At the Federal Reserve's most recent meeting, they released their forecast for lower GDP, higher unemployment, and inflation than at the previous meeting. They projected GDP at 1.4%, unemployment to rise to 4.5%. And inflation to reach 3% in 2025.This combination of slowing growth and persistent inflation fits the classic definition of stagflation. A rare economic environment where both joblessness and prices climb at the same time. Now, in past instances of stagflation, it's been an exogenous force that pu ...

RT Ray Dalio (@RayDalio)"I promise to not raise your taxes" and "I promise to not cut your benefits" are the two popular political promises that are inconsistent with the much more needed promise "I promise to cut the budget deficit to about 3 percent of GDP" that is required to prevent a big debt/dollar crisis. There is no way that the deficit/debt bomb problem can be sustainably dealt with unless there is a mix of tax revenue increases and spending decreases that are determined in a bipartisan way. Our re ...

Welcome back. The S&P 500 NASDAQ hitting record highs this morning as we close out the first half of the year. Joining us now, Apollo global management chief economist Torson Sllock to give his outlook for the economy in the second half of the year.Torson, very good morning to you. Good to see you. Thanks for having me.Um, just that snapshot on what we learned there from Kevin Hasset and the developments over the weekend. Is is your expectation that the big beautiful bill ultimately does whether it's this w ...

Just as the Senate has begun voting on what's known as the big, beautiful bill. You look at the latest version of the tax bill. The big question that remains is the GOP holdouts.What kind of deal can be cut with those holdouts. And what are you and the president prepared to offer for support. Well, I'm confident that the bill is going to progress, as is over the next few hours, and it'll be on the president's desk to sign on July 4th.So the Senate Senate will vote, pass it over to the House. We've seen incr ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 30 日 [Table_Title] PMI 不弱，政策不急 6 月 30 日， 统计局发布 6 月 PMI。制造业 PMI 49.7%，预期 49.7%，前值 49.5%。非制造业 PMI 50.5%，前值 50.3%。关注以下几个方面： 第一，二季度综合 PMI 平均值较一季度放缓。6 月综合 PMI 反弹 0.3 个百分点至 50.7%，二季度的平均值 为 50.4%，低于一季度的平均值 50.9%，也低于去年二季度的平均值 51.1%，不过要好于去年三季度的平均值 50.2%。综合 PMI 反映制造业和非制造业的生产情况环比走势，与生产法 GDP 环比存在较强的相关性。按照综 合 PMI 环比推算同比，二季度现价 GDP 同比增速可能较今年一季度出现放缓，不过二季度不变价 GDP 同比仍 可能达到 5.0%或略高的水平。 第二，订单和价格指向供需匹配情况改善。价格方面，制造业、建筑业和服务业价格分项分别反弹 1.5、 0.8 和 1.6 个百分点，制造业原材料购进价也反弹 1.5 个百分点，不过四者介于 46-49%区间，仍 ...

Economic Outlook - The economic outlook has brightened a bit, but it's not as rosy as the market looks [1] - Most forecasts still see tariff effects weakening growth and driving inflation higher [2] - The average of 15 forecasts on the street in the CNBC rapid update up almost a percentage point for the second quarter to 25% from 16% in April [2] - The overall year outlook is 13% [3] Inflation and Fed Policy - Average core PCE inflation also came down for the second quarter with what looks to be an expectation of a delayed tariff impact, but it's forecast to shoot up in the third and fourth quarters back towards 3% before settling down next year [4] - Inflation remains a percentage point above and it fuels this debate about whether the Fed should cut now or hold till those numbers start to come down [5] - The Fed's dilemma is weaker growth, but inflation remains relatively high [10] - If the Fed can feel confident that inflation will come down, they could maybe cut a little bit in the back half of this year [11] Tariff Impact - There have been markdowns in the earnings outlook for tariff affected companies [9] - The idea being when you put up GDP numbers that are weaker towards 1%, the theory is that something's got to give in terms of tariffs [8] - It looks like the tariff impact will be a little less, and if we get out of this with a couple quarters of weaker growth, that would be getting off cheap [9]

