相关链接 金十数据7月31日讯，7月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，制造业 景气水平有所回落。从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为50.3%，比上月下降0.9个百分点，高于临界点；中 型企业PMI为49.5%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，低于临界点；小型企业PMI为46.4%，比上月下降0.9个 百分点，低于临界点。从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数和供应商配送时 间指数均高于临界点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临界点。生产指数为50.5%， 比上月下降0.5个百分点，仍高于临界点，表明制造业生产延续扩张。新订单指数为49.4%，比上月下降 0.8个百分点，表明制造业市场需求有所放缓。 国家统计局：7月中国制造业采购经理指数为49.3% 制造业景气水平有所回落 ...

国家统计局：7月份，受制造业进入传统生产淡季，部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响，PMI降 至49.3%，制造业景气水平较上月回落。生产指数保持扩张。生产指数和新订单指数分别为50.5%和 49.4%，比上月下降0.5和0.8个百分点，制造业生产活动继续保持扩张，市场需求有所放缓。 ...

人民财讯7月31日电，国家统计局发布的数据显示，7月份，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.3%，比上 月下降0.4个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 ...

每经AI快讯，7月31日，国家统计局数据显示，7月份，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.3%，比上月下 降0.4个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 ...

国家统计局：7月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，制造业景气水 平有所回落。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, also neutral. The inventory has increased, with the copper inventory on July 18 rising by 25 to 122,175 tons and the SHFE copper inventory increasing by 3,094 tons to 84,556 tons last week, which is neutral. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average trending downward, suggesting a bearish signal. The main positions are net long and the long positions are increasing, which is bullish. Considering factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's rate - cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Neutral, with smelting enterprise production cuts, relaxed scrap copper policy, and stable manufacturing PMI at 49.5% in June [3] - Basis: Neutral, with a spot price of 78,635 and a basis of 225, indicating a premium of the spot over the futures [3] - Inventory: Neutral, with an increase in copper inventory on July 18 and an increase in SHFE copper inventory last week [3] - Disk: Bearish, as the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is trending downward [3] - Main positions: Bullish, with net long main positions and an increase in long positions [3] - Expectation: Copper prices will fluctuate and adjust due to factors like the slowdown of the Fed's rate - cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak off - season consumption [3] Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not elaborated [4] Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance [21] - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows details of production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024 [23] Other Information - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [15] - The processing fee has declined [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - The copper market has a neutral fundamental situation, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. The basis shows a slight premium for spot over futures, and inventory data presents a mixed picture. The price is affected by factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption in the off - season, leading to a decline and adjustment in copper prices [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. The June manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, showing stable manufacturing sentiment; neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 78040, with a basis of 60, indicating a premium for spot over futures; neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On July 16, copper inventory increased by 10525 tons to 121000 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3127 tons to 81462 tons compared to last week; neutral [2]. - **Market Trend**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward; bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing; bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: With the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption in the off - season, copper prices will decline and adjust [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Leverage Factors**: Domestic policy easing and trade - war escalation are mentioned, but specific impacts are not detailed [3]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: Information on LME and SHFE inventories is presented, including inventory quantity and changes [6][12]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market will be in a tight - balance state. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024 [20][22].

Group 1 - The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June is reported at 49.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight recovery trend but still below the expansion threshold of 50% [1] - The manufacturing sector in Asia is operating in the expansion zone with a PMI of 50.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from last month, contributing positively to global economic recovery [1] - The Americas, Africa, and Europe are all in the contraction zone, with PMIs of 48.6%, 49.7%, and 48.8% respectively, although all regions show varying degrees of improvement compared to the previous month [1] Group 2 - The analysis suggests that the global economic recovery continues to face downward pressure, with uncertainty being a common theme among countries discussing recovery paths [2] - Strengthening multilateral cooperation and solidifying the foundation of global market demand is identified as a key direction for ensuring stable global economic recovery [2]

Group 1 - Manufacturing PMI has risen for two consecutive months, indicating a continued recovery in China's macro economy [5] - In June, the manufacturing PMI increased to 49.7%, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, reflecting an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [6] - The new orders index returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, indicating a recovery in market demand [6] Group 2 - The price index ended a three-month decline, with the main raw material purchase price index at 48.4% and the factory price index at 46.2%, both showing improvement [7] - Large enterprises' PMI rose to 51.2%, significantly supporting the overall manufacturing sector, while small enterprises' PMI fell to 47.3% [7] - The manufacturing sector is expected to maintain steady growth in the second half of the year, driven by policy support and stable market demand [7] Group 3 - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in the service sector [10] - The service sector's business activity index was 50.1%, showing stability, while the business activity expectation index was at 56.0%, reflecting optimism for future growth [10] - The construction business activity index rose to 52.8%, with civil engineering construction remaining robust [11] Group 4 - Infrastructure projects are progressing rapidly, supported by special bonds for land acquisition and government investment funds [11] - The expansion of special bond allocations is expected to stimulate more infrastructure demand, contributing to stable economic growth [11]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49.7%, showing a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery in the manufacturing sector [1] - In June, the new orders index rose to 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points, marking a return to the expansion zone after two months below 50% [2] - The production index for manufacturing increased to 51%, up 0.3 percentage points, reflecting stable expansion in production activities [2] - The purchasing volume index for raw materials also returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, increasing by 2.6 percentage points [2] - The equipment manufacturing PMI is at 51.4%, high-tech manufacturing PMI at 50.9%, and consumer goods PMI at 50.4%, all indicating expansion [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index for June is reported at 50.5%, a 0.2 percentage point increase, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [5] - The construction sector shows significant growth with a business activity index of 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, and civil engineering at 56.7%, indicating strong activity [6] - The service sector's business activity index is at 50.1%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage point, but the business activity expectation index remains high at 56% [5][6] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic climate is showing resilience, with manufacturing PMI recovering for two consecutive months, suggesting a stable economic foundation [4] - The second quarter saw fluctuations due to external factors, but the manufacturing sector is expected to maintain steady growth in the second half of the year [4] - The non-manufacturing business activity index has consistently remained above 50%, indicating stable expansion in the sector [6]