现货白银价格历史首次突破每盎司50美元关口，因避险需求激增加剧了伦敦贵金属市场的供应紧张。 周四（10月9日）纽市盘初，现货白银价格涨4.4%报每盎司51.08元，升破了上世纪70年代"亨特兄弟逼空白银操纵案"时 的历史纪录。 年初至今，银价累涨近74%，跑赢了累涨54%的现货黄金。 20世纪70年代，布雷顿森林体系垮台后，美国著名石油家族邦克·亨特和赫伯特·亨特两兄弟不仅在美国期货市场上疯狂买 白银期货，还向中东王室借钱大举购入白银现货。 分析认为，这波行情反映出在美国财政风险、股市过热、美联储独立性受威胁等因素下，投资者对避险资产的强烈追 捧。 | SIVE START THE REQUEST COURSE IT SINCE 3 HISTO J WOS SELVIT ON THE DIGITIES CHRISTON OF STIRE TIGHTSCH | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Silver prices per troy ounce | Early 1970s | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The risk - averse demand is boosted by the US government shutdown, with over 90% expectation of a Fed rate cut in October. Real interest rates are declining, and there is capital inflow led by Western investors due to the "currency depreciation trade". Central banks' continuous gold - buying and geopolitical uncertainties strengthen the long - term logic [3]. - Copper: Shanghai copper futures opened higher due to the rise in overseas copper prices, but the willingness of the industry to accept goods at high prices is questionable. If post - holiday consumption fails to follow up, copper prices may face downward pressure [15]. - Zinc: The supply is in an oversupply state. The domestic zinc ore has a price advantage, and overseas zinc ore supply is abundant. The domestic inventory is accumulating, and the LME inventory is decreasing. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [36]. - Nickel: During the National Day holiday, overseas nickel prices were strong due to policy uncertainties in Indonesia. The supply of upstream nickel ore is expected to tighten, while downstream demand has not significantly improved. Domestic nickel prices are expected to rise slightly after the holiday but with limited upward momentum [51]. - Tin: After the Fed's interest rate decision, the macro impact on tin prices has decreased. In the short - term, the supply is tight, and the weak demand has little impact on prices. Tin prices are likely to fluctuate [66]. - Lithium carbonate: The previous expectation of a shutdown in Jiangxi's lithium ore market has not been verified. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of Xiawo lithium ore and the restocking of downstream sectors [77]. - Silicon: For industrial silicon, prices may rise slightly as enterprises are expected to cut production during the dry season, but the high inventory will limit the price increase. For polysilicon, the market will focus on the expectations of "platform establishment in October" and "centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November", and the risk is relatively high [87]. - Aluminum: For aluminum, the short - term price is affected by the mismatch between the increase in seasonal demand and the decline compared to the previous year. The inventory is expected to accumulate during the National Day, but the policy may bring positive sentiment, and the short - term trend is slightly bullish. For alumina, it is in an oversupply state, but the downward profit space may be limited. For cast aluminum alloy, the price is supported by raw material costs and pre - holiday stocking, but weak demand suppresses the price, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly upward [117][118][119]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - The US government shutdown, high Fed rate - cut expectation, capital inflow, central bank gold - buying, and geopolitical factors are favorable for gold [3]. - Multiple figures show the price trends of SHFE gold and silver, COMEX gold, and the relationships between gold and other factors such as the US dollar index and US Treasury real interest rates [4][8][9][10] Copper - Shanghai copper futures opened higher due to overseas price increases, but high - price acceptance and post - holiday consumption are