Group 1: Industrial Production Trends - The industrial production shows signs of seasonal weakness, but infrastructure construction is experiencing a slight recovery. The blast furnace operating rate and apparent consumption have both increased year-on-year, with a rise of +1.1 and +0.5 percentage points to 2.2% and -0.3% respectively [2][6] - The social inventory of steel has seen a rebound [2] - In the textile sector, operating rates are higher than the same period last year, while the polyester filament and automotive sectors have seen a decline in operating rates [14][20] Group 2: Cement and Construction Industry - Cement production and demand are recovering, with grinding operating rates increasing significantly by +6.0 percentage points to -0.2% year-on-year. Cement shipment rates have also improved by +0.8 percentage points to -2.2% [25][29] - The cement inventory ratio has slightly decreased by -0.5 percentage points to -0.2% [32] Group 3: Glass and Asphalt Production - Glass consumption has decreased, with production slightly rebounding but still down by -7.7% year-on-year. Apparent consumption has also fallen by -5.0 percentage points to 8.7% [37][41] - Asphalt operating rates have increased year-on-year, up by +2.5 percentage points to 8.0% [37] Group 4: Real Estate and Demand Trends - The transaction volume of commercial housing has declined, with a year-on-year decrease of -13.6 percentage points to -19.6% in 30 major cities. The largest drop is observed in third-tier cities, with a decline of -44.0 percentage points to -31.5% [49][50] - National railway and highway freight volumes have also decreased, with year-on-year declines of -0.5 percentage points to 6.5% and -0.8 percentage points to 2.8% respectively [60][64] Group 5: Export and Shipping Trends - The shipping prices continue to decline, with the CCFI composite index dropping by -2.3% week-on-week. The Southeast Asia route has seen a significant price drop of -3.9% [89][90] - The BDI average price has also decreased by -3.1% [89] Group 6: Price Trends in Agriculture and Industry - Agricultural product prices are showing divergence, with pork and fruit prices falling by -0.3% and -0.2% respectively, while vegetable and egg prices have increased by +0.6% and +3.6% [101][105] - The industrial product prices have generally declined, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index dropping by -1.4% [113][114]

Economic Growth (GDP) - Hong Kong's GDP increased from $29 billion in 1980 to $172 billion in 2000, projected to reach $424 billion by 2025 [1] - Singapore's GDP increased from $12 billion in 1980 to $96 billion in 2000, projected to reach $565 billion by 2025 [1] - Taiwan's GDP increased from $42 billion in 1980 to $319 billion in 2000, projected to reach $850 billion by 2025 [1] - South Korea's GDP increased from $65 billion in 1980 to $576 billion in 2000, projected to reach $1790 billion (or $179 trillion) by 2025 [1]

Economic Overview - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was reported at 3.0%, significantly exceeding the mainstream forecast of 2.5%, but this figure is misleading due to a sharp 30.3% drop in imports, which artificially inflated the GDP data [1] - The core indicator of domestic private final purchases has seen a decline in annual growth rate from 2.7% last year to 1.2%, indicating underlying economic weakness despite the seemingly strong GDP figure [1] Consumer Behavior - Actual personal consumption growth increased from 0.5% in Q1 to 1.4% in Q2, but this is still below last year's robust performance, with service consumption remaining weak, only slightly recovering by 1.1% [3] - Despite acceptable income and savings levels, consumer and investor sentiment is cautious due to various uncertainties, leading to a reluctance to increase spending [5] Investment Trends - Non-residential fixed investment growth has significantly slowed, with construction investment plummeting by 10.3% in Q2 following a 2.4% decline in Q1, while residential investment also fell by 4.6% [5] - Inventory changes further illustrate economic volatility, with inventory contributing 2.6 percentage points to GDP growth in Q1 but detracting 3.2 percentage points in Q2 [6] Inflation and Economic Dynamics - The core PCE price index rose to 2.54% in Q2, exceeding market expectations, which has led to more conservative spending and investment behaviors among households and businesses [8] - The economic landscape in the first half of 2025 has been characterized by significant fluctuations, with contrasting trends in imports and inventory affecting market sentiment and analyst predictions [8] Emerging Sectors - Surprisingly, sectors such as AI and data centers have not emerged as engines of economic growth, with reduced investments in power plants and a slowdown in data center and IT investments [9] Employment and Income Relevance - For the general public, GDP figures are less relevant than personal employment and income, as the true impact of economic conditions is reflected in daily life [11]

