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金融期货日报-20250508

Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 02:43

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "Oscillatory operation" [2][3] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "Short - term optimistic" [3] Core Viewpoints Stock Index - The Fed paused rate cuts again, warning of stagflation risks and reiterating increased "uncertainty". Powell ignored Trump, saying the economy is still good and uncertainty is extremely high, and refused to act preemptively due to tariffs. The Bank of Japan unanimously agreed to "stand pat", keeping the interest rate at 0.5%. China's Foreign Ministry responded to the China - US high - level economic and trade talks. China's financial sector introduced a package of policies to stabilize the market and expectations. A major reform plan for the public fund industry was implemented, linking the interests of investors, tying fund managers' compensation to returns, and reducing fees. With multiple positive factors, attention should be paid to the stock index trend. If there is a downward trend to fill the gap, it may fill the gap before rebounding; if the overall situation is stable and favorable, the stock index may oscillate strongly [1] Treasury Bond - Currently, as the policy rate drives down the short - term money market interest rate center, the certainty of the short - to medium - term part of the curve is relatively high. After the curve steepens again, it in turn provides "protection" for the long - term end. The bond market as a whole may still be in a situation with a relatively high probability of success but limited odds. Before the fundamental situation shows a significant improvement, there is no need to be overly cautious [2] Market Review Stock Index - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.51%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.66%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 0.01%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 0.12% [4] Treasury Bond - The 10 - year main contract fell 0.19%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.08%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.62%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.01% [6] Technical Analysis Stock Index - The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market oscillates strongly [5] Treasury Bond - The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract oscillates strongly [7] Strategy Suggestions Stock Index - Oscillatory operation [2] Treasury Bond - Short - term optimistic [3] Data Table | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/05/07 | CSI 300 continuous main contract | 3785.00 | 0.51 | 56105 | 141994 | | 2025/05/07 | SSE 50 continuous main contract | 2646.40 | 0.66 | 29460 | 46351 | | 2025/05/07 | CSI 500 continuous main contract | 5620.20 | 0.01 | 54572 | 100287 | | 2025/05/07 | CSI 1000 continuous main contract | 5955.20 | 0.12 | 158085 | 174521 | | 2025/05/07 | 10 - year treasury bond continuous main contract | 108.85 | - 0.19 | 85388 | 180727 | | 2025/05/07 | 5 - year treasury bond continuous main contract | 106.00 | - 0.08 | 62281 | 151057 | | 2025/05/07 | 30 - year treasury bond continuous main contract | 120.14 | - 0.62 | 115667 | 93433 | | 2025/05/07 | 2 - year treasury bond continuous main contract | 102.31 | - 0.01 | 40388 | 89974 | [9]