Report Overview The report is a macro monthly report from Hualian Futures, covering various aspects of the economy including foreign exchange, real estate, prices, trade, investment, and economic indicators in China and the US. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Foreign Exchange**: After the Spring Festival, the RMB strengthened against the US dollar, driven by both external (Fed's rate - cut cycle and US policy uncertainty) and internal (resilient domestic economy and post - Spring Festival corporate settlement demand) factors. The central bank adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio to prevent rapid RMB appreciation [7]. - **Real Estate**: Shanghai introduced new real estate policies in February 2026, which are expected to help the Shanghai real estate market stabilize and recover first, leading the repair of first - tier cities [9]. - **Prices**: In January 2026, China's CPI showed a mild recovery and PPI continued to repair, with clear positive signals in core indicators [11]. - **Finance**: In January 2026, China's new social financing aggregate had an unexpected good start, with a credit structure characterized by strong consumption and weak mortgages, and an increase in M1 driving the activation of currency liquidity [13]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Monthly Viewpoint and Strategy - **Foreign Exchange**: The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar reached a new high. The RMB's appreciation was driven by external factors such as the Fed's rate - cut cycle and internal factors like the resilient domestic economy. The central bank adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio from 20% to 0 to balance the foreign exchange market [7]. - **Real Estate**: Shanghai issued new real estate policies in February 2026, including shortening the social security requirement for non - Shanghai residents to buy houses, increasing the provident fund loan limit, and relaxing the loan - set recognition. The national real estate market is still in an adjustment period, and Shanghai is expected to recover first [9]. - **Prices**: In January 2026, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, with food prices down 0.7% and non - food prices up 0.4%. PPI decreased by 1.4% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [11]. - **Finance**: In January 2026, China's new social financing aggregate was 7.22 trillion yuan, with government bonds being the main driving force. Credit data showed a structural differentiation, with strong consumer loans and weak mortgage loans. M1 - M2 scissors - difference narrowed, indicating more active currency liquidity [13]. 3.2 National Economic Accounting - **GDP Growth**: From 2023 - 2025, the GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rate showed fluctuations. Different industries had different growth rates, with the information transmission, software and information technology services and the leasing and business services industries showing relatively high growth [16]. - **Contribution of Three Industries**: The contributions of the three industries to the constant - price GDP quarterly year - on - year growth and the GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rate varied over time [17]. 3.3 Industry Data - **Industry Growth**: The growth rate of the industrial added value of different industries showed differences. For example, the automobile manufacturing, railway, ship, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industries had relatively high growth rates [30][34]. - **Industrial Output**: The output of major industrial products such as crude oil, coal, and steel also showed certain trends. For instance, the output of crude oil and steel fluctuated over time [36]. - **Electricity Consumption**: In November 2025, China's total social electricity consumption was 835.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The growth rate of high - energy - consuming industries in the secondary industry slowed down, while high - tech and equipment manufacturing maintained a high growth rate of 6% - 10% [45]. - **Industrial Profits**: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 7.3982 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. Different industries had different profit situations, with the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry having a significant increase in profit [49]. - **Industrial Inventory**: At the end of 2025, the accounts receivable of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 27.43 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%. The finished - product inventory was 6.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%, and the actual inventory growth rate after excluding price factors was about 5.8% [59]. 3.4 Price Index - **CPI**: In January 2026, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 0.7%, and non - food prices increased by 0.4%. Different CPI sub - items had different price changes [66]. - **PPI**: In January 2026, China's PPI decreased by 1.4% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing. The prices of production materials and living materials both showed certain changes [74]. 3.5 Real Estate - **New Residential Prices**: In January 2026, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with Shanghai being an exception with a 4.2% increase. Second - and third - tier cities also saw price declines [85]. - **Second - hand Residential Prices**: In January 2026, the sales prices of second - hand residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 7.6% year - on - year. Second - and third - tier cities also had price declines [89]. 