资产配置与金融工程 证券研究报告 美元弱势，降息在即，全球风险资产上行 ——大类资产周报（20250908-20250914） 分析师：朱定豪 SAC执业资格证书编码: S0020521120002 邮箱：zhudinghao@gyzq.com.cn 2025年9月15日 分析师：汤静文 SAC执业资格证书编码: S0020524060001 邮箱：tangjingwen@gyzq.com.cn 一、本周大类资产交易主线 本周宏观增长因子继续向上，通胀高频因子反弹态势减弱，国内CPI同比转负（-0.4%），PPI同比降幅收窄至-2.9%，反映内需不足 矛盾仍突出，美联储降息节奏推动全球流动性预期向上。亚洲权益市场（韩综指+5.94%、恒生科技+5.31%）受益于外资回流及AI 产业主线，美股三大指数创下历史新高，美联储降息预期下美元走弱（-0.13%），黄金、白银（沪银+2.79%创历史新高）避险逻辑 强化。A股成长风格占优（科创50涨5.48%），中小盘（中证1000涨2.45%）跑赢大盘蓝筹，估值压力抬升，但盈利预期未见明显同 步改善，资金面支撑仍然是目前主要驱动力。债市资金分流， 10年期国债期货跌0. ...

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August is 49.4%, showing a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1][2] - The production index stands at 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points, marking the fourth consecutive month above the critical point, suggesting accelerated manufacturing production [1] - The new orders index is at 49.5%, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase, with significant performance in sectors like pharmaceuticals and computer communication electronics, while textiles and furniture industries remain below the critical point [1] Group 2 - The price index has been rising, with the main raw material purchase price index at 53.3% and the factory price index at 49.1%, both showing increases of 1.8 and 0.8 percentage points respectively, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [1] - High-tech manufacturing PMI is at 51.9% and equipment manufacturing PMI is at 50.5%, both showing increases, which indicates sustained support and leading roles in the manufacturing sector [2] - The production and business activity expectation index is at 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points, suggesting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding future market conditions [2]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In August, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, indicating an improvement in economic conditions compared to the previous month [2] - The production index reached 50.8%, up by 0.3 percentage points, marking four consecutive months above the critical point, signaling accelerated manufacturing production [2] - The new orders index increased to 49.5%, reflecting a slight rise in demand [2] - Large enterprises showed a PMI of 50.8%, up by 0.5 percentage points, indicating sustained expansion, while medium and small enterprises experienced declines [3] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs were 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively, showing continued strength in these sectors [3] - The production and business activity expectation index rose to 53.7%, suggesting increased confidence among manufacturers regarding future market conditions [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index reached 50.3%, up by 0.2 percentage points, indicating ongoing expansion in the sector [4] - The service industry business activity index rose to 50.5%, the highest point of the year, with significant growth in capital market services and transportation sectors [4] - The construction industry business activity index fell to 49.1%, impacted by adverse weather conditions, indicating a slowdown in construction activities [4] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector increased to 57.0%, reflecting optimism about future market developments [4] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Insights - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.5%, up by 0.3 percentage points, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [5] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were 50.8% and 50.3%, respectively, contributing to the comprehensive PMI's positive trend [5]

