【 导读 】国际金价持续上涨，多家理财子公司密集"上架"黄金理财 中国基金报记者 马嘉昕 在业内人士看来，受市场投资与避险需求的双重推动，国际金价中长期仍处于震荡上行通 道。当前，理财子公司参与黄金业务的公司数量还较少，预计未来会有更多公司参与，并探 索更多黄金配置策略，相关"黄金+"理财产品的发行节奏也将明显加快。 黄金理财发行"热潮"再现 趁着国际金价持续上涨，黄金理财发行"热潮"再现。 9月3日，招银理财发布产品成立公告，招银理财招睿焦点联动黄金5号固收类理财计划于9月 2日成立，挂钩标的为SGE黄金9999。此前，8月中旬，招银理财已发行了一只挂钩黄金的理 财产品。 9月4日，光大理财阳光青臻盈7期（黄金挂钩策略）固定收益类理财产品也进入募集期。 中国理财网信息显示，截至9月11日，名称含有"黄金"的存续理财产品共有48只。其中，银 行理财子公司存续的黄金理财有17只，14只产品于年内发行。 银行理财产品配置黄金的方式主要有两种：一种是"固收+"类理财产品，"+"的资产主要与黄 金有关。如黄金ETF，其投资比例按规定要在10%以内，一般在5%左右。另一种是与黄金标 的挂钩的结构化理财产品，主要投资黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a stable analytical framework and diversified asset allocation to avoid the pitfalls of chasing trends in investment, highlighting that there is no optimal solution in asset allocation [1][4]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategies - The performance of FOF funds has been strong this year, attributed to effective diversified allocation strategies [6]. - The manager, Tang Jun, adjusts the allocation between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks based on market conditions, demonstrating a responsive approach to market changes [1][6]. - Tang Jun actively participates in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and military ETFs, capitalizing on structural opportunities in a complex market environment [1][8]. Group 2: Professional Background and Insights - Tang Jun's career spans quantitative investment, fund evaluation, and macro research, providing a solid foundation for his current asset allocation work [3][4]. - His experience in quantitative research has enhanced his ability to identify various market factors, which is crucial for effective asset allocation [3][4]. - The "Zhongtai Clock" research incorporates policy analysis to better fit the domestic market, addressing the limitations of the previously used Merrill Lynch Clock [4]. Group 3: Dynamic Adjustment and Market Trends - Tang Jun believes that while macro trends provide guidance for asset allocation, the timing of price reflections can be uncertain, necessitating continuous monitoring and dynamic adjustments [6][8]. - The current allocation shows a shift towards A-shares over Hong Kong stocks, indicating a responsive strategy to market conditions [6][8]. Group 4: Avoiding Common Investment Mistakes - The article discusses the common mistake of "chasing trends," where investors buy high and sell low, and suggests establishing a stable analytical framework to counter this behavior [10][11]. - Diversification is recommended to enhance the return stream and provide confidence in maintaining the analytical framework during market fluctuations [11]. - Understanding "expectation differences" is crucial to avoid chasing trends, as short-term asset performance is often driven by the gap between fundamentals and market expectations [12].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced increased volatility since September, with investors showing a strong interest in industry-themed ETFs, particularly in battery and securities sectors, while shifting away from technology sectors like chips and artificial intelligence [1][4][6]. Fund Flows and ETF Performance - From September 1 to September 9, 12 stock ETFs saw net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with industry-themed ETFs leading the way [1][4]. - Battery ETFs, including Guangfa Battery ETF, Huatai-PB Battery 50 ETF, and CMB Battery ETF, attracted significant net inflows of 35.23 billion yuan, 22.97 billion yuan, and 21.17 billion yuan respectively during this period [4][6]. - The total net inflow for battery-themed ETFs exceeded 10 billion yuan, indicating a strong market interest [6][7]. - The performance of battery ETFs has been notable, with returns of 40% for Huatai-PB Battery 50 ETF and CMB Battery ETF from August 9 to September 9 [7]. Investment Trends and Shifts - Investors are increasingly favoring assets with reasonable valuations and high earnings certainty, as evidenced by the shift from technology sectors to high-growth areas like batteries and securities [4][6]. - The trend of significant inflows into non-broad-based ETFs suggests a change in how retail investors are entering the market, with a preference for thematic and sector-focused investments [14][15]. - The shift in investment strategy indicates that selecting industries may become more critical than selecting individual stocks in the current market environment [15]. Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The inflow into securities ETFs, such as Guotai Junan ETF, which saw a net inflow of 50.84 billion yuan, reflects the active trading environment in the market [10][11]. - The overall trend shows that non-broad-based ETFs have experienced a rapid expansion, with net inflows of 227.9 billion yuan from June to August, while broad-based ETFs faced significant outflows [14]. - The changing dynamics of retail investor participation may lead to a more concentrated market effect, emphasizing the importance of industry selection in investment strategies [15].