Economic Statistics & Independence - The importance of believing in reliable statistics about unemployment, inflation, and GDP for managing business and the economy is highlighted [1] - Independent statistical agencies are crucial for collecting data, and maintaining confidence in their independence is paramount, with bipartisan agreement on this principle [1] - Undermining the credibility of the Federal Reserve (Fed) can lead to concerns about inflation and erode confidence in the US dollar and the US economy [1] Political Influence & Economic Policy - Concerns are raised about the potential politicization of interest rates, fearing that rates might be lowered before elections to inflate the economy, leading to adverse consequences after the election [1] - Pressure on the Fed, as exerted by Donald Trump, is considered unconscionable because it undermines the Fed's credibility [1] - Historically, presidents have desired certain economic outcomes, such as lower interest rates, and have exerted pressure on Fed chairs [1]

Tariff Negotiations - On July 9, President Trump announced a delay in "reciprocal" tariffs until August 1, with a commitment that this date "will not change" [2] - By August 1, the U.S. had reached trade agreements with most major trading countries, reducing uncertainty around tariff policies [2] - The new tariff rates are expected to be lower than previous proposals but will still range from 10% to 20% for various countries [16] Economic Impact - The Yale Budget Lab estimates that the tariffs could generate $2.3 trillion in revenue for the U.S. government over the next 10 years, assuming import shares remain unchanged [3] - The increase in tariffs may lead to a 1.8% rise in consumer prices in 2025 if the Federal Reserve does not respond with policy changes [17] - The tariffs are projected to decrease GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points in 2025 and 2026 due to increased consumer burden and retaliatory measures [17] Currency and Investment - Increased investment in the U.S. and procurement of American goods may support the dollar's exchange rate and facilitate the return of manufacturing [24] - The combination of trade surplus and capital inflow could lead to a temporary appreciation of the dollar [24] Inflation and Federal Reserve Response - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to become fully evident in July and August, with price adjustments typically occurring 1-3 months after tariff implementation [25] - Following recent comments from Fed Chair Powell, the probability of a rate cut in September has dropped below 50% [25] Risk Factors - There are significant geopolitical risks that could exceed expectations, potentially impacting trade agreements and economic stability [35]

On this episode of the Everybody's Business podcast, @krogoff joins @svaneksmith and @chafkin to give his take on the latest GDP numbers and why President Donald Trump's policies can be compared to a game of "4D chess" https://t.co/i51n7zR9iH https://t.co/GRORjAPSzF ...

Economic Comparison - In 2024, China's GDP is projected at 134.9 trillion yuan (approximately 18.94 trillion USD), while the US GDP is expected to reach 29.2 trillion USD, widening the gap to 10 trillion USD, with China's share decreasing from 67% to 65% [1] - The US nominal GDP growth is significantly influenced by high inflation, with a cumulative price increase of 21.2% over the past four years, while China's CPI only increased by 0.2% in 2024, indicating a more stable economic environment [3][4] Statistical Methodology - The US includes imputed rent in its GDP calculations, which allowed it to "gain" 610 billion USD in Q1 2025, a method not applicable in China, which uses a production-based approach for GDP accounting [4] - The difference in statistical methodologies highlights the disparity in economic reporting and the potential for manipulation of GDP figures [4] Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) - According to the International Monetary Fund, China's PPP GDP is projected to reach 39.44 trillion international dollars by 2025, surpassing the US's 30.34 trillion international dollars by 30% [6] - The purchasing power of consumers in China is significantly higher, with the ability to buy more goods for the same amount of money compared to the US, indicating a stronger domestic economy [6] Technological Competition - The economic rivalry is increasingly focused on technological advancements, with China investing heavily in hard technology, achieving significant milestones in 5G, quantum computing, and nuclear fusion [9] - In contrast, US R&D investment intensity has decreased, while military spending has reached a record high of 886 billion USD, indicating a shift in focus from innovation to defense [9] Crisis Management and Economic Resilience - In Q4 2024, China's economic growth accelerated to 5.4%, driven by high-tech manufacturing, while US corporate investment declined by 2.2% [11] - China's proactive approach to managing real estate bubbles and maintaining foreign exchange reserves of 3.2 trillion USD contrasts sharply with the US's rising commercial real estate delinquency rates [11]

On Everybody’s Business, Harvard economist Ken Rogoff explains the role of panic in US GDP numbers. Also on this episode, a North Korean US workforce and alcohol energy drinks https://t.co/ljTy717v19 ...

On this episode of the Everybody's Business podcast, @krogoff joins @svaneksmith and @chafkin to give his take on the latest GDP numbers and why President Donald Trump's policies can be compared to a game of "4D chess" https://t.co/i51n7zR9iH https://t.co/PumBetS8tb ...

每经AI快讯，7月31日消息，加拿大5月GDP环比下降0.1%，预期下降0.1%；同比增长1.2%，预期增长 1.1%。 ...