1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Based on fundamental analysis, the report classifies various futures products into trend空头 (downward trend), 震荡偏空 (slightly bearish with oscillations), 震荡 (sideways movement), 震荡偏多 (slightly bullish with oscillations), and 趋势多头 (upward trend). For example, liquefied petroleum gas is in the 震荡偏空 category, while CSI 500 stock index futures are in the 震荡偏多 category [4]. - Based on quantitative indicators, products are categorized as 偏空 (bearish), 震荡 (sideways), and 偏多 (bullish). For instance, sugar is classified as 偏空, while lead futures are 偏多 [6]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend judgments for multiple futures products based on fundamental and quantitative analyses, and offers trading strategies and market outlooks for each product. It also analyzes macro - economic information and its impact on the futures market [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The strategy is to follow the short - term strong trend. A - shares showed a strong performance, and with the release of policies and market expectations, the index rebounded after a pull - back, suggesting a continuation of the trend - following approach [12]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Consider a steepening strategy in the short - term and short long - term bonds. The central bank's open - market operations and the performance of the stock and commodity markets affect the bond market, and there is a possibility of the bond market weakening under the pressure of stocks and commodities [13]. 3.2 Black (Steel and Minerals) - **Steel and Ore**: The black market is expected to be in a high - level oscillation. Demand may seasonally weaken, but the decline is limited in the medium - term. Supply is expected to remain strong, and steel and ore prices are likely to oscillate between the cost of valley - electricity and flat - electricity [14][15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may enter a high - level oscillation phase. Supply is expected to be tight in the short - term, but there are also factors that may put pressure on prices, such as the possible decline in steel production and sufficient imported Mongolian coal supply [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: After the sharp decline of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the futures premium bubble has almost disappeared. It is recommended to consider strategies such as going long on the spread between ferrosilicon and silicomanganese or conducting reverse arbitrage between near - and far - month contracts of silicomanganese. In the long - term, a bearish approach is appropriate [17]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, maintain a short - selling strategy when prices are high and exit flexibly if the positive feedback atmosphere returns. For glass, it is advisable to wait and see. The supply of soda ash has returned to a high level, and there is potential delivery pressure. The glass market needs to digest speculative inventory [18]. 3.3 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the short - term. For alumina, there is room for the basis to repair, and it is advisable to go long on the basis in the short - term. In the long - term, due to supply - demand imbalances, it is recommended to short alumina at high prices [21]. - **Zinc**: Social zinc inventories are increasing, and with the recovery of smelter production and weak downstream demand, zinc prices are expected to oscillate downward [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The current tight - balance fundamentals support prices, and the short - term decline is limited. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [23]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contradiction lies in the resumption of production of leading manufacturers. The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and the price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to downstream policies and supply - side policies [24]. - **Polysilicon**: The policy expectation has cooled, and the price may return to the fundamentals and warehouse - receipt game. The supply - demand situation is relatively loose, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether policies can stimulate terminal demand [25][26]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are under pressure to oscillate and rebound. It is recommended to short at high prices. Domestic downstream demand is weak, but supply concerns support prices. Attention should be paid to macro - economic and supply - demand factors [26][27]. - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar prices are under downward pressure due to the expected increase in processed sugar supply and the decline in import costs. However, the expected demand during the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may limit the decline [28][29]. - **Eggs**: The 09 contract price of eggs has reached a historical low. The supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival is large, and the upside is limited. It is advisable to wait and see, and be cautious when considering bottom - fishing [32]. - **Apples**: It is recommended to conduct a light - position positive arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the listing price and consumption of new - season apples and the price of old - season apples [34]. - **Corn**: Corn prices are expected to oscillate widely. The supply and demand sides are under pressure, but there is also support from policies. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy implementation [35]. - **Red Dates**: It is advisable to wait and see. The production is still in dispute, and the market is oscillating [36]. - **Pigs**: It is recommended to short near - month contracts and consider a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage strategy. The supply is strong and the demand is weak in the short - term [36][37]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is worried about oil demand due to the downward revision of US economic data. OPEC+ is increasing supply, and the long - term trend is towards a supply - surplus situation. Attention should be paid to US secondary sanctions on Russia and the summer demand [39]. - **Fuel Oil**: There is no clear main - line logic for oil prices. The price is expected to oscillate between 70 and 65 dollars, and low - sulfur fuel oil prices will follow oil prices [39]. - **Plastic**: The market sentiment is unstable, and polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The supply is strong and the demand is weak [41]. - **Rubber**: In the short - term, rubber prices may oscillate slightly stronger. It is advisable to short - long after a pull - back and be cautious when chasing high prices [42]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices follow the overall commodity trend and are expected to oscillate weakly. The supply and demand are weak, and the port inventory is increasing [43]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply in Shandong is at a high level, and the sales pressure of chlor - alkali enterprises is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [44]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices follow oil prices. The oil price has no clear main - line logic, and the asphalt market is in a seasonal transition period with slow inventory reduction [45][46]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The market is still weak. It is recommended to hold short positions moderately, but not to increase short positions aggressively. The cost is under pressure due to the decline in oil prices, and the supply and demand are not favorable [47]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The supply of LPG is abundant, and the demand is expected to decline in the long - term. The price is likely to fall [48]. - **Pulp**: The main - contract sentiment is cooling, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to port inventory reduction and spot trading [49]. - **Logs**: The spot price has increased, and the basis is being chased. There is some hedging space, and it is advisable to observe and consider hedging at high prices [50]. - **Urea**: The Indian urea tender price is higher than the domestic export price, which has a certain positive impact on the market. It is recommended to maintain a wide - range oscillation strategy [50].