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月10日 证券行业 2025 年中报综述暨券业战略转型总结 优于大市 自营轮动加快，海外谋扩张机遇 中报业绩概述：基本盘稳固，自营及经纪驱动业绩高增。2025 年上半年，上 市券商实现营收 2,518.66 亿元、同比+11.37%，实现归母净利润 1,040.17 亿元、同比+65.08%。年初以来权益市场稳步向上，交易额、两融余额等规 模持续提升。受市场活跃度持续提升影响，券商业绩普遍呈现高增长。从营 收增速来看，42 家上市券商中超 7 成业绩上涨，30 家实现营业收入与净利 润双增长，其中 22 家实现归母净利超 50%的增长，10 家实现归母净利超 1 倍的增长。整体来看，分部增速：经纪 634.54 亿元、同比+43.98%，投行 155.3 亿元、同比+18.11%，资管 211.95 亿元、同比-2.72%，利息 196.57 亿元、 同比+30.66%，投资 1,123.54 亿元、同比+53.53%。分部占比：经纪 25.2%、 投行 6.2%、资管 8.4%、利息 7.8%、投资 44.6%，其他 7.8%。 资产配置概况：金融资产持续推动扩表。金融投资资 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent significant decline in bond prices, particularly highlighting the 30-year government bond yield rising from around 2.06% to over 2.11% in a single day [1][11] - The article attributes the bond market's volatility to new public fund regulations regarding redemption fees and rumors about tax exemptions, which have created a sensitive environment for bonds in a low-interest-rate context [12][11] - It emphasizes the importance of strategic asset allocation, suggesting that investors should adopt a diversified approach rather than focusing solely on the performance of individual assets like bonds [17][16] Group 2 - The article notes that A-shares have seen a decrease in trading volume, dropping from 3 trillion to 2 trillion, leading to a "pants-snatching" situation where liquidity is concentrated in a few hot sectors [21][22] - It highlights the performance of specific stocks, particularly in the AI and battery sectors, which have shown significant trading activity and volatility [25] - The article mentions the strong performance of Alibaba in the Hong Kong market, with substantial net buying from mainland investors, indicating a positive sentiment towards the stock [26][27]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing complex fluctuations, with various sectors under scrutiny and expectations for recovery, driven by government policies and economic conditions [1][2]. Market Trends - Since September 24, 2022, there has been a significant policy shift in China from "tight fiscal + loose monetary" to "both monetary and fiscal easing," which has positively impacted market sentiment [1]. - The long-term outlook for A-shares is optimistic, with reasonable valuations and expected annualized growth for the CSI 300 index, despite some sectors showing high valuations and market fragmentation [2]. Investment Strategies - The company employs a diversified macro strategy across various asset classes (stocks, commodities, bonds) to manage risks effectively and control drawdowns [3]. - Advanced systematic risk control mechanisms are in place, including pre-warning and stop-loss indicators, ensuring timely risk management during market volatility [3]. Economic Recovery - There are notable signs of recovery in certain sectors post-pandemic, with strong export performance and increasing contributions from emerging industries like semiconductors and new energy vehicles [4]. - Consumer policies are being implemented to boost spending, although the impact may lag behind compared to developed countries [4]. Sector Focus - The semiconductor and biopharmaceutical sectors have seen significant price increases due to factors such as lower financing costs from interest rate cuts and strong innovation [4]. - The company plans to focus on the non-ferrous metals sector, anticipating increased demand and potential price rises if a global easing cycle occurs [5][6]. Interest Rate Impact - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to have already been partially priced into the A-share market, with ongoing attention on future rate adjustments [6]. - The decline in risk-free asset yields presents opportunities for equities, as the current yield on China's ten-year government bonds is around 1.8%, indicating room for adjustment [6]. Investor Guidance - New investors are advised to temper their return expectations, adopt a systematic asset allocation approach, and continuously learn to develop a suitable investment methodology [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the securities industry [4][6] Core Insights - The securities industry has shown robust growth in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 251.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.37%, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 104.02 billion yuan, up 65.08% [1][13] - The increase in performance is driven by a steady rise in the equity market, with trading volumes and margin financing balances continuing to grow [1][13] - The report highlights a significant increase in investment income, which accounted for 44.6% of total revenue, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 53.53% [14][24] Summary by Sections Revenue Structure - In the first half of 2025, the revenue breakdown for listed securities firms showed significant growth across various segments: brokerage income was 63.45 billion yuan (+43.98%), investment banking income was 15.53 billion yuan (+18.11%), asset management income was 21.20 billion yuan (-2.72%), interest income was 19.66 billion yuan (+30.66%), and investment income was 112.35 billion yuan (+53.53%) [1][14][24] Asset Configuration - As of mid-2025, the financial investment assets of listed securities firms reached 6.7494 trillion yuan, an increase of 684.2 billion yuan from the beginning of 2024, accounting for nearly 50% of total assets and about 250% of net assets [2][31] - The report notes a continuous increase in the proportion of OCI equity investments, which reached 571.6 billion yuan, representing 8.5% of financial assets [2][36] Brokerage Business - The average daily trading volume in A-shares was 1.2317 trillion yuan, a 60% increase year-on-year, indicating heightened market activity [3][17] - The commission rate for the securities industry was measured at 0.0182%, reflecting a decrease compared to the previous year, highlighting