Core Viewpoint - The financial data for May indicates a reasonable match with the real economy, with significant growth in social financing scale, M2, and RMB loan growth, all surpassing nominal GDP growth, suggesting a stable support for the real economy [1][2]. Financial Data Overview - As of the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 325.78 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [2]. - The narrow money supply (M1) reached 108.91 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [2]. - The total social financing stock was 426.16 trillion yuan, growing by 8.7% year-on-year [2]. - In the first five months, the increment in social financing was 1.863 trillion yuan, which is 383 billion yuan more than the same period last year [2]. Social Financing and Government Bonds - In May, the increment in social financing was 2.29 trillion yuan, which is 224.7 billion yuan more than the previous year, primarily driven by government and corporate bonds [3]. - Government bonds were identified as the main driver for the rapid growth in social financing, with special refinancing bonds and new local special bonds contributing significantly [3]. - The issuance of new special bonds in May reached 443.2 billion yuan, marking a record high for the year [3]. Loan Growth and Structure - The RMB loan balance at the end of May was 266.32 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [6]. - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans was 34.42 trillion yuan, growing by 11.6% year-on-year, while medium to long-term loans in the manufacturing sector reached 14.75 trillion yuan, up by 8.8% [7]. - The recent interest rate cuts have positively influenced loan demand, with many enterprises finding loans more attractive [8]. Market Confidence and Economic Activity - The increase in "liquid money" (M1) growth reflects the effectiveness of recent financial support measures in boosting market confidence and indicating a recovery in investment and consumption activities [4]. - The overall financial volume is expected to maintain stability, supported by resilient economic development and proactive fiscal policies [11]. - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of financial support measures, including interest rate cuts and structural monetary policy tools, which are gradually taking effect [11].