Economic Overview - In Q1 2025, the US economy showed a complex picture with a GDP decline of 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate, marking the first quarterly negative growth in nearly three years [1] - The decline was primarily driven by a sharp drop in private consumption growth to 0.5%, the lowest in five years, along with reduced federal spending and increased imports [1] - Despite the decline, the revised GDP data indicated a total GDP of $7.49 trillion, maintaining the US's position as the world's largest economy, accounting for 26% of global GDP [1] Comparison with China - China's Q1 GDP reached approximately $4.44 trillion, maintaining its status as the second-largest economy, but the proportion of China's GDP to the US GDP fell to 59%, down from 77% in 2021 [1][3] - China's GDP growth was 5.4% year-on-year, significantly higher than the US's 2% growth, but the nominal GDP growth and GDP increment were lower than the US due to differing inflation levels [3] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The differing inflation levels between the US and China have a direct impact on GDP increments, with the US maintaining high interest rates while China has been lowering them [3] - As of March 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.4%, while China's CPI decreased by 0.1%, highlighting the contrasting price levels in both countries [3] Currency Exchange Rate Impact - The depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar is a critical factor, with the average exchange rate in Q1 2025 at 7.176, leading to a reduction of approximately $500 billion in China's GDP when converted to dollars [5] - If the exchange rate had remained stable, China's GDP proportion could have risen back to around 60% [5] Statistical Methodology Differences - There are significant differences in GDP calculation methods between the two countries, with China using the production method and the US using the expenditure method, leading to discrepancies in reported GDP figures [7] - For instance, in Q1 2025, the US real estate sector contributed $943 billion to GDP, while China's contribution was only $360 billion, reflecting the US's highly financialized economy compared to China's manufacturing-driven economy [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. government's "reciprocal tariff" policy, highlighting the unexpected expansion of the trade deficit and the potential economic consequences as the deadline for trade negotiations approaches [1][4][11]. Trade Data Summary - As of May, the U.S. goods trade deficit unexpectedly widened to $96.6 billion, exceeding market expectations of $86.1 billion, marking the highest trade deficit for the first five months of the year in history [2][5]. - The trade deficit has been primarily driven by a 5.2% decline in U.S. goods exports, which fell to $179.2 billion, the largest drop since the pandemic began [6]. - In contrast, some countries, such as Vietnam and Thailand, saw their exports to the U.S. surge by approximately 35%, reaching historical highs [6]. Economic Impact - The U.S. economy experienced its first contraction since 2022, with a GDP decline of 0.5% on an annualized basis, attributed to increased imports and decreased government spending [3][14]. - The first quarter saw imports rise by 37.9%, the fastest growth since 2020, negatively impacting GDP by nearly 4.7 percentage points [14]. - The core PCE price index rose by 2.68% year-on-year in May, surpassing expectations and reaching its highest level since February 2025 [14]. Trade Negotiation Status - The U.S. has only reached a trade agreement with the UK, which remains largely a framework with many details yet to be finalized [8]. - Negotiations with other major trading partners, including Japan and India, have stalled, with concerns over potential additional tariffs hindering progress [8][9]. - The U.S. government has requested trade partners to submit their best offers amid slow negotiation progress, indicating urgency in reaching agreements [10]. Employment and Economic Risks - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose to 1.974 million, the highest level since November 2021, indicating increasing job market challenges [15]. - The credit card delinquency rate reached 3.05%, the highest since 2011, while housing market pressures are mounting due to affordability and inventory issues [15]. - The World Bank forecasts a global economic growth rate of 2.3% for 2025, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis, reflecting widespread economic weakness [15].

智通财经6月27日电，加拿大4月份GDP较上个月下降0.1%，预估为持平。 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming release of key economic indicators, specifically the U.S. personal income and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for May, scheduled for 20:30 Beijing time [1] - Additionally, it mentions the Canadian GDP data for April will also be published at the same time [1]