3.6 Foreign Trade and Investment - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, China's total import and export value was 601.42 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6.24%. Exports were 357.78 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%, and imports were 243.64 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 5.7% [99]. - **Key Commodity Exports and Imports**: The export and import amounts of key commodities such as agricultural products, industrial raw materials, and mechanical and electrical products showed different trends over time [106][107]. 3.7 Fixed - Asset Investment - **Total Fixed - Asset Investment**: In 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 48.5186 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. Different industries had different investment growth rates, with the secondary industry having a 2.5% increase and the third industry having a 7.4% decrease [119]. - **Real Estate Investment**: In 2025, the national real estate development investment was 8.2788 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The construction area, new construction area, completion area, sales area, and sales amount of real estate all showed declines [127][131][135]. 3.8 Domestic Trade - **Retail Sales**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of service retail sales and social consumer goods retail sales showed certain trends. The retail sales of different industries also had different growth rates [163][170]. 3.9 Transportation - **Freight and Passenger Transport**: The transportation volumes of different freight and passenger transport modes showed different trends. The traffic flow of subways in nine major cities and the investment in transportation fixed assets also had certain characteristics [173][174][176]. 3.10 Banking and Currency - **Social Financing**: The new social financing scale and its components showed different trends over time. The stock of social financing scale and its components also had different year - on - year growth rates [184][185]. - **Credit**: The new RMB loans and their components, including short - term and long - term loans, household loans, and enterprise loans, showed different trends [194]. - **Monetary Liquidity**: In January, the M1 growth rate declined significantly, and the M2 growth rate increased slightly. The M2 - M1 scissors - difference expanded to 4.7%, indicating a slowdown in capital activation [200]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The central bank emphasized reasonable interest rate control to promote a stable decline in the financing cost of the real economy. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar and the US dollar index showed certain trends, and the foreign exchange and gold reserves increased [210][221]. 3.11 Fiscal and Employment - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: The general public fiscal revenue and expenditure of the central and local governments showed different trends. Different types of fiscal revenues and expenditures also had different changes [236][237]. - **Employment**: The number of newly - added urban jobs and the urban survey unemployment rate showed certain trends [241]. 3.12 Business Surveys - **Global Manufacturing PMI**: The global manufacturing PMI showed certain fluctuations from 2025 - 2026. Different countries and regions had different PMI values [246]. - **China Manufacturing PMI**: In January 2026, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a seasonal decline of 0.8 percentage points. Different sub - indicators such as production, new orders, and prices showed different trends [249]. - **China Non - Manufacturing PMI**: In January 2026, China's non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%, a decline of 0.8 percentage points. The construction and service industries both saw a decline in business activity, with different degrees of industry differentiation [257]. 3.13 US Macroeconomy - **GDP Growth**: The US real GDP环比折年率 showed fluctuations from 2023 - 2025. Different components such as private consumption, investment, and government spending had different contributions to GDP growth [264]. - **Employment**: The number of newly - added non - farm jobs and the unemployment rate in the US showed certain trends [265]. - **Treasury Yields**: The yields of US Treasury bonds of different maturities and the yield curve inversion degree showed certain trends [272]. - **Retail Sales**: The retail and food service sales in the US showed different year - on - year growth rates for different categories [273]. - **Federal Reserve**: The asset structure of the Federal Reserve and the federal funds rate showed certain trends. The reverse repurchase amount on the liability side of the Federal Reserve decreased significantly this year [274][277].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China Guangdong Branch reported that as of the end of January 2026, the total balance of domestic and foreign currency loans in Guangdong reached 30.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.9% and an increase of 350.4 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [1][2] Loan Breakdown - Household loans increased by 18.4 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, which is a year-on-year decrease of 36.5 billion yuan. Short-term loans decreased by 7.2 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans increased by 25.6 billion yuan [2] - Corporate loans increased by 297.3 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, showing a year-on-year decrease of 55.6 billion yuan. Short-term loans increased by 168 billion yuan, medium to long-term loans increased by 201.9 billion yuan, while bill financing decreased by 74.1 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China released January financial statistics, indicating a stable growth in credit and social financing, reflecting a supportive monetary policy environment for the beginning of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In January 2026, new RMB loans amounted to 4.71 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 420 billion [1]. - The new social financing scale reached 7.22 trillion, an increase of 1,662 billion compared to the same