was 5,676,000 heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02%, and the sales volume of piglets was 531,400 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 2.87% [3] Viewpoint Summary - The supply side has near - term pressure due to data cycles and postponed出栏 plans, and active retail farmer sales. The demand side has decreased after the festival, with reduced terminal procurement and slaughter enterprise operations. The short - term supply - demand pattern remains loose, and live pig prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Reverse arbitrage operations on live pig futures are recommended [3]

Report Date - The report is dated September 30, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The supply side has pressure as large - scale farms continue to sell and small - scale farmers are also actively selling large pigs. The demand side has marginal improvement due to cooler weather, price drops, and approaching holidays, but the growth is less than that of the supply side. The supply is sufficient while demand growth is limited, so the pig supply - demand remains in a loose pattern, suppressing pig prices. The pig 2511 contract decreased with reduced positions, continuing the weak trend [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for pigs is 12,355 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the main contract position is 61,105 hands, down 14,348 hands; the number of warehouse receipts is 0 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 27,701 hands, up 1,256 hands; the main basis of live pigs is 245 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of pigs in Henan Zhumadian, Jilin Siping, and Guangdong Yunfu are 12,600 yuan/ton, 12,200 yuan/ton, and 12,700 yuan/ton respectively, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0380,000 heads, down 40,000 heads; CPI month - on - month is - 0.4%, down 0.4 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the corn spot price is 2,368.63 yuan/ton, down 0.98 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 883.25, down 5.13; the monthly feed output is 29,272,000 tons, up 999,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,548 yuan/head, down 77 yuan; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 236.57 yuan/head, down 37.26 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs is - 74.11 yuan/head, down 49.67 yuan; the monthly pork import volume is 80,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas is 14.4 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises is 33,500,000 heads, down 1,840,000 heads; the monthly catering revenue in total social consumer goods retail is 449.57 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2] Industry News - According to Shanghai Ganglian's data, on September 30, 2025, the daily national pig slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises was 268,150 heads, a 7.20% drop from the previous day [2] Key Focus - There is no key news today [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of live pigs is abundant, while the demand growth is limited. The supply - demand pattern remains loose, suppressing the live pig price. The live pig 2511 contract has accelerated its decline, hitting the lowest level since 2022 and maintaining a weak pattern. Attention should be paid to pre - holiday positions [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 12,295 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan; the main contract position is 75,453 lots, down 9,566 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 0 lots, down 298 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 28,957 lots, down 582 lots [2] Spot Market - The live pig price in Henan Zhumadian is 12,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin Siping is 12,200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu is 12,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The main live pig basis is 305 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, an increase of 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0380,000 heads, a decrease of 40,000 heads. The CPI year - on - year is - 0.4%, down 0.4 percentage points. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,369.61 yuan/ton, up 1.57 yuan. The DCE pig feed cost index is 888.38, down 5.93. The monthly output of feed is 29,272,000 tons, an increase of 999,000 tons. The price of binary breeding sows is 1,548 yuan/head, down 77 yuan. The breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 236.57 yuan/head, down 37.26 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is - 74.11 yuan/head, down 49.67 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork is 80,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons. The average price of white - striped chicken in the main producing areas is 14.4 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 33,500,000 heads, an increase of 1,840,000 heads. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 449.57 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2] Industry News - On September 29, 2025, the daily national live pig出栏 volume of key breeding enterprises was 288,940 heads, a decrease of 0.62% from the previous day. The supply side has pressure as large - scale farms continue to sell and small - scale farmers are also actively selling large pigs. The demand side has marginal improvement with cooler temperatures, falling prices and approaching holidays, but the overall growth is less than the supply side [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the stabilization of spot prices and positive news, the decline of live hog futures prices has slowed down, showing an adjustment trend. However, the pressure of live hog supply remains, and the demand growth is limited. Under the weak supply - demand pattern, it is expected that live hog prices will fluctuate weakly at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - The closing price of the main live hog futures contract was 13,320 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the position of the main contract was 75,953 lots, up 234 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 