Economic Overview - In December, the economic performance for 2025 is expected to show a "high first, low second" trend, with a projected annual growth rate of around 5% [1] - The economy grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively [1] Manufacturing and Investment - The manufacturing PMI for November recorded at 49.2%, indicating slight improvement but still below the expansion threshold [3] - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and the activation of 500 billion yuan in local debt are expected to provide additional investment funds [3] Economic Challenges - The economy is facing downward pressure in the fourth quarter, with growth expected to slow to around 4.5% [3] - Demand remains weak, as evidenced by a CPI decline of 0.1% and a PPI drop of 2.8% in the first three quarters [5] Export and Market Resilience - Exports showed strong resilience, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase from January to October, despite external pressures [6] - The capital market has strengthened, particularly in technology stocks, due to reforms and improved risk appetite [6] Future Economic Projections - For 2026, the economic growth target is also expected to be around 5%, with a focus on proactive macroeconomic policies to stimulate growth [8][10] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" will initiate significant projects aimed at infrastructure and consumption upgrades, which are expected to support economic recovery [9] Policy Recommendations - It is suggested to increase the fiscal deficit rate to 5% for 2026 to enhance public spending and support economic growth [12] - Monetary policy may see further easing, including potential interest rate cuts, to stimulate demand [12][13]

（原标题：怎么"读懂"中国？前国际政要们这样说丨全球财经连线） 值得注意的是，今年参会国际嘉宾来自72个国家和地区，70%来自全球南方国家，70%为首次参会。这 一组数字表明，越来越多国家希望借助这个平台"理解中国、走近中国"。 蒙古国前副总理登德布·特尔比希达格瓦对南方财经记者表示，中国与广大发展中国家推动的南南合 作，正成为全球发展的重要样本。他告诉南方财经记者，"南南合作堪称全球典范，不仅蒙古需要学 习，世界也需要学习。随着这种合作不断深化，我相信我们会迎来一个更加光明的未来。" 与此同时，在今年的讨论中，一个关键词被频频提及 —— "十五五"规划。国际嘉宾普遍关注：中国未 来将如何布局，这样的布局将给世界带来哪些新机遇。 埃塞俄比亚前总统穆拉图·特肖梅在12月1日的开幕大会演讲中指出，下一阶段的"十五五"规划对中国而 言具有承前启后的重要意义，是中国为实现 2035 年基本实现社会主义现代化目标夯实基础的关键五 年。他注意到，中国在未来五年可能会通过推进数字基础设施建设、人工智能发展、深度融合以及传统 产业的数字化转型来培育新质生产力。他认为，这不仅会进一步提升中国的竞争力，也可能为世界提供 一个新的 ...

Economic Overview - The overall economic performance in 2025 is expected to show a "high first, low second" trend, with a projected annual growth rate of around 5% [1][2][4] - The manufacturing PMI for November recorded at 49.2%, indicating a slight improvement but still below the expansion threshold, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [2][5] - The economy is characterized by strong supply but weak demand, with CPI and PPI showing declines, indicating low inflationary pressures [3][4] Investment and Policy Measures - The government has introduced several policies to stabilize investment and mitigate risks, including the acceleration of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools [2][5] - There is an expectation for increased macroeconomic policy efforts in 2026, particularly in infrastructure and consumption sectors, to support economic recovery [6][8] Sector Performance - Exports have shown resilience, with a 5.3% increase in the first ten months of 2025, despite external pressures [4][10] - The real estate market is undergoing significant adjustments, with ongoing challenges in consumer sentiment and investment [4][9] Future Projections - For 2026, economic growth is anticipated to be around 5%, with a potential shift to a "low first, high second" trend as new opportunities arise [7][10] - The fiscal deficit is expected to increase to 4.5%, with a focus on enhancing public spending and supporting consumer demand [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" serves as a guiding document for China's economic and social development from 2026 to 2030, emphasizing the need for high-quality development and cultural advancement in higher education, particularly in fine arts [1][2]. Group 1: Development Strategy - The Central Academy of Fine Arts aims to establish a higher education system in fine arts that reflects Chinese characteristics and meets global standards, aligning with the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the "Education Strong Nation Construction Plan Outline (2024-2035)" [1][2]. - The institution has a historical mission to lead the development of Chinese fine arts and education, focusing on nurturing innovative talents who can contribute to national rejuvenation [2][3]. Group 2: Educational Reform - The academy is reforming its training model to integrate art and technology, promoting interdisciplinary collaboration and breaking down professional barriers to enhance practical skills and critical thinking [3][4]. - Emphasis is placed on cultivating talents with a solid artistic foundation and innovative thinking, particularly in emerging fields such as digital art and intelligent design [3][4]. Group 3: Cultural Integration - The plan highlights the importance of integrating aesthetic education with the new economy, fostering a robust cultural talent pool, and enhancing cultural originality [4][5]. - The Central Academy of Fine Arts is committed to serving national cultural needs and contributing to the development of Chinese fine arts and culture through various initiatives, including the "Mei Run China" action plan [5][6]. Group 4: National and International Collaboration - The academy aims to leverage its strengths in fine arts and design to contribute to national strategies such as rural revitalization and urban development [5][6]. - It seeks to enhance international cultural exchanges and explore pathways for the global dissemination of Chinese aesthetic education [5][6].