这次国家明确的政策内容中有几个关键点，来听专家分析。 国务院办公厅昨天（5日）印发《关于逐步推行免费学前教育的意见》。 2025年秋季开始减免幼儿园学前一年保育教育费 从2025年秋季学期开始，免除公办幼儿园学前一年在园儿童保育教育费。 根据政策，从2025年秋季学期起，免除公办幼儿园学前一年在园儿童保育教育费。对在教育部门批准设 立的民办幼儿园就读的适龄儿童，参照当地同类型公办幼儿园免除水平，相应减免保育教育费。 在免除标准方面，按照县级以上地方人民政府及其教育、价格主管部门批准的公办幼儿园保育教育费收 费标准（不含伙食费、住宿费、杂费等）执行。民办幼儿园保育教育费高于免除水平的部分，幼儿园可 以按规定继续向在园儿童家庭收取。对因免保育教育费导致幼儿园收入减少的部分，由财政部门综合考 虑免保育教育费在园儿童人数、所在地保育教育费生均实际收费水平等情况补助幼儿园。 此外，将巩固落实家庭经济困难儿童等群体资助政策，健全学前教育经费投入机制。 新政策直接降低家庭育儿成本 其实，早在今年的政府工作报告中就提出"逐步推行免费学前教育"。这次国家明确的政策内容中有几个 关键点，来听专家分析。 ·政策出台，谁是直接受益者 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the positive momentum in the Chinese economy and capital markets, driven by consumption and investment as core growth drivers [6][10][11] - The communication and electronics sectors are leading the A-share market, with a focus on technology growth and cyclical manufacturing as key investment themes [8][11][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy changes, liquidity conditions, and external market influences for future market performance [10][11][18] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,617.60, up by 0.96%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11,106.96, up by 0.59% [4] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 14.60 times and 40.70 times, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [10][11] Industry Analysis - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a rebound, with a 9.73% increase in the industry index in July, outperforming the CSI 300 index [23][24] - The report discusses the comprehensive governance of low-price disorder in the photovoltaic sector, with policies aimed at improving product quality and phasing out outdated capacity [24][26] - The new energy vehicle (NEV) industry is highlighted for its rapid growth, with global sales expected to exceed 20 million units by 2025, and China maintaining a leading position in the market [27][28][29] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as communication equipment, consumer electronics, financial services, and automotive parts for short-term investment opportunities [10][11][18] - In the food and beverage sector, attention is drawn to white wine, soft drinks, and health products as potential investment areas due to their recent performance improvements [19][20][21] - The report recommends monitoring the photovoltaic industry for potential gains as governance measures take effect and supply-demand dynamics improve [26]