concerns [15]. - The daily data of copper futures show price changes in different contracts, and copper spot data also show price fluctuations [16][22]. - Data on copper import profit, concentrate processing fees, scrap - to - refined copper price difference, and warehouse receipts are presented [27][31][32] Zinc - The supply side shows an oversupply situation, with differences in domestic and overseas markets. The demand side has issues such as inventory accumulation and low downstream开工 rates [36]. - Zinc futures and spot price data show price changes and spreads [37][42]. - Zinc inventory data show the changes in domestic and overseas inventories [47] Nickel - Overseas nickel prices were strong during the holiday due to Indonesian policy uncertainties. Upstream supply is expected to tighten, and downstream demand is weak [51]. - Data on nickel and stainless - steel futures and spot prices, as well as downstream profit margins, are provided [52][61] Tin - After the Fed's decision, the macro impact on tin prices has decreased. Short - term supply is tight, and prices are likely to fluctuate [66]. - Tin futures and spot price data show price changes, and inventory data also show changes [67][71][73] Lithium carbonate - The expectation of a shutdown in the Jiangxi lithium ore market has failed. Attention should be paid to restocking and production resumption [77]. - Lithium carbonate futures and spot price data show price changes, and inventory data show changes [78][80][84] Silicon - Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly during the dry season, but high inventory limits the increase. Polysilicon market is affected by expectations and has high risks [87]. - Data on industrial silicon and polysilicon spot and futures prices, as well as production, inventory, and cost data, are presented [88][89][110] Aluminum - Aluminum prices are affected by demand, inventory, and policy. Alumina is in an oversupply state, but the downward profit space may be limited. Cast aluminum alloy is affected by cost and demand [117][118][119]. - Aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures and spot price data show price changes and spreads [120][123][130] - Aluminum and alumina inventory data show changes in different regions [140]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international gold prices, which broke the $4000 mark, is primarily driven by Western investors, particularly during a period when Chinese investors were absent due to the National Day holiday [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of spot gold rose nearly $200 from around $3860 to over $4000 during the Chinese holiday, indicating a significant market movement [1]. - The premium for domestic gold in China has shifted from positive to negative, suggesting a decrease in local investor interest compared to Western markets [3]. - The trend of Western investors leading the gold price increase reflects a broader shift in global investment dynamics, with a notable decline in interest from non-US regions [3]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - The concept of "debasement trade" has gained traction among investors, indicating a strategy to hedge against the depreciation of all fiat currencies, not just the US dollar [3][5]. - The stability of the US dollar since August has not deterred gold's rise, suggesting a loss of confidence in fiat currencies overall [5]. - Political events, such as the election of Japan's new prime minister advocating for economic stimulus, have contributed to currency fluctuations, further driving gold prices [6]. Group 3: Historical Context - The current gold price surge can be divided into three phases, starting from the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, followed by the US-China trade war, and culminating in