428 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 14,916 lots, up 48 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Price - The live hog prices in Henan Zhumadian, Jilin Siping, and Guangdong Yunfu were 13,400 yuan/ton, 13,000 yuan/ton, and 14,100 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged. The main live hog basis was 80 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The live hog inventory was 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows was 4,0420,000 heads, down 10,000 heads; CPI year - on - year was - 0.4%, unchanged; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,030 yuan/ton; the spot price of corn was 2,365.49 yuan/ton, down 1.96 yuan; the DCE hog feed cost index was 914.43, up 3.38; the monthly output of feed was 28,273,000 tons, down 1,104,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows was 1,625 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchasing piglets was - 126.24 yuan/head, up 22.17 yuan; the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising hogs was 52.65 yuan/head, up 20.41 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork was 90,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas was 14.3 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live hog slaughtering enterprises was 3,1660,000 heads, up 1600,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 450.41 billion yuan, down 2.035 billion yuan. On September 11, 2025, the daily live hog出栏量 of key breeding enterprises nationwide was 275,459 heads, down 0.79% from the previous day [2] 3.5 Industry News - On Thursday, the live hog 2511 contract closed up 0.04%. After continuous price declines, the breeding side has a sentiment of supporting prices, and the spot price has stopped falling and stabilized. However, the inventory of breeding sows corresponding to September is at the peak of the previous increasing cycle, and the number of newborn piglets six months ago has increased, so there is supply pressure. According to Mysteel data, the planned出栏量 in September for the sample increased month - on - month. It is reported by Cailian Press that a live hog symposium may be held in mid - September [2] 3.6 Demand - The temperature in the north has dropped, demand has slightly recovered, and the slaughterhouse's operating rate has continued to rise [2] 3.7 Technical Analysis - The live hog 2511 contract is undergoing a technical adjustment [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply of live pigs faces pressure as the farming sector gradually resumes the rhythm of live - pig sales, September corresponds to the peak of the previous increase cycle of the breeding sow inventory, and the number of newborn piglets six months ago has increased. The planned monthly sales volume in September has increased compared to the previous month according to Mysteel data. On the demand side, the temperature has dropped in the north, leading to a slight recovery in demand and a continuous increase in the slaughterhouse operation rate, but the overall boosting effect is limited. In general, with the increase in live - pig sales from the farming sector and limited demand growth, the live - pig price is under pressure. Technically, due to short - covering, the live - pig 2511 contract rebounded slightly for technical adjustment, but the trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to mainly conduct short - selling transactions on rebounds [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 13,315 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 85 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 75,719 lots, a decrease of 2,241 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 428 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 14,964 lots, an increase of 367 lots [2]. Spot Market - The live - pig prices in Henan Zhumadian, Jilin Siping, and Guangdong Yunfu are 13,400 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan), 13,000 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 14,100 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively; the main live - pig basis is 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 285 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly live - pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, an increase of 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0420,000 heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads [2]. Industry Situation - The year - on - year change of CPI is - 0.4%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,030 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,367.45 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index is 911.05, a decrease of 5.78; the monthly output of feed is 28,273,000 tons, a decrease of 1,104,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,625 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 126.24 yuan/head, an increase of 22.17 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is 52.65 yuan/head, an increase of 20.41 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork is 90,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas is 14.3 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated live - pig slaughtering enterprises is 3,1660,000 heads, an increase of 1600,000 heads; the monthly catering revenue in total social consumer goods retail sales is 450.41 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.35 billion yuan [2]. Industry News - On September 10, 2025, the daily live - pig sales volume of key farming enterprises nationwide was 277,657 heads, a 7.43% increase from the previous day. The live - pig 2511 contract closed up 0.64% on Wednesday [2]. Key Points of Attention - Today, there is no new news. With the increase in live - pig sales from the farming sector and limited demand growth, the live - pig price is under pressure in a weak supply - demand situation. Technically, due to short - covering, the live - pig 2511 contract rebounded slightly for technical adjustment, but the trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to mainly conduct short - selling transactions on rebounds [2].