ongoing competitive pressures in the brokerage sector [3][17] Investment Banking Business - The report indicates a recovery in domestic equity financing, with IPOs continuing to rebound and underwriting activities gradually improving [3][19] - The scale of equity financing in the first half of 2025 reached 20.755 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 120% [3][19] Asset Management Business - The asset management sector remains under pressure, with a slight decline in income, although public fund contributions to parent company performance are gradually increasing [3][24] International Business - Chinese securities firms are accelerating their overseas expansion and enhancing their international competitiveness, with a focus on innovative businesses such as RWA [3][27] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on securities firms with high capital efficiency and strong institutional client bases, such as CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities, as well as firms benefiting from mergers and acquisitions like Guolian Minsheng [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for safe-haven assets and stable returns is increasing as the global liquidity cycle approaches a turning point, highlighting the strategic importance of gold as a traditional risk-hedging tool [1]. Group 1: Gold's Valuation Logic - Gold's valuation is closely tied to liquidity conditions; in a loose monetary environment, its appeal is driven by ample funds and inflation hedging, while in tightening periods, gold may face short-term pressure but often sees renewed investment opportunities as real interest rates decline [3]. - The cyclical nature of gold makes it an essential component in multi-stage asset allocation, providing stability during tightening credit environments and liquidity instability [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Central Bank Factors - Geopolitical uncertainties and the increasing gold reserves held by global central banks provide long-term support for gold prices, reinforcing its role as a hedge against inflation and a stabilizing asset in investment portfolios [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are increasingly viewing gold as a critical direction for portfolio diversification to mitigate systemic risks associated with equities and bonds, especially in complex market conditions [5]. - The changing global liquidity environment has catalyzed a return to gold's defensive logic, offering a safety margin across cycles for investors seeking resilience in their asset allocations [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significance of WanZhou Gold as a trusted player in the Hong Kong gold trading market, emphasizing its commitment to customer service and robust operational strategies [1][3][7]. Group 1: Company Overview - WanZhou Gold is recognized as an AA-class member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, establishing a solid trust foundation among investors through its customer-centric service philosophy [1]. - The company provides a secure and efficient platform for precious metal investments, focusing on market analysis and risk management to support asset allocation for clients [3]. Group 2: Services and Education - WanZhou Gold prioritizes investor education by regularly publishing market analysis reports and offering tailored investment strategy suggestions to address information asymmetry [3][5]. - The company has implemented a 24/7 customer support service to minimize operational blind spots for clients, enhancing their investment experience [3]. Group 3: Compliance and Technology - The company adheres strictly to Hong Kong's financial regulatory requirements, ensuring a transparent and secure trading environment through the Hong Kong Gold Exchange [5]. - Continuous investment in technology has optimized the trading system, improving stability and response times for a seamless trading experience [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - As the global asset allocation for precious metals increases, WanZhou Gold aims to enhance its product and service offerings to help investors achieve asset preservation and appreciation [7]. - The company is positioned to strengthen its industry influence and brand recognition, reflecting the market's acknowledgment of its commitment to quality and trust [7].

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) reported that as of September 5, a total of 12 institutions have applied for 17 ETF-FOF products, with 16 expected to be launched by 2025, indicating a growing interest in these investment vehicles [1] - The recent recovery in market conditions and the ETF market surpassing 5 trillion yuan have contributed to the increased activity from fund companies in the ETF-FOF space [1] - The increasing complexity and diversity of ETF products are raising the bar for fund managers' asset allocation capabilities [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities released a strategy report highlighting three liquidity characteristics in domestic and overseas markets: a clear divergence in ETF fund flows, a decrease in broad-based ETFs while industry/theme-based ETFs are increasing, and a shift from A-shares to Hong Kong stocks [3] - The report suggests that the market may be entering the last round of intensive subscription and redemption for actively managed public funds since 2021 [3] - CITIC Securities noted that the bond ETF market in China, which started relatively late, has seen rapid development, with the market size reaching 564.3 billion yuan by the end of August 2025, where credit bond ETFs account for over 80% of the total [3] - Looking ahead, CITIC Securities believes that the bond ETF market has significant growth potential and recommends focusing on high-quality sci-tech bonds that may be included in indices to capitalize on price appreciation opportunities from incoming incremental funds [3]