recent signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [9][10][12]. - The rise in gold prices is increasingly seen as a speculative trend rather than solely based on fundamental factors, with its traditional role as a safe-haven asset being emphasized [12][13]. Group 4: Debt and Economic Factors - High levels of debt in developed economies, nearing or exceeding 100% of GDP, are creating a backdrop for increased gold investment as a hedge against economic instability [15]. - The sustainability of debt is under scrutiny, with rising interest rates and inflation posing challenges to fiscal health, which could further drive investors towards gold [15][16]. - The political landscape, particularly in the US and Europe, is complicating fiscal measures needed to manage debt, leading to a potential increase in gold's appeal as a safe asset [16][17].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - During the National Day holiday from October 1 to 8, a record 2.432 billion people are expected to travel across regions, averaging 304 million daily, a year-on-year increase of 6.2% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The total box office for the National Day holiday has surpassed 1.83 billion yuan, with several films exceeding 100 million yuan in revenue [1] - The A-share market welcomed the first trading day of the fourth quarter on October 9, with positive external factors from overseas markets and strong domestic consumption data supporting future performance [1] Group 2: Company Announcements - Nuo Cheng Jian Hua's subsidiary signed a licensing agreement to license Obutinin and two preclinical assets to Zenas [5] - Huanxin Cement terminated plans for the spin-off listing of its overseas subsidiary and plans to repurchase shares worth 32.25 million to 64.5 million yuan [5] - BYD reported a 5.52% year-on-year decline in new energy vehicle sales for September [5] - Great Wall Motors saw a 23.29% year-on-year increase in sales for September, reaching 133,600 vehicles [5] - Beiqi Blue Valley reported a 30.15% year-on-year increase in vehicle sales for September [5] - Hainan Development's subsidiary, Haikong Sanxin, has ceased operations and plans to apply for bankruptcy liquidation [5]

报道认为，2025年这轮黄金涨势与以往不同，因为并非由金融崩盘引发。投资者一方面愈发投机性地押 注金价将持续上涨，另一方面也在寻求规避美国政策失灵的潜在后果，包括预算赤字不断扩大和当前政 府"停摆"，这促使他们转向非美元计价的资产。 国际现货黄金价格8日突破每盎司4000美元关口，盘中一度攀升至每盎司4039.14美元，创历史新高。 美国先锋领航集团首席经济分析师乔·戴维斯说："我们正目睹一场拉锯战，标普500指数反映人工智能 爆发，黄金阵营则认为'我们将面临结构性赤字，美国存在财政压力，我需要管理这种风险'。" 美国《华尔街日报》7日报道，担忧美元等货币前景的投资者正大举买入黄金等替代性资产，推动华尔 街"货币贬值交易"持续升温。黄金今年取代欧元，成为全球第二大储备资产。 美国桥水投资公司创始人瑞·达利欧7日说，即便金价飙升至每盎司4000美元以上的历史新高，投资者仍 应在其投资组合中配置15%的黄金，以分散风险。达利欧认为，当前环境类似上世纪70年代初，当时通 胀高企、美国政府支出庞大且债务沉重，导致人们对美元资产信心崩塌。新华社特稿 ...

来源：重庆晨报 日前，国际金价再创新高，突破每盎司4000美元历史关口，引发市场广泛关注。黄金究竟表现如何？国 际金价为何大幅飙升？面对诸多不确定因素，金价涨势能否持续？ 国际金价走势如何 7日，纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价突破每盎司4000美元，一度创下 每盎司4014.60美元的历史新高。8日，国际现货黄金价格突破每盎司4000美元关口，盘中一度攀升至每 盎司4039.14美元，再创历史新高。 今年以来，国际金价已累计上涨约50%，黄金成为全球表现最亮眼的主要资产之一。分析人士认为，黄 金市场"害怕错过"情绪比获利回吐情绪更为强烈，导致黄金虽然已经超买，但仍有足够买盘推高价格。 金价连创新高，反映出全球避险需求上升和美元信用度下降的双重信号。 第三，全球央行持续购入黄金及黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）的资金流入也成为推动金价创新高的重要 力量。世界黄金协会报告显示，8月各国央行恢复大规模购入黄金，当月净增持15吨黄金储备。强劲需 求推动9月黄金ETF持仓量增加360万盎司，年初至今上涨17%，达到9720万盎司，为2022年9月以来最 高水平。 此外，当前日本经济面临财政和 ...

这是2019年7月31日在美国华盛顿拍摄的美元纸币。新华社记者刘杰摄 报道认为，2025年这轮黄金涨势与以往不同，因为并非由金融崩盘引发。投资者一方面愈发投机性地押注金价将持续上涨，另一方面也在寻求规避美国政策 失灵的潜在后果，包括预算赤字不断扩大和当前政府"停摆"，这促使他们转向非美元计价的资产。 新华社北京10月8日电 国际现货黄金价格8日突破每盎司4000美元关口，盘中一度攀升至每盎司4039.14美元，创历史新高。 美国先锋领航集团首席经济分析师乔·戴维斯说："我们正目睹一场拉锯战，标普500指数反映人工智能爆发，黄金阵营则认为'我们将面临结构性赤字，美国 存在财政压力，我需要管理这种风险'。" 美国《华尔街日报》7日报道，担忧美元等货币前景的投资者正大举买入黄金等替代性资产，推动华尔街"货币贬值交易"持续升温。黄金今年取代欧元，成 为全球第二大储备资产。 美国桥水投资公司创始人瑞·达利欧7日说，即便金价飙升至每盎司4000美元以上的历史新高，投资者仍应在其投资组合中配置15%的黄金，以分散风险。达 利欧认为，当前环境类似上世纪70年代初，当时通胀高企、美国政府支出庞大且债务沉重，导致人们对美元资产信 ...