Core Insights - The visit of the research team from the China Engineering Science and Technology Innovation Strategic Research Institute to 聚光科技 highlights the national focus on the development of high-end scientific instruments and recognizes the company's achievements in original innovation and technology commercialization [1][2]. Industry Overview - High-end analytical instruments are essential tools for modern scientific innovation, significantly impacting over 80% of industrial R&D efficiency and 70% of core technology breakthroughs, making their development a key indicator of national scientific competitiveness [2]. - Despite rapid growth in the domestic analytical instrument industry, there remains a significant gap compared to leading countries like the US, Germany, and Japan, with nearly 90% of high-end instruments being imported, indicating a pressing need for domestic alternatives [2]. Company Positioning - 聚光科技, as a leading enterprise in the high-end analytical instrument sector, benefits from national strategic planning and support, positioning itself well to tackle key technological challenges and accelerate the process of domestic substitution [2][3]. - The company has established a comprehensive innovation chain and industrialization system that aligns with national strategies for high-end instruments, providing a competitive advantage in fulfilling national strategic tasks and seizing industry development opportunities [2][3]. Technological Advancements - 聚光科技 has developed a leading technology and product system in mass spectrometry, chromatography, and spectroscopy, serving various industries such as environmental monitoring, semiconductor, and life sciences [3]. - The company’s EXPEC 7350s ICP-MS/MS system has made significant inroads into the semiconductor detection field, successfully implementing solutions for trace impurity analysis across critical manufacturing processes [4][5]. Market Potential - The semiconductor industry presents vast market potential, with a strong demand for domestic alternatives in precision detection technologies, particularly in impurity analysis critical to integrated circuit manufacturing [3][4]. - 聚光科技's AMC-1000 micro-pollutant gas monitoring system enhances detection efficiency and flexibility, addressing the needs of semiconductor production environments [5].

《中国经营报》记者了解到，10月底至11月中旬，国家发展改革委开展了面向广大群众的线上征求意见 活动，同时还通过多种方式广泛听取各方建言。 近期，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁多次主持召开座谈会，专门听取民营企业围绕"十五五"时期科技创 新、扩大内需、加快发展服务业等方面的意见和建议。 听取民企建议 不久前，国家发展改革委民营经济发展局有关负责人也向记者表示："我们是实实在在帮民企解决困 难。" 中经记者 索寒雪 北京报道 推介投资项目 与此同时，11月27日至28日，国家发展改革委在湖南省长沙市组织召开促进民营经济发展壮大现场会。 记者了解到，会议集中推介了各地200余个吸引民间资本参与的项目，浙江、河南、湖北、湖南、广 东、四川等地进行了项目推介和路演。 事实上，国家发展改革委此前已多次向民间资本推介投资项目。今年7月，国家发展改革委农村经济司 负责人关锡璠表示，国家发改委将积极鼓励民间资本参与具有经营性收益的供水、发电等项目。 11月28日，郑栅洁主持召开服务业民营企业座谈会，围绕"十五五"规划《纲要》编制工作，听取有关促 进服务业高质量发展的意见建议。 据国家发展改革委信息，京邦达贸易、携程集团、太平鸟集团 ...

Core Viewpoint - The long-term positive trend of the Chinese economy remains unchanged despite short-term challenges, with a projected GDP growth of around 5% in 2025 due to supportive fiscal and monetary policies, strong industrial resilience, and unexpected export growth [1][2] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The 2025 economic growth is expected to be around 5%, with a "front high and back low" trend, indicating strong growth in the first three quarters but potential internal demand issues [2][4] - The report predicts that the economic growth will maintain a medium-high pace over the next five years, but challenges such as declining exports, slowing investments, and real estate risks may arise [1][3] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - The report suggests setting cross-cycle composite goals for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, including a GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5%, a CPI target of 1% to 3%, and a nominal GDP growth target of over 5% [4] - Emphasis is placed on enhancing consumer spending, particularly among low- and middle-income groups, to drive economic growth [5][6] Group 3: Structural Challenges - The current economic constraints have shifted from supply to demand, with insufficient terminal demand identified as a core issue, particularly in service consumption related to basic public services [6][7] - The report highlights the need to address the dual structure of urban and rural economies, which contributes to income disparities and limits consumption growth [6][7] Group 4: Income and Employment - Increasing income is crucial for boosting consumption, with recommendations to enhance employment rates and stabilize business expectations as key strategies [7] - The report advocates for fiscal policies that focus on increasing income for low- and middle-income groups and improving the distribution of resources to enhance public services [7]

