Economic Data Overview - Initial jobless claims fell to 218,000, better than the expected 235,000, indicating a strong labor market [1] - Durable goods orders increased by 2.9%, surpassing consensus expectations, with non-defense business investment rising by 0.6% [2] - The second quarter GDP growth was reported at 3.8%, significantly higher than the anticipated 3.3%, suggesting robust economic activity [2] Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Despite positive economic indicators, consumer sentiment appears mixed, with CarMax's stock plummeting 25% after missing revenue and earnings expectations, raising concerns about auto loan debt [3][4] - The housing market shows a disparity, with sales of million-dollar homes increasing while properties priced below $500,000 struggle [4] Inflation and Federal Reserve Considerations - The market is concerned about inflation, with discussions on whether the Federal Reserve should adjust interest rates in response to economic data [5] - The current economic environment is characterized as a two-tier economy, influenced heavily by asset markets, with a noted slowdown in consumer spending earlier in the year [6][7] - The cumulative number of unemployed workers has risen nearly 25% from its cycle low, indicating ongoing labor market challenges [9] Asset Prices and Inflationary Pressures - The significant rise in the S&P 500, up 85% over the past three years, is contributing to inflationary pressures, as wealth effects trickle down to consumer prices [11][14] - There is skepticism about a sustained high baseline inflation, with the potential for a downturn in stock prices to alleviate inflationary concerns [16]

AND AFRICA. " OUR TOP STORIES THIS MORNING. THROWING IN THE KITCHEN SINK. U.S. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP ANNOUNCES A 100% LEVY ON PHARMACEUTICALS, AS WELL AS HEAVY TRUCKS, KITCHEN CABINETS, AND BATHROOM VANITIES. TRUMP SIGNS AND OFFER FOR TIKTOK. AND A WHITE HOUSE MEETING. TRUMP URGES TYPE OF ERDOGAN TO HALT PURCHASES OF RUSSIAN OIL WHILE HOLDING THE DOOR OPEN FOR TURKEY OBTAINING FIGHTER JETS, SAYING HE WANTS SOMETHING IN RETURN. IT HAS JUST GONE 8:00 A.M. DEFINITELY TRUMP WANT SOMETHING IN RETURN IN RELATION ...

Debt near 100% of GDP, sluggish growth, and endless spending demands: Five former and current chancellors explain what it takes to run Britain’s finances. https://t.co/04vN8Kq7i0 ...

🇺🇸 US GDP (Q2 QoQ)📊 Actual: 3.8% vs Expected: 3.3%🔑 Fed Policy Impact:Solid data → rate cut expectations delayed💪Strong GDP, capex & jobs = higher for longer🏠 Housing weak, but not enough for easing📉 Short term: Fed likely on hold⏩ Mid term: cuts delayed if jobs & spending stay firm⚠️ Only clear slowdown in labor/consumption = faster cuts ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US GDP in the second quarter had an annualized quarterly growth rate of 3.8%, a significant increase from the revised value of 3.3%, reaching the fastest growth rate in nearly two years, mainly due to unexpectedly strong consumer spending and a decline in imports. The final value of the core PCE price index was raised from 2.5% to 2.6% [2]. - Russia plans to implement a diesel export ban on resellers until the end of the year and extend the export ban on gasoline resellers and producers until the end of the year, except for supplies under inter - governmental agreements [2]. - As of the week ending September 25, the production of rebar increased after a decline, the factory inventory decreased for three consecutive weeks, the apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks, and the social inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks. Rebar production was 206.46 million tons, an increase of 0.01 million tons from the previous week; the apparent demand for rebar was 220.44 million tons, an increase of 10.41 million tons from the previous week, with a growth rate of 4.96% [2]. - Starting from the settlement on September 29, 2025, the daily price limit range for industrial silicon futures contracts will be adjusted to 10%, for polysilicon futures contracts to 11%, and for lithium carbonate futures contracts to 10%. The margin standard for speculative trading will be adjusted to 12%, and for hedging trading to 11% [2]. - The "involution - style" competition in the copper smelting industry has led to continuously low processing fees for copper concentrates, which is the most prominent problem in the industry. Industry enterprises should oppose this kind of competition [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Hot News - US second - quarter GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 3.8%, core PCE price index final value was raised from 2.5% to 2.6% [2]. - Russia plans diesel and gasoline export bans until the end of the year [2]. - Rebar production increased, factory inventory decreased, apparent demand increased, and social inventory decreased in the week ending September 25 [2]. - Adjustments to the daily price limit range and margin standards for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures contracts from September 29, 2025 [2]. - The copper smelting industry's "involution - style" competition problem was discussed at a meeting, and enterprises were urged to oppose it [3]. Plate Performance - Key focus: Urea, Shanghai Copper, Silver, Asphalt, PVC [4]. - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials (2.78%), Precious metals (31.98%), Oilseeds and oils (10.17%), Soft commodities (2.41%), Non - ferrous metals (20.18%), Coal, coke, and steel (13.66%), Energy (2.95%), Chemicals (11.55%), Grains (1.06%), Agricultural and sideline products (3.26%) [4]. Plate Position - Information about the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days is presented, but specific change values are not clearly summarized here due to the complex data form [5]. Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equities**: Shanghai Composite Index had a daily change of - 0.01%, monthly change of - 0.12%, and annual change of 14.96%; S&P 500 had a daily change of - 0.50%, monthly change of 2.75%, and annual change of 12.86%; and other equity indices had corresponding changes [7]. - **Fixed - income**: 10 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily change of - 0.01%, monthly change of - 0.19%, and annual change of - 1.21%; 5 - year Treasury bond futures had a monthly change of 0.05% and an annual change of - 0.92%; 2 - year Treasury bond futures had a monthly change of - 0.09% and an annual change of - 0.63% [7]. - **Commodities**: CRB Commodity Index had a monthly change of - 0.82% and an annual change of 1.06%; WTI crude oil had a daily change of 0.38%, monthly change of 1.06%, and annual change of - 10.00%; London spot gold had a daily change of 0.34%, monthly change of 8.38%, and annual change of 42.36% [7]. - **Others**: US Dollar Index had a daily change of 0.61%, monthly change of 0.02%, and annual change of - 9.79%; CBOE Volatility Index had a monthly change of 8.33% and an annual change of - 4.09% [7].