Core Viewpoint - International spot gold prices surpassed $4,000 per ounce on the 8th, reaching a historic high of $4,039.14 per ounce, driven by investor concerns over the outlook for the US dollar and other currencies [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Investors are increasingly buying gold and other alternative assets, leading to a rise in "currency devaluation trades" on Wall Street [1] - Gold has replaced the euro as the world's second-largest reserve asset this year [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The current surge in gold prices is distinct from previous trends, as it is not triggered by a financial collapse [1] - Investors are speculating on continued increases in gold prices while seeking to hedge against potential consequences of US policy failures, including rising budget deficits and government shutdowns [1] Group 3: Expert Opinions - Joe Davis, Chief Economist at Vanguard, noted a tug-of-war in the market, with the S&P 500 reflecting an AI boom while the gold camp is concerned about structural deficits and fiscal pressures in the US [1] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, suggested that even with gold prices exceeding $4,000, investors should allocate 15% of their portfolios to gold for risk diversification, drawing parallels to the early 1970s when inflation was high and confidence in dollar assets collapsed [1]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻下载mp3音频由扣子空间生成 担忧美元及其他主要货币前景的投资者正大举涌入黄金、比特币与其他另类资产，助推着华尔街所谓 的"货币贬值交易"持续升温。 自美联储主席鲍威尔8月释放该央行将在低失业率与高通胀环境下开启降息的信号以来，交易员持续抢 购黄金，推动金价连创纪录。周二交投最活跃的黄金期货价格史上首次突破每盎司4000美元，紧接着周 三上午，现货黄金亦大举突破4000美元大关，目前正逼近4030美元，日内涨幅超1%。 2025年的这轮黄金涨势不同寻常之处在于，它并非由金融危机所驱动。期货市场年内52%的涨幅，有望 超越新冠疫情首年与2007-2009年衰退期间的同类涨势，仅次于1979年通胀冲击时的表现。 当前投资者正将资金倾注于黄金等贵金属与比特币等加密货币，与此同时，特朗普承诺通过减税刺激经 济，交易员则带着对人工智能的全方位狂热将股市推至历史新高。 与此同时，即使对股市和经济前景乐观的投资者也开始转向贵金属寻求保护。晨星Direct数据显示，交 易员9月向美国实物黄金交易所交易基金投入了创纪录的330亿美元。上周，贝莱德调整了其模型投资组 合——该组合被数千名财务顾问所跟踪—— ...

Core Insights - Unexpected political turmoil in Japan and France is impacting global financial markets, raising concerns about the fiscal stability of major economies and leading to significant sell-offs in Japanese and French government bonds [1] Group 1: Japan's Political Shift - The unexpected victory of Sanna Takashi in the ruling party leadership election has locked in her position as the next Prime Minister, which is interpreted as a signal for increased government spending and potential inflation [2][3] - Following this political shift, the Japanese yen depreciated by 1.8% against the US dollar and reached a historical low against the euro, while the 10-year government bond yield surged to its highest level in over a decade [3] Group 2: France's Political Crisis - The sudden resignation of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu, just a month into his term, has deepened the political crisis in France, marking the fifth Prime Minister to resign in two years due to challenges in passing fiscal measures [3] - This political instability has led to a rise in French government bond yields, with the 10-year yield increasing by 9 basis points to 3.6%, and the spread between French and German bond yields widening to 89 basis points [3] Group 3: Shift to Safe-Haven Assets - The political upheavals in Japan and France have intensified investor concerns regarding the fiscal health of major economies, prompting a shift towards "currency devaluation trades" as investors move away from traditional currencies [4][5] - As a result, alternative assets such as gold, silver, and Bitcoin are experiencing significant demand, with gold prices reaching new highs and Bitcoin trading near its historical peak [6]