中国人民银行6月13日发布数据显示，5月金融数据与实体经济运行情况合理匹配， 5月社会融资规模、 M2和人民币贷款增速均明显高于名义GDP增速 。 业内专家表示，总体来看，金融总量继续合理增长，支持实体经济力度保持稳固。财政、产业等宏观政 策也靠前发力、更加积极有为，与货币政策形成更强合力，推动经济持续回稳向好。 数据速览： 5月末，广义货币（M2）余额325.78万亿元，同比增长7.9% "5月份这部分'活钱'的增速明显加快，体现近期发布的一揽子金融支持措施有效提振了市场信心，投 资、消费等经济活动有回暖提升的迹象。"这位专家说。 5月末，狭义货币（M1）余额108.91万亿元，同比增长2.3% 5月末，社会融资规模存量426.16万亿元，同比增长8.7% 前5个月，社会融资规模增量18.63万亿元，比上年同期多3.83万亿元 前5个月，人民币贷款增加10.68万亿元 政府债券拉动社融较快增长 数据显示，5月，社会融资规模增量为2.29万亿元，同比多增2247亿元，主要是受到政府债券和企业债 券等直接融资的拉动。 业内专家分析，政府债券是拉动社会融资规模较快增长的最主要因素。进入二季度，在特殊再融资债发 行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent financial data released by the People's Bank of China, indicating a significant increase in social financing and loans, driven by government and corporate bonds, alongside the impact of monetary policy adjustments such as interest rate cuts [1][3][4]. Group 1: Social Financing and Loan Growth - In May, the social financing increment reached 2.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 224.7 billion yuan, with the total social financing stock growing by 8.7% year-on-year [3]. - Government bonds saw a net financing of 1.46 trillion yuan in May, with local governments issuing 443.2 billion yuan in new special bonds, marking a new high for the year [3]. - Corporate bond financing exceeded 140 billion yuan in May, with a decline in the cost of issuing corporate bonds, encouraging companies to increase their bond financing [3][4]. Group 2: Impact of Monetary Policy - The recent interest rate cuts have supported loan demand, with the balance of RMB loans growing by 7.1% year-on-year by the end of May [4]. - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was approximately 3.2%, down about 50 basis points from the previous year, while personal housing loans averaged 3.1%, down about 55 basis points [4]. Group 3: Bond Financing as an Alternative - The increase in government and corporate bond financing has created a substitution effect for bank loans, with bonds and loans together accounting for nearly 90% of social financing [6][8]. - The issuance of replacement bonds has allowed local governments to repay bank loans, potentially impacting overall credit volume [6]. Group 4: Deposit and Loan Growth Discrepancies - In May, new RMB deposits increased significantly by 2.18 trillion yuan, contrasting with a slight decline in new loans [10]. - The differences in deposit and loan growth are attributed to the diversification of financial institutions' assets and changes in financing structures [11][12]. Group 5: Increase in "Active Money" - By the end of May, the narrow money supply (M1) grew by 2.3%, indicating a rise in "active money" which reflects improved market confidence and economic activity [14][15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the growth of social financing and the stability of monetary supply are crucial for supporting economic recovery, with a notable increase in government bond issuance driving this growth [1][2][8] - As of the end of May, the total social financing scale reached 426.16 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, with government bonds being the primary driver of this increase [2][4] - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of financial support measures, including interest rate cuts and structural monetary policy tools, which have begun to take effect and are expected to maintain liquidity at a reasonable level [1][6][8] Group 2 - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has been significant, with over 2 trillion yuan issued in the last quarter of the previous year and more than 1.6 trillion yuan this year, which has helped to replace bank loans and maintain loan growth around 8% [3][6] - The growth of fixed asset investment funding sources, including government bonds, has outpaced other sources, with a year-on-year increase of 16.7% [4][5] - The trend of bonds substituting loans is evident, with nearly 90% of social financing comprising bonds and loans, indicating a complementary relationship that supports economic stability [2][3] Group 3 - The growth of M1 and M2 money supply indicates a positive trend in liquidity, with M1 growing by 2.3% and M2 by 7.9% as of the end of May, reflecting the effectiveness of recent monetary policies [7][8] - The overall loan balance reached 266.32 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1%, and specific sectors like small and micro enterprises and manufacturing showing even higher growth rates [6][7] - The current economic environment, characterized by active fiscal policies and a resilient economic foundation, is expected to support stable growth in financial totals moving forward [8]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in social financing scale growth under proactive fiscal policy, with a total social financing scale of 426.16 trillion yuan as of May 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [4] - The total amount of RMB loans to the real economy reached 262.86 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7% [4] - The total RMB deposits increased by 14.73 trillion yuan in the first five months, with household deposits rising by 8.3 trillion yuan [2] Group 2 - The broad money supply (M2) stood at 325.78 trillion yuan at the end of May, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) was recorded at 108.91 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [1] - In the first five months, RMB loans increased by 10.68 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 572.4 billion yuan and corporate loans increasing by 9.8 trillion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent financial data released by the People's Bank of China, indicating a significant increase in social financing and loans, alongside a stable growth in broad money supply (M2) despite a slight month-on-month decline [1][2]. Financial Data Summary - In May, the incremental social financing reached 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 224.7 billion yuan year-on-year, with new RMB loans amounting to 620 billion yuan [1][3]. - As of the end of May, the year-on-year growth of broad money (M2) was 7.9%, showing a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month but 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1]. Government and Corporate Debt Impact - The growth in social financing was primarily driven by government and corporate bonds, with net financing from government bonds reaching 1.46 trillion yuan in May [3][4]. - The issuance of new special bonds by local governments hit a record high of 443.2 billion yuan in May, indicating strong demand in key sectors like real estate [3][4]. Loan Demand and Structure - Despite a year-on-year decline in new RMB loans, the total RMB loan balance grew by 7.1% year-on-year, reflecting stable loan demand [5][6]. - In May, corporate sector loans accounted for nearly 530 billion yuan, supported by recent interest rate cuts and favorable external trade conditions [6][7]. Alternative Financing Trends - The increasing issuance of government and corporate bonds has created a substitution effect for loans, with bonds and loans together accounting for nearly 90% of social financing [8][9]. - The shift towards direct financing through bonds is seen as beneficial for high-growth sectors, aligning with the ongoing economic transformation [9]. Deposit and Loan Growth Discrepancies - In May, new RMB deposits surged to 2.18 trillion yuan, contrasting with the decline in new loans, attributed to the diversification of financial institutions' assets and changes in financing structures [11][12]. - The article notes that the growth of deposits and loans may not always align due to various influencing factors, including the rise of wealth management products and market conditions [12][13]. Increase in "Active Money" - The narrow money supply (M1) grew by 2.3% year-on-year, indicating an increase in "active money" which reflects improved market confidence and a potential uptick in economic activities [14][15].