Group 1 - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector in July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The production index stands at 50.5%, indicating a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points [1] - The main raw materials purchasing price index is at 51.5%, which reflects an increase of 3.1 percentage points [1] - The production and business activity expectation index is recorded at 52.6%, showing an increase of 0.6 percentage points [1]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1] - The production index remains in expansion at 50.5%, although it has decreased by 0.5 percentage points from last month, indicating continued manufacturing activity [1] - The prices of major raw materials have increased, with the purchasing price index at 51.5% and the factory price index at 48.3%, rising by 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points respectively [1] Group 2 - Large enterprises maintain expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points from last month, while their production and new orders indices are at 52.1% and 50.7%, respectively, indicating a stable operational status [1] - Medium-sized enterprises show improvement with a PMI of 49.5%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from last month, reflecting a better economic outlook [1] - Small enterprises have a PMI of 46.4%, which is a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating challenges in this segment [1] Group 3 - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs are at 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, both above the critical point, suggesting sustained growth in these sectors [2] - The consumer goods industry PMI is at 49.5%, down 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a decline in this sector [2] - The production expectation index for July is at 52.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, showing improved confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [2]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3% in July, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1][2] - The production index remained in expansion at 50.5%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [2] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [3] Group 2: Price Indices - The price index for major raw materials increased, with the purchasing price index at 51.5% and the factory price index at 48.3%, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [2] - The purchasing price index for major raw materials rose above the critical point for the first time since March, suggesting a recovery in market conditions [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion [1][4] - The service sector's business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with certain industries like transportation and entertainment showing strong growth due to seasonal effects [4] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 50.6%, influenced by adverse weather conditions, while the business activity expectation index for the service sector rose to 56.6%, indicating optimism among service enterprises [4] Group 4: Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index was 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [5][6] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to the composite PMI, standing at 50.5% and 50.1% respectively [6]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - In July, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions [2][3] - The production index remained in expansion at 50.5%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [2] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [3] Group 2: Price Index and Market Conditions - The price index showed an upward trend, with the main raw materials purchasing price index at 51.5%, marking the first rise above the critical point since March [2] - The production and new orders indices for high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing remained above the critical point, indicating sustained growth in these sectors [3] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion [4] - The service sector showed stability, with a business activity index of 50.0%, while sectors related to travel and consumption experienced high activity levels [4] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 50.6% due to adverse weather conditions affecting construction activities [4] Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index was at 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities across sectors [6]

Manufacturing Sector - In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions [2][3] - The production index remained in expansion at 50.5%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [3] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [4] - The price index showed an upward trend, with the main raw materials purchasing price index rising to 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March [3][4] - New momentum in the manufacturing sector is evident, with the equipment manufacturing PMI at 50.3% and high-tech manufacturing PMI at 50.6%, both above the critical point [4] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index stood at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point [5] - The service sector's business activity index was stable at 50.0%, with significant growth in transportation and tourism-related industries, while real estate and residential services lagged [5][6] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 50.6%, influenced by adverse weather conditions, with a corresponding decrease in market expectations [6] Composite PMI - The Composite PMI Output Index decreased to 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [7] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were recorded at 50.5% and 50.1%, respectively, both indicating continued expansion [7]

Group 1 - Manufacturing PMI has risen for two consecutive months, indicating a continued recovery in China's macro economy [5] - In June, the manufacturing PMI increased to 49.7%, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, reflecting an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [6] - The new orders index returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, indicating a recovery in market demand [6] Group 2 - The price index ended a three-month decline, with the main raw material purchase price index at 48.4% and the factory price index at 46.2%, both showing improvement [7] - Large enterprises' PMI rose to 51.2%, significantly supporting the overall manufacturing sector, while small enterprises' PMI fell to 47.3% [7] - The manufacturing sector is expected to maintain steady growth in the second half of the year, driven by policy support and stable market demand [7] Group 3 - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in the service sector [10] - The service sector's business activity index was 50.1%, showing stability, while the business activity expectation index was at 56.0%, reflecting optimism for future growth [10] - The construction business activity index rose to 52.8%, with civil engineering construction remaining robust [11] Group 4 - Infrastructure projects are progressing rapidly, supported by special bonds for land acquisition and government investment funds [11] - The expansion of special bond allocations is expected to stimulate more infrastructure demand, contributing to stable economic growth [11]

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is reported at 49.5%, a significant increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2][4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities[5][14] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand conditions[5][14] - High-energy industries continue to decline, with the PMI dropping to 47.0%, down 0.7 percentage points, indicating ongoing challenges in these sectors[6] External Trade - The new export orders index rose to 47.5%, a significant increase of 2.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in export activities following tariff reductions[21] - The import index increased to 47.1%, up 3.7 percentage points, suggesting improved import conditions[21] Service Sector - The service sector PMI increased slightly to 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, remaining in the expansion zone, driven by increased tourism and hospitality activities during the May Day holiday[31] Construction Sector - The construction PMI is at 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in expansion primarily due to weakened housing demand, although infrastructure projects are accelerating[35] - Special bond issuance has increased significantly, with 443.2 billion yuan issued in May, up from 230.1 billion yuan in April, supporting investment in infrastructure[35]