Group 1: Report Core Views - Northern regional pig prices have been rising continuously. The reduction in the quantity of pigs sold by enterprises has driven up pig prices, with the increase exceeding expectations. The enthusiasm of individual farmers and second - fattening operators to sell pigs has increased, mainly to digest large - weight pig sources, and the price has been stable with limited changes. Slaughterhouse slaughter volume has increased steadily but slowly due to the reduction in enterprise supply [2]. - Most southern markets have seen rising prices. The limited quantity of pigs sold by breeding enterprises has reduced the supply, supporting the market price increase. Attention should be paid to the changes in the enterprise - side slaughter rhythm in recent days [2]. - The off - season supply has ended, and there may be a pattern of both supply and demand increasing in September. However, the weight - loss effect of pig enterprises in the early stage is obvious, which may reduce the supply pressure in September. Moreover, the price difference between standard and fat pigs has always maintained a certain profit for raising large pigs, so there is always room for second - fattening to enter the market [3] Group 2: Data Presented in the Report - The report presents data on various aspects of the pig industry, including the average price of pig slaughter, the seasonal number of pig warehouse receipts, the impact of the number of breeding sows on pig prices 10 months later, the comparison between national and Henan pig prices, the change in pig inventory structure, the average weight of pig slaughter, the PSY production index of breeding sows, the cold - storage rate of frozen pork, the average price of culled sows, pig slaughter volume, the number of culled breeding sows, the seasonal profit of purchased pigs, the seasonal profit of self - raised pigs, the seasonal gross profit of pig slaughter, the开工率 of key pig slaughter enterprises, and the seasonal average price of piglets [4][5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second and third quarters, the supply of live pigs will remain abundant, and the demand boost will be limited. The market supply - demand pattern will show an oversupply situation, with the overall fundamentals being weak. Pig prices will continue to be under pressure. Although the Dragon Boat Festival stocking, secondary fattening, and frozen product warehousing will provide some support to pig prices, the support may be limited. It is expected that future pig prices will maintain a low - level oscillation [7][127]. - It is expected that the main live pig contract in June may maintain a low - level oscillation. It is advisable to focus on the support around 13,000 yuan/ton. Operationally, it is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach, while aggressive investors can consider trying to go long at low prices when the opportunity arises [7][8][129]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - In May 2025, the price of the main live pig futures contract LH2509 fluctuated between 13,380 - 14,060 yuan/ton, showing a downward - oscillating trend and a slight decline for the month. As of the close on Friday, May 30, 2025, the main live pig contract LH2509 fell by 305 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.19%, closing at 13,605 yuan/ton [5][12]. Spot Price - As of May 22, 2025, the national average live pig price was 14.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.28 yuan/kg from the previous month. From a seasonal perspective, the current national average live pig price is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [18]. - As of May 30, 2025, the average price of二元sows was 32.53 yuan/kg, a slight increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous month. As of May 22, 2025, the average price of piglets was 39.01 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.51 yuan/kg from the previous month [22]. - As of May 30, 2025, the prices of 20 - kg外三元piglets in Baoding, Hebei; Linyi, Shandong; and Kaifeng, Henan were 36 yuan/kg, 35.78 yuan/kg, and 35.63 yuan/kg respectively, all showing a slight decline from the previous week [26]. Supply - Demand Balance Situation Global Live Pig Supply - Demand Balance Situation - According to the USDA report, it is estimated that in 2024, the global live pig supply - demand gap was 16,369 thousand heads, a year - on - year decrease of 6,467 thousand heads. The global pork supply - demand gap was 1,434 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 594 thousand tons [33]. China's Live Pig Supply - Demand Balance Situation - According to the USDA report, it is estimated that in 2024, China's live pig supply - demand gap was - 20,000 thousand heads, a year - on - year decrease of 10,629 thousand heads. China's pork supply - demand gap was - 1,202 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 599 thousand tons [39]. Supply - Side Situation - As of March 2025, the national live pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. From a seasonal perspective, the live pig inventory was at a relatively low level in history [45]. - As of April 2025, the national能繁sow inventory was 40.38 million heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads from the previous month, basically the same as the previous month; a year - on - year increase of 520,000 heads, an increase of 1.3%. From a seasonal perspective, the能繁sow inventory was at a relatively low level in history [50]. - As of March 2025, the national pork production was 16.