Market Insights - The China Foreign Exchange Trading Center will optimize the "Swap Connect" operational mechanism by establishing a dynamic adjustment mechanism for quote providers and expanding the pool of quote providers. Additionally, the daily net limit will be raised to 45 billion RMB starting October 13. As of the end of August, 82 overseas investors from 15 countries and regions have completed over 15,000 RMB interest rate swap transactions with a nominal principal of 8.15 trillion RMB [1] - The International Financial Association reported that the global debt reached a historical high of 337.7 trillion USD by the end of the second quarter. Emerging market debt increased by 3.4 trillion USD to over 109 trillion USD, also a record high. The repayment scale for bonds and loans in emerging markets is expected to reach nearly 3.2 trillion USD for the remainder of the year, marking a historical peak [1] - Nine major European banks, including ING and UniCredit, announced plans to establish a new company to launch a euro-denominated stablecoin, aiming to create a European alternative to the currently US-dominated stablecoin market [1] Economic Indicators - The final annualized GDP growth rate for the US in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 3.3%, marking the fastest growth in nearly two years. Real personal consumption expenditures increased by 2.5%, and final sales rose by 7.5% [3] - The final PCE price index for the US in the second quarter increased by 2.1% quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, while the core PCE price index rose by 2.6% quarter-on-quarter and 2.7% year-on-year [3] - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 14,000 to 218,000, the lowest level since mid-July, and significantly below the market expectation of 235,000 [3] Durable Goods and Housing Market - In August, US durable goods orders increased by 2.9% month-on-month, with July's final value revised to -2.7%. Excluding defense orders, the increase was 1.9%, and excluding transportation orders, the increase was 0.4% [4] - Seasonally adjusted, US existing home sales in August slightly decreased by 0.2% from July to an annualized rate of 4 million units, with the median home price rising by 2% year-on-year to 422,600 USD, marking the 26th consecutive month of year-on-year increases [4] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.38% to 45,947.32 points, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.5% to 6,604.72 points, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 0.5% to 22,384.7 points [5] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.33% to 3,780.5 USD per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 2.89% to 45.47 USD per ounce [5] - US oil futures rose by 0.35% to 65.22 USD per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures increased by 0.5% to 68.8 USD per barrel [5] - The 2-year US Treasury yield rose by 4.50 basis points to 3.653%, while the 10-year yield increased by 1.93 basis points to 4.168% [5] - The US dollar index increased by 0.60% to 98.47, with the euro and pound both declining against the dollar [5]

The conversation people are not ready for is that we would probably be in a recession if the tariffs had not been put in place.They were incredibly deflationary and allowed for the massive GDP surge earlier this year.The truth is the exact opposite of what people predicted. ...

Economic Data Summary - Q2 GDP was revised up from +3.3% to +3.8%, marking the strongest quarter of growth since Q3 2023 [2] - Consumption increased significantly from +1.6% to +2.5%, indicating a stronger appetite among U.S. consumers [3] - The Price Index rose by 10 basis points, with headline inflation at +2.1% and core inflation at +2.6% [3] Job Market Insights - Initial Jobless Claims fell to 218K, down 17K from estimates and 64K lower than two weeks ago, reaching the lowest level since mid-summer [4] - Continuing Claims rose slightly to 1.926 million, remaining below 1.94 million for the third consecutive week [5] Manufacturing and Trade Data - August Durable Goods Orders increased by +2.9%, significantly better than the prior month's -2.7% and the consensus estimate of -0.5% [6] - The Advanced U.S. Trade Balance for August showed an improvement to -$85.5 billion from -$102.8 billion [7] - Advanced Retail Inventories remained unchanged, while Advanced Wholesale Inventories decreased to -0.2% [7] Market Expectations - Existing Home Sales for August are forecasted at 3.96 million, a decrease from July's 4.01 million [8] - Costco is expected to report fiscal Q4 results with a projected earnings growth of +12.8% year over year and +8.1% revenue growth [9]

GDP revised higher for Q2 to 3.8%; fastest economic growth in 2 years.Initial & continuous jobless claims lower than expected, home sales higher than expected, core PCE marginally higher.TLDR; economy holding up better than expected, rates are up, risk is down. ...

Welcome to Yahoo Finance's flagship show, The Morning Brief. I'm Julie Hyman. Let's get to the three things you need to know today.First up, US stock futures falling for a third day as the record-breaking rally in stocks cools. However, there is some good news on the economic front. The latest read of second quarter GDP showed the US economy grew at the fastest pace in nearly 2 years.Inflation adjusted GDP, which measures the value of goods and services produced, increased at a revised 3.8% annualized rate. ...