2025.08. 06 【今日推荐】 特朗普称万斯最有可能成为其接班人 美国总统特朗普周二表示，现任副总统万斯"最有可能"成为其"让美国再次伟大"（MAGA）运动的继 承人。国务卿鲁比奥稍早表示，万斯如果决定参选，会是一位很棒的提名人选，特朗普对此回应 道："我认为他（万斯）最有可能。"他补充称："我们还有非常出色的人才，有些人今天就坐在这个 台上。所以现在谈这个还太早，但可以肯定的是，万斯目前干得非常出色，他现在可能是最被看好的 人选。"稍早当天，特朗普在接受美媒采访时曾表示，他"可能不会"寻求第三个总统任期。 国家免一年幼儿园保教费，惠及千万儿童，央地财政共担 8月5日，国务院办公厅发布《关于逐步推行免费学前教育的意见》，明确从2025年秋季学期起，免 除公办幼儿园学前一年在园儿童保育教育费。对在教育部门批准设立的民办幼儿园就读的适龄儿童， 参照当地同类型公办幼儿园免除水平，相应减免保育教育费。根据教育部最新数据，2024年全国共 有幼儿园25.33万所，在园幼儿3583.99万人。据悉，自2025年秋季起，幼儿园大班免一年保育教育 费，由央地财政共同负担，降低家庭育儿成本。 巴厘岛突发！2名中国游客不幸 ...

日前，国务院办公厅印发《关于逐步推行免费学前教育的意见》(以下简称《意见》)，推进学前教育普 及普惠安全优质发展。 《意见》强调，坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入贯彻党的二十大和二十届二 中、三中全会精神，全面贯彻党的教育方针，聚焦人民群众所急所需所盼，按照强化普及普惠、稳妥有 序推进、加大政府投入、经费合理分担的原则，逐步免除学前教育保育教育费，有效降低教育成本，提 高基本公共教育服务水平，办好人民满意的教育。 販売安全 > 助 《意见》明确，从2025年秋季学期起，免除公办幼儿园学前一年在园儿童保育教育费。免保育教育费标 准按照县级以上地方人民政府及其教育、价格主管部门批准的公办幼儿园保育教育费收费标准(不含伙 食费、住宿费、杂费等)执行。对在教育部门批准设立的民办幼儿园就读的适龄儿童，参照当地同类型 公办幼儿园免除水平，相应减免保育教育费。民办幼儿园保育教育费高出免除水平的部分，幼儿园可以 按规定继续向在园儿童家庭收取。对因免保育教育费导致幼儿园收入减少的部分，由财政部门综合考虑 免保育教育费在园儿童人数、所在地保育教育费生均实际收费水平等情况补助幼儿园。 《意见》提出，在国家统一实施 ...

央广网北京8月6日消息（记者王泽华 孙永）据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》报 道，国务院办公厅印发《关于逐步推行免费学前教育的意见》（以下简称《意见》），昨天（5日）对 外公布。《意见》明确，从今年秋季学期起，免除公办幼儿园学前一年在园儿童保育教育费。 《意见》指出，对因免保育教育费导致幼儿园收入减少的部分，由财政部门综合考虑免保育教育费 在园儿童人数、所在地保育教育费生均实际收费水平等情况补助幼儿园。 根据《意见》，民办幼儿园参照当地同类型公办幼儿园免除水平，相应减免保育教育费；高出免除 水平的部分，民办幼儿园可以按规定继续向在园儿童家庭收取。 中国教育科学研究院基础教育研究所副研究员高丙成："学前一年"就是指大班的在园适龄儿童，免 费的标准是按当地公办幼儿园保育教育费收费标准，进行免除。大家知道，幼儿园的收费，主要包括保 育教育费、伙食费、住宿费等，此次《意见》提出的免费，免除的是保育教育费。 中国财政科学研究院教科文研究中心主任韩凤芹：我们认为免费学前教育政策就是"投资于人"的一 个重要体现。它不仅是教育公平的深化，也是人口高质量发展的必然要求。 ...

但在一片叫好声中，更值得追问的是：免费之后呢？ 01 教育公平的最后一公里，并不容易走 学前教育一直是基础教育中投入最薄弱、分布最不均衡的部分。尽管「普及率」不断提高，真正困扰家 庭的，仍然是「公办园太少」「入园太难」「费用太高」。而这次政策的直接指向，正是家庭教育成本 的核心部分——保育教育费。 根据文件， 从 2025 年秋季学期开始，所有公办幼儿园的学前一年在园儿童，将直接免除保育教育费； 教育部门批准设立的民办幼儿园就读的适龄儿童，参照当地同类型公办幼儿园免除水平，相应减免保育 教育费。 这一举措毫无疑问直击痛点， 让「入园贵」的问题迎来制度性缓解。 更进一步，政策还明确了减免费用的标准依据，即按照县级以上地方政府批准的公办园收费标准执行， 不包括伙食费、住宿费、杂费等其他项目。 然而，真正难走的，是公平的「最后一公里」。 公办园总量依旧偏少，区域发展极不均衡，家长能否 真正「上得到」，远比「免费了没」更重要。 政策的确定，固然是教育公平的一次推进，但如果供给 侧跟不上，问题反而可能放大。 8 月 5 日，国务院办公厅正式对外印发《关于逐步推行免费学前教育的意见》。自 2025 年秋季学期 起，全国范 ...