Core Insights - The financial aggregate indicators have exceeded the nominal economic growth rate by a historically high margin and have sustained this for a considerable duration [1] Financial Data Summary - In May, the new social financing increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, which is 224.7 billion yuan more than the same month last year [1] - The new RMB loans amounted to nearly 620 billion yuan in May [1] - By the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 7.9% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] Economic Growth Context - In previous years, China's nominal economic growth rate was close to 10%, with social financing and loan growth also maintaining slightly above 10%, indicating a basic match between the two [1] - Recently, the macroeconomic environment has shifted to a medium-to-high growth phase, with financial aggregates continuing to grow at over 8%, exceeding the nominal economic growth rate by approximately 4 percentage points [1]

央行：1-5月社会融资规模增量18.63万亿元 比上年同期多3.83万亿元 智通财经6月13日电，央行数据显示，中国1-5月社会融资规模增量18.63万亿元，比上年同期多3.83万亿 元；1-4月为16.3429万亿元。其中，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加10.38万亿元，同比多增1123亿 元；对实体经济发放的外币贷款折合人民币减少963亿元，同比多减1690亿元；委托贷款减少113亿元， 同比少减802亿元；信托贷款增加627亿元，同比少增1723亿元；未贴现的银行承兑汇票增加1343亿元， 同比多增1662亿元；企业债券净融资9087亿元，同比少2884亿元；政府债券净融资6.31万亿元，同比多 3.81万亿元；非金融企业境内股票融资1504亿元，同比多444亿元。 ...

Group 1: Economic Performance - As of May 31, 2025, the "old-for-new" program has driven sales of 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued to consumers[5] - The estimated fiscal funding of 139.2 billion yuan represents 42% of the progress towards the target, closely aligning with the scheduled progress of 5/12[5] - The retail sales growth for April was 5.1%, down from 5.9% in March, but still better than the previous year's performance[9] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Trends - The "old-for-new" program has reached 12.4% of the population with 175 million subsidies issued, indicating significant coverage and potential for future growth[5] - The demand for building and decoration materials improved in April, with a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, the highest since December 2021[9] - The retail sales of gold and jewelry surged to a year-on-year increase of 25.3% in April, reflecting strong consumer interest driven by rising gold prices[9] Group 3: Investment and Financing - The total social financing scale increased by 11.59 billion yuan in April, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%[12] - Government bond issuance maintained a rapid pace, with new issuance of 972.9 billion yuan in April, significantly higher than the previous year[13] - Corporate loans decreased by 250 billion yuan year-on-year in April, while corporate bonds saw an increase of 633 billion yuan, indicating a shift in financing methods[13] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Fluctuations in Trump's tariff policies continue to impact market risk appetite, contributing to uncertainty in trade relations[5] - The restructuring of the industrial chain due to tariffs poses risks of global growth slowdown and overcapacity[5]

关税扰动持续，基本面支撑仍存 6月铜月报 2025-6-3 【产业服务总部 | 有色产业中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 01 行情回顾 02 宏观因素分析 03 基本面分析 05 后市展望 目 录 04 技术面分析 02 宏观因素分析 01 行情回顾 01 沪铜行情回顾 5月铜价区间震荡。运行区间7.7万元-7.9万元。特朗普关税政策持续影响市场，中美、英美就关税达成一致协议减弱关税负面影响，美国与欧盟等国贸 易谈判仍过程阻滞。美国通胀升温预期仍存，就业整体稳健。基本面偏强，矿端仍较为紧缺，铜精矿现货粗炼费持续负值且扩大，Kakula因震动而停产，同 时铜下游需求端仍有支撑，中美经贸会谈达成带来抢出口需求，低库存仍支撑铜价。 资料来源：同花顺ifind、长江期货有色产业服务中心 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 沪铜主力日K线 美国 ...