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons, a decrease of 1.2%. From a seasonal perspective, the pork production was at the historical average level [55]. - In April 2025, China's monthly pork imports were 80,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.1%. From a seasonal perspective, the monthly import volume was at a relatively low level in the past five years [58]. Demand - Side Situation - In April 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises in China was 30.77 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 140,000 heads, an increase of 0.46%. From a seasonal perspective, the monthly slaughter volume was at a relatively high level in the past five years [66]. - As of March 31, 2025, the cumulative output of major meats nationwide was 25.4 million tons, of which the cumulative pork output was 16.02 million tons, accounting for 63.07% [70]. Spread Analysis - As of May 29, 2025, the spread between the pork wholesale price and the white - striped chicken wholesale price was 3.48 yuan/kg, and the spread between the pork wholesale price and the mutton wholesale price was - 39.06 yuan/kg. From a seasonal perspective, the spread between the pork wholesale price and the white - striped chicken wholesale price was at a relatively low level in the past five years [78]. - As of May 29, 2025, the spread between the pork wholesale price and the beef wholesale price was - 42.96 yuan/kg, and the spread between the pork wholesale price and the egg wholesale price was 13.09 yuan/kg. From a seasonal perspective, the spread between the pork wholesale price and the beef wholesale price was at a relatively high level in the past five years [85]. Feed Supply - Demand Analysis - As of May 22, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2.45 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.54%. As of May 22, 2025, the average spot price of soybean meal was 3.51 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 2.77 and a year - on - year decrease of 6.4% [89]. - As of April 2025, the feed output was 26.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From a seasonal perspective, the feed output was at a relatively high level in history [95]. Breeding Benefit Analysis - As of May 30, 2025, the breeding profit of purchasing piglets was - 84.37 yuan/head. From a seasonal perspective, the breeding profit of purchasing piglets was at the historical average level [102]. - As of May 30, 2025, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was 35.65 yuan/head. From a seasonal perspective, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was at the historical average level [107]. - As of May 30, 2025, the breeding profit of broilers was - 0.38 yuan/bird. From a seasonal perspective, the breeding profit of broilers was at the historical average level [115]. Pig - Grain Ratio - As of May 30, 2025, the pig - grain ratio in China was 6.16, currently in the normal range [120]. Impact of Recent Tariff Policies on Pig Prices Recent Tariff Policies - Since March 10, 2025, China has imposed an additional 10% tariff on pork, beef, aquatic products, etc. originating from the United States as a counter - measure [121]. - Since March 20, 2025, China has imposed an additional 25% tariff on Canadian pork as a counter - measure [121]. - Since April 10, 2025, China has imposed an additional 34% tariff on all imported goods originating from the United States [121]. - Since April 10, 2025, China has adjusted the additional tariff rate on all imported goods originating from the United States from 34% to 84% [122]. - Since April 12, 2025, China has adjusted the additional tariff rate on all imported goods originating from the United States from 84% to 125% [122]. - Since May 14, 2025, China has adjusted the additional tariff measures on imported goods originating from the United States: the additional tariff rate has been adjusted from 34% to 10%, and the 24% additional tariff rate on the United States will be suspended for 90 days [123]. Impact on Pig Prices - In 2024, China's total imported pork was 1.07 million tons, accounting for only 2.29% of domestic pork production and 1.85% of domestic total demand, having a very limited impact on domestic supply and demand. In 2024, pork imported from the United States accounted for about 6.8% of the total imports, and pork imported from Canada accounted for about 10% of the total imports. Overall, the tariff policies have a small impact on China's live pig market and mainly boost market sentiment [124]. Fundamental Analysis - In May 2025, the national average live pig price decreased slightly from the previous month;二元sows increased slightly; and piglet prices decreased slightly from the previous month [125]. - Supply - side: At the end of April, the national能繁sow inventory was 40.38 million heads, basically the same as the previous month; a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. Calculated from the能繁sow inventory, the supply will continue to increase in the second and third quarters. In April 2025, the pork import volume decreased by 7.1% year - on - year and 11.1% month - on - month, reaching a historical low. In late May 2025, large - scale pig enterprises accelerated the slaughter rhythm, and the market volume of live pigs increased month - on - month. With the gradual increase in temperature, the enthusiasm of individual farmers to slaughter large pigs has increased, intensifying the phased supply pressure [125]. - Demand - side: At the end of April, the slaughter volume increased slightly month - on - month, reaching a historical high. The Dragon Boat Festival stocking showed some improvement, but the demand declined seasonally after the festival. With the gradual increase in temperature, the terminal demand was weak, and the procurement volume of households and the catering industry decreased month - on - month. At the same time, as pig prices fell, secondary fattening in the north also increased. White - striped meat dealers were waiting and seeing about future prices and mainly purchased based on rigid demand. The pork price lacked the driving force for an increase. Frozen products continued to be warehoused, but mainly passively, with less active warehousing [125][126]. - In terms of live pig breeding profit, in May 2025, the overall breeding profit showed a downward - oscillating trend. The breeding profit of purchasing piglets declined significantly from the previous month, turning from profit to loss; the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs decreased significantly from the previous month but remained in a profitable state [126].