免费学前教育，既牵动千家万户的关切，又承载国家未来发展的考量。 新华社北京8月5日电 题：关切事！免费学前教育今年秋季学期起逐步推进 新华社记者申铖、王鹏 国务院办公厅印发《关于逐步推行免费学前教育的意见》，5日对外公布。意见明确，从2025年秋季学 期起，免除公办幼儿园学前一年在园儿童保育教育费。 今年的政府工作报告提出"逐步推行免费学前教育"，受到广泛关注。此前召开的国务院常务会议部署了 逐步推行免费学前教育有关举措。此次国办印发的意见，进一步明确了逐步推行免费学前教育的相关具 体安排。 "逐步推行免费学前教育，既是积极回应民生关切、降低家庭保育教育成本的重要举措，也是加快建设 高质量教育体系的重要内容。"北京师范大学学前教育研究所所长、博士生导师洪秀敏说，免费学前教 育相关工作需要稳步推进，要根据学龄人口变化、经济社会发展水平等情况，坚持尽力而为、量力而 行，分步有序推进。 根据此次印发的意见，免保育教育费标准按照县级以上地方人民政府及其教育、价格主管部门批准的公 办幼儿园保育教育费收费标准（不含伙食费、住宿费、杂费等）执行。 民办幼儿园也可享受"同等"减免水平。根据意见，对在教育部门批准设立的民办幼儿 ...

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 08 月 06 日 星期三 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周二 A 股三大指数集体收涨，截止收盘，沪指收涨 0.96%，深成指收 涨 0.59%，创业板指收涨 0.39%。沪深两市成交额 15958.46 亿元。申 万行业方面，综合、银行、钢铁领涨，医药生物、计算机、建筑材料 领跌；概念板块方面，兵装重组、PEEK 材料、脑机接口概念涨幅居 前，华为盘古、仿制药一致性评价、Sora 概念跌幅居前。港股方面， 恒生指数收涨 0.68%，恒生科技指数收涨 0.73%；海外方面，美国三 大指数集体收跌，道指收跌 0.14%，标普 500 收跌 0.49%，纳指收跌 0.65%。 【重要新闻】 【国务院办公厅印发《关于逐步推行免费学前教育的意见》】《意见》 明确，从 2025 年秋季学期起，免除公办幼儿园学前一年在园儿童保 育教育费，不含伙食费、住宿费、杂费等。同时，民办幼儿园也可享 受与公办幼儿园"同等"减免水平，高出免除水平的部分可继续向在园 儿童家庭收取。国新办周四举 ...

《意见》明确，从2025年秋季学期起，免除公办幼儿园学前一年在园儿童保育教育费。免保育教育费标 准按照县级以上地方人民政府及其教育、价格主管部门批准的公办幼儿园保育教育费收费标准(不含伙 食费、住宿费、杂费等)执行。对在教育部门批准设立的民办幼儿园就读的适龄儿童，参照当地同类型 公办幼儿园免除水平，相应减免保育教育费。民办幼儿园保育教育费高出免除水平的部分，幼儿园可以 按规定继续向在园儿童家庭收取。对因免保育教育费导致幼儿园收入减少的部分，由财政部门综合考虑 免保育教育费在园儿童人数、所在地保育教育费生均实际收费水平等情况补助幼儿园。 日前，国务院办公厅印发《关于逐步推行免费学前教育的意见》(以下简称《意见》)，推进学前教育普 及普惠安全优质发展。 《意见》强调，坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入贯彻党的二十大和二十届二 中、三中全会精神，全面贯彻党的教育方针，聚焦人民群众所急所需所盼，按照强化普及普惠、稳妥有 序推进、加大政府投入、经费合理分担的原则，逐步免除学前教育保育教育费，有效降低教育成本，提 高基本公共教育服务水平，办好人民满意的教育。 《意见》提出，在国家统一实施的免保育教育费政策 ...