period last year [1]. - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 9.0% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [1]. - The narrow money supply (M1) increased by 4.9% year-on-year, with a growth rate acceleration of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [1]. Group 2: Economic Insights - Despite a year-on-year decrease in new RMB loans, the demand side shows signs of recovery, with a credit growth rate of 6.1%, surpassing nominal economic growth [1]. - The increase in social financing reflects a high level of support from the monetary policy, contributing to a stable economic start for the year [1][2]. - The chief economist of China Minsheng Bank noted that January is a traditional peak month for credit, with early project releases and significant infrastructure loan approvals contributing to the high loan volume [1][2]. Group 3: Consumer and Business Loan Trends - Household loans increased by 456.5 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 127 billion, supported by pre-holiday consumption [4]. - Short-term loans for residents rose by 109.7 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 1,594 billion, while medium to long-term loans increased by 346.9 billion, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1,466 billion [4]. - The demand for personal loans was boosted by seasonal consumption trends and marketing efforts, with policies optimizing personal consumption and business loans [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall data for new credit and social financing in January appears stable, with expectations for a potential opening of a window for interest rate cuts in the second quarter [5]. - Factors such as increased bond financing, local government debt replacement, and weak credit demand from businesses and households may keep new loan levels moderate in 2026 [5]. - Social financing is expected to maintain a significant year-on-year increase, serving as a key indicator of financial support for the real economy [5].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China released the financial statistics report for January 2026, indicating a total deposit balance of 344.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [1] - The balance of RMB deposits reached 336.77 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [1] Deposit Growth - In January, RMB deposits increased by 8.09 trillion yuan, with household deposits rising by 2.13 trillion yuan, non-financial enterprise deposits increasing by 2.61 trillion yuan, fiscal deposits up by 1.55 trillion yuan, and deposits from non-bank financial institutions growing by 1.45 trillion yuan [1] - The balance of foreign currency deposits stood at 1.1 trillion USD, marking a year-on-year increase of 23.7% [1] - In January, foreign currency deposits rose by 43.8 billion USD [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported a social financing scale increment of 7.22 trillion yuan in January 2026, which is an increase of 166.2 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [1] - The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 4.9 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 317.8 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - Foreign currency loans to the real economy, converted to RMB, increased by 46.8 billion yuan, which is an increase of 86 billion yuan year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Entrusted loans decreased by 19.2 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 64.1 billion yuan [1] - Trust loans decreased by 0.4 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 62.7 billion yuan [1] - The amount of undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 629.3 billion yuan, which is an increase of 163.9 billion yuan year-on-year [1] Group 3 - Net financing through corporate bonds was 503.3 billion yuan, which is an increase of 57.9 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - Net financing through government bonds was 976.4 billion yuan, which is an increase of 283.1 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - Domestic stock financing for non-financial enterprises was 29.1 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 18.2 billion yuan year-on-year [1]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China released the financial statistics report for January 2026, indicating a total loan balance of 280.59 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6% [1] - The yuan loan balance reached 276.62 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [1] Loan Breakdown - In January, the increase in yuan loans amounted to 4.71 trillion yuan [1] - Household loans rose by 456.5 billion yuan, with short-term loans increasing by 109.7 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans by 346.9 billion yuan [1] - Corporate loans increased by 4.45 trillion yuan, with short-term loans up by 2.05 trillion yuan and medium to long-term loans by 3.18 trillion yuan; however, bill financing decreased by 873.9 billion yuan [1] - Non-bank financial institution loans decreased by 188.2 billion yuan [1] Foreign Currency Loans - The foreign currency loan balance stood at 570.1 billion USD, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [1] - In January, foreign currency loans increased by 25.1 billion USD [1]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank released the financial statistics report for January 2026, highlighting significant growth in interbank RMB market transactions, with a total turnover of 211.96 trillion yuan and a daily average turnover of 10.09 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.1% [1] Group 1: Market Transactions - In January, the interbank RMB market saw a total transaction volume of 211.96 trillion yuan, with a daily average of 10.09 trillion yuan [1] - The year-on-year growth in daily average transactions was driven by a 75.6% increase in interbank lending, a 9.2% increase