Core Insights - The "Understanding China" International Conference is being held for the 12th year, focusing on the theme of "New Layout, New Development, New Choices - Chinese-style Modernization and the New Global Governance Pattern" [1] - The conference aims to discuss the significance of the 14th Five-Year Plan and its implications for global governance, emphasizing China's role in providing new opportunities for developing countries [2][3] Group 1: Conference Themes and Objectives - The conference introduces two new topics: understanding the 14th Five-Year Plan and the four global initiatives, including the Global Governance Initiative [2] - The 14th Five-Year Plan is seen as a departure from the notion that modernization equals Westernization, offering new choices for developing countries [2][6] - The conference serves as a platform for global South countries to learn from China's modernization experience and to promote the concept of a community with a shared future for mankind [3][7] Group 2: International Cooperation and China's Role - Former Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi highlights China's increasing importance in international cooperation, contrasting it with the past U.S.-led initiatives [2] - The conference emphasizes the need for collaboration among nations, particularly in the context of global challenges [2][4] - The participation of representatives from 72 countries, with a significant portion from the global South, indicates the growing influence of the conference [3] Group 3: Economic Strategies and Development Plans - The 14th Five-Year Plan focuses on domestic demand and international cooperation as core components of China's modernization strategy [3][6] - The plan aims to integrate economic growth with global cooperation, emphasizing shared opportunities and mutual development [6][7] - The plan includes innovative strategies for technology and industry, aiming to establish new economic growth points [8][9] Group 4: Regional Development and Innovation - The conference discusses the development experiences of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and Hainan Free Trade Port, highlighting their roles in China's modernization [12][13] - The Greater Bay Area is viewed as a vibrant region with significant potential for economic development and innovation [12] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to enhance international trade and cooperation, marking a new phase of China's high-level opening up [13]

Market Overview - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets have rebounded significantly, continuing the upward trend from the previous week, indicating the start of the year-end market rally [1] - The recent market adjustment, particularly in the technology sector, is viewed as a normal correction rather than the end of the bullish trend, suggesting that the market is still in a growth phase [1] Technology Sector Insights - The current bull market is driven by multiple factors, including the recently approved "14th Five-Year Plan," which emphasizes support for technology innovation in areas such as AI, robotics, semiconductors, and biomedicine [2] - The technology sector is expected to continue leading the market, with significant profit opportunities anticipated in 2026 as the bull market deepens [2][3] Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to adopt a balanced allocation strategy to capture structural opportunities across various sectors, including technology, new energy, and consumer goods [3][4] - The bull market is expected to last longer than a short-term spike, providing a more sustainable investment environment that can enhance household wealth and stimulate economic recovery [4] Future Market Expectations - The technology bull market is projected to persist into 2026, with an anticipated sequence of market leadership starting with "small tech stocks," followed by "mid-tech stocks," and eventually traditional sectors [3] - The current market dynamics suggest a rotation pattern that could become a defining characteristic of this bull market, highlighting the importance of both growth and value investments [4]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the market is expected to experience an early "spring rally" due to easing external pressures and improving internal conditions [2][3] - The focus for December should be on growth sectors, particularly those aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan" and new productive forces [3] Group 1: Market Environment - In November, market momentum was limited due to seasonal effects and external pressures, including tightening global liquidity and concerns over AI industry bubbles [1] - As of December, the pressure on the A-share market is gradually easing, with an 80% probability of a short-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, creating a warmer overall atmosphere [2] - The sentiment around AI stocks has stabilized, reducing the emotional pressure on related A-share sectors [2] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main directions for investment in December: the AI industry chain and sectors related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] - Specific sectors to watch include chip design, semiconductor equipment, and platform companies with full-stack technical capabilities [4] - High-growth areas such as energy storage and innovative pharmaceuticals are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4] Group 3: Top Stock Picks - The report lists ten recommended stocks, including: - BeiGene (688235.SH) in the pharmaceutical sector, with a projected EPS growth from 3.66 in 2026 to 6.73 in 2027 [5] - Haisco (002653.SZ), also in pharmaceuticals, with a projected EPS of 0.70 in 2026 and 0.81 in 2027 [5] - Longking (600388.SH) in environmental services, with a projected EPS of 1.20 in 2026 and 1.37 in 2027 [5] - Maiwei (300751.SZ) in machinery, with a projected EPS of 3.14 in 2026 and 3.93 in 2027 [5] - Yutong Bus (600066.SH) in the automotive sector, with a projected EPS of 2.67 in 2026 and 3.18 in 2027 [5] - Cambricon (688256.SH) in electronics, with a projected EPS of 11.64 in 2026 and 20.88 in 2027 [5] - CATL (300750.SZ) in new energy, with a projected EPS of 18.90 in 2026 and 23.35 in 2027 [5] - Alibaba (9988.HK) in media and internet, with a projected EPS of 4.33 in 2026 and 6.44 in 2027 [5] - Xianle Health (300791.SZ) in food and beverage, with a projected EPS of 1.37 in 2026 and 1.64 in 2027 [5] - Wanhua Chemical (600309.SH) in energy and chemicals, with a projected EPS of 5.13 in 2026 and 5.79 in 2027 [5] Group 4: Financial Data - The report provides financial forecasts for the top stock picks, indicating expected revenue and net profit growth across various sectors [62][63] - For example, BeiGene is projected to achieve a revenue of 370.27 billion in 2025, increasing to 462.80 billion in 2026 [63] - CATL is expected to see significant growth, with projected revenues of 4226.04 billion in 2025 and 5349.47 billion in 2026 [63]