in cash transactions, and a 40.7% increase in pledged repos [1] Group 2: Interest Rates - The weighted average interest rate for interbank lending in January was 1.4%, which is 0.04 percentage points higher than the previous month but 0.46 percentage points lower than the same period last year [1] - The weighted average interest rate for pledged repos was 1.43%, up by 0.03 percentage points from the previous month and down by 0.73 percentage points year-on-year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank released the financial statistics report for January 2026, highlighting significant growth in interbank RMB market transactions, with a total turnover of 211.96 trillion yuan and a daily average turnover of 10.09 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.1% [1] Group 1: Market Transactions - In January, the interbank RMB market saw a total transaction volume of 211.96 trillion yuan, with a daily average of 10.09 trillion yuan [1] - The year-on-year growth in daily average transactions was 36.1%, with interbank lending showing a remarkable increase of 75.6% [1] - The daily average transaction volume for cash bonds increased by 9.2%, while the pledged repo daily average transaction volume rose by 40.7% [1] Group 2: Interest Rates - The weighted average interest rate for interbank lending in January was 1.4%, which is 0.04 percentage points higher than the previous month but 0.46 percentage points lower than the same period last year [1] - The weighted average interest rate for pledged repos was 1.43%, up by 0.03 percentage points from the previous month and down by 0.73 percentage points year-on-year [1]

Core Insights - The central theme of the news is the significant increase in household deposits and the rising proportion of fixed-term deposits in China, as reported by the central bank and various local financial institutions for the year 2025 [1][2][5]. Group 1: Financial Statistics - As of the end of December 2025, the total balance of domestic and foreign currency deposits reached 336.14 trillion yuan, marking a 9% year-on-year increase [2][5]. - The balance of household deposits stood at 167.04 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.71% [2][5]. - The average per capita deposit for the national population, estimated at 1.40489 billion, is approximately 118,900 yuan [2][5]. Group 2: Deposit Structure - The proportion of fixed-term deposits has reached a record high of 73.3%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous year [2][3]. - In various provinces, fixed-term deposits account for over 70% of total deposits, with Hebei showing the highest at 80.68% [3][5]. - The structure of household deposits indicates a shift towards fixed-term savings, with the "fixed vs. current" ratio entering a "70-30" era [2][3]. Group 3: Regional Insights - Zhejiang province leads with the highest per capita deposit of 177,700 yuan, with a total deposit balance of 24.63 trillion yuan [5][6]. - Jiangsu province reported the largest increase in household deposits, with a year-on-year growth of 11.48%, bringing the total to 13.3 trillion yuan [7]. - Guangdong province has the highest total deposit balance at 38.7 trillion yuan, with a per capita deposit of approximately 118,300 yuan [6][9].

Deposit Situation - As of the end of December, the total balance of deposits in both domestic and foreign currencies reached 30,893 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.75%, an increase of 2.01 percentage points compared to the same period last year, and an increase of 0.64 percentage points from the previous month [1][3] - The total deposits increased by 2,223 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, which is 668 billion yuan more than the same period last year. In December alone, deposits increased by 589 billion yuan, which is 211 billion yuan more than the same month last year [1][3] - Household deposits amounted to 15,683 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.49%. For the entire year, household deposits increased by 1,359 billion yuan, with December contributing an increase of 276 billion yuan [1][3] - Non-financial enterprise deposits totaled 10,296 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.33%. For the year, non-financial enterprise deposits increased by 521 billion yuan, with December seeing an increase of 263 billion yuan [1][3] Loan Situation - As of the end of December, the total balance of loans in both domestic and foreign currencies reached 34,020 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.63%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to the same period last year, and an increase of 0.91 percentage points from the previous month [2][4] - The total loans increased by 2,115 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, which is 356 billion yuan more than the same period last year. In December, loans increased by 367 billion yuan, which is 295 billion yuan more than the same month last year [2][4] - Household loans amounted to 8,370 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.49%. For the entire year, household loans decreased by 127 billion yuan, with December recording a decrease of 19 billion yuan [2][4] - Loans to enterprises and institutions reached 25,155 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.83%. For the year, loans to enterprises and institutions increased by 2,041 billion yuan, with December contributing an increase of 199 billion yuan [2][4] - In terms of loan duration, short-term loans amounted to 9,155 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.86%. For the year, short-term loans increased by 971 billion yuan, with December seeing an increase of 99 billion yuan [2][4] - Medium and long-term loans totaled 22,230 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.16%. For the year, medium and long-term loans increased by 682 billion yuan, with December recording a decrease of 40 billion yuan [2][4]